PRC Peoples Liberation Army Navy

[Beatmaster]

I just did read this topic for the most part and i think there is some really good info there.
On the other hand i am thinking of a couple of things that are being left out or under rated.

Perhaps China does not have war plans, and perhaps China's overall build up should not be viewed as " hostile" or " rival" But fact remains that China does make a real effort in almost everything from economics to global politics to military goals.
In terms of capabilities they might lack out to USN standards and to EU standards, however my question is if those standards are still valid.
For example most wars the US ever fought where on the doorstep of a enemy.
And if you look at China then most of its military is based upon short/medium range power projection and defense, and even with the lack of technological key assets that the west has one must consider the fact that in a event of war that China already is a formidable foe who in terms of defensive warfare can stand its ground and make a enemy suffer on a scale no other war has ever shown before.
So in a hypothetical war or rival war between USN and PLAN i personally believe that any USN admiral will grow gray hairs faster then toe nails.
On top of that the amount of numbers involved is just insane, i mean the US on its own has what? 320 million people? and China has 1.3 billion.
So hypothetical speaking if China would focus on numbers with a average tech then they can literally have the US face so many targets that it can overwhelm the US by miles.
Now as has been said in other topics tech does count huge and a long standing tradition and doctrine does have its impact as well, but numbers even with inferior tech still prevails in many ways.
My point here is China will grow out of control from a US pov and there is nothing much the US can seriously do about it, and while China is growing, testing and learning the western world does decline in numbers in favor of more quality which is a good thing, but that does not change the fact that China does have the infrastructure and the ability to home grow virtually everything that THEY need from their pov and that is imo a very overlooked point.
Because our standards are perhaps not viable to them for their " plan and longterm vision"
Keep in mind that China is one very big engine that with the proper amount of tuning can and will deliver in time.
Now some say a decade and some say even longer but i personally venture to say that given the huge steps that China made (While it was being said to be a bubble ready to burts) it proved not to be a bubble and infact China is doing alot better then most did predict, so would it not be proper to give China the benefit of the doubt and cut them some slack in their effort to raise their standards?
Or would it proof to be a fatal mistake to overlook them and regard them as inferior, because history tells us that every war so far where there was a " inferior" assessment that the enemy proved to be most effective against US and US allied forces.
So imo it might look that China is Inferior but the question is are they really? or do we allow standards and doctrines snowball our judgment?

Thats being said its promising to see PLAN moving forward in their upgrades and stuff which means they can play their part as well in global security and perhaps team up with the US and EU to make this world a better place.

 

[Sampanviking]

Here is a bit more info from navyrecognition.com

Launch of the head of Type 056 Chinese Corvette class

They also give spec for the export model, which I reproduce below.

Type 056 Corvette Export Specifications:

Length: 89 meters
Full load displacement: 1,300 tonnes
Max speed: 25 knots
Crew: 60
Range: 2,000 nm at 18 knots
Endurance: N/A

Weapons:
2x SSM Launchers
1x8-Cell SAM
1x 76mm gun
2x 30mm gun

Interestingly, in Chinese, this ship is called a light Frigate which has led some to wonder if the ship is intended to fill the niches of both the old type 37 corvettes and some of the older Type 53 Frigate variants as well.

I also believe that the Type 056 is going to be the centrepiece of an aggressive push to sell a range of new, high spec, low cost small ships (Corvettes, FAC's and Patrol ships) to developing nations around the world, just as we seeing them supply to Pakistan.

Hi Mods, I opened a thread on this ship the other day
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/navy-maritime/china-launches-1st-class-056-corvette-11959/
but if this one is going to be the thread for any discussion then maybe it could be merged here?

 

[STURM]

Amidst all the debates about PLAN and about how it's steadily becoming more powerful but is still years behind the USN, it is often forgotten that PLAN has no need to compete directly against the USN and has no desire to do. Some people constanly harp on the fact that China has only 1 carrier and a limited sea lift capability but this ignores the fact that unlike the USN, PLAN has no large scale gobal comittments and is simply buying or making what it need to suits its operational comittments. In fact, it is the USN, that is helping China, with its ships in the worlds oceans helping to keep the sea lanes open. Even in its present form though, in the event of a full scale war or a skirmish, PLAN, in conjunction with the PLAAF and land based assets, can still make things very 'troublesome' for the USN.

 

[Bonza]

Hi Mods, I opened a thread on this ship the other day
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/navy-maritime/china-launches-1st-class-056-corvette-11959/
but if this one is going to be the thread for any discussion then maybe it could be merged here?

All done, cheers mate.

 

[Beatmaster]

Amidst all the debates about PLAN and about how it's steadily becoming more powerful but is still years behind the USN, it is often forgotten that PLAN has no need to compete directly against the USN and has no desire to do. Some people constanly harp on the fact that China has only 1 carrier and a limited sea lift capability but this ignores the fact that unlike the USN, PLAN has no large scale gobal comittments and is simply buying or making what it need to suits its operational comittments. In fact, it is the USN, that is helping China, with its ships in the worlds oceans helping to keep the sea lanes open. Even in its present form though, in the event of a full scale war or a skirmish, PLAN, in conjunction with the PLAAF and land based assets, can still make things very 'troublesome' for the USN.

Thanks for that, but based on what you just said:
PLAN, in conjunction with the PLAAF and land based assets, can still make things very 'troublesome' for the USN.
I assume that this resembles the present day correct? So whats you prediction for the next say 5 years? and specially on track with this topic how will the Chinese navy be like in terms of overall capability as the Chinese are seriously putting a effort in regional control, IIE India, Philippines and other regions of interest like the yellow sea (Which is btw a huge pond of water to protect with navy giant Japan to its doorsteps and and a technological sound S-Korean navy....

And you said the USN is helping China to keep its sea lanes open, but how far is that working in the interest of the Chinese rather then the interest of the USN?

Because we all have been reading some troublesome notes from US key officials who seem to have some serious problems with China becoming the next big thing after the US, see my point?

 

[STURM]

I assume that this resembles the present day correct? So whats you prediction for the next say 5 years? and specially on track with this topic how will the Chinese navy be like in terms of overall capability as the Chinese are seriously putting a effort in regional control, IIE India, Philippines and other regions of interest like the yellow sea (Which is btw a huge pond of water to protect with navy giant Japan to its doorsteps and and a technological sound S-Korean navy....

In 5 years the PLAN will have more combatants, more subs and an increased sea lift capability and all this will be used by China to contest U.S. military hegemony in the Pacific and if needed, to deploy to the Indian Ocean to protect Chinese shipping from the threat of interdiction by a foreign power. The PLAN however will still not have the global power projection capability of the USN, nor does it need to.

And you said the USN is helping China to keep its sea lanes open, but how far is that working in the interest of the Chinese rather then the interest of the USN?

China's energy needs have to be transported by sea all the way from the Persian Gulf, across the Indian Ocean, through the narrow Melaka Straits and the South China Sea - all of which are chokepoints that can easily be disrupted, in places where Chinese shipping can be easily interdicted and in areas where the USN is dominant. There are 2 sides of the coins, the USN since WW2 has kept the world's oceans and major sea lanes open and safe but in event of a clash with China, the USN can also deny Chinese shipping the use of these sea lanes. That is why China is looking at alternatives such as oil pipelines and is financing the the building of ports in places such as Pakistan. Keep in mind that China is already surrounded by countries that are allies or are close to the U.S., such as South Korea, Taiwan, Jappan, islands in the Pacific, etc.

 

[StevoJH]

Beatmaster,

Here is the current situation.

Japan:
China is going to have problems if they go to war against Japan, the Japanese have a large and very well equiped Navy.
The Japanese airforce has large numbers of high end aircraft in both the Maritime Strike and Air Defence/Superiority field.
Remember that the combatants that they have in larger numbers, such as the older destroyers and the Fast Attack craft, have limited air defences.
Japan would also have air and Naval Support from South Korea, along with (most Likely) Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and the United States. Depending on the situation, India might join in as well.

India:
China does not have the power projection forces to operate off the Indian coast without suffering a major defeat. India similarly does not have the forces to operate off the chinese coast without suffering defeat.

United States:
Did you know the USAF still has considerably more combat aircraft in operational service then the PLAAF? And those aircraft tend to be several generations more advanced on average.

 

[Beatmaster]

Beatmaster,

Here is the current situation.

Japan:
China is going to have problems if they go to war against Japan, the Japanese have a large and very well equiped Navy.
The Japanese airforce has large numbers of high end aircraft in both the Maritime Strike and Air Defence/Superiority field.
Remember that the combatants that they have in larger numbers, such as the older destroyers and the Fast Attack craft, have limited air defences.
Japan would also have air and Naval Support from South Korea, along with (most Likely) Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and the United States. Depending on the situation, India might join in as well.

India:
China does not have the power projection forces to operate off the Indian coast without suffering a major defeat. India similarly does not have the forces to operate off the chinese coast without suffering defeat.

United States:
Did you know the USAF still has considerably more combat aircraft in operational service then the PLAAF? And those aircraft tend to be several generations more advanced on average.

Yes thats what i was pointing out and what you are saying is true, but i think thats its being overlooked how big China has become in many ways, specially with their mainland covering nearly every aspect of the region from India to South Korea (Trough N-Korea) and thus also having access to Japans backyard.
The only issue would be Australia and Philippines due the logistic issues

Now with their navy being build up and with their numerous " homegrown" projects they will increase their effectiveness with huge leaps at the time.
And as being the largest power in the region, having the benefit of the homeland i venture to say that conventionally speaking the US will have really serious trouble in effective neutralizing the Chinese forces at this very point, no telling how the balance would be in 5/10 years from now when those homegrown products are being sorted out properly. Also North Korea might now present much of a danger but in the event of South Korea joining against China i believe that N-Korea actually does pose a really serious danger to SK specially with the backing of China.
That being said before this turns into a WOIII Scenario my point is that we give China to little credit for what they are doing, and despite their lower tech availability they are a force to be reckoned with and this will increase overtime and getting a much better navy or at least sufficient numbers of middle and 3 quarter tech naval assets will only give them even more capability to ward off any " outsiders" who might come to the aid of those under attack by a hypothetical war between China and ??? specially because this war is being fought mainly in the yellow sea and the direct region of the Chinese mainland where land support might proof to be a really serious factor here.
Now i am not sure how far behind China is in overall naval, air and land tech but their numbers, cash flow and constant developing drive within all these projects they have running it will to start to bare sweet fruits for them which eventually will be to the disadvantage to US support and US policy in the region.
So to break it down, now you got a huge China who has average tech, plenty of cash flow, huge numbers and a ever increasing defense industry at this point, but in lets say 10 years China might have matured to a point where it can match the US in a conventional scenario if it wished to do so.
So disregarding them as being lower tech in favor of all the mentioned nations could proof seriously wrong because at this point none has a real clue what lies beneath the real aims of China's massive jump to regional control.
And their build up of their already impressive navy is a clear sign of their desire and drive to actually pull trough to a point where they feel comfortable, question however is if the US and its allies are going to feel just as comfortable at that point.
Or am i that wrong?

 

[StevoJH]

Two questions regarding china.

How much of their food requirement do they grow themselves? Do they have to import? If they *do* have to import, how many days/weeks of stockpiles to they keep?

How many days oil reserves do they have before they run dry at their current oil level of usage? What will happen to the Chinese economy if they suddenly lose the entire North American and European market for their exports?

 

[Beatmaster]

Two questions regarding china.

How much of their food requirement do they grow themselves? Do they have to import? If they *do* have to import, how many days/weeks of stockpiles to they keep?

How many days oil reserves do they have before they run dry at their current oil level of usage? What will happen to the Chinese economy if they suddenly lose the entire North American and European market for their exports?

Counter question what will happen to the US and EU if China drops them? Keep in mind China has become bigger then Japan in Economy and nations like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, North Korea, India and other players depend very heavy on the Chinese economy as being a world economic super power which is still growing.
While the US and EU are declining, not to mention the fact that Russia would love to screw the US by helping China a bit.
Naah just joking.
But in a sense its true that US and EU need China perhaps more then China needs them, as for food China could sacrifice a portion of their population as they have done in almost every war.
In terms of their food production i do not know much but i believe they only produce 5 or 10% them selfs the rest is imported from the US i believe.
China has to feed 20% of the global population with only about 5% of the planet's water resources and 7% of its arable land. aka China's arable land is about 120 million hectares.
So thats not really a argument in a case of a war who knows what China has been stockpiling besides that their people is used to some sort of starvation specially on the country sides. Not to mention that there might be other suppliers but on that i am not sure.
What i do know is that the US is the grain house of the world.

oil is what? 90 days SPR? not to mention that they will dedicate that oil and their own 2/3 production to their army.
Over 85% of China’s new oil discoveries are being made in five major wells: the Ordos Basin in Inner Mongolia; Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin in Xinjiang Uygur and the offshore Bohai Bay Basin in eastern China.

China uses 9 million barrels a day, the US uses 20 million barrels a day...
If thats what you are asking

 

[StevoJH]

If the US and EU countries stop buying from China (or China ceases exports), many consumable products such as toys will become unavailable until peoduction can begin in Europe, North America or Africa. However remember that many of the factories in China are owned by Western Companies.

With the exception of a few materials such as rare earth metals, these items are not a *must have*, and can the world will not end without them. Even with Rare Earth metals, shortages would only remain until existing western mines are brought back into operation after being shut down in the 1990's.

A closure of chinese borders to trade could have a very beneficial impact on the debt of a few Western nations such as the US where the Chinese own several Trillion (with a capital T) dollars worth of US Government Bonds, if they then choose to default on those bonds or declare them invalid.

 

[Sampanviking]

Not really wanting to get digressed by a p*ss*ng contest, but I think too many of you guys are looking at this situation in way too simplistic terms.

In general terms, if you think of overall national power (wealth, growth, military, etc) as gravity, then China is sending a gravitational rip tide through the region and much of the current situation is really the outward effect of nations being torn from one orbit and settling into a new one around China.

Only last week, The Japanese Premier and South Korean Presidents were in Beijing meeting Chinese Premier Wen for a summit to discuss the setting up of an East Asian Free Trade Agreement between themselves. Likewise attempts to build a formal military pact between the US Japan and South Korea have hit formidable obstacles in the form of South Korea remaining wary of getting to close to Japan. They seem to have no so much qualms about China however and announced last week that negotiations for a bilateral military agreement are underway.

The nations of Asia are moving together in a wholly Asiacentric way.

Back to China's navy and we are now seeing the big modernisation thrust in full swing albeit with still a long way to go.
The line up of classes for the surface fleet is now looking almost complete.
The very attractive Type 022 FAC are believed to be between 50 and 80 hulls in service or production.
The new Type 056 Corvette is finally here with 4 hulls seen so far
The Type 054a Frigate is in serial production with 16 hulls now identified
The Type 052c Destroyer is also in full production with 8 hulls identified
The Type 071 AD is up to its third Hull
The ex - Varyag is completing its Sea Trials

In Addition it is widely believed that up to 4 Type 081 LHD will appear during this decade, while other Indigenous Fixed Week Carriers are in the Pipeline.

I do not believe however that the main threat to US dominance comes from a Direct Chinese challenge. what I do see is a Chinese anti hegemony strategy in which aggressive military exports of low cost gut high capability systems are intended to significantly raise the bar in the cost of dominance globally. I think it is fair to assume that China will be offering more than just platforms, but complete integrated defence packages, including real time awareness and targeting via its own systems such as BeiDou.
This strategy would seek to not only significantly raise the cost necessary to nations seeking hegemony, but also cover the cost of much of China's own defence and research requirements.

 

[STURM]

That being said before this turns into a WOIII Scenario my point is that we give China to little credit for what they are doing, and despite their lower tech availability they are a force to be reckoned with

Chinese strategy is in event of a war is to make it too costly for the USN to operate in the South China Sea and theTaiwan Straits and to prevent the U.S. from achieving whatever political and military objectives it set out to do. Many assume that a war with China and the U.S. will automaticly involve Japan and South Korea but this may happen if these 2 countries are not directly threatened. Now, the PLAN is certainly not capable of meeting the USN in a major battle - nor does it want to or need to - but in conjunction with landbased air and other sea assets, I believe the PLAN can make things very unpleaseant for the USN.

We need to bear in mind that unlike the Soviet Union, China is not interested in exporting its ideology anywhere, is not interested in contesting military U.S. hegemony beyond its backyard and has no global power projection ambitions. The Chinese have a much deeper understanding of U.S. history and internal politics than the U.S. has of China and have not forgotten how not too long ago in history, when China was weak and divided, a number of foreign countries carved up China for their own selfish interests. Now the U.S. can complain all it wants and express all the concerns it wants - until the cows come home - about China's lack of transparency over its military modernisation efforts, China's behaviour in the South China Sea and China's dealings with several undemocratic regimes but from a Chinese perspective [with justification], this smacks of double standards and hyprocisy.

What will happen to the Chinese economy if they suddenly lose the entire North American and European market for their exports?

There are 2 sides to the coins to this. What will happen to the North American and Europeans if they stop importing from China - where do they turn to for similar goods at the same prices? Will North American and European consumers be willing to pay more for the same goods from other countries? And what about the other significant North American and European investments or other economics interests in China - can they just pack up, leave and find somewhere else overnight?

United States:
Did you know the USAF still has considerably more combat aircraft in operational service then the PLAAF? And those aircraft tend to be several generations more advanced on average.

The Chinese are very aware of their defiencies, the huge overall technological gap in technology that currently seperates them from the U.S. military and have planned their actions accordingly to take into account their strenghts and vurnerabilities and those of potential foes. A lot of thought has been given by the Chinese military as to how they are going to engage the U.S. military, they will not play to the strenghts of the U.S. as unlike Saddam in 1990, are under no illusions that thay can meet the U.S. military on a level playing field and win. Also, it can be argued, that apart from the F-22 and the F-35, the USAFs and USNs fighters are not '' several generations more advanced on average'' than the those of the PLAN and the PLAAF. The main advantage the non-F-22 and the F-35 fighters have is that they will be operating within a comprehensive network centric enviroment that will provide them with superior SA.

If the US and EU countries stop buying from China (or China ceases exports), many consumable products such as toys will become unavailable until peoduction can begin in Europe, North America or Africa. However remember that many of the factories in China are owned by Western Companies.

We have reach a point where China is just too vital and important a country to ignore or sideline. Unless the situation really results in open conflict, countries and multi-nationals are not going to economicly sideline China as it would be extremely foolish and self defeating. The U.S. [grudgingly] and the rest of the world have long accepted the fact that China is on rise to become a major power and the question is not if but when China assumes great power status. Hopefully, China's rise will will not lead to a conflict over a number of unresolved issues that several countries are involved in.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rliqptCHZWk"]NWC Presents Robert Kaplan - YouTube[/nomedia]


[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_eqWOYockc"]A STRATFOR Conversation: George Friedman and Special Guest Robert Kaplan - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[Beatmaster]

Nice post STRUM.

Also what should be mentioned is the vast amounts of land that China is buying in Central Africa and securing their own needs in terms of resources.
As various magazines and analysts pointed out China might not have the might that EU and US has but it sure does make a huge comeback.
So that should be taken into account that China will sooner or later develop some sort of power projection to secure their economic interests in Africa and other regions where they become increasingly active.
And you can see that clearly if you take into account their economic cash flow and actual available money to invest in their projects.
So one could argue that both US and EU are sidelining themselfs in the long term.

Now if you look at the navy of the Chinese then you see that they do invest in quality ships and quality assets available to them, (Which are largely hybrids version of older Russian designs) but non the less they are capable units that if being used properly can in bigger numbers achieve most goals that China might have.
If you look at the yellow sea and the direct region of influence of China then it becomes clear that within a relative short amount of time, given their economic rise and increasingly more comprehensive and more advanced units it remains to be seen if the US will remain the top dog.

What most people forget China has a rich history and as a empire and their biggest strength has not been their technological progress but it was their culture and resilience to absorb major events.
In short said the Chinese have stamina and the endurance to fight any foe including the US, and as several others have said China does not need to win in a case of war with the US they just have to make it as costly as possible and that is exactly where they shine.
If Vietnam did thought the Americans some very painful lessons, but underestimating China as a nation will make Vietnam look like a joke, and the Chinese buildup in terms of Naval, Air and Ground units next to their cyber and space programs its become evident China is already a regional power and they are on their way to be the dominant power in the near future, and some might say that the west tried to avoid that in the past and failed .... so what does stop China to become a world power if they would wish to achieve that?

Also in terms of their current projects, military development, research and expansion China did have 3 prime examples how to do it: US, EU and Russia
And it does not take a genius to figure out that they did take note of those lessons which is clearly being seen in the way how they upgrade and increase their military system.

And with over 500+ combat ships and combined support ships a total navy of 900+ i would call them a serious force even to US standards also if you look at their frigates and destroyers then its not that lowtech anymore.

 

[STURM]

Now if you look at the navy of the Chinese then you see that they do invest in quality ships and quality assets available to them, (Which are largely hybrids version of older Russian designs) but non the less they are capable units that if being used properly can in bigger numbers achieve most goals that China might have.

It has been often mentioned that if the present shipbuilding rates are mantained, the PLAN will in the near future have more frontline hulls in the water than the USN. Not that numerical superiority will provide the PLAN with a decisive edge but still interesting to note and highly symbolic. The fact still remains, as many keep pointing out, that the PLAN fleet is not as technologically advanced as the USN and has a sea lift capability that is a fraction of what the USN has but this is forgetting or ignoring the fact that the PLAN does not have the level of global operational responsibilities the USN has and does not seek or need to acquire a global power projection capability.

It would be safe to assume that over the years, Chinese shipyards are building better quality hulls - a far cry from the days when Chinese built ships had cracks in the hulls due to poor quality metal and poor welding, as the RTN found with its Chao Phraya class frigates.

 

[Sampanviking]

Yes the PLAN is modernising rapidly and that given the greatly enhanced capabilities and new missions being set to the new navy that this is more a revolution in military affairs rather than simple evolution.

Remember however two things.

1) China is not replacing its old ships for new on a one for one basis and so at the end of the modernisation process, it will have substantially less hulls in the water (grey anyhow) than there are today.

2) The change in capability is so great that you cannot simply take a crew from an old ship and drop them into the new one and carry on as if nothing else had happened. It is a military revolution and the training of crews to operate modern ships within defence information networks is not an overnight process. The PLAN has not been a prestige career in recent decades and so attracting graduate/post graduate quality personnel into the Officer and skilled technician/rating corps is a major obstacle.

 

[STURM]

The PLAN has not been a prestige career in recent decades and so attracting graduate/post graduate quality personnel into the Officer and skilled technician/rating corps is a major obstacle.

That may have been the case in the past but like many things in China, has probably undergone a rapid change in recent years. There is a rising middle class in China, more graduates coming out of universities and a sense of new found pride, so attracting qualified people into the military may not be the problem it once was.

 

[Sampanviking]

That's very true, but you still have to compete with highly lucrative career opportunities in Industry.

On top of that everything is still new and so the existing pool of talent is limited and not best placed to train new talent to the necessary level. I am very impressed and supportive of the progress China is making, but please do not be blind to realities and the personnel bottleneck is a serious one.

I would even guess that the way that surface combatants have been commissioned has had this problem in mind with many of the earlier 054 and 052 variants being about building the basis of an efficient corps as much at it has proving platform systems. This is why we saw Destroyers and Frigates before the Corvette.

The speed of production and availability of suitable crew will be I believe mutually limiting factors over the rest of this decade.

I think the same problem/method is widely acknowledged in the Carrier programme.

 

[Beatmaster]

That's very true, but you still have to compete with highly lucrative career opportunities in Industry.

On top of that everything is still new and so the existing pool of talent is limited and not best placed to train new talent to the necessary level. I am very impressed and supportive of the progress China is making, but please do not be blind to realities and the personnel bottleneck is a serious one.

I would even guess that the way that surface combatants have been commissioned has had this problem in mind with many of the earlier 054 and 052 variants being about building the basis of an efficient corps as much at it has proving platform systems. This is why we saw Destroyers and Frigates before the Corvette.

The speed of production and availability of suitable crew will be I believe mutually limiting factors over the rest of this decade.

I think the same problem/method is widely acknowledged in the Carrier programme.

true.
But given the workforce and the future knowledge pool the Chinese can draw from in comparison to the US and EU aging workforce and increasingly smaller knowledge pool it will not take very long before the available training and research capabilities combined with their workforce will provide China with everything they need to transform their military structure and society into a career based environment, thus providing the knowledge and trust that its economy needs to sustain itself in the long run, which in terms opens up new fields of research and eventually lead to technological development exceeding that of US and EU combined.
Look at it like a old diesel train, ones it start rolling it goes painfully slow, however ones on cruise speed virtually nothing can stop it, and thats a form of potential that the Chinese are developing on top of their military and economic rise.
China might lack the high tech industry that the US and EU has but in the last years you see this change in a rapid way, and all these factors combined will add a significant boost to their military objectives and longterm goals.

Both US and EU have a huge edge in many ways over China and i am sure that this will remain the case for some time, but unless both are going to pick up speed China will surely overtake them, and from a US and EU point of view this will seriously change the way how we are used to do our business, diplomatics and eventually our military security and planning.
And neither EU or US can risk that.

More importantly is that China shows the initiative to go the distance and to close the gap and that on its own is worth some credit.

 

[Sampanviking]

I suspect that the technology gap is in many ways narrower than many will realise. I think the bigger issue remains getting technology into mass usage and having the human resources capable of utilising them to their fullest.

The West has had decades to introduce and mature these systems and have produced the very obvious mass that production over time will give you.

What we can say is that nothing that rolls out the Chinese yards will be less than that which is rolling down now and that China will have a large mature modern navy at the time when many still cash strapped Western ones need to start replacing their current vessels. This; I suspect, will be the point where a still cash rich PRC will be able to draw even and ahead of other developed nations, especially if they follow the export driven model that I believe they intend to utilise.