New Coronavirus threat

[Todjaeger]

And the hits just keep on coming.

It has now been confirmed that the US state of Georgia, which was the last to do a shutdown and first to reopen, had been massaging the data reporting to justify reopening so early, and apparently has continued to massage the data.

The reporting methodology has been to record the confirmed positive case date on the projected date a case became infected, and not the actual date that the test was administered, or the date the test was processed and confirmed. While this information could help infectious disease researchers with some modeling, it also completely skews other disease models. Basically the only way to accomplish this type of date recording is by backdating the data. This in turn inflates the # of cases to dates already passed, while reducing the number of confirmed cases for the current date and more recent dates. In effect, it makes the # of confirmed cases appear to be declining when in reality, the cases which will get recorded for today's date will be actually swabbed about two weeks from now.

Reportedly the recording method will now be changing 'soon' due to symptom-onset dates becoming less relevant as more asymptomatic (or possibly pre-symptomatic) cases get tested.

 

[John Fedup]

This article illustrates the problem COVID will pose until an effective vaccine arrives. Any ease up in restrictions at this point will just begin a new surge.

Polls here suggest 50% of parents don’t feel comfortable having their children return to schools and 40% of teachers feel the same about returning to classrooms. Two major school boards oppose Ontario’s split between online and reduced class time. This approach would mean children would be exposed to a wide variety of other children from their daycare centres besides their regular classmates making contact tracing much more complicated.

Surge in COVID-19 cases linked to private indoor gatherings, reopenings across Canada

Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia are experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[John Fedup]

The last paragraph in this link will be likely ignored by the Donald wrt to restarting the economy. I think it is fair to say many other leaders are pondering which is worse, a long term economic collapse or a 1-3 year culling of the human population. The other crisis may be the decision to mandate vaccination with rapidly produced vaccines with less than ideal validation. Glad I am not having to make the call on this, it is not easy.

Largest Seroprevalence Study in US Shows Vast COVID-19 Undercount

Actual cases may be as much as 6 to 24 times higher than reported, but we’re still a long way off from herd immunity.

www.the-scientist.com

 

[hauritz]

The last paragraph in this link will be likely ignored by the Donald wrt to restarting the economy. I think it is fair to say many other leaders are pondering which is worse, a long term economic collapse or a 1-3 year culling of the human population. The other crisis may be the decision to mandate vaccination with rapidly produced vaccines with less than ideal validation. Glad I am not having to make the call on this, it is not easy.

Largest Seroprevalence Study in US Shows Vast COVID-19 Undercount

Actual cases may be as much as 6 to 24 times higher than reported, but we’re still a long way off from herd immunity.

www.the-scientist.com

From the outside it looks like the US has pretty much just left the virus to run its course and pinned its hopes on vaccination being pushed through as quickly as possible. The cynic in me thinks that ready or not, some vaccine will be rushed out before the November elections.

As for herd immunity, here is a formula for calculating it.

herd immunity = 100 - (100/R0)

R-naught is the reproduction rate and of course, that is difficult to ascertain, but early on it was estimated at 5.7. There is almost certainly an under-reporting of infections so who knows what the actual number is.

At 5.7 however, you would need more than 82.5% of the population to have immunity in order to attain herd immunity. If you can get the R-naught down to 2 then you would need more than half the population to be immune to control it.

 

[ngatimozart]

The evidence so far suggests that COVID-19 herd immunity isn't a viable proposition at the moment. Sweden's experience seems to support that. The problem with the US is that the political discourse there is so dysfunctional and partisan that if two dogs walked down the street and one farted, one side or the other would create a political song and dance about it. And that political dysfunction has crippled the US response to the pandemic.

EDIT: Text error in first sentence changed from "... herd immunity is a viable proposition ..." to read "... herd immunity isn't a viable proposition ...".
Ngatimozart 24/7/2020.

 

[Boagrius]

The evidence so far suggests that COVID-19 herd immunity is a viable proposition at the moment. Sweden's experience seems to support that.

Do we know yet if exposure and subsequent recovery from COVID19 reliably provides lasting immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus though? My understanding is that early signs were not encouraging in this regard (ie. immunity does not last long). A decent write-up on the subject here:

Study raises questions over long-term COVID-19 immunity

Antibodies in previously infected patients dropped substantially after two to three months.

www1.racgp.org.au

The problem with the US is that the political discourse there is so dysfunctional and partisan that if two dogs walked down the street and one farted, one side or the other would create a political song and dance about it. And that political dysfunction has crippled the US response to the pandemic.

Agreed. Not sure whether to laugh or cry at this one mind you

 

[DDG38]

The evidence so far suggests that COVID-19 herd immunity is a viable proposition at the moment. Sweden's experience seems to support that. The problem with the US is that the political discourse there is so dysfunctional and partisan that if two dogs walked down the street and one farted, one side or the other would create a political song and dance about it. And that political dysfunction has crippled the US response to the pandemic.

Which evidence are you referring to ? Cause the Swede's own data doesn't reflect that herd immunity is a viable option (Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts). There's still an awful lot we don't know about this virus, and there are indications that the recovery period is much longer than thought and can impact on multiple organs. We are a long way from being out of the woods yet.

 

[hauritz]

Too many unknowns to predict the effectiveness of herd immunity. Every year the flu virus sweeps through countries like Australia and I have yet to see any evidence of the flu rates dropping as a result of vaccinations and herd immunity. The only thing that actually seems to work is social distancing.

Looking at this graph for the flu infection rate for Australia it is a pretty clear indication of how effective social distancing is and perhaps how potentially bad COVID 19 could have been without distancing. Notice the flu rate has pretty much dropped to zero since March.

https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/20Jul-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf

The scary thing in my mind is that the coronavirus doesn't seem to be seasonal plus evidence is that it is far deadlier and more infectious than the flu.

 

[cdxbow]

Which evidence are you referring to ? Cause the Swede's own data doesn't reflect that herd immunity is a viable option (Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts). There's still an awful lot we don't know about this virus, and there are indications that the recovery period is much longer than thought and can impact on multiple organs. We are a long way from being out of the woods yet.

There may never be herd immunity. Last paper I looked at only 17% of folks had an adequate antibody response existing at 3 or 4 months. Herd immunity, if you'll pardon the pun, may be a unicorn. There are about 3 common families of Coronavirus that circulate mostly over winter and cause nothing more than colds, to none of them, do we develop long standing immunity. It may be a problem with vaccines, we will have to wait and see.

 

[ngatimozart]

Which evidence are you referring to ? Cause the Swede's own data doesn't reflect that herd immunity is a viable option (Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts). There's still an awful lot we don't know about this virus, and there are indications that the recovery period is much longer than thought and can impact on multiple organs. We are a long way from being out of the woods yet.

Bugger typo. Should read "... herd immunity isn't a viable proposition ...". Thanks for pointing that out. I have edited my original post to correct my error.

 

[John Fedup]

There may never be herd immunity. Last paper I looked at only 17% of folks had an adequate antibody response existing at 3 or 4 months. Herd immunity, if you'll pardon the pun, may be a unicorn. There are about 3 common families of Coronavirus that circulate mostly over winter and cause nothing more than colds, to none of them, do we develop long standing immunity. It may be a problem with vaccines, we will have to wait and see.

I think there must be lingering concern about this loss of antibodies after such a short period of time and what the consequences will be wrt to effective vaccines. Considering the amount of organ damage and long term symptoms COVID can cause, people will likely put up with annual or semi-annual booster shots. The possibility of endless waves of COVID infection will be a political and economic nightmare.

 

[Todjaeger]

Too many unknowns to predict the effectiveness of herd immunity. Every year the flu virus sweeps through countries like Australia and I have yet to see any evidence of the flu rates dropping as a result of vaccinations and herd immunity. The only thing that actually seems to work is social distancing.

Looking at this graph for the flu infection rate for Australia it is a pretty clear indication of how effective social distancing is and perhaps how potentially bad COVID 19 could have been without distancing. Notice the flu rate has pretty much dropped to zero since March.

https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/20Jul-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf

The scary thing in my mind is that the coronavirus doesn't seem to be seasonal plus evidence is that it is far deadlier and more infectious than the flu.

The influenzavirus is a bit of a different case, in that it mutates readily and there are over a hundred known varieties at present. These reasons are why this type virus is seasonal and herd immunity is difficult to achieve. The variant which is prevalent for one specific flu season is probably going to be sufficiently different from the most prevalent variant in the next season so that it does not provide much if any immunity at all.

It was interesting to learn though, that the flu vaccine developed in response to the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic did turn out to provide some immunity to the cultured examples of the 1918 influenzavirus pandemic, when that type of H1N1 was cultured from samples taken within the last decade from the remains of deceased Alaskan natives who died during the 1918-1920 flu pandemic. While both were H1N1-type influenza viruses, they were still somewhat different.

 

[swerve]

There's a theory that one reason for the higher death rate among young people (reversing the norm) in the 1918 flu pandemic, in which my 22 year old, fit, & otherwise healthy Danish great-grandfather died, leaving a young widow & a baby daughter, was that it was similar to the flu variety which caused a pandemic in the 1890s, & older people had some protection from surviving exposure to that.

 

[swerve]

There may never be herd immunity. Last paper I looked at only 17% of folks had an adequate antibody response existing at 3 or 4 months. Herd immunity, if you'll pardon the pun, may be a unicorn. There are about 3 common families of Coronavirus that circulate mostly over winter and cause nothing more than colds, to none of them, do we develop long standing immunity. It may be a problem with vaccines, we will have to wait and see.

Antibodies ain't the only immune system component primed by previous exposure. There are many elements of an immune response, including cells which make antibodies, which can pump 'em out quickly in response to a new infection if there's still a memory of the previous one. They're harder to test, I think.

Still, I'd feel better if there was evidence of persistent raised antibody levels.

 

[Todjaeger]

There's a theory that one reason for the higher death rate among young people (reversing the norm) in the 1918 flu pandemic, in which my 22 year old, fit, & otherwise healthy Danish great-grandfather died, leaving a young widow & a baby daughter, was that it was similar to the flu variety which caused a pandemic in the 1890s, & older people had some protection from surviving exposure to that.

Interesting idea, but would not seem to fit with the data known now about the 1918 influenza pandemic, as well as what has been postulated about the 1889-1890 pandemic.

The influenza A virus type responsible for the 1918-1920 pandemic has been recreated from samples taken from an Inuit victim of the pandemic who was buried in the permafrost in Alaska. Genetic sequencing has since determined that the 1918 influenza pandemic was caused by a subtype of an Influenza A H1N1 (avian) virus. Animal testing off the recreated virus using monkeys observed the monkeys dying due to cytokine storms, which was observed (or at least the symptoms of it) during the pandemic, and would also at least partially explain why people who were younger and would normally be considered 'healthier' would have a higher than expected mortality rate.

At present the actual agent responsible for the 1889-1890 contagion remains unknown, though it had been speculated back in the early 1920's that survivors of that pandemic received some benefit during the 1918 pandemic but I have my doubts about that.

Based off subsequent research, it had been suggested that the contagion from 1889 was an influenza A H2N2 back in the 1950's, then in 1999 it was put forth that it was caused by influenza A H3N8. More recently it has even been suggested that the pandemic might have been caused by a human coronavirus HCoV-OC43, which appears to have split off from a common bovine coronavirus ancestor ~1890. Given that there cattle herds around the world were being impacted by a highly infectious respiratory disease with a high mortality rate, that is another plausible cause for the 1889 pandemic.

What I do find notably different between the 1889 and 1918 pandemics is that while the number/percentage of those infected appear to be in the same (very broad, given the record keeping as well as sheer numbers) ranges, the CFR for the 1918 pandemic is significantly higher. Fairly conservative estimates would put the 1918 pandemic having a mortality rate of ~x10 that of the 1889 pandemic. That sort of difference, in a later pandemic, suggests to me that there was little if any immunity protection afforded to survivors of the 1889 pandemic, assuming it was even caused by an influenza A type virus. IMO it would have been more likely that others factors, would which have helped someone survive the 1889 pandemic, might have still also been present for/in people who then also became infected with the influenza A virus in the 1918 pandemic.

Come to think of it, that gives me a research idea.

 

[StobieWan]

Got some interesting developments in terms of SARS apparently conferring an immunity to Covid-19 via T cells - might partly explain why some of the SEA countries did so very well in dealing with Covid-19:

SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls - Nature

SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells were found in individuals who had recovered from SARS or COVID-19 and in unexposed donors, although with different patterns of immunoreactivity.

www.nature.com

There's also evidence that SARS affected people still show immunity to SARS almost two decades later.

This might all be way less gloomy than the earlier predictions if true.

 

[Todjaeger]

Got some interesting developments in terms of SARS apparently conferring an immunity to Covid-19 via T cells - might partly explain why some of the SEA countries did so very well in dealing with Covid-19:

SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls - Nature

SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells were found in individuals who had recovered from SARS or COVID-19 and in unexposed donors, although with different patterns of immunoreactivity.

www.nature.com

There's also evidence that SARS affected people still show immunity to SARS almost two decades later.

This might all be way less gloomy than the earlier predictions if true.

Interesting thought, but it might be rather difficult to prove. There were about 8,100 confirmed & probable cases of SARS worldwide, with 774 deaths. Now I could certainly accept that there were additional, unconfirmed cases of SARS that for a variety of reasons were not included in the count, even if there were 10x the # of cases unconfirmed, I do not believe that would be a statistically sizable enough number for it to have made a measurable difference in how a SEA fared with SARS-CoV-2. At least, not from an anti-body/immune system response level. Given that the study also mentioned apparently detecting SARS-CoV-2 specific T-cells in some individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19, or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients I have to immediately question whether the tests used to detect the T-cells were accurate, or making false positives.

 

[swerve]

Interesting idea, but would not seem to fit with the data known now about the 1918 influenza pandemic, as well as what has been postulated about the 1889-1890 pandemic.

The influenza A virus type responsible for the 1918-1920 pandemic has been recreated from samples taken from an Inuit victim of the pandemic who was buried in the permafrost in Alaska. Genetic sequencing has since determined that the 1918 influenza pandemic was caused by a subtype of an Influenza A H1N1 (avian) virus. Animal testing off the recreated virus using monkeys observed the monkeys dying due to cytokine storms, which was observed (or at least the symptoms of it) during the pandemic, and would also at least partially explain why people who were younger and would normally be considered 'healthier' would have a higher than expected mortality rate.
...

That seems likely in my great-grandfather's case. His death certificate says pneumonia. His widow (who died when I was in my teens) said that it started as flu, & the progression from classic influenza symptoms to respiratory distress caused by lung inflammation & fluid buildup, often with secondary bacterial pneumonia, is thought to have been common in the 1918 pandemic.

 

[John Fedup]

Some more information on anti-body defence against COVID, not encouraging.

Only Around 60% of Recovered COVID-19 Patients Develop Protective Antibodies

Scientists have found that only around 60% of patients who have had COVID-19 and recovered from it develop protective antibodies. They also showed that some antibodies even "assist" the virus in infecting host cells.

www.technologynetworks.com

 

[John Fedup]

Iran has under reported COVID infections and deaths according to the link attached. Absent is any mention of belt and road initiatives and military interactions with China that certainly introduced the virus to Iran. I wonder what Iranian leaders feel about Chinese silence at the beginning of the Wuhan outbreak. The genetic analysis indicates the virus mostly migrated east to west via Iran into Europe and then into North America.
Coronavirus: Iran cover-up of deaths revealed by data leak Data leak reveals Iran cover-up of Covid-19 deaths