Resurgence of the Soviet Union?

[nevidimka]

Larger amounts than small powers (Netherlands etc.) but the capacity is not near such countries as France, UK or Germany (if the latter was willing to do so). Russia has a large number of large transport planes but the problem is with them, as with much other Russian military resources, that they were produced during Soviet Union. After the Soviet collapse the Russian industry has been unable to produce more as displayed by problems with Chinese orders.

Even with 40 year lifetime (comparable to similar era C-141) the force is bound to drop very rapidly as production of Il-76 started already in 1971, 38 years ago, and virtually ceased in 1991, 18 years ago. The numbers are bound to drop.

One also has to consider the huge transport capacity available to other medium powers via mobilization of civilian resources. Consider German corporations such as Lufthansa cargo and DHL which boast much more cargo capacity than most air forces. Granted that Russian civil aviation uses a lot of ex-RusAF planes.

On a related note, I think Il-76 definitely has to be on a list of any "Most important military aircraft in the world" in transportation category second only to ground-breaking C-47. C-130, while important aircraft, comes nowhere close in importance.

Are we really comparing Russia's ability to project force to a country like netherlands? About Falklands, what were the British task force? 1 carrier? naval ships, medium range bomber Vulcan being the major force multiplier am I right? I may have misses out a few.
Right now Russia has a Carrier group on 1 ocean, a Kirov group on another, a Moskva group in another all operating independently. Join all 3 and we get a group with more firepower than the British did IMO. Add the long range bombers, Landing ships, strategic airlift ( which UK doesnt have) and park a few Nuke subs outside Argentina, ad do you still think it's in the category of small European countries?
The British certainly didn't have the strategic nuke force that it could use in the Falklands war. That itself would have carried a huge psychological advantage towards Russia.

I'm sure the latest large scale combined military exercise involving, land/air and sea? assets should have demonstrated their ability to organize and execute large scale military operations.

Sorry to ASFC if you could not understand simple terms that I used to compare russia's ability, which I stated with numbers and types which are self explanatory. Not many countries in the world have the types nor the numbers that I mentioned.

 

[Jon K]

Right now Russia has a Carrier group on 1 ocean, a Kirov group on another, a Moskva group in another all operating independently. Join all 3 and we get a group with more firepower than the British did IMO.

Yes, but Falklands war was 27 years ago and British firepower has grown up too. Royal Navy and French Marine Nationale are both stronger than Russian Navy in fields of deployable assets.

On the other hand, as you said, one doesn't need carrier groups to project power on Russian borders.

 

[Feanor]

Guys the Russian education debate doesn't belong here. Move it to the off-topic forum. It's there for a reason.

Let me sum it up this way. Russia can project force up to the divisional level for a short time period, or up to a regiment tactical grouping for a sustained deployment, globally. It can support this with a single proper carrier battle group. Coordinating the assets required to do this may be more difficult as it's not something that Russian armed forces have ever been prepared for.

However what bearing this has on Russian super power status, I'm not sure. Russia doesn't really have any major interests that need to be protected with global force projection capabilities. Our interests are located primarily within the near-abroad, and within the 2000km range from our borders. Within this short range, we can sustain much larger deployments, and can respond much faster then we could on a global scale.

 

[SkolZkiy]

Affirmative.

About projecting force - of course it could but such operation need great finances - as we have examples of Iraq and Afgan. Russia nowadays cannot afford such operations. If we are talking about some powerful shorttime operation - this is possible.

 

[Feanor]

To substantiate on what I said, the Pyotr Velikiy is in the Mediterranean, the Kuznetsov is returning to Severomorsk (still in transit), the ASW ship Admiral Levchenko is near Tartus, Syria (was in port there on the 23rd) and the Kuznetsov and ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko are in the North Atlantic. Roughly enough to put together a single CVBG if they were concentrated in one place and used together. The ASW ship Admiral Vinogradov is still deployed near the Somalian coast. Also out are an unknown numbers of subs, but that's typically kept under wraps.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20090224/163006604.html

That gives us a missile cruiser, a aircraft carrying missiles cruiser, and 3 ASW ships.

 

[marcellogo]

The point is...

However what bearing this has on Russian super power status, I'm not sure. Russia doesn't really have any major interests that need to be protected with global force projection capabilities. Our interests are located primarily within the near-abroad, and within the 2000km range from our borders. Within this short range, we can sustain much larger deployments, and can respond much faster then we could on a global scale.

I agree with feanor, the point that need to be underlined infact is that we have to consider the military doctrine, the political aims, the geostrategical position of Russia and of any given country as a whole instead of making pointless comparisons.
For an example, long range development capacities are paramount for Usa, because they are separated from any possible conflict area and from their main allies by (almost) an ocean. Russia is at the opposite a hipercontinental about it nation able to move in their own territories its troop over half of the northern hemisfere before launching any attack, european Nato members can at the contrary can instead easily support one with the other (to the point that they now have developed a system for sharing their airlift/ maritime resource), Israel is interested only in self-defence and so she got NOTHING about it .
This has lead to different military forces orbat and doctrine, Usa has developed the excellent but costly C-17 and have a LOT of tanker, Russia overemphasised the tactical mobility and the fighting capacity of her army and so developed the VDV:mechanized paratroopers forces used to be launched directly inside their BMD from the Il-76 and so on...

 

[nevidimka]

To substantiate on what I said, the Pyotr Velikiy is in the Mediterranean, the Kuznetsov is returning to Severomorsk (still in transit), the ASW ship Admiral Levchenko is near Tartus, Syria (was in port there on the 23rd) and the Kuznetsov and ASW ship Admiral Chabanenko are in the North Atlantic. Roughly enough to put together a single CVBG if they were concentrated in one place and used together. The ASW ship Admiral Vinogradov is still deployed near the Somalian coast. Also out are an unknown numbers of subs, but that's typically kept under wraps.

http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20090224/163006604.html

That gives us a missile cruiser, a aircraft carrying missiles cruiser, and 3 ASW ships.

That is what I was saying. That is a power projection force if you can combine it together. And it certainly is larger than what is capable by UK or French ATM, at least by the tonnage of their respective Aircraft carriers. Add another Oscar SSGN and Akula SSK, and you get more capability under water.

 

[roberto]

In a brief answer: No. Soviet Union had close to 300 million population, an empire consisting of Eastern Europe and smaller client states around the world backed by ideological thought which had some appeal around the world until the fall of communism. Despite inefficience it had a number of fields where Soviet science and technology was either superior or practically equal to anything fielded in the world.

In Brief the answer is yes. Eastern Europe was burden rather than asset. Where you find Eastern EU forces fighting on behalf of Soviet Union or giving billions of dollars in hard currency aid. They didnot produce anything on scale to give hard currency aid like Japan/China and they lack natural resources.
and what is Eastern EU economic, scientific, mineral contribution to Soviet Union. The answer is none.

Russia of today has some 142 million population and not very wide fields of scientific and technological excellence. This is displayed by such statistics as Shanghait World Top 500 universities ranking where Russia has 2 universities on Top 500 when even tiny Western countries have several more (Finland: 5, Sweden: 10 etc.). Russian armaments complex has not produced completely new systems since the fall of communism but rather just updated old ones. In the future this may change, but I wouldn't bet on it until PAK-FA is in operational service and T-95 rumbles around.
Russia is lucky if it can become a medium power like Japan, France, UK or Germany. Unfortunately, the post-communist adminstration has not been able to diversify economy and we may see internal mayhem more severe than ca. 1989-1994 very soon.

SuperPower is not measured by Top Universities alone. (which is worth less measure anyway). no amount of intellectual innovation can lift countriles like Italy/UK/Japan/Germany from its decline while all the money is going to subsidizine super expensive Universities and there faculty
Japan/UK are world heaviest taxed and indebted countries. While China which is a third world country has $2trillion in bank and is growing.
Japan/France/UK/Germany are in terminal decline. they cant absorb new large scale population. More over what they are doing like Financial services for UK, Manufacturing for Germany/Japan is going to shift to Asia in massive way. so more unemployment in high wage countries.
While Russia can still depopulate post Soviet Space because of its higher standard of living, lower income tax compared Ukraine/Belarus and vast energy, water, agriculture resources. and very efficient government system compared to inept system in whole Eastern EU. (Most of Eastern EU is financially broke and burden on Western EU which itself is broke).
As long as Russia has complete dominance in Space Launches (hence ICBM , satelliete, space station capabilities), Full Nuclear fuel cycle with vast uranium resreves. Complete energy independence, contorl transport routes.
World best SAMs. hence Missile defence. and ability to maintain and built supersonic bombers, strategic air transport and all aspects of ground infantory, submarines. that alone counts in maintaining strategic balance.

when you combined Winter/Summer sports. Russia is second only to US despite less than half population. so called medium powers like Japan/Germany/UK/Italy do not even come close. They dont have capacity to excel in all aspects.

 

[GI-Gizmo]

Soviet Union will stay in the history books...

The world has changed alot in the last 20 years, former Soviet holdings are now independent and/or under the NATO umbrella, capitalist societies won the struggle. Russia faces major internal problems going into the 21st century, as well as many external problems. The Soviet Union tried to build an empire on military might alone, ignoring the fact that a strong economy is the backbone of power. Russia faces a declining population that is projected to fall below 100 million, the population loss is on scale with a major war or disease outbreak and unpresedented in modern times. Anthropologists and social scientists are studying the epidemic closely.
The Russian economy is resource based and subject to rollercoaster
fluctuation, their defence industry is disintegrating and they keep falling behind the West and even China with modern weaponary. The Soviet Union is in the history books and that is where it will stay. Russia obviously yearns for expansion and growth of influence and power and to be a superpower again, it is hard to fall so far, so fast. Modern Russian weapons are incremental improvements on cold war systems, not new designs. Their space assets and information technologies and networks are not keeping up with 21st century warfighting demands.

 

[Feanor]

Hi GI-Gizmo. Welcome to defencetalk. Read the rules and enjoy your stay.

To respond more on subject, roberto I think you don't understand that the Russian government is extremely inefficient and highly corrupt. Believe me this goes down to the most grass-roots level. While Russia is far ahead of Ukraine (which can't keep it's government functioning, for more then a few months without a crisis) or for example Tadjikistan (which is in extremely desperate poverty) the truth is that it's not all that succesful. Ultimatly we may become a center for reintegrating some parts of the ex-USSR, such as Central Asia (which didn't want out in the first place), or Belarus, there will not be a new super power on that territory within the next 10-15 years.

 

[roberto]

feanor,
I actually use different measurement scale which is more closer to reality for inefficiency and corruption at macro level.
Take for example of Japan. It is paying Japanese ethinic people from Latin america to leave Japan for ever. (Russia policy is opposite)
Japan is growing older with shrinking young people to support old people.
debt to GDP ratio is 200%. It will be like Putin taking $5 trillion worth of loans and nothing to show for in GDP growth. Japan per capita income has declined since 1990. No one can match this scale of corruption. and inefficiency.
Take the example of Jaguar/Land Rover. It is fine piece of British R&D and industrial production . but it is unwanted . whats the point of R&D when end product no one can afford and no one wanted. There are plenty of examples like worthless business schools and high priced bankers produced that are more damaging. there are credit rating agencies that are giving AAA to junk bonds.

Russian efficiency you can see from Georgian war. With in 5 days 70% of Georgia ground was under Russian control and almost 90% under the guns. Tiblisi was only 30 minute drive. with out using any any substational airpower with very low cost.
I highly doubt British/French army can do this in such short time. . They neither has money nor ability to amass so many troops in one place and hold ground.. Infact no one else can do it.. They have also fought wars with very slow buildup. Nothing rapid reaction. Complex weopons are costly to maintain and deploy. so they are not even necessary in most circumstances.

You can see the actual reality. Those medium powers have no influence of there own even with money and 500 million consumer market.. You need actual military might and show of might to influence. not some worthless peace keeping exercises.

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Countries like UKraine/Belarus will become empty shell ready to be occupied and reintegrate by Russia. as most population will either emmigrate to Russia or West in search of better living. You canot continue with incompetence for so long .

 

[Firn]

feanor,
I actually use different measurement scale which is more closer to reality for inefficiency and corruption at macro level.
Take for example of Japan. It is paying Japanese ethinic people from Latin america to leave Japan for ever. (Russia policy is opposite)
Japan is growing older with shrinking young people to support old people.
debt to GDP ratio is 200%. It will be like Putin taking $5 trillion worth of loans and nothing to show for in GDP growth. Japan per capita income has declined since 1990. No one can match this scale of corruption. and inefficiency.

Take the example of Jaguar/Land Rover. It is fine piece of British R&D and industrial production . but it is unwanted . whats the point of R&D when end product no one can afford and no one wanted. There are plenty of examples like worthless business schools and high priced bankers produced that are more damaging. there are credit rating agencies that are giving AAA to junk bonds.

Russian efficiency you can see from Georgian war. With in 5 days 70% of Georgia ground was under Russian control and almost 90% under the guns. Tiblisi was only 30 minute drive. with out using any any substational airpower with very low cost.
I highly doubt British/French army can do this in such short time. . They neither has money nor ability to amass so many troops in one place and hold ground.. Infact no one else can do it.. They have also fought wars with very slow buildup. Nothing rapid reaction. Complex weopons are costly to maintain and deploy. so they are not even necessary in most circumstances.

You can see the actual reality. Those medium powers have no influence of there own even with money and 500 million consumer market.. You need actual military might and show of might to influence. not some worthless peace keeping exercises.

Countries like UKraine/Belarus will become empty shell ready to be occupied and reintegrate by Russia. as most population will either emmigrate to Russia or West in search of better living. You canot continue with incompetence for so long .

I agree with largely with Feanor. It is a bit ironic that you point to demograhics to play down Japan and then hail Russia which has the destinction of shrinking most during the last 15 years...

 

[Feanor]

feanor,
I actually use different measurement scale which is more closer to reality for inefficiency and corruption at macro level.
Take for example of Japan. It is paying Japanese ethinic people from Latin america to leave Japan for ever. (Russia policy is opposite)
Japan is growing older with shrinking young people to support old people.
debt to GDP ratio is 200%. It will be like Putin taking $5 trillion worth of loans and nothing to show for in GDP growth. Japan per capita income has declined since 1990. No one can match this scale of corruption. and inefficiency.

Define corruption. I'll agree that Japan has efficiency issues.

Take the example of Jaguar/Land Rover. It is fine piece of British R&D and industrial production . but it is unwanted . whats the point of R&D when end product no one can afford and no one wanted.

What companies produce them, and are those companies at a net gain or loss? Were they at a net gain or loss before the crisis? You're not providing me any evidence here.

There are plenty of examples like worthless business schools and high priced bankers produced that are more damaging. there are credit rating agencies that are giving AAA to junk bonds.

Except that Russian GDP per capita is very small. And largely inflated by raw resources export. The recent crisis has even hit our currency hard.

Russian efficiency you can see from Georgian war. With in 5 days 70% of Georgia ground was under Russian control and almost 90% under the guns. Tiblisi was only 30 minute drive. with out using any any substational airpower with very low cost.

Apples and oranges. Military efficiency and economic efficiency are two different things. Are you saying Britain or Japan would not be able to achieve similar results? (provided that they had bases nearby to support the effort)

I highly doubt British/French army can do this in such short time. . They neither has money nor ability to amass so many troops in one place and hold ground.. Infact no one else can do it.. They have also fought wars with very slow buildup. Nothing rapid reaction. Complex weopons are costly to maintain and deploy. so they are not even necessary in most circumstances.

What a load of crap. How many troops were used by Russia in the active combat phase of the operation? What complex weapon systems were involved that Britain or France do not posses? And please explain why the VVS performance was so unbelievaly shitty.... nowhere near on par with your typical Western airforce.

Countries like UKraine/Belarus will become empty shell ready to be occupied and reintegrate by Russia. as most population will either emmigrate to Russia or West in search of better living. You canot continue with incompetence for so long .

Belarus is competent, and industrially successful. Ukraine is another story, but don't underestimate their nationalism. I suspect that Ukraine will split in half along regional lines.

 

[swerve]

feanor,
I actually use different measurement scale which is more closer to reality for inefficiency and corruption at macro level.
Take for example of Japan. It is paying Japanese ethinic people from Latin america to leave Japan for ever. (Russia policy is opposite)
Japan is growing older with shrinking young people to support old people.
debt to GDP ratio is 200%. It will be like Putin taking $5 trillion worth of loans and nothing to show for in GDP growth. Japan per capita income has declined since 1990. No one can match this scale of corruption. and inefficiency.... .

Dear oh dear! So many errors.

Japan has been importing foreign workers, not only of Japanese origin, from Latin America (& especially Brazil), but also China, the Philippines, & other countries, for years. The new payment to leave is for all foreign workers, who are mostly not ethnic Japanese. A condition of accepting the money is that you promise not to seek work in Japan again, to stop it being used for family visits to their home countries, & the like. It's a rather poorly thought out scheme to ease unemployment in Japan, which as far as I can see appeals mostly to those who've already sent their savings home & see it as nice little bonus, & those who no longer have a job in Japan.

The Japanese debt you speak of is domestic. It is debt owed by the Japanese government to Japanese residents. The government has used Post Office savings bank deposits to fund spending, rather than raising taxes. It's a surreptitious means of deferring taxation, which will have to be paid for one day by somebody, but it should not be confused with loans from abroad. Denominating that debt in US dollars is pointless. The debt is entirely in yen.

Japanese per capita income has not declined since 1990. Japanese per capita income grew slowly from 1990 to 1996, stagnated from 1996 to 2002, then grew from 2002 until last year. Last year, it was over 20% higher than in 1990. That's slow growth, but not a decline. Even with the expected slump this year, it will still be well above the 1990 level.

 

[Palnatoke]

Russia is not a superpower. Russia is a regional power, with issues but also with the attributes of a super power (noticably the Nuclear force).

In time Russia will recover her old natural status as a major power, it will not become a super power, it's population is simply not big enough for that.
Russia is still recovering from the disaster of communismn, and that will take time, but when recovery has been made Russia will ofcourse be a major power.

Comparing strength with Germany, France and the UK is laughable. Should any of these countries choose to put the same effort into armament as Russia does (f.ex. relative to GDP), you would see force levels comparable to the current US.


And to the guy above that doesn't like east europeans: They do fine, also without huge natural ressources, and they do that dispite someone spend 40 years stealing everything from cattle to railroad tracks from them.

 

[Falstaff]

Take the example of Jaguar/Land Rover. It is fine piece of British R&D and industrial production . but it is unwanted . whats the point of R&D when end product no one can afford and no one wanted. There are plenty of examples like worthless business schools and high priced bankers produced that are more damaging. there are credit rating agencies that are giving AAA to junk bonds.

Actually the crisis of the british car manufacturers originate from the times when their cars weren't exactly fine pieces of R&D and industrial production. The breakdown rates of some former Jags are legendary.
But I guess that's not the point here. Are you trying to say that the Western European countries are on the decline (in your weird opinion) because they are affording too much vain effort?

By your inflationary use of the term "corruption" I have the impression you don't really know what that means, do you?

no amount of intellectual innovation can lift countriles like Italy/UK/Japan/Germany from its decline while all the money is going to subsidizine super expensive Universities and there faculty

I strongly disagree. It is exactly what made and still makes these economies so strong, the expertise in engineering, organisational knowledge, inventiveness and so on.

 

[Chrom]

Comparing strength with Germany, France and the UK is laughable. Should any of these countries choose to put the same effort into armament as Russia does (f.ex. relative to GDP), you would see force levels comparable to the current US.
.

You are wrong on main preposition. Russia's posses military which is far, far stronger than it normally would have for its economic size and military spending. All this is heritage of USSR. And by that i mean not only (and even mostly not) old soviet tanks, etc. But rather old soviet factories, old USSR education, old USSR scientific and experemental results, old USSR experience in developing everything, etc.

Current Russia wouldnt be able to build all this from scratch. Current France or Germany - cant do it also. Current russia military expendures actually are lower than GB or France expendures (both per GDP and absulute values).

So, in short - Russia now in unique situation.

 

[harryriedl]

feanor,

Take the example of Jaguar/Land Rover. It is fine piece of British R&D and industrial production .

i raise you quote about jag land rover to the wonderful reputation Russian auto have that people in vadilivastock had a riot because they couldn't buy old Japaneses cars.
GAZ and the other Russian manufactures have limited sales potential no export chances at all. The fine British R&D is paid for by forgine owners seems to be popular with the oligarchs along with other western cars.

Dose even the Russian minsters even use a national car.

 

[Chrom]

i raise you quote about jag land rover to the wonderful reputation Russian auto have that people in vadilivastock had a riot because they couldn't buy old Japaneses cars.
GAZ and the other Russian manufactures have limited sales potential no export chances at all. The fine British R&D is paid for by forgine owners seems to be popular with the oligarchs along with other western cars.

Dose even the Russian minsters even use a national car.

What part of the phrase "but it is unwanted . whats the point of R&D when end product no one can afford and no one wanted." you dont understand?

Sure, Land Rovers or Jaguars are great luxury cars. There is one problem however - too expencive for what they give for average buyer. Sure, oligachs who long forgot money value dont care and buy them. But these oligachs are quite rare birds, main profit are made from "common" peoples who prefer relatively cheap Toyota, Volkswagen or russian Lada.

Thats said, russian auto industry is an example of mismanagment and corruption, to the extent rarery found even in Russia.

 

[Palnatoke]

Chrom

Russia's posses military which is far, far stronger than it normally would have for its economic size and military spending.

Yes, the nominal size of Russia's economy is the size of the Scandinavien countries summmed up and Russia sure has more millitary than the scandinaviens.

Current russia military expendures actually are lower than GB or France expendures (both per GDP and absulute values)

.

France uses 2.6% of GDP, Russia officially spends 3.9%. In reality this is probably much higher and it seems that the russian defense department alone spends around 15.5-16% of aggregate federal budget expenditure.

Current France or Germany - cant do it also

Excuse me, name one thing, besides oil and the like, that Russia produces that France can't. Infact name me one strategical commodity that France can't produce (I am very close at claiming; can't produce to world cutting edge standard, but I will hold that one).

I don't think that Russia's conventional forces are scaring for the moment, and the incident in Georgia don't count for much. The performance in Cetchnia 1st and 2nd does on the otherhand speak volumes about an army that resorts to cruelty inorder to quell a rag tag insurgency, which obviously gave them a run for their money.