downunderblue
Member
I saw it mentioned earlier so I just reviewed NZ's 2019 Defence Capability Plan.
I love a document I can tear apart. Most of these types of documents like to say a lot (48 pages) without really saying much in a Yes, Minister kinda way, but you can analyse the document to identify priorities etc.
I first checked and the word 'Pacific' is mentioned 74 times in the DCP.
The word Antarctic is referenced twelve times.
The word Asia is referenced four times, albeit always with the joint reference 'Asia-Pacific'.
Rules based order is referenced 11 times. Australia is mentioned six times, (the UN three times) but the only other countries mentioned are:
I also then checked Australia's 2024 National Defence Strategy and applied the same test, with the following results:
Now they are not quite apples vs apples but it’s fair to say that the NZ document lacks a some ambition, is a little timid about mentioning any likely threats (for fear of upseting or locking people in?) and for me is completely looking the wrong way. The strategic focus is clearly NZ and the Pacific (and the Antarctic), without the blindingly obvious conclusion that the greatest threat to the Pacific and NZ will evolve from Asia (let’s put Climate Change to one side just for now ... even then China IS the worlds largest polluter (32.88% of world) three times over but I don't hear that fact in any Pacific leaders forum communique ... yes I digress, sorry).
I welcome some of you from NZ to read the AU documents if you haven't already. They IMO are realistic and incredibly valuable. They don't go to insult anyone nor lock a government into any specific action, but they do acknowledge the strategic deterioration and threats to our nations security. They are important documents and publically divulge the reality and challenges we now face as a country.
The starkness of the differing focus in the two countries is highlighted in the AU conclusions. In 2023 Australia concluded (and announced) that they no longer have the luxury of a ten-year window of strategic warning time for conflict. The AU 2023 National Defence Statement and Defence Strategic Review noted that:
To sum up. I think there is massive value in NZ publishing a more up to date defence strategic plan. Yes we hate documents for documents sake but the existing NZ strategy/plan is out of date, focused incorrectly and for me negligently wrong. This leads to political and policy indecision, ambiguity and the complacency where I believe you now sit, and it wont change until some truths are exposed for all to see.
If NZ made similar strategic conclusions as Australia did (listed above) and was open enough to say it, then there would be clear public safety reasons to increased defence expenditure and preparedness. The document could outline an appropriate strategy to counter any threat (area denial/ whatever or joint deterant etc), and calls for increased expenditure could be specifically targeted to meet the capability need required. The temptation to ignore (and not mention) ‘China’ will exist. I know many will think it will alienate, affect trade etc, but why on earth would anyone ignore the 200kg male gorilla in the room when their very co-existence, size/ capability, power structure and regional ambition is a clear for all to see. Given the first responsibility of government is to provide for the safety and security of its people, to ignore the existence of a big gorilla would be not only insane but near criminal.
Now you will still have politicians arguing one way or another, but to publicly acknowledge what we all know to be a massive issue will inform public debate, prepare them for spending increases and potentially force the arm of whoever is next in power to meet/ commit bipartisanly to that need. My contention though is the existing document is way out of date (was when it was published tbh), and to fix an issue you must first outline an effective strategy, declared direction and means in which to achieve that strategy.
Am I wrong here? We all know much more needs to be done, but until its said and decided (where you're at/ need to be), it’s too easy for politicians to sit on the fence and look the other way (not my problem etc).
I love a document I can tear apart. Most of these types of documents like to say a lot (48 pages) without really saying much in a Yes, Minister kinda way, but you can analyse the document to identify priorities etc.
I first checked and the word 'Pacific' is mentioned 74 times in the DCP.
The word Antarctic is referenced twelve times.
The word Asia is referenced four times, albeit always with the joint reference 'Asia-Pacific'.
Rules based order is referenced 11 times. Australia is mentioned six times, (the UN three times) but the only other countries mentioned are:
- Fiji (once, but in the credits of a pic about fisheries patrol which tbf doesn’t count for much (Sorry Suva)).
- US and the UK (once each but in the same discussion about training with partners who also operate the P-8).
I also then checked Australia's 2024 National Defence Strategy and applied the same test, with the following results:
- 'Pacific' is mentioned 61 times, albeit in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ framing. When searching for the word individually, I found it was used 19 times within the 61 total;
- Antarctic is not referenced at all;
- The word Asia is referenced eleven times, however to be fair the term Indo-Pacific is in vogue now clearly and East Asia is really the lights flashing, big scary part of that Indo-Pacific remit., or at least that’s what I’d assume Admiral Paparo would say.
- Of interest, the following countries are directly referenced:
- China is mentioned 18 times;
- India is referenced 11 times;
- Japan, 10 times;
- New Zealand six times (albeit once only in a solitary reference);
- Russia seven times;
- ROK and Singapore four times each;
- North Korea three times; and
- Philippines and Indonesia, twice each.
Now they are not quite apples vs apples but it’s fair to say that the NZ document lacks a some ambition, is a little timid about mentioning any likely threats (for fear of upseting or locking people in?) and for me is completely looking the wrong way. The strategic focus is clearly NZ and the Pacific (and the Antarctic), without the blindingly obvious conclusion that the greatest threat to the Pacific and NZ will evolve from Asia (let’s put Climate Change to one side just for now ... even then China IS the worlds largest polluter (32.88% of world) three times over but I don't hear that fact in any Pacific leaders forum communique ... yes I digress, sorry).
I welcome some of you from NZ to read the AU documents if you haven't already. They IMO are realistic and incredibly valuable. They don't go to insult anyone nor lock a government into any specific action, but they do acknowledge the strategic deterioration and threats to our nations security. They are important documents and publically divulge the reality and challenges we now face as a country.
The starkness of the differing focus in the two countries is highlighted in the AU conclusions. In 2023 Australia concluded (and announced) that they no longer have the luxury of a ten-year window of strategic warning time for conflict. The AU 2023 National Defence Statement and Defence Strategic Review noted that:
- "A large-scale conventional and non-conventional military build-up without strategic reassurance is contributing to the most challenging circumstances in our region for decades.
- As a consequence, for the first time in 80 years, we must go back to fundamentals, to take a first-principles approach as to how we manage and seek to avoid the highest level of strategic risk we now face as a nation: the prospect of major conflict in the region that directly threatens our national interest.
- The most complex strategic circumstances since the end of World War II has demanded the biggest reassessment of our strategic posture in 35 years: the foundational thinking about the fundamental task of the Australian Defence Force and what kind of an ADF we need to perform it".
To sum up. I think there is massive value in NZ publishing a more up to date defence strategic plan. Yes we hate documents for documents sake but the existing NZ strategy/plan is out of date, focused incorrectly and for me negligently wrong. This leads to political and policy indecision, ambiguity and the complacency where I believe you now sit, and it wont change until some truths are exposed for all to see.
If NZ made similar strategic conclusions as Australia did (listed above) and was open enough to say it, then there would be clear public safety reasons to increased defence expenditure and preparedness. The document could outline an appropriate strategy to counter any threat (area denial/ whatever or joint deterant etc), and calls for increased expenditure could be specifically targeted to meet the capability need required. The temptation to ignore (and not mention) ‘China’ will exist. I know many will think it will alienate, affect trade etc, but why on earth would anyone ignore the 200kg male gorilla in the room when their very co-existence, size/ capability, power structure and regional ambition is a clear for all to see. Given the first responsibility of government is to provide for the safety and security of its people, to ignore the existence of a big gorilla would be not only insane but near criminal.
Now you will still have politicians arguing one way or another, but to publicly acknowledge what we all know to be a massive issue will inform public debate, prepare them for spending increases and potentially force the arm of whoever is next in power to meet/ commit bipartisanly to that need. My contention though is the existing document is way out of date (was when it was published tbh), and to fix an issue you must first outline an effective strategy, declared direction and means in which to achieve that strategy.
Am I wrong here? We all know much more needs to be done, but until its said and decided (where you're at/ need to be), it’s too easy for politicians to sit on the fence and look the other way (not my problem etc).