North Korean Military.

[supercomrade]

I am sorry for not being well informed on the subject, but I really do not see what the big deal with NK is. Like do we REALLY need to go to war with them?


Don't we have anti-missile shields, both land and sea based systems that blanket NK?

Let's say they launch their 1 nuke...........do you guys really see it hitting it's target? USA would instantly engage it with THAAD and whatever anti-missile systems that are onboard the US ships that are in the area.

 

[old faithful]

Really? You ask what if? It will probably miss any way, our systems would knock it down anyway?

If he launches an ICBM at a target, he has shown intent on attacking, 1st strike with Nukes.
Here's what will happen if he misses and you just laugh it off. He will make new ones, maybe put one on board a ship and sail it into San Fransisco bay. Or he will launch more. If he shows intent on using nukes and waves his sword around, he needs to be stopped.

What if he gifted ISIS one or two? My enemies enemy if my friend mentality.

Here's a what if for you.
What if you underestimated (or the media intentionally underestimated) the NK nukes ability, and overestimated THAADs? THAAD has a good success rate, it hit 37 of the 42 targets......that's 5 that got through.

 

[colay1]

As for soft power, I think all possible ideas have failed so the last resort is approaching unless Japan and the US are prepared to accept nuclear armed ICBMs aimed at them by a nut-job.

I disagree. China is the key as almost everyone seems to agree. And China has not been constructive and could effectively put a cap on the NK program if they wanted to. KJU may still wind up having nukes but the threat will be greatly mitigated if China puts the hammer down on them primarily economically. China can still have it's buffer at it's border and avoid a unified Korea. Basically China will make clear to NK that it has to toe the line.

The real question is why China hasn't been more helpful. And what can be done to change their behavior. The US has powerful economic and financial leverage against China that will inflict unacceptable pain and social pressure on Beijing. Now consider the EU working in concert with the US to implement this strategy which will make it even more effective.

But these economic and financial threats has never been executed because of the inevitable reciprocal response. Will US and EU consumers put up with the repercussions of a trade war? Or will the thinking be it's simpler to just start a destructive war that could likely go nuclear?

There are still more avenues open and war is not the inevitable endpoint.

 

[Feanor]

The theory that Kim won't do anything stupid because it would threaten his survival is pretty lame.

That's some professional grade analysis there. Consider the consequences of such a war, including taking responsibility for the north koreans once the war is done. There's a good reason previous administrations were none too eager to get into this. The tangible potential benefits were few, and the problems plentiful.

Yes, this is a between a rock and a hard place scenario. The threat of a massive artillery attack will now be upgraded to a nuclear capability, the result of doing nothing. Perhaps SK is content to face NK blackmail and intimidation because they feel it is a solution that is better and safer than dealing with the consequences of a war. Japan and the US will have to decide if this idea makes any sense. Every time Kim is given an inch he takes a mile. This won't change as it has been working for him.

North Korea has had nuclear IRBMs for a while. In fact for the RoK this is nothing new. They've been in range of Korean missiles for a long time. This is only new for the US.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The EU and Japan suggest for additional sanctions and embargos. (Cookies op AD.nl | AD.nl)
Also the US dont know what to do. China and Russia only accept (again) negotiations. For anything else like military action its way too late...

 

[StingrayOZ]

There are really two problems.

One is North Korea themselves. This is a distant but real threat, that they will act in a rouge way, in the interests of an individual or possibly out of an inflexible system the cause huge devistation. Most certainly for south korea, probably Japan, within the realm of possibility of Russia, China and the US possibily further afield. Certainly they would seem intent to gain further advantage by nuclear ransome.

The second is that the North Korean situation may be taken advantage of by the Chinese and the Russians for there own strategic objectives. Move the US away from them and their interests, threaten by proxy for their own objectives. Arguably that is already happening.

Both aren't really acceptable to the US, as both are effectively real attacts on their position, status, interests, allies etc.

North Korea could be managed if they only had conventional weapons, the threat to US allies and China and Russia was basically very, very low. South Korea was the major state that was vunerable and for a number of reasons that was less likely to happen. Ego sit and wait, it seemed plausable that the regime might collapse anyway, most soviet style states have or have restructured in such a way that the animosity died with their leader (Cuba?). NK beat the odds.

Now the time has run out. While the US (lets face it, and others inc China and Russia) and has been very active in trying to stop North Korea fielding capable nuclear weapons, (and its been 50 years, so those efforts haven't been invain). It would now appear that North Korea is on the verge of being able to field deployable nuclear weapons on long range missiles. It can extort the US directly instead of by its allies. Not just the US either.

That is what has changed, the quality of the weapons, the range they can now effectively strike. Previously NK had some nuclear capability, but it wasn't believed to be reliable or effective enough to deploy and had no reliable long legged deployment option. With the new missiles, the new subs NK has changed the situation. It's either act now, or never ever act.

China and Russia think that they can still influence NK and that if the US withdraws everything will be fine and dandy. A variety of events make that level of influence seem laughable and even if true are still not acceptable to the US (threat by proxy).

Short of NK becoming an open, democratic society, with different leadership, reuniting with SK, a revolution or NK honestly terminating their nuclear program in a very open way it with an absolute plan for leadership change would seem we are sliding into a military actions, regardless of how much China, Russia, the US, Japan, South Korea would prefer it not to come to that.

I expect that yes, sanctions on China to apply pressure. The question is who is going to support the US on that front. The US will want this to be a team effort. I don't think the sanctions will be effective, I don't think China has that kind of influence anymore.

The most probable course of action is NK will continue their program, the leadership does not change and all sides increase levels of harrisment until something happens.

I expect a series of cold war type of events, in the air and on the sea, baiting each side and escalating.

The US will aim to side line China/Russia (ie sanctions/international pressure) and then apply direct pressure to NK.

Hopefully in 6 months I am wrong and everything works out. 60:40 I would say at this stage.

 

[rjtjrt]

..........
As for the NK army, I have know idea how well they have been brainwashed. Fear is only motivation (along with food to eat) for the average soldier and when under intense fire, the fear of officers could well be replaced by the fear of destruction. Add in their knowledge of what is being done to their fellow citizens the option of rising up against the regime starts to look viable. Wishful thinking but history has examples of this.

My impression is the North Korean population is, by and large, patriotic, unaware of anything negative about their leaders, and genuinely believe in their great leader.
They are like us - they believe what we are told by our press and government. There is no independent source of information.
Just see how differently the Russian population genuinely see the same events compared to the population in west (ie MH 317).
The North Korean Population and military will not rise up against what we see as a cruel dictator, but who they see as a loyal and magnificent benefactor against a cruel and heartless enemy (us).
Suggest you read:
Lee, Soon Ok. Eyes of the Tailless Animals: Prison Memoirs of a North Korean Woman. Living Sacrifice Book Co, 1999, ISBN 978-0-88264-335-9

Just compare recent attitude of west to Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, Sudan, etc, compared to North Korea.

The events and impotence of west will spur other countries to get a deliverable nuclear capability. It is demonstrably effective. The West (ie you and me) has become soft and comfortable, and so is terminally risk averse against a capable foe.

Also, why would China help? Everything about this helps China in her struggle to expand, and contain US and Japan her traditional enemies. Trade with a country does not equate to friendship.

 

[STURM]

What hasn't been discussed is the ability to detonate an EMP over the US. We need to leave him alone.

The North Koreans would have to have a very good reason to fire a nuke at the U.S. knowing that the U.S. would retaliate n kind.

Despite all the rhetoric and banging of war drums the only was to resolve the issue is via diplomatic means. In return for a halt in further missile test firings the U.S. would have to give North Korea something in return. What the North Koreans want may not be want to get but there has to be a certain level of compromise: that's the way diplomacy works. Everybody feels ''threatened'' by North Korea's action but we tend to forget that the North Korean's also feel ''threatened''; 2 sides in the narrative here.

If China and Russia backed a plan in which North Korea would declare a freeze in missile and nuke testing in return for the U.S. scaling down its military exercises [which the North Koreans view as provocative] will the U.S. agree or will it insist that it has to be its way or no way at all? One thing's sure : if the U.S. continues to issue threats and rely on sanctions; as it has been doing for so long, it won't get anywhere as North Korea is not Iraq or Libya, countries in which the U.S. had it very much easier achieving what it wanted and imposing its will.

Also, why would China help? Everything about this helps China in her struggle to expand, and contain US and Japan her traditional enemies. Trade with a country does not equate to friendship.

I disagree. China is the key as almost everyone seems to agree. And China has not been constructive and could effectively put a cap on the NK program if they wanted to.

China is indeed the key to everything and the Chinese understand the North Koreans much more than Trump and his advisors ever could but there is a limit to what China can do.bAs it is the Chinese have taken certain steps to show their displeasure with what North Korea has been doing. It's easy for Trump to talk of war and to say the U.S. will go it alone if the Chinese don;t help; the fact remains that North Korea is on China's doorstep. If millions of refugees cross into China it won't be the U.S. but China that will have to deal with it. China has to do what in it's interests; not just what's in the interests of the U.S. Surely the Chinese are not expected to put U.S. interests before their own?

What if he gifted ISIS one or two? My enemies enemy if my friend mentality.

On paper anything can happen. He may even decide one day to gift nukes to several countries to ensure that nukes are ''evenly'' distributed and not just available exclusively to the West and countries the West decides [Israel, India and Pakistan] can have nukes. Anything can happen but North Korean nukes being gifted or sold is highly unlikely.

His main agenda is regime survival not engaging in some ideological driven campaign to challenge U.S. hegemony or a deep rooted desire to inflict damage on the U.S. and its allies. Gifting a nuke to country or group 'X' and having that nuke detonated would see the end of the North Korean leadership and that would be contrary to their main agenda which is regime survival.

 

[Toblerone]

I don't understand what diplomacy can achieve. The N.Koreans will not abandon their epic effort at the 11th hour. They will be able to manufacture nuclear warheads and semi-reliable ICBMs, then they will brazenly threaten any country with devastation. This will set a precedence, too.

And maybe a couple decades later the US intelligence services will realise some iranian missile types are being fitted with N.korean nuclear warheads! They will try to put pressure on Iran and the response will be a boldfaced threat of nuclear devastation of US and Israel, no minced words.

They will then look back in time to 2010-2020 and wonder why the hell the US was engaged in dozens of military efforts but not the most important one! So that Seoul isn't bombed or China aggravated?

Then Mossad's spies will realise Hezbollah is planning to get nukes into Lebanon and Syria to counter israeli aggression. Meanwhile the iranians will be financially propping up the N.Korean regime against embargos.

But, hey, Kim Jong Un isn't a "nut-job", so there's that consolation.

 

[STURM]

I don't understand what diplomacy can achieve.

Everybody wants something. The North Koreans obviously have their concerns, insecurities, etc - not only the U.S, Japan and South Korea. It's not as if the North Koreans have made clear that there's no room at all for negotiation and it's not as if the North Koreans haven't made concessions in the past. My point is that as part of any deal; North Korea obviously has to get something in return for a freeze in the nuke programme or something
along the lines. They have to be convinced that nobody has any pans for regime change in Pyongyang.

The U.S. simply can't have a ''my way or no way at all'' approach because that will fail. All the sanctions so far, plus the rhetoric and talk of war has failed to deter North Korea. It is also plainly clear that the U.S. can't deal with North Korea alone. China's help is essential and China also has it's concerns. The alternative to diplomacy is a strike on North Korea which may or may not actually damage its nuke facilities.The North Koreans respond and a full scale war erupts with other countries entering the picture. Nukes are used and millions die; not only in North Korea ...

This will set a precedence, too.

Actually it doesn't. India and Pakistan got away with it but times were different of course and the U.S. either didn't apply the needed pressure, didn't have the political will or couldn't - some might argue that there's a much higher chance of nukes being used in an Indian/Pakistani war than on the Koran peninsular. Then of course there's also Israel but almost nobody talks of Israel's nukes - U.S. administrations have a policy of not saying anything about Israel's nukes.

North Korea no doubt is different to India, Pakistan and Israel in that the leadership behaves in a very different manner [irrational, unpredictable, makes threats, etc] but before we talk about a possible use of nukes by North Korea; we first must ask why the North Koreans would resort to such a drastic measure; a measure that would lead to their utter destruction ....

They will then look back in time to 2010-2020 and wonder why the hell the US was engaged in dozens of military efforts but not the most important one! So that Seoul isn't bombed or China aggravated?

China can't be ignored; it's a vital and powerful player. China being '''aggravated'' is the least of concerns. China doing other things, apart from bering ''aggravated'' to protect its interests in the event of U.S. action against North Korea is the worry .... With regards to Seoul being bombed : if you lived in Seoul would you be in favour of a U.S. strike on North Korea?

[South Korea's Moon: I'll Meet Kim 'At Any Time, At Any Place']
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/07/asia/moon-jae-in-south-north-korea/index.html

But, hey, Kim Jong Un isn't a "nut-job", so there's that consolation.

If he really was an irrational nut job who makes rash decisions based on how well he slept the previous night or whether he argued with his wife; missiles would already have been launched for real and we'll be seeing U.S. and South Korean troops conducting humanitarian ops on North Korean soil .... or we might be seeing a Korean peninsular totally devastated and uninhabitable by nukes with radiation also reaching China, Japan and North Korea.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

All things considered, Iran could get nukes from next door Pakistan a lot easier than from NK, if at all. Kim Jong Un is in no way more irrational, if at all, than Trump himself. I doubt that NK has nuclear tipped IRBMs yet, as their bigger ICBM is still being tested. China is now as much within range of their BMs as SK, Japan, & Guam. That's why there isn't much China can do short of a preemptive invasion & regime change- the latter, if planned, failed at KL airport. China won't invade NK unless the US makes the 1st move.

 

[STURM]

All things considered, Iran could get nukes from next door Pakistan a lot easier than from NK

Pakistan has nothing to gain from giving Iran nukes; doing so would be highly damaging. It has clearly taken the side of Saudi Arabia in the Shia/Sunni Cold War being waged and benefits from Saudi aid. Such a move would also get Pakistan in trouble with Uncle Sam whom Pakistan also depends on for aid. In the past the worry for the West was that Pakistan would gift nukes to other Muslim countries but that was never likely; not only has the geo-political environment changed but the AQ Khan network is no longer functioning. Also, with regards to the possibility of Pakistan providing Iran with nukes; given the aid provided by China to Pakistan, the reliance Pakistan places on China as a counterweight against India and the fact that various Pakistani missiles are reported to be reverse engineered Chinese ones; Pakistan would not risk angering China.

I doubt that NK has nuclear tipped IRBMs yet, as their bigger ICBM is still being tested.

Yes many are of the opinion that they still aren't able to fit a nuke warhead into a missile but who's to say that the North Korean don't have nuclear devices that can fit into briefcases which can be smuggled into other countries?

Amidst all this talk and concern - rightly so - about North Korea's nukes it's often forgotten that another country will soon join the exclusive ICBM club having already conducted tests : India.

[India Missile Test: Wake Up, Washington!]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-margolis/india-missile-test_b_1441128.html

[India Tests Nuclear-Capable ICBM]
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/26/asia/india-icbm-test/index.html

[India's Nuclear Riddle - People & Power]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCh_ZqKj1lQ

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Good points! Iran has enough conventional means to defend itself already. OTH, China is now having more troubles with India . If the USA, Japan & India form a de-facto alliance, besides the ongoing S China Sea standoff, NK related issues will become even more acute for the PRC. China hardens stance on Sikkim, rules out Modi-Xi G20 talks

NK is their ace in the hole. A 2nd front on the cheap. All they have to do is ensure this guy doesn't actually fire off any of his nukes and he will remain a useful fool both diplomatically for China to get concessions and strategically as being a somewhat deranged threat with a history.

For the PRC, NK is now becoming more of a problem than a solution. For the US, the only feasible alternative to an all out war on the peninsula is to start withdrawing its troops from SK & Japan while allowing both go nuclear. China was actually benefiting from the US presence there as it was restraining them against each other, NK & China. with nukes, no one will risk to upset the new balance.

 

[USAF77]

My summary of this discussion.

It has been shown many times in History its very possible to brain wash an entire population to believe stuff we in the "free west" would consider ridiculous. The Japanese were indoctrinated in a Nationalist/Fascist/Rascist form of International Militarism since the start of the Meji and it bloomed during their war with Russia so that by the time they attacked China they were a Nation,family totally convinced it was their duty to die should the Emperor order it.

I compare NK to Japan of the '30s. Both Led by ruthless leaders, both Police States that hammer any hint of individual thought with citizens brain washed since child hood. And both having a value system we in the West dont really understand which makes it all even more dangerous. They would march south into the fire, or embrace it, if ordered to. Without question.

As for China I think those in the West who actually expect meaningful help from them are naive. To the Chinese NK is a useful coral reef to extend their defense perimeter on, and again I compare THEIR strategy to that of Japans in WW2. NK ties down a whole lot of Allied troops and equipment in Asia. Even in the event of war with China NK would tie them down and that, to them, is a very useful strategy.

NK is their ace in the hole. A 2nd front on the cheap. All they have to do is ensure this guy doesn't actually fire off any of his nukes and he will remain a useful fool both diplomatically for China to get concessions and strategically as being a somewhat deranged threat with a history.

Regarding Iran its no great technological leap to make the bomb anymore. All you need is the weapons grade material and the will to ride out the storm. Both Pakistan and India did, the economic sanctions finally eroded away. India was in a stronger economic position to do so and Pakistan was in the stronger Diplomatic/strategic position.

Iran has neither, thus their plan is long range and takes the long view. Sanctions were really hurting them and they know they have to build their conventional forces and grow their economy before they can endure the manure storm the bomb will bring. Which will include a Military attack by Israel or America or both.

 

[USAF77]

Once you can make a reliable ICBM it then becomes relatively easy to start loading them with counter measures that will defeat a ABM system. Most of all for an ICBM because its going so fast by the time of engagement. A few mylar wrapped balloons could defeat our anti-ICBM systems.

Its no real secret we set up our THAAD tests to make a successful intercept as likely as possible. So yes I do believe a NK ICBM can get thru.

I am sorry for not being well informed on the subject, but I really do not see what the big deal with NK is. Like do we REALLY need to go to war with them?


Don't we have anti-missile shields, both land and sea based systems that blanket NK?

Let's say they launch their 1 nuke...........do you guys really see it hitting it's target? USA would instantly engage it with THAAD and whatever anti-missile systems that are onboard the US ships that are in the area.

 

[STURM]

it has been shown many times in History its very possible to brain wash an entire population to believe stuff we in the "free west" would consider ridiculous.

Well I'm not included in the ''we'' as I'm not in the West and nor am I Western but the fact remains that Western populations have also been exposed - albeit much lesser - to other forms of ''brain washing'' [if that's the right word] over the decades and more recently.

As for China I think those in the West who actually expect meaningful help from them are naive.

To actually think that a solution can be found without China's help or participation is what's really naive. Given that China is an emerging power and that it has a border and influence with North Korea; any peace deal or negotiations will have to include Chinese participation. Just like the West; China is also worried about recent developments. In the past the North Koreans would never do anything major without Chinese approval or the Chinese at least being forewarned but times have changed. The Chinese obviously will try to bring the North Koreans to heel and China - compared to other countries - has more bargaining chips with the North Koreans.

Which will include a Military attack by Israel or America or both.

The Shah wanted nukes because of the Soviets and because he wanted Iran to be regional power. Later the Iranians - under the mullahs - restarted their nuke programme when word got out that Saddam was making progress in this area. The Iranians in the past were also worried that Saudi would acquire nukes, either from China or via the AQ Khan network.

[The Full Story of Iran's Nuclear Program]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmAL4SaGA0s

 

[USAF77]

Well I'm not included in the ''we'' as I'm not in the West and nor am I Western but the fact remains that Western populations have also been exposed - albeit much lesser - to other forms of ''brain washing'' [if that's the right word] over the decades and more recently.

Without question. Were going thru one right now where most news reported is leftist and/or biased in some way. Even as current as the 1930's a western Christian Democratic Nation was talked into looking the other way by propagandists as millions of their countrymen were murdered on an Industrial Level. The fact is most opinion is formed based on what news your exposed to.

Of course a Militarist Police State takes it to an entirely new Level as I found out personally in Martial Law Turkey where I was stationed in the Late '70s. And where I saw a NATO Democracy over thrown by the Army and in a Nation of 20 m there were over 600,000 arrested, over 230,000 were tried by Military tribunals, many thousands "dissapeared", hundreds hanged, tens of thousands tortured, and 1.5 m blacklisted from employment and/or residency.

To actually think that a solution can be found without China's help or participation is what's really naive. Given that China is an emerging power and that it has a border and influence with North Korea; any peace deal or negotiations will have to include Chinese participation. Just like the West; China is also worried about recent developments. In the past the North Koreans would never do anything major without Chinese approval or the Chinese at least being forewarned but times have changed. The Chinese obviously will try to bring the North Koreans to heel and China - compared to other countries - has more bargaining chips with the North Koreans.

True again. China would have to be involved. But dont kid yourself, they could change things in a day by turning off the fuel/food spigot...If they wanted to. They could easily foster an over throw of this guy. Again, if they wanted to.

The Shah wanted nukes because of the Soviets and because he wanted Iran to be regional power. Later the Iranians - under the mullahs - restarted their nuke programme when word got out that Saddam was making progress in this area. The Iranians in the past were also worried that Saudi would acquire nukes, either from China or via the AQ Khan network.

Yes. The Shah was very keen on getting nukes and delivery systems. Heres a nation drowning in oil and the Shah wanted some ridiculous amount of reactors for an energy program no doubt with the belief the western powers would then back him when he made a bomb. Hell they were the only country in the world, under the Shah, who we'd sell F-14s and their TS missiles to so I guess its safe to assume The Shah thought the West wouldn't break relations over the bomb.

I'll watch the Doc when I have a minute.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I would say US action is now very much unlikely given the actions at G20.

It would seem by default that the US is willing to withdraw out of Asia.

Nocookies | The Australian
Google search: Failure on north Korea exposes loss of US leadership.

"Retired major general Jim Molan said western allies had to publicly show they were prepared to take military action to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities “or we’re just pussies.”"

Australian Strategic Policy Institute executive director Peter Jennings said “the US has no strategy for the North beyond trying to make it China’s problem.”

“It’s an extraordinary moment of flux, and weakness … normally you would expect a common *approach on North Korea,” *Professor Barton said.

The comments get more scathing from there on wards. There was some hope either the US mil or the US intelligence communities could make the Trump administration and the broader US political leadership move on this issue, that backfired. It's now clear both are in the cold when it comes to communicating legitimate concerns to the president. The US is going to have to live with the consequences of this inaction for a long time.

If you are going to stick a pin in the point of US decline as a global power, this is it.
G20 summit: who will take the US's place as a global leader?

I know that most of the press are focused on the US walking away from the Paris agreement, I would rank the inaction on NK much above that.

 

[STURM]

China would have to be involved. But dont kid yourself, they could change things in a day by turning off the fuel/food spigot.

China wants stability in the Korean peninsular. It wants to concentrate on its economy and other areas without having to worry about the Korean peninsular. To be fair; it's not as if they haven't done anything to try to get the North Koreans to ''behave''. What the Chinese say about the need to reduce tensions has merits. It's not only the North Koreans which have to taken certain steps to reduce tensions but others also. Whilst the U.S, Japan and South Korea feel threatened; so do the North Koreans who have always been paranoid and insecure to begin with.

The Shah thought the West wouldn't break relations over the bomb.

He was right. Given how the West was so busy buttering upthe oil rich Shah and the vital role pre-revolutionary Iran played during the Cold War; I very much doubt the West would have raised much of a fuss if Iran went nuclear. The West after all does have a very selective policy in deciding who can have nukes and who can't.

 

[Toblerone]

Reducing tensions with N.Korea will mean they can continue funding their research and conducting tests until they declare they have the capability to strike the major US cities. Then we get into the territory of MAD.

North Korea will be untouchable militarily and no matter what military coups or revolutions take place in that desperate country's embargo future, there is no way to control who's finger will be on the red button.