Dont really understand this statement? Could have hit the runway - doubt it - if so why didnt they?
Same reason the Vulcan strikes never hit the runway again - it's a really hard target to hit and the first strike was very lucky to put one on the runway at all. I'm assuming the RAF knew that fairly well. which was why they switched to Shrikes in the hope of taking out the SAM batteries.
The option with higher probability would have been using SHAR's locally - as has been said, about half the Harrier force had radars that either didn't work or they didn't trust, largely down to a very different approach to maintaining the sets. Best option would have been a night attack combined with a Vulcan overhead with Shrike ready to take the SAM radars out. I'm not sure if this was tried however.
Fundamentally, neither Vulcan or Harrier had a *great* chance of cutting the runway but a decent combined strike using the ARBS system on the SHAR probably had a better chance of doing so.
Being cynical, one might take the view that losing a SHAR would have been a set back that would have been hard to handle, while losing a couple of Vulcan's would have been neither here nor there from the point of view of the campaign and in that respect, it's possible that the risky attack on Stanley was handed to the RAF on that basis.
I know Mr Ward has somewhat blotted his copybook with the last twenty years of ravings but he did have a chance to run the numbers at the time and I think his frustrations at not being allowed to put the attack in were genuine.
Ian