NZDF - Now and the Future.

[Markus40]

Re: C130 Upgrade.

The C130J varient goes further and can carry more payload than its relative the C130H. The C130J can hold up to 3 armoured personel carriers. You are right, the Army is getting heavier and so is the amount of equipment needed to deploy. Something the Army will want and the Airforce want for Air mobility. If you want stats on this you can go to the following:

http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/hercules/

From a small force number of only 8 Aircraft it is my opinion that this order could and would be filled relatively quickly by 2010. Australia are operating them and so are many other countries from around the world so the production line of this aircraft is well and truely underway. There would be no reason why they couldnt be on order now for delivery in 2009/10.

The 1 Billion is a good investment and a necessary one at that. However if you wanted to do number crunching and if 8 were too many then 6 as a minimum would still be okay. We seem to be doing well at this stage with this number, but as i agree with my collegues on this forum 8 C-13Jswould be a worthy number considering the increase in the need for rapid air deployment of our Army and Humanitarian requirements in the future.

As for the P3 Hmmmm! Alot of money to keep them in the air from the numbers you have come up with and the shallow pockets of our treasury department. I am absolutely positive that a stop gap approach could be made to offset the arrival of new P3s if what you say about the P3s is correct that there are no new ones available at present. Remember the US Airforce has deeper pockets than the RNZAF if they keep their B52s longer than intended flying time. They can afford to spend big sums of money on huge capital expenditure, but we dont enjoy this luxury unfortunatly. I see that the US Airforce in the coming year will trim their B52 Bombers down to 52 from just over 100. I understand that they want to keep the H version in the Air and retire the rest.

I hear where you are coming from, but some things to consider:

• Lockhead Martin has said that the soonest it could deliver a J is 2010, with Canada possibly about to announce a purchase that might be 2011. Upgrade still needs to go ahead.
• The J has no ability to deploy large loads or carry an equipped LAV outside NZ.
• Contract for upgrade already signed and started so NZ$325m, 5 new Js will cost around NZ$670m, 8 will cost NZ$1.1b
• 5 New Js do not provide any increase in lift, with an army that is getting heavier.
• A400, first flight 2008, delivery 2009, so even with a two year delay, 2015 allows time for budgeting, and making sure it is the right aircraft.

Regards to P3:

• Production finished, no new ones available.
• NZ re-winging seen as a route many other countries will follow.
• Cost of P8 likely to be prohibitive (somewhere in the region of US$150m-200m or even more)
• The aircraft is still supported and operated internationally.
• Look at other aircraft, B52 will be 70-80 years old when retired.

In regards to Budget over next 10 years.t NZ$5b (could be as low as NZ$4b) is not a lot when you consider that 25-30% already accounted for.
Just a few thoughts

 

[Rocco_NZ]

I agree, would have been nice to see a few C-130s bought so that the RNZAF could maintain its current strength and come out at the end of the upgrade with 8 Upgraded C-130s. Same with P3s, 2 extra would be nice to see.

We could probably do better than that. The RAF has 10 C-130-J30s available for lease (surplus to requirement due to the C-17 decision). I would be inclined to lease these and retire the current fleet. Place an order for the A400M now and return the C-130s to the RAF as the A400s are delivered. Simultaneously I would be looking to acquire a shorter range transport to handle the less demanding duties that the Andover fleet formerly carried out. A fleet of 6-8 A400s would be a significant increae in capacity over what we have now.

 

[Whiskyjack]

The C130J varient goes further and can carry more payload than its relative the C130H. The C130J can hold up to 3 armoured personel carriers. You are right, the Army is getting heavier and so is the amount of equipment needed to deploy. Something the Army will want and the Airforce want for Air mobility.

Marcus:

• the C13J can carry 16.5ton 1700nm. From the USAF website.
• Max allowable payload 19.9 ton
• A NZLAV combat loaded weighs 20.5 ton Army website

Math says not going to happen. Plus Darwin is 2850 nm away, check the A400 specs and you will se it will deploy in one hop with a useful payload.

From a small force number of only 8 Aircraft it is my opinion that this order could and would be filled relatively quickly by 2010. Australia are operating them and so are many other countries from around the world so the production line of this aircraft is well and truely underway. There would be no reason why they couldnt be on order now for delivery in 2009/10.

LM is committed to other countries until 2010, no spare capacity.

The 1 Billion is a good investment and a necessary one at that. However if you wanted to do number crunching and if 8 were too many then 6 as a minimum would still be okay. We seem to be doing well at this stage with this number, but as i agree with my collegues on this forum 8 C-13Jswould be a worthy number considering the increase in the need for rapid air deployment of our Army and Humanitarian requirements in the future.

However you do the numbers no money on that scale for 5 years.

As for the P3 Hmmmm! Alot of money to keep them in the air from the numbers you have come up with and the shallow pockets of our treasury department. I am absolutely positive that a stop gap approach could be made to offset the arrival of new P3s if what you say about the P3s is correct that there are no new ones available at present. Remember the US Airforce has deeper pockets than the RNZAF if they keep their B52s longer than intended flying time. They can afford to spend big sums of money on huge capital expenditure, but we dont enjoy this luxury unfortunatly. I see that the US Airforce in the coming year will trim their B52 Bombers down to 52 from just over 100. I understand that they want to keep the H version in the Air and retire the rest.

Marcus, once you stop a production line it is tremendously expensive to restart it. To do so for 6 P3s for the RNZAF will cost more than a P8!!

The professional opinion is that the RNZAF P3s post upgrade (structural) are some of the best flying, hence many countries looking at similar upgrades.

It has been extremely cost effective for the RNZAF and give it an airframe with 12-15 years of life.

 

[Whiskyjack]

We could probably do better than that. The RAF has 10 C-130-J30s available for lease (surplus to requirement due to the C-17 decision). I would be inclined to lease these and retire the current fleet. Place an order for the A400M now and return the C-130s to the RAF as the A400s are delivered. Simultaneously I would be looking to acquire a shorter range transport to handle the less demanding duties that the Andover fleet formerly carried out. A fleet of 6-8 A400s would be a significant increae in capacity over what we have now.

Agree, that is a good option, apart from the NZ$325m contractually committed to! But if cost effective then I say go.

What ever way you roll the dice it give the RNZAF time to go for the A400, or explore other future options.

6 A400 will give 2.5 times the current lift.

 

[Rocco_NZ]

It has been extremely cost effective for the RNZAF and give it an airframe with 12-15 years of life.

And that sort of time frame takes us to the P-8, which by 2020 will have had a decent record in operational service. I wouldn't want to be the lead-customer for anything that complex!

 

[Rocco_NZ]

Agree, that is a good option, apart from the NZ$325m contractually committed to! But if cost effective then I say go..

I've got no idea of the costs for exiting the contract. I dare say we would swallow the development cost and if we are lucky just incrimental costs + profit % after that. Option B would be to to carry on with the current upgrade and have some reservists fly them at a much reduced rate. Routine airlift missions can be easily scheduled for the weekend

 

[Markus40]

Re: C130 Replacement.

I see that the first A400M will be delivered to the Malaysian Airforce in 2013.
If we were to now order this aircraft i would assume that we would need to wait in line for others and wouldnt see the first one till 2015. I think thats way too late.! Bring on the C130J.!

 

[KH-12]

Maybe a solution would be to follow Australia's lead and fork out the big bucks for 1 or 2 C-17's while the production line is still open and then retire the 757's, I think the additional advantage of the J over the H C-130 is not significant enough and the inservice date for the A400 is liable to slip as these things do, whereas the C17 is a very capable aircraft and although very expensive would be a force multiplier (could buy a Gulfstream V or something for Helen to fly around in )

I'm sure a C17 could fly direct NZ to East Timor with a few LAV's without having to make multiple stops in Aus on the way.

 

[Rocco_NZ]

Maybe a solution would be to follow Australia's lead and fork out the big bucks for 1 or 2 C-17's while the production line is still open and then retire the 757's, I think the additional advantage of the J over the H C-130 is not significant enough and the inservice date for the A400 is liable to slip as these things do, whereas the C17 is a very capable aircraft and although very expensive would be a force multiplier (could buy a Gulfstream V or something for Helen to fly around in )

I'm sure a C17 could fly direct NZ to East Timor with a few LAV's without having to make multiple stops in Aus on the way.

I'm not a fan of buying just 1 of anything. Doing so doesn't create a capability, just an occasional capacity.

Obviously several things come in to consideration here.

1) What is the likley employment context? If an early entry role, are there going to be suitable airfields and what is the most likley force package being inserted? C-17 is a whole lot of aircraft if the deployed subunit is an infantry company.

2) What is the opportunity cost? A 757 costs as much to run each year as a medium size ship. The same money that purchases a C-17 could buy 3 MRVs. Australia''s 3 or 4 aicraft C-17 package is costing them as much as their pair of LHDs.

3) What is the ongoing support requirement? C-17s might be easier to maintain than a ship, but are C-17s needed to sustain whatever force we have delployed? 50-odd tonnes of cargo capacity is a lot for the weekly supply run for a battalion in Timor for example.

 

[Markus40]

Re: C130J upgrade.

Im wondering then how does the current C-130H manages to get to Darwin.?
The C130J-30 varient has a max range of approx 2500 Miles with a 35000 kilo load. Please read the stats on the following:

http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=92

You make mention that there is no money for 5 years. Who said? Are you in Treasury? If the money tap can be turned on, it can if they want too, and it certainly can be funded from the existing money the government has allocated for extra spending. Not say they will, but no one can say they cant either.

Dont get me wrong i am in favour of the A400M and i think it has the specs thats needed for NZ, but i also believe that the C130J-30 can do the same job. Its interesting to note that the current Squadron of C130s cant fit the LAV in any case. From what i understand the NZ Governemnt bought the LAV without checking to see if they would fit in the Herc. So now the government has concentrated at this point on having the LAV moved by sea.

I think you missed my point about the P3, sorry. I did suggest "similar" and wasnt suggesting opening the line to restart the p3 just for the RNZAF. I think you suggested that. What i am thinking about is the Canadian Aurora. An aircraft that is perfect for NZ needs. Heres the link for your info:

http://www.forceaerienne.forces.gc.ca/equip/cp-140/intro_e.asp

Marcus:

• the C13J can carry 16.5ton 1700nm. From the USAF website.
• Max allowable payload 19.9 ton
• A NZLAV combat loaded weighs 20.5 ton Army website

Math says not going to happen. Plus Darwin is 2850 nm away, check the A400 specs and you will se it will deploy in one hop with a useful payload.



LM is committed to other countries until 2010, no spare capacity.



However you do the numbers no money on that scale for 5 years.




Marcus, once you stop a production line it is tremendously expensive to restart it. To do so for 6 P3s for the RNZAF will cost more than a P8!!

The professional opinion is that the RNZAF P3s post upgrade (structural) are some of the best flying, hence many countries looking at similar upgrades.

It has been extremely cost effective for the RNZAF and give it an airframe with 12-15 years of life.

 

[Rocco_NZ]

The C130J-30 varient has a max range of approx 2500 Miles with a 35000 kilo load. Please read the stats on the following:

http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=92

Pounds and kilograms aren't the same thing.

Its interesting to note that the current Squadron of C130s cant fit the LAV in any case. From what i understand the NZ Governemnt bought the LAV without checking to see if they would fit in the Herc. So now the government has concentrated at this point on having the LAV moved by sea.

Really? I wonder who forgot to tell the loadmaster in this photo http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/0404/950db4143d99c1e6f48a.jpeg

 

[mug]

Also have a look at the NZ Army page:

http://www.army.mil.nz/?CHANNEL=LAV+III&PAGE=NZLAVIII+%2D+Questions+and+Answers

Specifically:

Is the NZLAV portable in a C130 Hercules?

An RNZAF C130 will be able to carry one NZLAV simply by lowering the LAV suspension.

 

[Markus40]

Re: C130 and LAV3

The Photo? Thats after the load master realised he couldnt get it in once he had it loaded half way.!

As the load factor on the C130J-30? I think ive made my point.

Pounds and kilograms aren't the same thing.



Really? I wonder who forgot to tell the loadmaster in this photo http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/0404/950db4143d99c1e6f48a.jpeg

 

[Markus40]

Re: NZ Army

Good stats from the NZ Army site. Thank you. That would make the LAV a logistical nightmare having to load and unload the Vehicle, taking the suspension down. Does anyone other than the "kids" we have on this forum know how this is done?

Im sure the Army must realise this problem. Thats why they are concentrating now on having everything moved by sea once we get our hands on our MRV. Does nothing for our forces on our way to SE Asia somewhere and in 4 days time they have to come home because they are no longer needed as the war was over.

Also have a look at the NZ Army page:

http://www.army.mil.nz/?CHANNEL=LAV+III&PAGE=NZLAVIII+%2D+Questions+and+Answers

Specifically:

 

[Rocco_NZ]

That would make the LAV a logistical nightmare having to load and unload the Vehicle, taking the suspension down.

-----
Logistics n.

The aspect of military operations that deals with the procurement, distribution, maintenance, and replacement of materiel and personnel.
--------

I'm not sure that adjusting the tire pressure gauge in the drivers compartment is too onerous. Unbolting a radio aerial and removing the wire cutters isn't hard either.

The issue is more about range. A LAV is right on the limit of what a C-130H can haul. Even then it can't haul it any great distance.

 

[Markus40]

Re: LAV On C130

Can anyone give me a straight answer or advise as to whats invloved in taking the Suspension down on a LAV to get it in the C130H. Does this mean taking the wheel off, or dismantling the suspension bridge, or taking the air out of the tyres. I would be interested to know. Thank you.

 

[Whiskyjack]

Im wondering then how does the current C-130H manages to get to Darwin.?
The C130J-30 varient has a max range of approx 2500 Miles with a 35000 kilo load. Please read the stats on the following:

http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=92

You make mention that there is no money for 5 years. Who said? Are you in Treasury? If the money tap can be turned on, it can if they want too, and it certainly can be funded from the existing money the government has allocated for extra spending. Not say they will, but no one can say they cant either.

Dont get me wrong i am in favour of the A400M and i think it has the specs thats needed for NZ, but i also believe that the C130J-30 can do the same job. Its interesting to note that the current Squadron of C130s cant fit the LAV in any case. From what i understand the NZ Governemnt bought the LAV without checking to see if they would fit in the Herc. So now the government has concentrated at this point on having the LAV moved by sea.

I think you missed my point about the P3, sorry. I did suggest "similar" and wasnt suggesting opening the line to restart the p3 just for the RNZAF. I think you suggested that. What i am thinking about is the Canadian Aurora. An aircraft that is perfect for NZ needs. Heres the link for your info:

http://www.forceaerienne.forces.gc.ca/equip/cp-140/intro_e.asp

Marcus the C-130, will stop off once or twice on route to Darwin, with a 12ton load. Costly and long. I think someone else has posted that the 35000kg you mention is actually pounds.

Given that the Govt has funded the C-130 upgrade why would they fund new Js? I think it a good idea to wait. As you have pointed out the A400 may not be available, but it at leasts give the RNZAF the opportunity to shop around.

Finally mate, you are killing me here, the Aurora is a P3!!! last one rolled off the LM production line 15 years ago! The only four engine western long range aircraft in existence are the P3 (by many names) and the RAF Nimrod. The only one in development is the P8 and I think the UK will come up with the Nimrod if enough people are interested, they offered it to the USN.

 

[KH-12]

My understanding was that the C130J was given serious consideration prior to the go ahead for the upgrade. There should be no reason why the rebuilt A/C should'nt be just as reliable as a new build C130J.

http://www.spar.ca/spar_solution.htm

 

[Markus40]

Okay so we extend the life of the C130H as its now too late to do anything different at this point. So we could convert one C130 for a tanker role (Drogue) and convert the other C130s to be outfitted with refuelling probes .This would solve the current air transport issues we have till we replace them. This would mean a direct flight to Darwin instead of a route via Richmond or Amberley.

Marcus the C-130, will stop off once or twice on route to Darwin, with a 12ton load. Costly and long. I think someone else has posted that the 35000kg you mention is actually pounds.

Given that the Govt has funded the C-130 upgrade why would they fund new Js? I think it a good idea to wait. As you have pointed out the A400 may not be available, but it at leasts give the RNZAF the opportunity to shop around.

Finally mate, you are killing me here, the Aurora is a P3!!! last one rolled off the LM production line 15 years ago! The only four engine western long range aircraft in existence are the P3 (by many names) and the RAF Nimrod. The only one in development is the P8 and I think the UK will come up with the Nimrod if enough people are interested, they offered it to the USN.

 

[Aussie Digger]

Can anyone give me a straight answer or advise as to whats invloved in taking the Suspension down on a LAV to get it in the C130H. Does this mean taking the wheel off, or dismantling the suspension bridge, or taking the air out of the tyres. I would be interested to know. Thank you.

The LAVIII has an internal system that allows the height and tyre pressures of the vehicle to be lowered, at the "flick" of a switch. Other mods necessary to fit the vehicle into a C-130 include having no more than half a tank of fuel, no ammo, external aerials, stores etc.

All up it reputedly takes about 30mins max to prepare the vehicle for operations once it has been flown somewhere, inside a C-130. The RNZAF have demonstrated this, specifically to refute the speculation about it.

Of course they didn't release the range figures for the C-130 once it was loaded with an NZLAV (because it would show that there is practically no ability to fly once one is loaded) but it CAN be done. "Would" be done is a completely different matter.

Markus, although LM has kept the production line tooling etc for the P-3, it would be extremely costly to set up production again. An order for 5-6 new builds is unlikely to be economically viable.

As to the C-130 issue. The RAAF's C-130J-30 (-30 denotes extended variant) cannot carry heavier (theoretical) loads than a C-130J, OR C-130H for that matter.

What it provides is greater room, ie: usable space. The non -30 variants run out of space before they run out of lift capacity, the fuselage extension rectifies this situation, allowing the C-130 to carry the loads it could theoretically carry, but can't due to stumpy fuselage syndrome, if that makes sense???