Rafales for Lybia

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European

New Member
Thanks God, the bid was denied.
Libia claims the italian island of Lampedusa has a libian island and some more payments and infrastructural build for reparation of italian colonial period.
One of this requirements is the full payment for the construction of a 2000km motorway linking the libian capital of Tripoli to the egypt capital of ElCairo.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Significant defense needs on its eastern border with Egypt.
I thought it was the other way round: Egypts defence needs on its western border with Libya depend on the strength of Libya. The only time they've shot at each other was when Libya objected to Egypt making peace with Egypt & moved armour up to the border. And the fighting stopped as soon as it became clear that Libya was losing, & promised notto be naughty.

As far as I can see, Libya is safe from Egypt, as long as Libya behaves reasonably. And Egypt is safe from Libya as long as Gaddafi is certain Libya would lose a war. :( A heavily-armed Libya is a danger to both its neighbours & its own people, since last time it had enough firepower to feel confident, Gaddafi got it into a succession of wars, all of which it eventually lost at enormous cost, despite sometimes having enormous material superiority.
 
Dassault denies report of French Rafale fighter jet sale to Libya

"To date, there is no negotiation on this matter between the Dassault company and the Libyan authorities," a company spokesman told AFP.
"This type of matter belongs to the bilateral domain between the French and Libyan governments," he added
Two quotes from the article.

afp
 

contedicavour

New Member
French media are starting to make up news of Rafale sales since Dassault salesmen are a bit everywhere offering massive rebates and making flight demonstrations (one was even filmed and shown a couple of months ago on M6 tv channel).

First, Algeria (which bought Russian Flankers instead), then Morocco with Saudi funding (nothing has come out of this), then Saudi itself (supposedly out of anger of British judges investigating corruption), now Libya.
Ok let's see who's missing :D Egypt ? EAU ? ;)

More seriously, Libya's best buy (and value for money) is for Russian Flankers, either cheap second hand or modern multi-role SU30. With mercenary pilots as in Ethiopia and Eritrea.

From an Italian perspective, since it has been mentioned above, we'd prefer Libya to be able to control its skies (vs terrorist or illegal immigration threats) but ideally with jets that our Typhoons (and F16 ADF since Sicily's 5th Wing operates F16 ADF with AIM120B for the moment) are sure to beat. Hence some good old Flanker with AA-10 would be very good news. Newer SU30 with AA12 would be more of a problem, and Rafale with MICA would be a serious problem.
Btw that doesn't stop our defence industry from proposing C27J transport aircraft, ATR72 MPA maritime patrollers, MB339CD or even M346 advanced trainers and the whole Agusta line-up including NH90 and AB139.

cheers
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Here is the is what Dassult have said:

"To date, there is no negotiation on this matter between the Dassault company and the Libyan authorities”.


"This type of matter belongs to the bilateral domain between the French and Libyan governments”

The second statement in particular, is very interesting.

As was pointed out (on another forum) under French law, contact between a French company wishing to export military equipment and the government of the foreign country, are strictly controlled.

Combined the two statements do not say that the French and Libyan Governments are not negotiating a deal involving Rafale aircraft; nor does it preclude Dassult from supplying information to the French Government in support of such negotiations.


I know I’m being pedantic, but in situations such as this companies and governments are prone to the use of slippery spokesmen who use weasel words that appear to say one thing but mean another.


Chris
 

Rich

Member
I thought it was the other way round: Egypts defence needs on its western border with Libya depend on the strength of Libya. The only time they've shot at each other was when Libya objected to Egypt making peace with Egypt & moved armour up to the border. And the fighting stopped as soon as it became clear that Libya was losing, & promised notto be naughty.

As far as I can see, Libya is safe from Egypt, as long as Libya behaves reasonably. And Egypt is safe from Libya as long as Gaddafi is certain Libya would lose a war. :( A heavily-armed Libya is a danger to both its neighbours & its own people, since last time it had enough firepower to feel confident, Gaddafi got it into a succession of wars, all of which it eventually lost at enormous cost, despite sometimes having enormous material superiority.
Swerve you may see that Libya is safe from the Egyptians but the Libyans may not see it. Anyway I'm speaking thru the eyes of Libya and looking at it thru their viewpoint. Egypt has a large airforce based on the Yank F-16. Add to that they have been under western influence for some time now, which means that their air force is no doubt far more capable then the one caught napping in 1967.

Egypt must have a couple hundred F-16s now and Libya is their traditional enemy. All this translates into a need for Libya to upgrade their air force with quality fighter bombers. On the level of the Rafale.
 

BuSOF

New Member
50 Rafales would make Libya the dominant airpower in the Maghreb?
Really?:confused: Think Egypt, think close to 180 F-16, think of the recent egyptian order for 48 MiG-29SMT. Do I really have to go on? And by the way about our medics in Lybia: we really have big expectations of the european sence of justice and we believe in it, but that doesn't mean that now when we are a EU member we wouldn't dare use our veto rights in every aspect of work of the EU if we see another european country stabbing us in the back. I really don't see that coming. Besides Dassault has denied that, Sarcozy is going to be the next french president and in a speech he has claimed that he will help our innocent medics in any way possible when he goes to the presidential palace. So it's highly unlikely that the lybians get their hands on cutting edge technology. Not only that, they don't despise only us bulgarians, they despise all the other nations on earth. I would rather help Egypt in any way possible than help a country that has no respect for international relations and law acts.
 

BuSOF

New Member
More seriously, Libya's best buy (and value for money) is for Russian Flankers, either cheap second hand or modern multi-role SU30... From an Italian perspective, since it has been mentioned above, we'd prefer Libya to be able to control its skies (vs terrorist or illegal immigration threats) but ideally with jets that our Typhoons (and F16 ADF since Sicily's 5th Wing operates F16 ADF with AIM120B for the moment) are sure to beat. Hence some good old Flanker with AA-10 would be very good news. Newer SU30 with AA12 would be more of a problem, and Rafale with MICA would be a serious problem...
Conte, I hate to be rude, but do you really believe an F-16 is capable of shooting down a Sukhoi, even an older model? That is the best fighter jet in the world, far exceeding F-16's capabilities, except for the E/F, block 60 which still is in no way better. No terrorist use lybian airspace and illegal immigration is NOT via AIR. Even if the other way around the lybian pilots are some of the worst combat pilots ever. They don't fly at night or in bad meteo conditions simply 'cause they can't. Trust me on that one. Our pilot s paid numerous visits in the 80s and 90s during the time we had good relations, they know it. But they would never use mercenary pilots, just because of their (false;) ) sence of superiority over all the other nations.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Swerve you may see that Libya is safe from the Egyptians but the Libyans may not see it. Anyway I'm speaking thru the eyes of Libya and looking at it thru their viewpoint. Egypt has a large airforce based on the Yank F-16. Add to that they have been under western influence for some time now, which means that their air force is no doubt far more capable then the one caught napping in 1967.

Egypt must have a couple hundred F-16s now and Libya is their traditional enemy. All this translates into a need for Libya to upgrade their air force with quality fighter bombers. On the level of the Rafale.
The problem here is that important decisions in Libya are taken by Muammar Gaddafi, so what really matters isn't the Libyan viewpoint, but his. He spent vast sums on weapons in the 1970s & early 1980s, & when it came down to it, they proved to be of very little value, Libyan forces routinely being defeated by technologically inferior, outgunned, & usually outnumbered opponents. He then seemed to lose interest in weapons, to the extent that Libya stopped operating most of those it had, despite having lavish stocks of spares. The air force has spent the best part of 20 years polishing idle aircraft. That's typical of Gaddafi. He has enthusiams. If he's thwarted, he doesn't stubbornly press on, he retreats, rethinks, & tries something else - which he also goes over the top on.

A rational, reasonable, leadership would see Egypt as potentially complementary to Libya, a source of relatively cheap skills & education, as it used to be. Gaddafi is sometimes reasonable, but he has a tendency to be carried away by the urge of the moment, & who knows what that will be next? He could as well attempt to embrace Egypt as his new best friend as treat it with hostility. That "traditional" enmity dates back only to the late 1970s, as far as I recall, & one of the things Gaddafi is consistently keen on is Arab unity.

So I must respectfully disagree. There is no objective need for Libya to arm against Egypt, & whether there is a perceived need depends on the whim of a famously volatile (but not stupid) man, who is currently trying to promote himself as an ally of the west against Al-Qaeda & their ilk. Libya has lots of low-hours, though rather old, aircraft, which with new avionics & weapons could be restored to effectiveness, as Morocco has done with its Mirage F1s. Whether Gaddafi prefers to do that, or try to buy something new, or not bother beyond the currently planned modest upgrade of Mirage F1s (less than the Moroccan one, IIRC), is unpredictable.
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
Conte, I hate to be rude, but do you really believe an F-16 is capable of shooting down a Sukhoi, even an older model? That is the best fighter jet in the world, far exceeding F-16's capabilities, except for the E/F, block 60 which still is in no way better. No terrorist use lybian airspace and illegal immigration is NOT via AIR. Even if the other way around the lybian pilots are some of the worst combat pilots ever. They don't fly at night or in bad meteo conditions simply 'cause they can't. Trust me on that one. Our pilot s paid numerous visits in the 80s and 90s during the time we had good relations, they know it. But they would never use mercenary pilots, just because of their (false;) ) sence of superiority over all the other nations.
Says who exactly? The Sukhoi design bureau? Vladimir Putin? When SU-27/30's go head to head against F-16's for real and come off with a decisive victory when things are "relatively" even, THEN I'll agree with you.

No Sukhoi fighter is the "best" fighter in the world. That honour belongs to the F-15 at present, based on sheer combat performance, alone. The F-22 has proven decidedly superior in exercises against the F-15 AND it is widely considered the best fighter, based on the capabilities it has which are present in no other planned or current fighter. It is also in-service too.
 

Rich

Member
The problem here is that important decisions in Libya are taken by Muammar Gaddafi, so what really matters isn't the Libyan viewpoint, but his.
A trait parallel with what? 100% of the Arab nation? A region and group not exactly known for its Democratic decisions making. Diplomatic ties, and their history, between Libya and Egypt makes for an interesting read. In short, during the days of the Pan Arab dream, Qaddafi sent war planes to Egypt during its wars against Israel. Tho it never helped matters that both Sadat and Qaddafi saw themselves as Ultimate leaders of this Pan-Arab dream, its important to point out that at a time in recent history when the Egyptian air force and Libyan air force could be called one air force, and called so with some accuracy because Egyptian pilots flew many of the initial warplanes of the LAF in the earlier days due to a lack of Libyan pilots. This was also the days when French war planes became such an important asset to the Libyan AF. The French do make a bloody good airplane and no knowledgeable air historian can doubt the outstanding pedigree of the Mirage line of war planes. If I remember my history correctly Qaddafi himself rose to power in the LAF.

It was Mirage-5 fighters that flew in the opening shots of the 1973 war. They were fighters bought and paid for by Libya and flown by Egyptians pilots. I cant remember how many of these Mirages were given to Egypt for this conflict but it was at least 3 or 4 squadrons.

Qaddafi considered the war a failure and problems between him and Sadat started right after. The success the Mirage had during this war really kick started its sales to other Arab nations afterwards. Egypt was devastated economically after the war and soon after kicked out the Soviets and started peace negotiations with Israel, which really widened the rift between Qaddafi and Sadat and is what precipitated the 1977 border war between the two. A war that saw each send air craft deep into each other territory to attack their respective air bases.

Several times since then the two have come close to war.

He spent vast sums on weapons in the 1970s & early 1980s, & when it came down to it, they proved to be of very little value, Libyan forces routinely being defeated by technologically inferior, outgunned, & usually outnumbered opponents.
Nope! His Mirages were extremely valuable and the only real war they have ever fought, or close to a "War", was the incident against Egypt in 1977. Not only couldn't this really be called a "war" neither could either side say they won or lost. The clashes with America dont really count either because no Arab country ever stood a chance against the American war machine. And still dont now.

That's typical of Gaddafi. He has enthusiams. If he's thwarted, he doesn't stubbornly press on, he retreats, rethinks, & tries something else - which he also goes over the top on.
Actually he has been consistent with the one dream he has always had. That is to be the leader of the Pan Arab nation, or at the least the leader of the Libyan/Egyptian nation. That, and the destruction of Israel. Which he says he doesn't believe in but only after so many decades of sanctions by the West have beaten him and his country down.

So I must respectfully disagree. There is no objective need for Libya to arm against Egypt, & whether there is a perceived need depends on the whim of a famously volatile (but not stupid) man, who is currently trying to promote himself as an ally of the west against Al-Qaeda & their ilk. Libya has lots of low-hours, though rather old, aircraft, which with new avionics & weapons could be restored to effectiveness, as Morocco has done with its Mirage F1s. Whether Gaddafi prefers to do that, or try to buy something new, or not bother beyond the currently planned modest upgrade of Mirage F1s (less than the Moroccan one, IIRC), is unpredictable.
Want to see how Arab Dictators have dealt with Islamic fundamentalism when they perceive it as a threat to their regimes. http://www.shrc.org.uk/data/aspx/d0/1260.aspx You probably dont remember the destruction of Hama tho do you? That's because the UN, Europe, indeed the world is a bunch of hypocrites. They have one standard for America to be judged under and another standard for these Dictators to be judged under, indeed the UN even voted Syria to head its Human Rights commission:eek:nfloorl: . Another example would by the destruction of Chechnya by the Russians. The truth is Islamic Fundamentalism, and Wahhabi inspired terrorism, hasn't done to well when its threatened Dictatorships. Most of all in the Arab world, where 220 volts to the testicles is how a captured terrorist starts their day when in the hands of a "brother".

The Libyans see and "objective need" for a strong air force to protect themselves from the EAF. I have outlined some of the history that has motivated them to maintain a strong air force. Anyone, with any knowledge of war planes, would see a threat posed by a border nation, and possible antagonist, being able to field 200 F-16s. The Egyptians also operate the AH-64 Apache as well. Which is a system that can make you hurt bad unless you have some control of the air space.

So I must respectfully disagree. There is no objective need for Libya to arm against Egypt, & whether there is a perceived need depends on the whim of a famously volatile (but not stupid) man, who is currently trying to promote himself as an ally of the west against Al-Qaeda & their ilk.
If I may quote you again I have a real problem understanding this statement. Their air force is old, you say that yourself, and wouldn't even be interesting against the Egyptian F-16s, the current versions of which are without doubt more capable then any Russian made air craft. Just look at the history of Russian/Soviet fighters against Western ones and look at the kill ratios. Whats that tell you?

Respectfully if your going to make such grandiose statements at least research some facts to back them up.
 

Falstaff

New Member
:) That dassault statement is so funny, it doesen't say anything. Given that statement I'd bet a huge pile of money that we'll see some lybian rafales some years from now.

I personally think that the number 13-18 is quite realistic, given that small countries (as far as economy is concerned) don't buy massive numbers of fighters these days- look at eastern europe or africa, e.g. ethiopia or south africa. And the rafale is one expensive machine.

And AussieDigger, I totally agree with you: The Flanker's capabilities are wildly exaggerated by some people. It sure is a massive plane and sure it is a beautiful machine with smooth aerodynamics.
BUT:
It still is a roughly 30 year-old design, even the MKI's haven't heard anything of fused sensors and the sustained turn rate doesn't even come close to a eurofighter. Russian AAMs don't have the best combat record and given that most countries are now acquiring these aircraft which perhaps can match an old F-15C or F-18A while western countries are already introducing Flanker +1 generation aircraft like F-22 and Eurofighter... Well, what else is there to say?

I think that the Rafale would be a good buy from Libya's perspective. It sure is a formidable plane. And the Italians won't have to bother because the rafale still is inferior to the eurofighter when it comes to radar range, agility and battlefield awareness trough sensor fusion...

And do not believe everything you read in that indian and chinese forums... man, these kids are boasting, you wouldn't believe.
 

BuSOF

New Member
Oh, when a westerner sais that a russian machine is crap, then it has to be true, right? Although the only event that comes to my mind is the combined indian-american exercise, when F-15s got a smack. First of all the Sukhoi project isn't that old, and second do you realize that the eagle is older, doesn't have an integrated aerodinamical scheme etc. Could you tell me the types of aircraft shot down by the Eagle, the qualification of the pilots and the state of readiness of both of the factors. And now is there a well prepared fighter pilot with a big Sukhoi bird among them, even a Su-27P, huh? Guess not. Just because of Iraq and Yugoslavia etc. you fail to realize what Sun Tsu said waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back in time: "A battle is won before it has even started." So does anybody here realize that the american economy and not american military wins Washington's wars? Will someone be so kind to remind himself the combat effectiveness the Luftwaffe displayed in exercises flying the ex-GDR MiG-29s or you wont, just because it brings your mere theories to pieces? If russian planes are such a trash then why were the americans do fond on inviting Luftwaffe pilots to Red Flag and to Florida? The planes shot down by US planes recently are not in combat-ready, their pilots rarely make as much as 30 hours in the air yearly. Do you know that a serbian pilot shot down by the USAF brought before court the Serbian AF commander of '99 and won the case, because the plane he flew against the NATO armada wasn't overhauled and the radar was dead. Does anyone realize that everitime USAF goes to war it has a crushing numerical advantage??? So is that the reason for the F-15 to be the fighter king? As for the EF-2000 and the Rafale it will take time for them to become mature fighters, I don't even wanna mention that expensive Raptor toy. The only plane I consider potent is the Hornet and more recently the Super Hornet, so I am happy that our air force officers chose the Super Hornet for our future combat aircraft.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
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Nope! His Mirages were extremely valuable and the only real war they have ever fought, or close to a "War", was the incident against Egypt in 1977. Not only couldn't this really be called a "war" neither could either side say they won or lost.
No, they were of no use whatsoever. The fact that they did some damage is irrelevant, since they gained nothing for Libya except Egyptian hostility. Libya undoubtedly lost the war, since it failed to achieve any of its objectives (at a minimum, to change Egyptian policy, & if possible, the government), & suffered far more than Egypt. As well as probably greater military losses, the damage to Libya from the loss of Egyptian workers was worse than the damage to Egypts from the loss of their remittances.

The effectiveness of Libyas enormous arsenal in their assorted African adventures was shockingly low. A tenth of the weapons, properly used, could probably have won them all those little wars.

Do you see what I mean? It's hard to see any benefit Libya has ever got from any of those weapons. They've emboldened Gaddafi to meddle in the affairs of his neighbours, from which he's invariably had to pull back, having failed - and lost some of those weapons.

...
Actually he has been consistent with the one dream he has always had. That is to be the leader of the Pan Arab nation, ...
I said that.

...
..]You probably dont remember the destruction of Hama tho do you? ...
You're wrong. I remember it well. It was publicised here as well as such a thing could be, when foreigners were kept as far as possible from the place.

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The Libyans see and "objective need" for a strong air force to protect themselves from the EAF. I have outlined some of the history that has motivated them to maintain a strong air force. Anyone, with any knowledge of war planes, would see a threat posed by a border nation, and possible antagonist, being able to field 200 F-16s. The Egyptians also operate the AH-64 Apache as well. Which is a system that can make you hurt bad unless you have some control of the air space.
You've both missed the point, & committed an abuse of language there. It ain't objective, & it ain't "the Libyans", it's the Man.

How big a threat does Italy pose to Malta? Intention matters. History matters. Egypt has consistently left Libya alone, except when Libya has committed acts of violence on Egypts borders. Egypt is a threat to Libyans shooting across the border: it is not a threat to Libya as long as Libya is quiet. Which renders your analysis of the relative forces as pointless as an analysis of the balance of forces between Mexico & Guatemala, unless one is considering the likely outcome of a war started by Libya, which isn't relevant to "objective need" unless you think Libya "needs" to conquer Egypt.

...
Respectfully if your going to make such grandiose statements at least research some facts to back them up.
I tried politeness, but it seems you prefer rudeness. Ah well.
 

Falstaff

New Member
Move to new thread

Sorry for abusing this thread:

Dear BuSOF,

I'd like to answer to your posting, perhaps you could open a new thread and start it with your previous posting here?

Greetz
 

Das Kardinal

New Member
I think that the Rafale would be a good buy from Libya's perspective. It sure is a formidable plane. And the Italians won't have to bother because the rafale still is inferior to the eurofighter when it comes to radar range, agility and battlefield awareness trough sensor fusion...
18 Rafales would dramatically boost Libyan airpower in the region, but it's by far not enough to pose a significant threat to Italy. A matter of numbers, and also support I'd say. Does Libya have modern AEW and refueling aircraft ? I doubt it. That's why "Italians won't have to bother".
We don't know for sure at what distance a Typhoon can radar-lock a Rafale (and vice-versa), and we don't have a clue if Libya would get the AESA anyway.
Typhoon superior agility... remains to be proven in exercises, where the Rafale already did against current-day European and US fighters.
And Rafale does have sensor fusion and Link 16, right now in operation F2 standard planes in AdA and MN.

As for the sale itself, well sure Kadhafi isn't an angel and his past actions were, let's say... not always friendly, but it seems now he's not in the "Axis of Evil" anymore. And given how concurrential (hint : huge American pressure :p: ) the previous competitions were... I wouldn't have any scruple selling Rafales to Libya.
 
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