NZDF General discussion thread

[ngatimozart]

The New Zealand Parliament has unanimously passed a motion:

"That this House is gravely concerned about the severe human rights abuses taking place against Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and that it call on the Government to work with the United Nations, international partners, and to work with all relevant instruments of international law to bring these abuses to an end."​

Source: MPs 'gravely concerned about severe human rights abuses' against Uighur people in China's Xinjiang​

Whilst I believe that this motion has been watered down by the Labour Party from the original motion, it has at least made it through the House, been debated and passed. That I think is an important point in itself, because it would have taken only 1 MP out of 120 to have refused leave to have this motion debated when it was. Because it was not part of the Order Paper nor part of Government legislation it would have to have gone into the Ballot with other Private Members Bills to be drawn out of the biscuit tin. They have a biscuit tin with Ballot numbers in it from which the Private Members Bill numbers are drawn. Not all make it.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Good day folks. Can I suggest we wind this idea of the NZ government, deferring to China, back a bit?

That is a fair comment, and in the interests of the community I have withdrawn the statement.

I wish to apologise to the New Zealanders here over some of my recent posting. I have nothing against New Zealand as a country or its people, but I sometimes get too passionate and direct. I was being insensitive, so I hope you will accept my apology.

 

[Gooey]

E te rangatira/Dear Sir

I too am somewhat passionate about current NZ defence policy and am no doubt also insensitive to some; however, the warrior leaders of 20th Century conflagrations and their status in our society have now disappeared. Replaced with the innocent and also optimistic assumption that peace in our AO will be controlled by the current international norms and law.

StingRayOZ's assessment is valid.

If applicable to this forum, the objection that I have is that if our current policy goes wrong the people who will die like rabbits will be the poorly equipped and trained amateur citizen soldiers ala 1915 Gallipoli and 1941 Greece/Crete. I do not suggest an armed camp as an alternative. I do suggest a sensible expenditure of national treasure, equipment and a fighting air force/navy in accordance with a small maritime nation. And working closer with Allies. The near future with a growing and expansionist CCP in this new age of Strategic Competition is going to be difficult enough without us as a nation avoiding this issue until it is too late and the only resources we have to plug the gap are our noble youth.

I am retiring to my sandbag with my whiskey and thoughts. Please indulge me with some concluding words from one of Lange's Senile Generals:

"Now that the initial excitement of taking a novel direction has subsided it is time for NZ to take thoughtful stock of their nation's present situation and consider what the future might hold. ... the possibilities for political, economic and even military disputation have not disappeared. They have multiplied. NZ security will be affected. Its people should not expect to be able to stand aloof untouched by what develops. NZs need to decide whether they are content to accept their nation's present status of distant and increasingly irrelevant friend. Or would they prefer to return to the old, more fully engaged, relationship of ally and so have more say in shaping the future. The choice is theirs to make."

Friend or Ally, NZ at Odds with its Past. 1990 ISBN 0 08 040081 7. Sir Ewan Jamieson. p139

 

[ngatimozart]

E te rangatira/Dear Sir

I too am somewhat passionate about current NZ defence policy and am no doubt also insensitive to some; however, the warrior leaders of 20th Century conflagrations and their status in our society have now disappeared. Replaced with the innocent and also optimistic assumption that peace in our AO will be controlled by the current international norms and law.

StingRayOZ's assessment is valid.

If applicable to this forum, the objection that I have is that if our current policy goes wrong the people who will die like rabbits will be the poorly equipped and trained amateur citizen soldiers ala 1915 Gallipoli and 1941 Greece/Crete. I do not suggest an armed camp as an alternative. I do suggest a sensible expenditure of national treasure, equipment and a fighting air force/navy in accordance with a small maritime nation. And working closer with Allies. The near future with a growing and expansionist CCP in this new age of Strategic Competition is going to be difficult enough without us as a nation avoiding this issue until it is too late and the only resources we have to plug the gap are our noble youth.

I am retiring to my sandbag with my whiskey and thoughts. Please indulge me with some concluding words from one of Lange's Senile Generals:

"Now that the initial excitement of taking a novel direction has subsided it is time for NZ to take thoughtful stock of their nation's present situation and consider what the future might hold. ... the possibilities for political, economic and even military disputation have not disappeared. They have multiplied. NZ security will be affected. Its people should not expect to be able to stand aloof untouched by what develops. NZs need to decide whether they are content to accept their nation's present status of distant and increasingly irrelevant friend. Or would they prefer to return to the old, more fully engaged, relationship of ally and so have more say in shaping the future. The choice is theirs to make."

Friend or Ally, NZ at Odds with its Past. 1990 ISBN 0 08 040081 7. Sir Ewan Jamieson. p139

Kia ora E te matua, tena koe.
Tehei mauri ora.

You have written an enlightening piece that gives us much to think about. I think that the quote from Jamieson is quite applicable to the situation that we now find ourselves in and he has forecast exactly what happened.

Thank you for sharing such wisdom.

Nā mihi,

Ngatimozart.

 

[kiwi in exile]

"Now that the initial excitement of taking a novel direction has subsided it is time for NZ to take thoughtful stock of their nation's present situation and consider what the future might hold. ... the possibilities for political, economic and even military disputation have not disappeared. They have multiplied. NZ security will be affected. Its people should not expect to be able to stand aloof untouched by what develops. NZs need to decide whether they are content to accept their nation's present status of distant and increasingly irrelevant friend. Or would they prefer to return to the old, more fully engaged, relationship of ally and so have more say in shaping the future. The choice is theirs to make."

Friend or Ally, NZ at Odds with its Past. 1990 ISBN 0 08 040081 7. Sir Ewan Jamieson. p139

Here here

In my mind we can contribute more to regional and therefore our own security by deeper and more compettitive engagement with the pacific.

China Wants To Revive A Strategically Located Airfield Deep In The Pacific: Report

As an aside:I always wondered why we didn't play more of a role in Australias Pacific Patrol Boat program. Could easily be a vehicle [bad pun] for greater military/political/customs ties with our neighbours. Enhance joint regional resource protection/interoperability/war on drugs etc
Whats the status on the two IPVs we were trying to offload?

 

[ngatimozart]

Here here

In my mind we can contribute more to regional and therefore our own security by deeper and more compettitive engagement with the pacific.

Agree totally.

China Wants To Revive A Strategically Located Airfield Deep In The Pacific: Report

This is concerning and IF it goes ahead will create problems because it has the capacity to place NZ within the range of PLA H-6 aircraft. It certainly will place Realm of NZ territory well within the range of PLA aircraft. And we have nothing to counter them with.

As an aside:I always wondered why we didn't play more of a role in Australias Pacific Patrol Boat program. Could easily be a vehicle [bad pun] for greater military/political/customs ties with our neighbours. Enhance joint regional resource protection/interoperability/war on drugs etc
Whats the status on the two IPVs we were trying to offload?

That would have been a good idea but were we invited to participate? Am unsure about the current status of the disposal of the two IPV.

 

[chis73]

Whats the status on the two IPVs we were trying to offload?

The latest scuttlebutt I've seen (Dec 2020) is that Ireland is potentially interested in buying them (link). Whether it is worth it for them to transport them halfway around the globe, as against buying new vessels locally, is an entirely different question.
---
Budget day in less than 2 weeks - I'm guessing it will be bad (if not very bad) for Defence. Robertson has already instituted a 'razor-gang' within the Dept of PM & Cabinet to find potential savings, and a public service pay freeze - which are ominous signs.
---
Staying on a nautical theme: I believe the chances of NZ acquiring a Harry DeWolfe class vessel for the Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel seem to be rapidly declining. I would prefer that NZ buys an existing design of some sort. I don't think we have a big enough (or experienced enough) team within Navy/MoD to be ordering a bespoke vessel on our own (not for such a specialized role anyway). The other vessel option that springs to mind is the new Chilean icebreaker (link), under construction at the ASMAR yard, currently called 'Antarctica-1' (due 2023). It has different strengths & weaknesses than a HDW class, but might work just as well. The ship is similar to one built for South Africa in Finland several years ago. Thoughts?

 

[StingrayOZ]

That would have been a good idea but were we invited to participate? Am unsure about the current status of the disposal of the two IPV.

NZ may not be that relevant in the build and allocation of pacific boats, but there is huge opportunity to offer training. support, and joint operations.

One of the reasons East Timor went with a Chinese patrol boat, was not that it was a better platform, or cheaper, it was that China offered a separate and larger training program, and Timor wanted more than what was at that time possible with Australia. Timor didn't really want to lurch closer to China, they just wanted a program that would allow their navy to operate actual metal boats and ships and not just RHIB.

4 minute mark.

This was a huge problem. A nation like Timor, doesn't have a navy, so is building from scratch. That is a huge task and needs to happen at a rate faster than 2 people per year. Also, it is useful for countries to have a friendly connection beyond Australia.

 

[ASSAIL]

NZ may not be that relevant in the build and allocation of pacific boats, but there is huge opportunity to offer training. support, and joint operations.

One of the reasons East Timor went with a Chinese patrol boat, was not that it was a better platform, or cheaper, it was that China offered a separate and larger training program, and Timor wanted more than what was at that time possible with Australia. Timor didn't really want to lurch closer to China, they just wanted a program that would allow their navy to operate actual metal boats and ships and not just RHIB.

4 minute mark.

This was a huge problem. A nation like Timor, doesn't have a navy, so is building from scratch. That is a huge task and needs to happen at a rate faster than 2 people per year. Also, it is useful for countries to have a friendly connection beyond Australia.

But...conveniently, no mention of the 2 x Guardian class PBS that will be “gifted” to Timor Leste in 2023?

 

[ngatimozart]

The latest scuttlebutt I've seen (Dec 2020) is that Ireland is potentially interested in buying them (link). Whether it is worth it for them to transport them halfway around the globe, as against buying new vessels locally, is an entirely different question.
---
Budget day in less than 2 weeks - I'm guessing it will be bad (if not very bad) for Defence. Robertson has already instituted a 'razor-gang' within the Dept of PM & Cabinet to find potential savings, and a public service pay freeze - which are ominous signs.
---
Staying on a nautical theme: I believe the chances of NZ acquiring a Harry DeWolfe class vessel for the Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel seem to be rapidly declining. I would prefer that NZ buys an existing design of some sort. I don't think we have a big enough (or experienced enough) team within Navy/MoD to be ordering a bespoke vessel on our own (not for such a specialized role anyway). The other vessel option that springs to mind is the new Chilean icebreaker (link), under construction at the ASMAR yard, currently called 'Antarctica-1' (due 2023). It has different strengths & weaknesses than a HDW class, but might work just as well. The ship is similar to one built for South Africa in Finland several years ago. Thoughts?

If NZ isn't going to acquire a Harry deWolfe Class, then you can bet your bottom dollar that a full blown icebreaker is well and truly out of contention.

We'll have to wait until the budget comes out and see what eventuates.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Am unsure about the current status of the disposal of the two IPV.

Last I heard was the Irish Naval Service were looking at them and appeared quite keen... I haven't heard anything since.

 

[ngatimozart]

I have just worked on a map looking at the combat radius of the Xian H-6 if it was operating out of the airfield on Kanton Island, Kiribati. The combat radius (CR) data I used was from here: How the Descendants of a 1950s Bomber Transformed China’s Strike Reach which gives the H-6K combat radius as >3,000 km. So I have converted that to nautical miles giving a CR of 1620 NM.



As can be seen from the image, the CR encompasses all three of NZ's real territories plus all of the Pacific Islands including Hawaii. Auckland is ~550 NM past the CR with Brisbane being the closest Australian main centre at ~900 NM. Most of French Polynesia is within the CR or close to it. So if this does come to pass, it would cause a significant conundrum in Wellington, as well as Canberra and Washington.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Arh, nothing like drawing a combat radius of a bomber, through Pearl Harbor.

 

[ngatimozart]

Arh, nothing like drawing a combat radius of a bomber, through Pearl Harbor.

Yep.

I will add another radius to it based on Manus just to see the impact that will have. I believe that the PRC will have not given up on gaining access to and control of the harbour and airfield. I think that a nightmare scenario for both NZ and Australia would be PLAAF, PLAN, and PLANAF bases at both Kanton Island and Manus.

It will be an interesting exercise.

 

[Todjaeger]

Yep.

I will add another radius to it based on Manus just to see the impact that will have. I believe that the PRC will have not given up on gaining access to and control of the harbour and airfield. I think that a nightmare scenario for both NZ and Australia would be PLAAF, PLAN, and PLANAF bases at both Kanton Island and Manus.

It will be an interesting exercise.

Do your range rings include the potential reach of standoff air-launched ordnance like LACM or AShM? If not it might be worth adding in extra rings for different potential loadouts.

 

[ngatimozart]

Do your range rings include the potential reach of standoff air-launched ordnance like LACM or AShM? If not it might be worth adding in extra rings for different potential loadouts.

No they don't Todj. I did think about it, but there are, I think to many variables. As it is the current range ring is the H-6K without IFR. The PLAAF an PLANAF doesn't have great IFR capability at the moment, but the PLA won't be slow in rectifying that. They have seen what it has done as a force multiplier for the US and other western forces. People seem to think that the PLA follow the Soviet / Russian model, but they don't. They're blending a lot of US and other western philosophies and methodologies into their force structures and CONOPS. Unlike the Soviets / Russians the PRC don't see the navy as an adjunct of the ground forces, hence it being basically a green and brown water navy that occasionally ventured into blue water. The PLAN is evolving into a true blue water navy and is not operated as an adjunct of the ground forces. They have read and understood their Mahan, but they haven't read Corbett which could be their failing.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I will add another radius to it based on Manus just to see the impact that will have

Manus/Momote is hypercritical for Australia. You open up the eastern cities with that. However, I believe the government has had reasonable success with PNG, the new hospital is going to open in Lae later this year, upgrades for manus port/airport are moving ahead. Australia has also been providing PNG with vaccines.

Last week civilian 737 flights started occurring out of Momote.

Australia opened embassies in Marshall Islands and across French Polynesia, on Tuesday. It opened missions in Tuvalu in 2018, Cook islands and Palau in 2019 and Niue in 2020. Australia now has the largest diplomatic network of any nation, in the Pacific.

 

[ngatimozart]

Updated map to include the Lombrum - Momote. It's shows that the CR basically moves east encompassing the top north east part or Australia, approximately half of Indonesia, the lower half of the Philippines, and includes Guam. It excludes NZ Realm territories, but includes New Caledonia which will concern Paris.



If I can find some really good data, I may try and run this through a GIS and tease it out a bit more because this map is a bit rough.

 

[spoz]

Manus Island has been of interest to Aus and the US for some time, and there was a project to upgrade facilities there for our use although I’m not sure where that is at. A more worrying possibility might be an upgrade to Daru (which it badly needs btw) so as to “properly support the fishing fleet”, enabling it to be used. Possibly without PNG approval; in a conflict situation China would probably regard that as irrelevant. Imagine if Japan had had an airhead at Daru in 1942....

 

[Gooey]

If I can find some really good data, I may try and run this through a GIS and tease it out a bit more because this map is a bit rough.

Ngatimozart. I always found Falcon View or JMPS a good GIS for this type of thing. I've long since lost access but your friendly local blue suiters at 3/5/40/230SQN may be able to help.