weasel1962
New Member
Re:
Just the other day, someone asked me whether I thought Malaysia will still be getting the super hornet (and if that will still include the trade in). So I decided to put down my thoughts on the subject.
- Its been 8 years since the congress approval.
- Actual sales price of the super hornet has gone up. The original approval contract price in FY02 was $1.483b for 18 (presumably including trade in). Its now US$3.5b for 18 based on the Brazilian contract ($7b for 36 in 2009), and US$4.5b for 18 based on the Australian contract ($6b for 24).
- Trade in value of the existing RMAF F-18Ds will have dropped significantly. It was 5 years old in FY2002. Its now 13 years old with little resale potential.
- No business provides a no-time limit offer on a contract which means the offer would have expired a few years back.
Q: Does that mean that it will never happen?
A: No, it still could (including the trade-in). But to do so will need a new congress approval esp as the contract price numbers have changed. There will need a new round of negotiations and possibly some proof of commitment from the RMAF.
If a competitive tender was launched, the F/A-18E/F was not price competitive against Russian suks in 2002, and that has not changed in 2010. So that will explain the requirement from commitment from the RMAF.
Q: How about Malaysia buying next generation stealth aircraft instead?
A: That is a possibility. Malaysia is not restricted from the F-35 procurement. In fact, as the F-18Ds will reach 30 years by 2027 which is the traditional expectation of end of service, the delivery timings for non-partners in the post 2020 period may suit its timing. However F-35 price may end up as a cost constraint.
India and China have both launched the FGFA. Both are likely to be available for export as well. However, in both cases, the likely contractual timings will be ~year 2020.
If Malaysia intends to procure another 1 or 2 squadrons of fighters in the interim, these fighters will not be in contention.
Just the other day, someone asked me whether I thought Malaysia will still be getting the super hornet (and if that will still include the trade in). So I decided to put down my thoughts on the subject.
- Its been 8 years since the congress approval.
- Actual sales price of the super hornet has gone up. The original approval contract price in FY02 was $1.483b for 18 (presumably including trade in). Its now US$3.5b for 18 based on the Brazilian contract ($7b for 36 in 2009), and US$4.5b for 18 based on the Australian contract ($6b for 24).
- Trade in value of the existing RMAF F-18Ds will have dropped significantly. It was 5 years old in FY2002. Its now 13 years old with little resale potential.
- No business provides a no-time limit offer on a contract which means the offer would have expired a few years back.
Q: Does that mean that it will never happen?
A: No, it still could (including the trade-in). But to do so will need a new congress approval esp as the contract price numbers have changed. There will need a new round of negotiations and possibly some proof of commitment from the RMAF.
If a competitive tender was launched, the F/A-18E/F was not price competitive against Russian suks in 2002, and that has not changed in 2010. So that will explain the requirement from commitment from the RMAF.
Q: How about Malaysia buying next generation stealth aircraft instead?
A: That is a possibility. Malaysia is not restricted from the F-35 procurement. In fact, as the F-18Ds will reach 30 years by 2027 which is the traditional expectation of end of service, the delivery timings for non-partners in the post 2020 period may suit its timing. However F-35 price may end up as a cost constraint.
India and China have both launched the FGFA. Both are likely to be available for export as well. However, in both cases, the likely contractual timings will be ~year 2020.
If Malaysia intends to procure another 1 or 2 squadrons of fighters in the interim, these fighters will not be in contention.