NZDF General discussion thread

[ngatimozart]

Just like your own post its based on opinion, the only government official that has remotely talked about about reinvesting in a ACF is Ron Marks. At this time I have not seen anything remotely of that nature come from the Defence Minister Peeni Henare, or the Prime Minister.

You yourself stated a few posts ago that the wheels move slowly in NZD if you actually think that standing up a handful of multi role ACF irrespective if they are 4th or 5th gen in the next 4 years you are dreaming. Marks had an up hill battle to replace the bloody C130/ Orions and look at the time frame. we are talking a whole new capability from scratch. only way you are going to see a permanent fighter jet capability in NZ in 4 years is through either the Singaporeans or Australian basing aircraft there.

At the moment you have a capability gap one that has existed since the demise of the scooters with the current plans to for upgrading the defence force with all the other competing needs throughout NZ reestablishing a ACF is either very low key or non existent, so any new aircraft is at-least a minimum of 10/12 years away. Which aircraft is still most likely to be a viable proposition comes 20 years down the line around 2050, even you can guess that one

As for the frigate replacement did I say they will buy Australian nope, I said there is a lot of options but in my opinion I think they will settle on the City class as the current weapons are comparable, you haven't moved away from American to UK now only to reinstate the weapons in the next fleet. While i would like to see additional frigates in service the RNZN head sheds will be looking for weapons system that have bite from the beginning, from my point of view it is better to have 2 ships that can integrate into the coalition than 3/4 ships that will need protecting from the task group itself, maybe its time to take your own advice in pulling ones head in.

I have thought long and hard before I replied to this. I stand by all that I have posted on this subject having researched and studied topic for years. Unlike some I do read the reports and other material, plus I follow the politics closely. I also discuss this with my peers.

I will repeat what I said earlier, just because Australia acquires all the new go fast whiz bang toys doesn't mean NZ has to. We can acquire similar capabilities using other platforms at cheaper prices. To whit, for the cost of 2 Type 26 we have the possibility of acquiring 3 and a bit other platforms with similar capabilities.

We won't acquire the F-35 because it's WOLC are too expensive and we would see it as being to beholden to Lockheed Martin and the US due to its maintenance and upgrades system. Plus the security fact of about how much information is being passed by the aircraft back to LM and the US without us being aware of it. That's to risky for us and that's how our pollies and bureaucrats will think about it, plus I believe of all defence acquisitions it would be the one that would be politically risky, because of the controversy that aircraft has had through its history. There would be enough far left wing nutters left to stir things up to much. It'd be the F-16 and ANZAC frigate acquisition drama all over again. And I definitely don't want a repeat of that.

You appear to think that you know Kiwi political and defence dynamics, but you know nothing at all. So I would suggest that you stop coming the raw prawn with us telling us what we will and won't acquire. Last time I looked NZ was not an Australian State.

 

[Rob c]

Thanks for that. Interesting article and it does follow the science.

Speaking to the science in the NZ context, we too will suffer from water problems. Most of our water storage is locked up in our 3140 glaciers (as of 2010) but because of climate change our glaciers are retreating, we are losing glaciers, resulting in significant water shortage loss. We will get to the point where we will have lost all of our glaciers. All of the hydro lakes in the South Island are glacial fed. They actually rely on the spring thaw of the snow pack for a significant amount of their water. There will be more rain intensive events, but overall the cumulative impact will be less annual rainfall.

This places us in somewhat of a conundrum because to keep growing tucker we require water, but we will have less of it. That means we have to change the way we do things and just look at the screaming and shouting when Councils start trying to put coastal inundation information on people's properties LIMs (Land Information Memorandum).

So yes you do raise a very valid point and one that had slipped my mind.

I think that future water problems, especially for farmers and urban area's is more a local problem as apposed to a national lack as there is still vast quantities of good quality water going straight out to sea around NZ. It is simply not were we want it. The south Island west coast would be an example in particular the south.

 

[t68]

I have thought long and hard before I replied to this. I stand by all that I have posted on this subject having researched and studied topic for years. Unlike some I do read the reports and other material, plus I follow the politics closely. I also discuss this with my peers.

I will repeat what I said earlier, just because Australia acquires all the new go fast whiz bang toys doesn't mean NZ has to. We can acquire similar capabilities using other platforms at cheaper prices. To whit, for the cost of 2 Type 26 we have the possibility of acquiring 3 and a bit other platforms with similar capabilities.

We won't acquire the F-35 because it's WOLC are too expensive and we would see it as being to beholden to Lockheed Martin and the US due to its maintenance and upgrades system. Plus the security fact of about how much information is being passed by the aircraft back to LM and the US without us being aware of it. That's to risky for us and that's how our pollies and bureaucrats will think about it, plus I believe of all defence acquisitions it would be the one that would be politically risky, because of the controversy that aircraft has had through its history. There would be enough far left wing nutters left to stir things up to much. It'd be the F-16 and ANZAC frigate acquisition drama all over again. And I definitely don't want a repeat of that.

You appear to think that you know Kiwi political and defence dynamics, but you know nothing at all. So I would suggest that you stop coming the raw prawn with us telling us what we will and won't acquire. Last time I looked NZ was not an Australian State.

Nice post, but at the end of the day it is still an opinion of yours. Nothing more nothing less as there has been no official announcement on the matter/s nothing in the Defence Capability 2019 document,

Like you I have read not just on these boards but across many boards and media as well as I try and keep on the lookout for prominent NZG officials on what they have to say about defence. But by you own post if someone from out side shaky isles had the audacity to have opinion outside of your own it warrants bully behaviour just because you have blue tags. Not everyone wants the tags but have served just as you have. That should not be an excuse with how you interact with member on the board


Wow you have made a lot of non-sense in regards to Lockheed Martin, so by that logic means you don’t mind being beholden to Boeing with the options of F15/18 plus the EMAC

 

[MrConservative]

Wow you have made a lot of non-sense in regards to Lockheed Martin, so by that logic means you don’t mind being beholden to Boeing with the options of F15/18 plus the EMAC

There is always a danger in having an overly dominant contractor or sole supplier involved in any institution whether than be a defence force or a car manufacturer. That is the point that I believe that NG was making.

 

[old faithful]

Some interesting points bought up here.
I think the RNZN Ice strengthened OPV is a good investment. It will never be armed as a corvette, because it’s an OPV and it’s A/O won’t allow that, but it could have some excellent electronics!
Continue with the plan for an LPD /LHD.
As for future frigates. I would love to see a bigger frigate force of 3 or 4 ships, with an ASuM and a capable SAM. There are plenty of options. Europe,Korea or US.
At least 1 more P8 and LRASM. Perhaps a couple of MRTT.
Dismounts for QAMR , SPA to replace the Hamels, and some sort of SAM like Nasams.
Expand the rotary force by at least 4 more.
Spend some coin on cyber warfare. ( incorporate the ice streamgthend OPV)
I think that this list is achievable and would complement an ANZAC force.

 

[ren0312]

I think that future water problems, especially for farmers and urban area's is more a local problem as apposed to a national lack as there is still vast quantities of good quality water going straight out to sea around NZ. It is simply not were we want it. The south Island west coast would be an example in particular the south.

You can always cut immigration substantially and target a 0.5 percent population growth rate like the US, instead of the current 2 percent annual growth rate. And I believe that the housing market was a lot more reasonable 30 years ago when the population was 3.3 million, or 20 years ago when it was 4 million. All things being equal, a population of 3.3 or 4 million would need a lot less water than a population of 8 or 10 million, plus you have to wonder what housing costs or pollution will be like with a population of 8 to 10 million, and the vast majority of that will end up in Greater Auckland and North Island. But then housing is also not cheap in South Island.

 

[Rob c]

You can always cut immigration substantially and target a 0.5 percent population growth rate like the US, instead of the current 2 percent annual growth rate. And I believe that the housing market was a lot more reasonable 30 years ago when the population was 3.3 million, or 20 years ago when it was 4 million. All things being equal, a population of 3.3 or 4 million would need a lot less water than a population of 8 or 10 million, plus you have to wonder what housing costs or pollution will be like with a population of 8 to 10 million, and the vast majority of that will end up in Greater Auckland and North Island. But then housing is also not cheap in South Island.

That is OK locally but the water problem is a world wide problem with the world predicted to have an overall shortfall of useable fresh water for people and crops by 2040, This is predicted to have a significant destabilizing effect on world order. Our water problems are simply a matter of moving the abundance of fresh water we have to were we want it and is more to do with the supply of water for farming and the overuse of local supplies, in other words simply a water management issue as we have a huge excess far more than we will ever need. That short fall on a global scale and the consequences of the breakdown in world order caused by this, is were the problem lies for NZ and could make us a strategic target in the future because of this. In other words WATER is likely to become the new oil for strategic proposes.

 

[John Fedup]

As climate change reversal isn’t happening anytime soon, what about iceberg fresh water recovery. This certainly could be an area for conflict as desperate countries consider trying to exploit this resource, although the viability of this is likely to be difficult. Antarctica is a tempting resource.

 

[ren0312]

That is OK locally but the water problem is a world wide problem with the world predicted to have an overall shortfall of useable fresh water for people and crops by 2040, This is predicted to have a significant destabilizing effect on world order. Our water problems are simply a matter of moving the abundance of fresh water we have to were we want it and is more to do with the supply of water for farming and the overuse of local supplies, in other words simply a water management issue as we have a huge excess far more than we will ever need. That short fall on a global scale and the consequences of the breakdown in world order caused by this, is were the problem lies for NZ and could make us a strategic target in the future because of this. In other words WATER is likely to become the new oil for strategic proposes.

I think from a political perspective, the most urgent problem is to fix in the short and medium terms is the housing crisis, maybe with some sort of massive cheap housing building project, or else it can become an enormous source of social instability, which can have enormous implications on military projects, I mean I wondering why no populist politician in New Zealand as of yet has proposed something along the lines of cutting the defence budget to fund public housing, even in the form of vouchers, which would really not be good, but which would also be politically popular in the short run, if people are given the choice between spending between guns and butter.

 

[ren0312]

As climate change reversal isn’t happening anytime soon, what about iceberg fresh water recovery. This certainly could be an area for conflict as desperate countries consider trying to exploit this resource, although the viability of this is likely to be difficult. Antarctica is a tempting resource.

How much underground water does New Zealand have?

 

[ren0312]

From where I am at, watching how ANZAC foreign policy develops in response to how things develop in the South China Seas is of interest.

 

[ren0312]

If New Zealand does not have enough funds in the long run for both first-class air assets and first-class naval assets, maybe it should choose which it wants, and request that Australia provide some sort of assistance for the other branch?

 

[ngatimozart]

How much underground water does New Zealand have?

We don't really know, but in some areas it is being extracted from the aquifers far greater than the recharge rate. Our geology changes rapidly over short distances and we do know that a lot of intra plate water is subducted into the mantle. The problem is once we lose our glaciers our long term water storage becomes very problematic.

From where I am at, watching how ANZAC foreign policy develops in response to how things develop in the South China Seas is of interest.

There is a distinct difference between the Australian and New Zealand approach to SCS issue. Australia has been more open about it, whereas NZ has said what it has wanted to say behind closed doors. However I am of the opinion that sometimes you do need to make a very public statement upon where you stand on such an important issue.

 

[ngatimozart]

If New Zealand does not have enough funds in the long run for both first-class air assets and first-class naval assets, maybe it should choose which it wants, and request that Australia provide some sort of assistance for the other branch?

Funds aren't the problem. We have ample funds. It is the political will to do so that is lacking.

 

[ngatimozart]

As climate change reversal isn’t happening anytime soon, what about iceberg fresh water recovery. This certainly could be an area for conflict as desperate countries consider trying to exploit this resource, although the viability of this is likely to be difficult. Antarctica is a tempting resource.

It is indeed John and not just for water. There are a significant amount of other resources there that people will be after, especially those in Beijing, Moscow and Washington.

 

[Xthenaki]

I agree - We need to openly support Australia and show unity. Sitting on the fence will isolate us

 

[oldsig127]

If New Zealand does not have enough funds in the long run for both first-class air assets and first-class naval assets, maybe it should choose which it wants, and request that Australia provide some sort of assistance for the other branch?

Gladly. How many billions were you thinking of paying us?

oldsig

 

[ren0312]

Gladly. How many billions were you thinking of paying us?

oldsig

How about payments in sheep?

 

[ngatimozart]

How about payments in sheep?

Are you being a smart or something?

 

[Hone C]

I think from a political perspective, the most urgent problem is to fix in the short and medium terms is the housing crisis, maybe with some sort of massive cheap housing building project

While not wishing to stray too far into politics, that's the platform the current PM got elected on in 2017. Results have been less than satisfactory.

Housing is something that the private sector, ie builders and developers, can provide.

What the private sector can't provide, and what is generally acknowledged as the first duty of government, is to protect its citizens.