More messaging in Australia about Taiwan.
It seems most planning around this seems to think that the conflict is likely to timeframe within the next 5 years. I think that is optimistically long. Planning it seems is going beyond what Australia would contribute to such a conflict, as we are quite distant from it, but more about what happens after it.
Its pretty universal in Australia and all the think tanks are saying basically the same thing. War is now a real possibility, prepare for the conflict, prepare for post conflict situations. While not inevitable, its certainly a very real situation developing. In terms of preparation, COVID19 has probably helped in that regard, and recent Chinese trade actions have made it a clear priority that Australian businesses need to diversify away from China, and more importantly, develop local supply chains.
In such situations, misunderstandings, and miscommunications can easily cause conflicts. Even when carefully crafted by competent people and both sides genuinely don't want to fight. As an Australian, East Timor is a classic recent example.
I don't think China is being ignored, but regular dialog isn't occurring, and small issues, over time can cause calamities.
Former defence minister warns of potential Indo-Pacific war with China
The chances of a war in the Indo-Pacific region involving China are rising sharply, according to former defence minister Christopher Pyne, who warns Taiwan is the most likely next flashpoint.
www.abc.net.au
'Contingency' plans discussed with United States over possible Taiwan conflict
A senior American diplomat says Australia and the United States are discussing contingency plans in case a military conflict erupts over Taiwan.
www.abc.net.au
It seems most planning around this seems to think that the conflict is likely to timeframe within the next 5 years. I think that is optimistically long. Planning it seems is going beyond what Australia would contribute to such a conflict, as we are quite distant from it, but more about what happens after it.
Its pretty universal in Australia and all the think tanks are saying basically the same thing. War is now a real possibility, prepare for the conflict, prepare for post conflict situations. While not inevitable, its certainly a very real situation developing. In terms of preparation, COVID19 has probably helped in that regard, and recent Chinese trade actions have made it a clear priority that Australian businesses need to diversify away from China, and more importantly, develop local supply chains.
Communication is extremely strained currently. When you have diplomats asking media if they have heard anything recently, its very bad. It appears all that effort into soft diplomacy and relationship building have not developed the side communication links we had all hoped would develop.Sometimes I worry that China will take action that leads to war not because it intends to, but because it's being ignored.
In such situations, misunderstandings, and miscommunications can easily cause conflicts. Even when carefully crafted by competent people and both sides genuinely don't want to fight. As an Australian, East Timor is a classic recent example.
I don't think China is being ignored, but regular dialog isn't occurring, and small issues, over time can cause calamities.