Also their carrier borne AEC&W aircraft is flying as well, according to the article. They're certainly not holding back.
PRC Peoples Liberation Army Navy
- Thread starter Wall83
- Start date
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
This article is an assessment of the PLAN five year plan for naval construction. Certainly there are some impressive numbers wrt production should they pan out. Perhaps the one impediment is the effect of COVID on the Chinese economy. There have been reports the infection totals in Wuhan were greatly deflated and now there is the possibility the new UK variant might be more infectious thus posing a further outbreak before vaccines become readily available.
Hints of Chinese Naval Procurement Plans in the 2020s
All military forces have a desired force requirement and a desired “critical mass” to aspire toward. What does the 14th five-year plan tell us about China’s?
thediplomat.com
That makes for some very interesting reading and serious food for thought. Taken at face value, that's a lot of DDGs and FFGs that they are pushing out in the next 5 years. The expansion of the SSN build capability is also quite concerning. They will be able to pump those out quickly relative to any other SSN user. Though the CV details are not published, I cannot see them stopping at 3. I Thing that CV003 is already underway and will be a CVN. They know that to operate in the Pacific and Indian Oceans they have to have CBG / CSGs.This article is an assessment of the PLAN five year plan for naval construction. Certainly there are some impressive numbers wrt production should they pan out. Perhaps the one impediment is the effect of COVID on the Chinese economy. There have been reports the infection totals in Wuhan were greatly deflated and now there is the possibility the new UK variant might be more infectious thus posing a further outbreak before vaccines become readily available.
Hints of Chinese Naval Procurement Plans in the 2020s
All military forces have a desired force requirement and a desired “critical mass” to aspire toward. What does the 14th five-year plan tell us about China’s?thediplomat.com
There maybe an economic downturn happening, but that will not prevent them fully funding the PLAN and the rest of the PLA to ensure that the CCP policy objectives are fully met. Yes COVID-19 will have hampered their progress, but they will have worked around it. Don't forget their health and safety, regulations and the enforcement thereof, are somewhat different to ours. The Party doesn't tolerant failure.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
If the PLAN continues with their CVN, what does that say about their carrier killer missiles? Is it they don’t work as well as they say or they don’t think the opposition can duplicate them.
Or field them.
DF21 is essentially a Pershing rocket with a “smart” front end. I don’t see that as outside either the US or a wealthy East Asian nations capability to develop.
Actually fielding them is a completely different story. Japan and Korea have hangups regarding deploying ballistic/long range missiles. And the US fielding anything like the PLA Rocket Force in Asia would be an escalatory measure and whatever nation ends up hosting it would draw Beijing’s ire. So it’s unlikely anybody could actually practically field such systems. Especially as long as other alternatives exist.
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Boagrius
Well-Known Member
Perhaps the other thing to remember is that, unlike the PLAN, the USN has a sizeable SSN/SSGN fleet with which to meet any PLAN CSGs that stray into blue water. The article above suggests that the PRC are planning to rectify this, but I can't imagine it will happen overnight.
Yep, they will just keep throwing money at defence procurement to achieve the type of robust military capacity they seek to shape the region to their satisfaction.
The one that stood out for myself was the LHD numbers.
I was aware of the third LHD nearing construction and would assume more would follow by 2025, but WOW, eight units in the water in the next 5 years.
That's a sprint.
Why so many so fast.
Add the 8 x Type 71 LTD's and 20 plus Type 72 Landing ships and we are talking serious amphibious capacity.
Add serious numbers of destroyers and the supply ships to accompany them and we find ourselves in a very dynamic space.
A scary pace of construction and capability.
Concerned S
The iron ore prices could hamper their efforts, caused by themselves no less ! they are already crying foul and having a good old sook
and as alluded, the Chinese economy is not doing too well at all, electricity production issues, food supply issues, all self inflicted, things for the CCP are not as wonderful as they make out.Wonder what the plans are after that though ? might be pumping them out but block obsolescence will be a major problem for them and then too upgrade and maintain, stagnation in technology etc.
Of concern ? yes, but they are still a long way from where they are pretending to be, in my opinion or course
Cheers
I think that if they put their minds to it the Japanese could field MRBMs, IRBMs, &/or ICBMs very quickly. For example. the JAXA (Japanese Space Agency) Epsilon launcher would make a good basis for an ICBM. Bigger than needed, but omitting superfluous stages would deal with that. But politics . . .
I don't think that it would take the Japanese long to develop and field a nuclear warhead either, if they so desired. But as you say, politics . . .
Agree and they appear to have an abhorrence of them for thoroughly understandable reasons.
Fair comment, they maybe a long way from where they are "pretending to be" but none the less they have already come a long in a short time.The iron ore prices could hamper their efforts, caused by themselves no less ! they are already crying foul and having a good old sook
Wonder what the plans are after that though ? might be pumping them out but block obsolescence will be a major problem for them and then too upgrade and maintain, stagnation in technology etc.
Of concern ? yes, but they are still a long way from where they are pretending to be, in my opinion or course
Cheers
Again looking at their Amphibious fleet.
Go back only five years.
No LHD's and only three LTD's.
Looking at trends ,the PLAN are rapidly building a large world class amphibious force supported by a equally large blue water navy.
I can see a not to distant future where they are not pretending.
Still concerned S
PLAN LHD Update from naval News
www.navalnews.com
Number three is on the way.
Five to follow.
Regards S
China's Third Type 075 LHD Taking Shape in Shanghai - Naval News
Photos by Chinese ship spotters show that China's third amphibious assault ship, a Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) known as Type 075, is at an advanced stage of construction and will be ready for launch in early 2021.
www.navalnews.com
Number three is on the way.
Five to follow.
Regards S
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I would have thought it's fairly obvious. China is gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan. Xi painted the CCP into a corner with his 2049 deadline for restoring the nation (or however he put it), and I think he'll want Taiwan secured long before then as he's aiming to be bigger than Mao. Therefore Taiwan has to be occupied well in advance of his potential retirement. He won't risk his successor taking credit for it.
I disagree. Xi only wants to have the option of invasion — to prevent a Taiwanese declaration of independence (as a country).
The “1992 consensus,” a term former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) in 2006 admitted making up in 2000, refers to a tacit understanding between the KMT and the Chinese government that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “One—China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means. President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration’s refusal to recognize the consensus is tantamount to unilaterally abolishing the accord, former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said.
On 7 Nov 2015, Ma Ying-jeou, President of the Republic of China, and Xi Jinping (習近平), General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and President of the People's Republic of China met in Singapore and came to an understanding. If Taiwan honours the 1992 consensus or the 2015 understanding arrived at in Singapore, there is ZERO chance of war or invasion.
1. Having said the above, we also need to be aware that:
(a) from a JMSDF and US Navy’s 7th Fleet joint operations perspective, Taiwan is the keystone of any attempt at China's naval containment; and
(b) lose Taiwan to a Chinese invasion (however unlikely it is at the moment), both JMSDF and the US Navy lose the ability to keep the PLA(N) hemmed up against their own coast line. Lose Taiwan, and both the JMSDF and the US Navy’s 7th Fleet, lose control of their SLOCs. While it is easy to say that lose Taiwan, and Japan loses the extended island chain defense system that protects its home waters; who is to say that Taiwan is on Japan’s side on the longer term? Especially given the extensive Taiwanese business interests in the mainland; and the intense activity of Chinese agents there.
2. Japanese and American admirals understand the importance of the 1st island chain.
(a) In the case of Japan, they have always understood the importance of Taiwan’s geography (to their defence).
(b) I suspect this is why the Imperial Japanese Navy insisted upon Taiwan's annexation in 1895, and it is why Taiwan contingencies have been an important part of the Japan Self Defense Force's thinking since the 1950s. Naval war planners understand—even if most Japanese civilians do not.
(c) The loss of Taiwan would give the Chinese incredible leverage over Japan.
It appears that the first PLAN Type 002 CATOBAR CV is approaching completion of assembly. This is expected to be completed mid year, then followed by fitting out. The ship is not expected to be operational until mid decade. Work has started on the second Type 002 CV amid significant expansion to the yard in Shanghai to build this ship and the projected Type 003 which will be larger yet again.
H.I Sutton has details on the new CV which he's labelled the Type 003, but I believe that is an error because he's using images of the build of the Type 002 in Shanghai.
H I Sutton - Covert Shores
She's a big one regardless.
Third Chinese Aircraft Carrier Nears Completion Amid Shipyard Expansion
Work begins on fourth carrier, but future plans remain murky.
thediplomat.com
H.I Sutton has details on the new CV which he's labelled the Type 003, but I believe that is an error because he's using images of the build of the Type 002 in Shanghai.
H I Sutton - Covert Shores
She's a big one regardless.
RoyZZConnor
Member
Taiwan battle is not expected to start until 2030s by which time China would field about 10 aircraft carriers. They would give Taiwan ultimatum to surrender before attacking. It's all PR. That way they'll say, well, don't say we didn't warn them.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Ten aircraft carriers by 2030 requires 8 more deliveries in 9 years. Then the PLAN needs to equip them all with modern naval jets, haven’t seen navalized J-20s and the J-31 isn’t ready either. Might see 1-2 CVs and perhaps a CVN in this time frame but 5 Gen naval jets, maybe enough for one carrier. As for a 2030 invasion of Taiwan, with the increasing unease wrt China, the neighbouring countries increased defence expenditures might encourage China to try something sooner.
RoyZZConnor
Member
Chinese shipyards should be able to build a carrier in 2 to 3 years. They have 7 more to go. So 14 years should be doable. While Japan and US might not like the outcome of the battle, it is doubtful they will declare war on China, considering they do not have diplomatic relation with Taiwan and the fact they have a lot to lose economically. Chinese invasion of Taiwan is something they always expect considering Taiwan refuses to relinquish its claim on mainland China and Mongolia and therefore they are always a threat to mainland China.