NZDF General discussion thread

[t68]

Have you had a look at the projected F35 operation and sustainability costs? If NZ bought the F35 it would have to forego the P8 and the P8 is far more important to NZ than the F35. With the MPA there is also a probable requirement for a BAMS and the ADF is looking at acquiring seven MQ-4C Triton to go with their eight P8As. They are budgeting A$ 2- 3 billion for the seven MQ-4C Triton. In that context and along with my previous post I stand by my comment that the F35 is not a suitable platform for NZ. Like I said, if the NZG do decide to stand up an ACF the SAAB JAS Gripen NG will be ideal. It may not be stealthy but it is a Gen 4.5 aircraft and NZ does not have the same issues as Singapore. Who are we going to invade? Tasmania?

The points that you bring are in relation to what the NZDF budget can sustain now, what I am trying to illustrate is that if the goverment was willing it could Infact sustain all that and more. Historically the NZDF use to have a budget of roughly 2/2.5% of GDP,
Defence spending as a proportion of GDP, 1972

When using figure for Australian estimates it usually includes operating said equipment for X amount of years generally 10. you are correct in saying the situation that Singapore confronts is drastically differs for New Zealand, but in that context Singapore is signalling it may buy a number of F35B it has also been aclnowledged that it will require more funding to sustain the B model if they can sustain a package of F15SG mixed with F16 plus a future buy of F35B I suspect NZ could handle 24 F35A.Singapore has seen the benefits of using aircraft that can fit in seamlessly with the US Forces which would be the most liklely source of sustainment.

As you are awere Australia hopes to have a fleet of F35A sometime in the future who do think Australia is going to invade.But all this talk on a future ACF is a moot point if the collective goverment doesn't pull there heads out of the sand.

 

[gf0012-aust]

When using figure for Australian estimates it usually includes operating said equipment for X amount of years generally 10.

Nope, major capital equipment is life cycled for 25-30 years

 

[ngatimozart]

The points that you bring are in relation to what the NZDF budget can sustain now, what I am trying to illustrate is that if the goverment was willing it could Infact sustain all that and more. Historically the NZDF use to have a budget of roughly 2/2.5% of GDP,
Defence spending as a proportion of GDP, 1972

When using figure for Australian estimates it usually includes operating said equipment for X amount of years generally 10. you are correct in saying the situation that Singapore confronts is drastically differs for New Zealand, but in that context Singapore is signalling it may buy a number of F35B it has also been aclnowledged that it will require more funding to sustain the B model if they can sustain a package of F15SG mixed with F16 plus a future buy of F35B I suspect NZ could handle 24 F35A.Singapore has seen the benefits of using aircraft that can fit in seamlessly with the US Forces which would be the most liklely source of sustainment.

As you are awere Australia hopes to have a fleet of F35A sometime in the future who do think Australia is going to invade.But all this talk on a future ACF is a moot point if the collective goverment doesn't pull there heads out of the sand.

Even if NZ could sustain a defence budget of 2% GDP I still believe that the F35 would still not be a suitable platform for NZ. There are many other demands that are placed on the defence budget and a defence budget of 2% GDP would be around NZ$4.5 billion. Considering what has to be replaced, capabilities reinstated and new capabilities gained as per between now and 2035 for the Future 35 plan, then the F35 is a no goer. We have approximately NZ$12 billion worth of equipment to acquire either as new capability or replace existing capability. All the ships, bar one in the RNZN will have to be replaced by 2035. In the RNZAF the C130s, B757s, CT4s, P3K2s, B200s and SH2 Seasprites will have to be replaced. Also the 2010 DWP indicated that another aircraft type would be acquired to do EEZ maritime patrol. On top of that it would be highly desirable to stand up an ACF, so by the time you get that sorted with 28 Gripen NGs plus 10 KAI T/A 50s as trainers you are looking at close to NZ$5 billion.

I am unsure of the Army equipment replacement requirements.

To bring the RNZN back up to a minimum strength another new frigate would have to be purchased and manned. I think a Navantia F100 series frigate would be ideal. Plus about four Navantia BAM OPVs, maybe five. The NZG is required to buy two oil spill support vessels but hasn't done so yet, so maybe they could modify and use the two current OPVs Otago and Wellington for that and replace them with the BAM.

However the large elephant in the room is the polies and the lack of political will to have a credible defence budget and defence force. I do know that NZ Inc can afford a defence budget of 2% GDP but the current crop of Kiwi pollies don't see a real need for defence.

 

[King Wally]

On top of that it would be highly desirable to stand up an ACF, so by the time you get that sorted with 28 Gripen NGs plus 10 KAI T/A 50s as trainers you are looking at close to NZ$5 billion.

If I put my ultra conservative hat on.... and get realistic.... it would be great to see the NZAF pick up even a dozen KAI T-50 Golden Eagle's as a first step. They apear to be a pretty impressive advanced jet trainer with combat ability. Maybe on par with an F-16 even? At worst it would start to train up the next generation of fighter pilots so the NZDF weren't totally starting from scratch if they decided to pick up a couple squadrens of combat fighters in the future.

 

[t68]

Even if NZ could sustain a defence budget of 2% GDP I still believe that the F35 would still not be a suitable platform for NZ. There are many other demands that are placed on the defence budget and a defence budget of 2% GDP would be around NZ$4.5 billion. Considering what has to be replaced, capabilities reinstated and new capabilities gained as per between now and 2035 for the Future 35 plan, then the F35 is a no goer. We have approximately NZ$12 billion worth of equipment to acquire either as new capability or replace existing capability. All the ships, bar one in the RNZN will have to be replaced by 2035. In the RNZAF the C130s, B757s, CT4s, P3K2s, B200s and SH2 Seasprites will have to be replaced. Also the 2010 DWP indicated that another aircraft type would be acquired to do EEZ maritime patrol. On top of that it would be highly desirable to stand up an ACF, so by the time you get that sorted with 28 Gripen NGs plus 10 KAI T/A 50s as trainers you are looking at close to NZ$5 billion.

I am unsure of the Army equipment replacement requirements.

To bring the RNZN back up to a minimum strength another new frigate would have to be purchased and manned. I think a Navantia F100 series frigate would be ideal. Plus about four Navantia BAM OPVs, maybe five. The NZG is required to buy two oil spill support vessels but hasn't done so yet, so maybe they could modify and use the two current OPVs Otago and Wellington for that and replace them with the BAM.

However the large elephant in the room is the polies and the lack of political will to have a credible defence budget and defence force. I do know that NZ Inc can afford a defence budget of 2% GDP but the current crop of Kiwi pollies don't see a real need for defence.

Oh totally agree with what you are saying regarding replacing exiting equipment and so fourth, but not on the ACF front, get the JATF house on order first then an ACF if funds permit, but as said before don't hold your breath.

 

[ngatimozart]

Oh totally agree with what you are saying regarding replacing exiting equipment and so fourth, but not on the ACF front, get the JATF house on order first then an ACF if funds permit, but as said before don't hold your breath.

Don't worry I'm not holding my breathe. Kiwi pollies are notorious for their lack of imagination and intestinal fortitude when it comes to defence.

 

[King Wally]

I did some digging around on the Gripen seeing as its been raised as a suggestion. Best similar example I could find was from the Royal Thai Air Force

Thailand Buying JAS-39 Gripens, AWACS

They pulled a deal for a Dozen Gripens and SAAB threw in / negotiated in a AWACS aircraft ... total Spend was about 1.1 Billion.

You could argue that a similar deal would be realistic for the NZDF as long as the pollies agree'd to front a little extra into the budget. It wouldn't be the largest ACF in the world but its something to a tight budget.

 

[LRate]

In regards to RNZAF's P3K2 asw capability Air Vice Marshal Peter Stockwell, chief of the Air Force, told Defense News, “We are only maintaining a fairly rudimentary capability in the ASW world at the moment.
The latest AirForce news it states the anti-submarine warfare (AsW) capability currently embodied in New Zealand’s P-3 Orion maritime patrol
aircraft is considered obsolete and has become increasingly difficult to support.
If you look through the history of RNZAF Orion upgrades both Project Rigel in the 80s and the canceled project Sirius both attempts to upgrade the ASW capability were canned by the respective labour governments.
This current RFI for the ASW upgrade is only in early stages and will be few years before the actual upgrade takes place. Good to see they have replaced the MK46 Mod 2 with the MK46 mod 5A SW.

 

[ngatimozart]

I did some digging around on the Gripen seeing as its been raised as a suggestion. Best similar example I could find was from the Royal Thai Air Force

Thailand Buying JAS-39 Gripens, AWACS

They pulled a deal for a Dozen Gripens and SAAB threw in / negotiated in a AWACS aircraft ... total Spend was about 1.1 Billion.

You could argue that a similar deal would be realistic for the NZDF as long as the pollies agree'd to front a little extra into the budget. It wouldn't be the largest ACF in the world but its something to a tight budget.

Yes it is a good argument although I have some doubts about the veracity of the source. Defence Industry Daily has been known to publish misinformation about the F35 so that questions their reliabilty about anything else they publish. Given that rider if we accept their information at face value only then yes it would be a good buy. So extrapolating that out if we say bought 24 we could get say four SAB 340 Eyries at cheap prices. But I think our govt would be more interested in cheap MPA to do the EEZ patrols so amybe six of them instead. We don't need the Eyrie really. Anyway at the moment all this is hypothetical.

 

[Gibbo]

In regards to RNZAF's P3K2 asw capability Air Vice Marshal Peter Stockwell, chief of the Air Force, told Defense News, “We are only maintaining a fairly rudimentary capability in the ASW world at the moment.
The latest AirForce news it states the anti-submarine warfare (AsW) capability currently embodied in New Zealand’s P-3 Orion maritime patrol
aircraft is considered obsolete and has become increasingly difficult to support.
If you look through the history of RNZAF Orion upgrades both Project Rigel in the 80s and the canceled project Sirius both attempts to upgrade the ASW capability were canned by the respective labour governments.
This current RFI for the ASW upgrade is only in early stages and will be few years before the actual upgrade takes place. Good to see they have replaced the MK46 Mod 2 with the MK46 mod 5A SW.

Another key quote from article about the UWISR project (from AirForce news magazine) is "...But at this stage it's important to note that the Government has made no investment decisions in this area".

Would suggest to me it may not even be a go-er - especially if it drags out till another Labour Govt gets in & cancels it (they're adamant we don't need to be hunting subs - but should instead stick to dancing round the may-pole!) :kar

I'm worried that there hasn't been any more talk about fitting the P3's with a self-protection suite - essential these days for entering areas with anything hotter than 'pirate' activity. Given all the investment in new sensors etc with the P3K2 upgrade, now possibly USIWR, we yet may turn up at a coalition deployment and be told to go home c'os we're not spec'd enough!:jump

With a change of Govt & a white paper since, the LDTP plan that did list this project has been taken out & shot AFAIK.

 

[LRate]

Hopefully The P3K2 ASW upgrade goes through its long overdue and critical to a trading maritime nation such as NZ.
Even from the looney left side of the debate with their nuclear free NZ ideology ,how can one deter Nuclear submarines transiting there EEZ with only two frigates and MPAs with obsolete ASW kit?.
Not sure if all in NZDF will be fully backing this proposal in the defence news article an interview with the CDF on the P3K2 ASW role quotes

Yet, in November 2012, when asked about ASW capability, Lt. Gen. Rhys Jones, chief of the Defence Force, said, “It is impossible for us to counter every threat, every issue, and that’s where we need to balance things up.”

“Submarine proliferation in the area is growing. Is it going to be an issue for us? Yes, it will in the future … but is it a greater priority than overland surveillance or other surveillance that we might need to have in our region?”

At least the NZDF is becoming more joint and less one service trying get one over other two like the whole 3rd anzac / ACF scraping in favour of the NZLAVs.
The priority at the moment is whole JATF based around CY which is expected to be up and running by 2015. Once that's achieved the whole enhanced combat role of NZDF will be the next focus which is expected to be fielded by 2020 .This is where I expect this ASW upgrade to take place.

 

[Todjaeger]

Hopefully The P3K2 ASW upgrade goes through its long overdue and critical to a trading maritime nation such as NZ.
Even from the looney left side of the debate with their nuclear free NZ ideology ,how can one deter Nuclear submarines transiting there EEZ with only two frigates and MPAs with obsolete ASW kit?.
Not sure if all in NZDF will be fully backing this proposal in the defence news article an interview with the CDF on the P3K2 ASW role quotes

Yet, in November 2012, when asked about ASW capability, Lt. Gen. Rhys Jones, chief of the Defence Force, said, “It is impossible for us to counter every threat, every issue, and that’s where we need to balance things up.”

“Submarine proliferation in the area is growing. Is it going to be an issue for us? Yes, it will in the future … but is it a greater priority than overland surveillance or other surveillance that we might need to have in our region?”

At least the NZDF is becoming more joint and less one service trying get one over other two like the whole 3rd anzac / ACF scraping in favour of the NZLAVs.
The priority at the moment is whole JATF based around CY which is expected to be up and running by 2015. Once that's achieved the whole enhanced combat role of NZDF will be the next focus which is expected to be fielded by 2020 .This is where I expect this ASW upgrade to take place.

Actually I do not see sub proliferation around NZ as being a concern. The sub/lack of ASW capability issue which I feel NZ should be concerned about is sub proliferation in NZ's SLOC.

Given the location of NZ, for subs to be operating in the immediate vicinity of either North Island or South Island, the subs would have either transitted past Oz, looped into the Pacific or Southern Ocean and come back, or transitted across the Pacific from the Americas. All these scenarios are not (IMO at least) as likely as the potential for unfriendly subs to operate around a choke point in international shipping lanes. Imagine the impact on Kiwi trade if subs from China and India began engaging each other and/or foreign shipping in the Indian Ocean by the Malacca Straits.

That area is well outside of NZ's immediate area, but given the volume of trade which passes through those shipping lanes, any significant activity will impact NZ.

-Cheers

 

[ngatimozart]

Actually I do not see sub proliferation around NZ as being a concern. The sub/lack of ASW capability issue which I feel NZ should be concerned about is sub proliferation in NZ's SLOC.

Given the location of NZ, for subs to be operating in the immediate vicinity of either North Island or South Island, the subs would have either transitted past Oz, looped into the Pacific or Southern Ocean and come back, or transitted across the Pacific from the Americas. All these scenarios are not (IMO at least) as likely as the potential for unfriendly subs to operate around a choke point in international shipping lanes. Imagine the impact on Kiwi trade if subs from China and India began engaging each other and/or foreign shipping in the Indian Ocean by the Malacca Straits.

That area is well outside of NZ's immediate area, but given the volume of trade which passes through those shipping lanes, any significant activity will impact NZ.

-Cheers

That partly has always been my argument. NZs SLOC don't stop at the 12 mile limit but they extend to the Straits of Malacca and the Persian Gulf. To that I would add the IO, South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean West of about 150E. Kiwi polllies and general population haven't figured out (or don't want to know) that if subs start sinking merchant ships and /or there is naval warfare in any if those areas that our trade will come to a grinding halt. No imports of oil, fuels electronics foods cars etc., and exports of dairy products and other things to pay for them. They forget that we are an island nation with its associated benefits and liabilities.

 

[Cadredave]

That partly has always been my argument. NZs SLOC don't stop at the 12 mile limit but they extend to the Straits of Malacca and the Persian Gulf. To that I would add the IO, South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean West of about 150E. Kiwi polllies and general population haven't figured out (or don't want to know) that if subs start sinking merchant ships and /or there is naval warfare in any if those areas that our trade will come to a grinding halt. No imports of oil, fuels electronics foods cars etc., and exports of dairy products and other things to pay for them. They forget that we are an island nation with its associated benefits and liabilities.

Totally agree and to be honest it has always been NZDF/MFATs party line. IMO it gets lost in the argument between the two main parties who know that votes are easy to come by if they can paint the other as an war monger listen to both parties post Afghjan talking up UN missions. Little do they (NZ public) understand that if the Malaca straights are closed off you can kiss goodbye those big screen TVs and all other goods as well.

 

[ngatimozart]

Just had a look at The Press update and graphic for the budget. It appears that Defence has 11.09% increase in the budget up to $3 Billion. The largest increase seems to be Capital Expenditure up 83.3% to $583 million. New Zealand 2013 Budget Interactive Visualisation | Stuff.co.nz NZDF is at about the 10 O' clock position on the graphic. Click on that and it will bring up the NZDF graphic.

Now I better go and get the angina spray. Such a shock to the system.

 

[Lucasnz]

Just had a look at The Press update and graphic for the budget. It appears that Defence has 11.09% increase in the budget up to $3 Billion. The largest increase seems to be Capital Expenditure up 83.3% to $583 million. New Zealand 2013 Budget Interactive Visualisation | Stuff.co.nz NZDF is at about the 10 O' clock position on the graphic. Click on that and it will bring up the NZDF graphic.

Now I better go and get the angina spray. Such a shock to the system.

A look at the budget shows a drop in some areas of spending, naval combat force and army logistics spring to mind. But the drops are minor. Was surprised at the capital equipment budget for the NZDF - 500million plus. Very nice

 

[40 deg south]

A look at the budget shows a drop in some areas of spending, naval combat force and army logistics spring to mind. But the drops are minor. Was surprised at the capital equipment budget for the NZDF - 500million plus. Very nice

$135 mil is required for the MAN trucks.
The Seasprite deal is for $242 mil, but that may not all come out of this year's budget given deliveries start in 2014?
The final HN90s are yet to arrive, so I assume we have yet to make some hefty final paymets on that contract.
The P3 Orion upgrade still has (I think) a couple of aircraft to go.
The ANZAC Platform Systems Upgrade (part 2) is underway, and costing about $34 million.

So a big chunk of the $500 million plus is already committed. It's good news, but it ain't Christmas!

Also noticed on the SELEX website that NZ has just bought the LINAPS artillery pointing system for the Light Gun fleet - no price given but probably not major. No mention on MinDef website that I can see.

 

[Wolf St]

Marine expeditionary force.

In my opinion, which is supported from numerous contacts in the NZDF is that all three branches ie; Navy, Air force and army should be combined to form an effective Marine expeditionary force. Due to population and financial restrictions it seems only sensible to combine and provide a specialist force suited to current requirements. At the moment the NZ navy has to borrow body armor off the army, the army needs to file paper work to use the air force NH90's etc... By combining the three, admin costs will reduce, and hopefully the labour government will come into power next election as they have historically been more supportive financially than national in terms of the defense budget. Our biggest problem is force projection, replace the Hercules and perhaps invest more in the naval side of things an extra frigate plus another MRV wouldn't go amiss. I wouldn't bother with any fighter planes but a few cobras would be a useful addition.

 

[King Wally]

It would seam to make sense to push into a Marine Expeditionary Force type set up wouldn't it.

The Australian's are moving more that way with their plan Beersheba, not to the extent that you envisage but it gives an idea of what you can do to take a step in that direction. Perhaps the Kiwi's should send some observers over and see if they can replicate some aspects or build their own model. That's the first step anyway, going to the extent of fully merging the branches into one organisation is a huge step again.

 

[ngatimozart]

In my opinion, which is supported from numerous contacts in the NZDF is that all three branches ie; Navy, Air force and army should be combined to form an effective Marine expeditionary force. Due to population and financial restrictions it seems only sensible to combine and provide a specialist force suited to current requirements. At the moment the NZ navy has to borrow body armor off the army, the army needs to file paper work to use the air force NH90's etc... By combining the three, admin costs will reduce, and hopefully the labour government will come into power next election as they have historically been more supportive financially than national in terms of the defense budget. Our biggest problem is force projection, replace the Hercules and perhaps invest more in the naval side of things an extra frigate plus another MRV wouldn't go amiss. I wouldn't bother with any fighter planes but a few cobras would be a useful addition.

We don't discuss politics here - it's against the rules, but a Labour lead govt with Goff and with the Greens in it would be disasterous for NZDF in the long term. All the ASW components that are either in the P3s and frigates are are being planned to be installed would be remove or cancelled. Any offensive capabilities would be removed. In the long term you would kiss good bye to the frigates. Politics off.

A single Defence force would not work either. Just have a look at the Canadian experience. The paper work generating a tasking is not going to save costings by going to a single service. It doesn't matter from where inside NZDF that a tasking is generated the costing still comes out of Vote: NZDF. There are a broad range of specialities that are unique to each service and one size does not fit all. Methinks you need to read through this thread and then the http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/royal-new-zealand-air-force-6601/ thread, the http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/navy-maritime/royal-new-zealand-navy-discussions-updates-4854/ thread and the http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/army-security-forces/new-zealand-army-organisation-4547/ thread in order to obtain a real understanding of how defnce works. With regard to fighter jets and airpower this is a must read http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/air-power-101-new-members-12457/

You also need to go to the NZDF website and download a copy of Future 2035 http://www.nzdf.mil.nz/corporate-documents/future-35.htm which sets out the plan for NZDF. A Joint Amphibious Taskforce will be set up by 2015.