Philippine Air Force Discussions and Updates

[Ananda]

After decades without proper fast Jet in inventory Philippines Air Forces seems confident enough to send one flight of its FA-50 to joint Pitch Black 2024 in Darwin. Eventough it is already few years PAF has FA-50, send them overseas, for quite a distance shown confidence of PAF logistical management and pilots trainings.

 

[Ananda]

x.com

x.com

Max say in his X that another source in Philippines Defense circle, info him of potential F-16 Blk 70 (V) deal. Like I said before, eventough he say this is just one source thus not confirm yet, his pages got bias on F-16 then Gripen.

Pinoy procurement process can be more political toxic then Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. All four ASEAN members above has defense procurement that heavily influenced by domestic "interest" factions politics. However Pinoy can be bit more then the other three. Thus just hope this is not some effort to torpedoes Gripen (that seems more secure). Which in the end can push further back their MRCA ambition.

Philippines eyes F-16 deal after joint drill with US in South China Sea - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Previously Chinese media "taunting" Philippines F-16 interest as US Tightening the grip on Philippines politics. Not saying that's true, but potentially US intensifies lobby also can't be rules out as part effort to torpedoes Swedish Gripen lobby.

 

[koxinga]

To be fair, the money (USD$500 million per year, from 2024 - 2029) is being prepared under the Philippines Enhanced Resilience Act of 2024 (PERA), so there is "hypothetical" money on the table. If it is 40 x F16V, even that is not enough.

Joint Statement on the Philippines-United States Fourth 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo, Secretary of National Defense Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr., Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III convened the

www.defense.gov

However, that bill was only introduced in April 2024, and has neither passed the Senate or the House (see below), hence hypothetical/paper money.

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www.congress.gov

 

[Ananda]

Philippines to Allocate US$35 Billion for Military Modernization to "Confront" China

The Philippines intends to allocate $35 billion (RM157 billion) over the next 10 years to modernize its military forces, aiming to safeguard its interests in the South China Sea, at a time when the Southeast Asian nation faces increasing pressure from China.

defencesecurityasia.com

In Theory Philippines prepare USD 35bio for next 10 years for defense procurement. However yes it is still in theory money as Marcos need more political support for this. Besides it is aim more then his term that constitutionally only last four years from now.

The offer previously of 12 F-16V or 14 Gripen E/F seems so far reflect the availability of budget. Thus this talk of 40 F-16 that Max speculate in his X stretch budget availability. Remember asside MRCA, Pinoy also try to get second LCA (FA-50) sq. So if US lobby manage to get F-16V, it is going to be in the cost of Gripen E/F.

Unless Philippines politics manage to agree on the plan of USD 35 bio as Marcos Jr plan. However as now he is already have fracture political relationship with Duterte camp, just don't see they can get more money then already set asside. Unless Marcos somehow manage to gain more political allies.

 

[koxinga]

The USD $500 million per year is US FMF, and that will limit purchase from US suppliers. Their original F-16V budget was USD 1.18 billion, which even back in 2018/19, can only buy a half a squadron. This FMF fund will allow them to cover the gap.

However, 40 units is very unlikely; US acquisition requires them to buy equipment with all the ILS/spares, which adds a lot of overheads. Second, it seems unlikely they will burn all their FMF on just one big platform acquisition program. They are interested in HIMARS, and probably to refurbished any EDA assets the US will give (e.g Island class cutter, C130s)

The Gripen deal will have to come from their own defense budget.

 

[Ananda]

SAAB come big in this year ADAS and bring E/F display. This photo has been circulating on Philippines forums by Pinoy Defense enthusiasts. SAAB clearly offer this as competition toward LM F-16V and KAI already come to join the competition with KF-21. South Korea shown their defense co-op chances increasing in Philippines compare to other market in ASEAN.

However personaly I still see the best chances of KAI is with 2nd Batch of FA-50. Pinoy forums seems diging up more rumours of FA-50 will be part of 40 new Fighters that's being plan. The number that circulating shown on 16.

This whether Gripen E/F or F-16V is going to fight for 24 slots from that 40 fighters plan. Not bad number of Marcos administration able to push the plan.