I sadly say that the Philippines is not noted for it's ability to unite ASEAN or get it's own military modernization house in order. The US-Philippines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) has languished with the current Duterte Administration until they realised that their swing to China does not help them — the same story of too little, and too late. John C. Law, Deputy Chief of Mission of the US Embassy in the Philippines, said in May 2019 that aside from the security and military assistance, which are already here, “the US government is also providing the Philippines some US$60 to US$70 million a year mainly for the conduct of exchange programs”. In 2018, the US gave US$110 million to the country for the procurement of US military equipment, the biggest financial assistance that the US has provided to an Indo-Pacific region country. The US official said that after the infamous Marawi City siege, the USAID provided $59 million to help the displaced families with their basic necessities such as food, water, and shelter.
More money for naval procurement alone will not solve their problems. Their relevant procurement organisations are not mature enough to start a build fully fledged local plan. And yet they push forward with a piss poor and under resourced plan under the undue influence of the Davao Group.
Well it all come back to how serious and how much budget the Philippines wants to put in this project.
IMO, Pinoys in government talk too much, do too little (in their budget allocation) and have no real desire to build local capability - their procurement process lacks professionalism. As I mentioned earlier, some in the Duterte Administration want to make use of PAL to get
better offers from other parties like Mitsui in relation to a bid to revive Hanjin Heavy Industries and Construction’s yard in Subic Bay, Zambales.
Typically, if you ask a Pinoy, they will say it is the lack of budget that results in this lack of professionalism. I would argue that it is their lack of professionalism (or chronic piss poor planning) that results in poor resource allocation by the state. If the Pinoys could plan, they would have planned more, like 3 to 4 strategic sealift vessels (instead of just 2 Tarlac-class from PAL) or 4 to 6 corvettes from South Korea instead of 2. They are chronically doing less than the minimum.
Thus so far I still see Damen in advantage position.
Hard to be optimistic for Damen for their
bid to supply 2 LPDs. The invitation to bid bulletin, posted at the DND website, also said that the landing docks must have a minimum gross capacity of 7,000 tons. Also, the Philippine Navy requires tie-up with local companies or shipyards so that a minimum of one landing dock can be constructed in the Philippines.
Duterte is also considering a state-backed rescue of Hanjin, in which the government could take a minority stake, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told the Senate in January. But Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez, the head of Duterte's economic team, said he would wait for the private sector to reach an agreement. Hanjin has invested some US$2.3 billion in the Subic economic zone since it set up the shipyard in 2006. Under Hanjin's ownership, the shipyard had built 123 vessels by 2018, including oil tankers and merchant ships, making the Philippines one of the top shipbuilding nations in the world. But slower demand and delays in payments from buyers squeezed HHIC-Phil's cash flow.
IMO, Damen are a stalking horse and Duterte’s economic team hopes that Damen will be silly enough buy HHIC-Phil. It's a waste of money and time to bid for only 2 of a class (because of the endless delays that will come) to be built locally - as there will be no follow-on order. Systems Adict has a post in another thread to explain how ship builders optimise through a build cycle of 48 months.
I'd like to address the 'drumbeat' comments on here & the timescales being paraded / reduced / increased & seeing more action than a prostitutes undergarments on a busy Saturday night !
Firstly, lets look at things practically - For those involved in any recent, technically advanced warship manufacturing projects (Like AWD / T45), the 1st ship takes longer than all the others, as it is a prototype. The 2nd ship will not be as long, but will still be close to the 'stated timescale'. The 3rd ship is where most of the snags / build issues have been removed & timescales can initially start to be 'reduced'. If you maintain a build programme, building multiple ships of the same class, by the time you get to 6th ship, you are probably at maximum speed.
One of the key factors on the actual speed of the drumbeat is the resources available. IF you start with 1000 shipyard workers to build the 1st ship (including all levels of management / designers / quality control / inspection & test), you have about 600 people who are actually 'on the ship' with the rest being office based. To maintain a 'drumbeat, you have to start the 2nd hull, before the 1st hull is complete as a steel-work ship (i.e. ready to be put into the water, with major components fitted, but not really a ship that can go sailing anywhere). That 2nd hull will take about 300 of the 600 available.
As ships are often built from the stern, going forward, it makes sense that the next ship is constructed that way too, as you can take the guys from the 1st hull & transfer them across onto the 2nd hull, as they've done it all before, so will have a good idea of how it goes together & where the problems are.
To 'increase' the speed of production, at this point the shipyard has to take on more staff. The reality of this is that if you want to go from 24 to 18 months you need to find about 300 bodies. Throw into that mix that most large engineering firms lose about 50 - 60 staff a year, between retirement / deaths / sackings & people moving onto new jobs, you will have lost about 200 bodies from the workforce
All these facts start to mount up, they drive drive up costs, in-build issues can appear as new staff do things different from 'regulars' who've been on the project from the start. Then there's the 'Customer Wish List' of adding changes / improvements into a hull as the class progresses. The shipyard will be wary of costs & budgets, so will aim to do 'more with less' by the time they get to ship 5, as management will be looking at reducing the biggest overhead in any major engineering project, labour costs.
The practicalities of a construction project of this type & size, is that 24 months between hulls leaving the build yard / entering the hands of the navy, IS about as fast as you really want the ships (unless you're going to war / have lost a hull from the fleet, due to incident / accident). Building faster means the navy needs to find more sailors, they have to be trained, fed/watered/housed & all the other factors that influence fleet numbers of staff. Population numbers in most 1st world, Westernised countries are actually reducing, as we have less children than our grandparents generation, so there are less bodies available to become 'NEW' sailors. Most of our population is at or over 50, so more sailors are leaving, than the Navy can recruit.
So...
Does it REALLY make sense to go beyond the 24 month drumbeat ???
Rant over
SA
The AFP’s Defense Acquisition System (or procurement process) is so badly broken, no one can lead it properly any more. Their reforms do more harm than good. So they punish virtue and reward incompetence. In March 2019,
Commodore Alberto B. Carlos, the chairman of Philippine Navy Bids and Awards Committee said the Philippine Navy will establish a one-stop shop for all procurement needs of the Navy. To me, this is a joke, if their navy does not have a one-stop shop for procurement at this day and age.
Even if the budget is there for the 2 LPDs, are the members of different Defense Acquisition System Assessment Teams, Technical Working Groups, Project Monitoring Teams, Bids and Awards Committees, Procurement Units, Joint Personal Staffs, and other AFP Units and Offices, able to work without undue influence from the
Davao Group?
Austal in my opinion can still come, if they can modify their Fery design (which they have build so far from their Cebu facilities) for LPD or something that close to LPD design. With 'build locally incentives' in my opinion in can be an attraction politically.
Same reason as above. But at least they are in the running for 2 classes, including for 6 Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) being proposed for the Philippine Navy.
If not mistaken they once join with Raytheon on LPD bidding for USN. However I don't know how far they can modify an USN intended design to meet Philippines costs.
Haha. Long shot.
