NZDF - Now and the Future.

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Lucasnz

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Whiskyjack said:
Guys lets not get hung up on the P3 here. We can agree to disagree.

The issue I am having is that in the South Pacific there is no threat of fighteres or long range sam systems being deployed by any of the Island nations that can threaten an aircraft at range. The problems NZ faces is deploying troops to a potentially hostile environment, such as ET and the Solomons. More lift, better logistics and more troops to carry out the role. Together with an ISTAR ability to keep an eye on things.

On the P3 I agree, with above and would add that not to missile equip an important asset (as other countries do), means your are not maximising the use of your resources.

One the issue of an air combat force, we do need one for three reasons.
1. Crete - you can't always except your allies to help out, especially when they are pressed in other area.
2. To ensure troops and ships are trained to work with Aircraft - I note that the 2005 Defence Report describe the degradation of the army Forward Air Control teams as critical. Not so bad for the navy.
3. The government responsibility is for the defence of NZ first and then everyone else.

As to numbers, when the RNZAF was looking to buy the A4's they recomended 18 as a min effective force.
 

Markus40

New Member
Re: The Enemy.

Its hard to say we will and there are already rumblings in Fiji and The solomans. To say that there are none is short sighted. Nz forces need to have the equipment and be ready for any eventualitys should they arise. Simple.





Whiskyjack said:
So what 'enemy' do you see operating in the South Pacific?

I see ethnic and political unrest being the main threats in the south pacific, as we are seeing noe. The most dangerous situation I can see is in Fiji, which has the most capablr army in the South Pacific out side of Australia, france and NZ.

None of the threat scenarios have any modern guided weapons being used against NZ forces.
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #123
nz enthusiast said:
The problems with everything you guys will come up with is money and personal numbers. New Zealand currently has personal shortages in many areas Example many LAVs remain unused and the Navy needs greater personal in order to use the soon to arrive Project Protector vessels. To operate a new frigate your looking at an extra 300 personal minimum. To operate another MRV your looking at extra 80 personal minimum.
I think you are correct.

However the Govt is putting NZ$4.2b in over the next 10 years to address personnel numbers, this is supposed to add 2000 to the overal NZDF with 1500 going to the Army where the QA regiment will be built up to a third manoeuvre force. remains to be seen how effective it will be.

The most pressing issue as I see it is capital equipment, the P3s have been re-winged and structually are good to go till 2020. Mission and nav equipment is being upgraded, future weapon systems for them are also budgeted, my money is on the Mav as that would be a common missile with the Seasprites.

At $300m a year NZ has $3b to spend out to 2016.
$550m for choppers
another $400m to the P3s and C-130s
$250-$300m for the ANZACs

I'm probably forgetting something major, but leaves around $800m, $200m of that will be misc items, so $600m left, or US$370 odd.

Would like to see lift increased with some tactical UAVs to support opperations.


 

Rocco_NZ

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Markus40 said:
Maybe you have missed my point. The "enemy" as i was making and in context with the statement in which i was making referred to a hypothetical situation for an outcome that could become real and most likely in this part of the world.
I have enough trouble following your creative spelling and punctuation; missing your point is a good probability.

Your hypothetical situation is fine. I have no bones with it. To consider that it is "most likely" is a different proposition all together.

Whiskyjack's analysis is far more credible.

The facts of our immediate region are these:

1) It is dominated by water. Only Australia and New Zealand can move between islands with anything approaching ease.

2) Guided missiles, MANPADs, electronic warfare equipment or even artillery don't feature.

3) Any intervention on land will be on our own terms.

4) Any change to our strategic position will not happen in the short term (5-10 years).
 

nz enthusiast

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You do know the Air Froce never wanted the A-4s in the first place. They were begging the government for F-4 Phantoms. New Zealand instead got a deal where F-4 Phantoms would be available for purchase at a moments notice and the Air Force would get A-4s.
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #126
I agree a Strike Force is preferable and I will never forgive the Govt for getting rid of them. But lets face facts, to deploy 10 aircraft requires 18-22 (depending on type) and that would be part of a coalition force.

Who can honestly see any NZ govt buying strike aircraft in the next 10 years? Even the right won't commit to it anymore.
 

Rocco_NZ

New Member
Whiskyjack said:
At $300m a year NZ has $3b to spend out to 2016.
$550m for choppers
another $400m to the P3s and C-130s
$250-$300m for the ANZACs

I'm probably forgetting something major, but leaves around $800m, $200m of that will be misc items, so $600m left, or US$370 odd.

Would like to see lift increased with some tactical UAVs to support opperations.


It's a little more than that - depreciation adds a significant amount of extra spending over the period. I don't capital injections for things like the NH90s weren't included in the announcement. I don't put to much stock in spending forecasts that go beyond the next election anyway :)
 

nz enthusiast

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Even with those upgrades the C-130Hs and P-3Ks will still be a politial time bomb. As soon as them falls from the sky and kills the crew and everyone else on board morale will plummet even lower.
The Ministry of Defence set the services recruitment objects, none of which have been met (not even the early 2005 ones). It doesn't help when the defence force and especially a job in the area is a joke.
 

Markus40

New Member
Re: P3 RNZAF

The same. However there are bigger issues over the arming of the P3 than your hang up over SAMS and fighters in Fiji. I think this whole scenerio has been taken out of context. I would like for you to see the following as a bigger picture for the future of bringing back our air combat force. I would welcome an open mind and logical answer from others who may share this.

Markus40]My colleague has put together a scenario and some questions in this area and i want to answer them as best i can but i would welcome your input as well. Let me know what you think.

What do you see as threatening it in the South Pacific?

Marcus40 Answer: This question is one that leads to other aspects of the P3s operations and current abilities and the geo political nature both now and for the future in other parts of the world. Not just whats threatening it in the South Pacific if a low level war broke out there. First our government use this aircraft for patrol duties working along side Australia with its limited role as our systems are currently on this aircraft are not as up to date as the Australians. So firstly because there are no upgrades militarily we have put this aircraft at risk

The next thing is to load a P3 with Harpoons restricts its range and loitre abilitys dramatically. Its manueverability is effected and operating speed. Especially if the weopons are deployed on the aircraft externally. If the aircraft had inflight refueling then that might be fine. I would suggest that this would not be the case because of the age of the aircraft being very old.

The other major reason why its crazy to load such expensive weopons onto a P3 is that the Navy and Army will require more agile and dog fighting skills from our own to kill assets for the Army in the field and a harpoon alone doesnt cut it.

The P3 is not a multi tasking wepon system that can fire a mixture of weopons for the protection of the navy and Airforce and of course our Army. A P3 cannot protect a C-130 if called upon it to do so.

The P3 is a Survellience aircraft that can have a secondary offensive maritime role working alongside a Air combat force. The only problem is we dont have a air combat force and this alone means that the Australians will have to look after them with their F-18s.

To cap it off with this question to have 6 orions in our armery for the size and remoteness of our geo location is laughable and remember that not all 6 can be deployed at once to hit targets BVR.


What do you see the NZDF doing in the South Pacific? Who is going to threaten a P3 etc?

Markus40 Answer: In future years its likely that NZ will have a greater role in this region and working alongside its allies and the enemy will get smarter and have better weopons. They will be able to afford them too.

The question is not whos going to threaten a P3 but rather the threat will lie within the P3s ability to carry out the operations currently without its offensive upgrades and operations with our allies.

The other thing is that its most likely as well that a Harpoon armed P3 is better kept for Intel and survellience and have a number of Air to ground aircraft operated by the RNZAF doing the mix of jobs that its capable of doing for our Army and Navy. Thats why im in favour of bringing back the Air Combat force as its fast and can get the job done faster. If our boys in the Army call for a air strike on a position then i think the commander on the ground would have to be drunk to call up 2 harpoon equiped P3s.!


Also remember that the C-130 is used as a tactical transport and would be much more likely to be in danger than a P3.


Markus40 Answer: The P3 and C-130 are 2 big "birds" and both are in danger of being lost in a low level war. I disagree with this comment vehemently.


To my mind intervention into a island state, where recon and precision strike of targets may be needed is the likely scenario, but please let me know what you see as a threat.

Markus40 Answer: Sounds like the author of this comment has come full cirle on himself and suggested a precision strike into a island state. Thats why my argument for a Air Combat force with the ability of its mix of weponary to do this job for our boys who need it on the ground and on the sea, quickly, fast and accuratley.

Let me know what your answers are. I look forward to your comments.[/quote]







Whiskyjack said:
Guys lets not get hung up on the P3 here. We can agree to disagree.

The issue I am having is that in the South Pacific there is no threat of fighteres or long range sam systems being deployed by any of the Island nations that can threaten an aircraft at range. The problems NZ faces is deploying troops to a potentially hostile environment, such as ET and the Solomons. More lift, better logistics and more troops to carry out the role. Together with an ISTAR ability to keep an eye on things.
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #130
Markus40 said:
Its hard to say we will and there are already rumblings in Fiji and The solomans. To say that there are none is short sighted. Nz forces need to have the equipment and be ready for any eventualitys should they arise. Simple.
Yes but in terms of a strike force, NZ realisticly cannot afford the infrastructure to conduct operation in these areas. The A4s could only conduct strikes to 400kms, any further and gas was a real issue.

Your posts talk about threats that are just not realisticly going to appear in the South Pacific, even Australia has accepted that NZ is structuring its force right for the region.
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #131
Markus40 said:
The same. However there are bigger issues over the arming of the P3 than your hang up over SAMS and fighters in Fiji. I think this whole scenerio has been taken out of context. I would like for you to see the following as a bigger picture for the future of bringing back our air combat force. I would welcome an open mind and logical answer from others who may share this.

Markus40]My colleague has put together a scenario and some questions in this area and i want to answer them as best i can but i would welcome your input as well. Let me know what you think.

What do you see as threatening it in the South Pacific?

Marcus40 Answer: This question is one that leads to other aspects of the P3s operations and current abilities and the geo political nature both now and for the future in other parts of the world. Not just whats threatening it in the South Pacific if a low level war broke out there. First our government use this aircraft for patrol duties working along side Australia with its limited role as our systems are currently on this aircraft are not as up to date as the Australians. So firstly because there are no upgrades militarily we have put this aircraft at risk

The next thing is to load a P3 with Harpoons restricts its range and loitre abilitys dramatically. Its manueverability is effected and operating speed. Especially if the weopons are deployed on the aircraft externally. If the aircraft had inflight refueling then that might be fine. I would suggest that this would not be the case because of the age of the aircraft being very old.

The other major reason why its crazy to load such expensive weopons onto a P3 is that the Navy and Army will require more agile and dog fighting skills from our own to kill assets for the Army in the field and a harpoon alone doesnt cut it.

The P3 is not a multi tasking wepon system that can fire a mixture of weopons for the protection of the navy and Airforce and of course our Army. A P3 cannot protect a C-130 if called upon it to do so.

The P3 is a Survellience aircraft that can have a secondary offensive maritime role working alongside a Air combat force. The only problem is we dont have a air combat force and this alone means that the Australians will have to look after them with their F-18s.

To cap it off with this question to have 6 orions in our armery for the size and remoteness of our geo location is laughable and remember that not all 6 can be deployed at once to hit targets BVR.


What do you see the NZDF doing in the South Pacific? Who is going to threaten a P3 etc?

Markus40 Answer: In future years its likely that NZ will have a greater role in this region and working alongside its allies and the enemy will get smarter and have better weopons. They will be able to afford them too.

The question is not whos going to threaten a P3 but rather the threat will lie within the P3s ability to carry out the operations currently without its offensive upgrades and operations with our allies.

The other thing is that its most likely as well that a Harpoon armed P3 is better kept for Intel and survellience and have a number of Air to ground aircraft operated by the RNZAF doing the mix of jobs that its capable of doing for our Army and Navy. Thats why im in favour of bringing back the Air Combat force as its fast and can get the job done faster. If our boys in the Army call for a air strike on a position then i think the commander on the ground would have to be drunk to call up 2 harpoon equiped P3s.!


Also remember that the C-130 is used as a tactical transport and would be much more likely to be in danger than a P3.


Markus40 Answer: The P3 and C-130 are 2 big "birds" and both are in danger of being lost in a low level war. I disagree with this comment vehemently.


To my mind intervention into a island state, where recon and precision strike of targets may be needed is the likely scenario, but please let me know what you see as a threat.

Markus40 Answer: Sounds like the author of this comment has come full cirle on himself and suggested a precision strike into a island state. Thats why my argument for a Air Combat force with the ability of its mix of weponary to do this job for our boys who need it on the ground and on the sea, quickly, fast and accuratley.

Let me know what your answers are. I look forward to your comments.
[/quote]

I'm sorry mate I can't follw the post can you please make it clearer, it is really hard to follow I'm not sure what is supposed to be a quote and what isn't.
 

nz enthusiast

New Member
For an Air strike force you really need:
Up to 12 trainers
16 4/5th generation Fighters
2-3 Air Refuellers
Huge amounts of ground systems and maintaince equipment (spare parts included)
Some means of AWACS support (whether you recieve it from nato or an ally)
A wide range of air to air and air to ground weapons

AND then remember that New Zealand has to set all this up from scratch again.
 

Markus40

New Member
Re: Qoute

You are a smart man, just read it. I'm sorry mate I can't follw the post can you please make it clearer, it is really hard to follow I'm not sure what is supposed to be a quote and what isn't.[/QUOTE]
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #134
Rocco_NZ said:
It's a little more than that - depreciation adds a significant amount of extra spending over the period. I don't capital injections for things like the NH90s weren't included in the announcement. I don't put to much stock in spending forecasts that go beyond the next election anyway :)
So there will be a capital injection for the NH90? Thats good to hear I'm a bit worried about how long it is taking. I am thinking 8 NH90s and 10 LUHs.

Any thoughts?
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #136
Markus40 said:
You are a smart man, just read it.

I'm sorry mate I can't follw the post can you please make it clearer, it is really hard to follow I'm not sure what is supposed to be a quote and what isn't.
[/quote]

Seriously I think some of it is my stuff and some of it is yours from other posts.
 

Whiskyjack

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  • #137
nz enthusiast said:
I would like an agreement for 8 NH-90s with the option to buy 4 more.
That is a good idea. 8 only gives half a company of lift at the most. 4-5 deployed with 3-4 training and maintainence.
 

Markus40

New Member
Re: RNZAF Fighters.

Realistically we will need to reinvest several billion dollars to have our strike force back. Then retrain our servicemen on our own F-18s or JSFs. We will need to have the same numbers to make the service viable again.

The second option would be to lease Australian F-18s here based at ohakea. Im talking about 16-20 of them. This would give the Airforce more interoperability between the services and increase our working relationship. Then over time as we integrate our own pilots and invest in Trainers for the F-18s we buy our own, and have our own pilots up and running.




nz enthusiast said:
For an Air strike force you really need:
Up to 12 trainers
16 4/5th generation Fighters
2-3 Air Refuellers
Huge amounts of ground systems and maintaince equipment (spare parts included)
Some means of AWACS support (whether you recieve it from nato or an ally)
A wide range of air to air and air to ground weapons

AND then remember that New Zealand has to set all this up from scratch again.
 

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nz enthusiast

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And you think there is a possible Minister of Finance out there who would be willing to give $3 billion or so while every other department beggs for more money. Spending $3 billion on an Air Combat capability isn't a vote winner but interest free student loans, tax cuts and increases on social spending are. Political parties like NZ First and Act say they will bring back Air Combat Capability, but I wouldn't trust them.
 
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