New Coronavirus threat

[John Fedup]

Just watched Fareed Zakaria’s interview with Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong. Insightful and he provided an honest assessment of the duration, possibly hoping for herd immunity assuming minimal mortality (the short term solution) or waiting for a vaccine or effective therapy( long term).

 

[Todjaeger]

I have zero faith in any information coming out of China. Reports of thousands of burial urns still arriving in Wuhan would suggest China hasn't got anything under control other than its media.

There is another potential meaning though, and that the death toll as reported by the PRC has been considerably less than the actual death toll. I suspect the PRC has the situation contained better than the US does, not that that is saying all that much. I do agree though that the numbers as reported from the "usual suspects" of countries should be treated with some skepticism, but at this point I have similar thoughts about what gets said by some of the upper echelons of the current US administration.

 

[Todjaeger]

@seaspear the COVID-19 virus is not an airborne pathogen but a droplet pathogen. It's made clear in this NZ Ministry of Health Q&A COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) questions and answers. Now, I can't remember if it was you or someone else who I corrected the other day on this same point, but don't go spreading misinformation about it, OK.

Actually, I came across some evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can become an aerosol airborne pathogen. Here is a link to the NEJM article about it from 17 March, 2020.

That could explain a 'super-spreader' outbreak which occurred in Skagit County in northern Washington State following a church choir practice on 10 March, 2020. Apparently none of the 60 choir members who attended felt any of the symptoms of COVID-19 at the time of the practice, but by now 45 of the choir members have either been confirmed via testing to have COVID-19, been/are ill with the symptoms, or in case of three hospitalized and two dead.

And I still keep encountering people that I know that keep pushing for everything to be "business as usual" arguing that all the information in the media is just wrong and fear-mongering.

 

[At lakes]

I have zero faith in any information coming out of China. Reports of thousands of burial urns still arriving in Wuhan would suggest China hasn't got anything under control other than its media.

Further to the above. an article appearing on line suggesting that the death toll for Wuhan could be around 26000. I don't know the credibility of the article or the news outlet having never heard of them

Wuhan COVID-19 Deaths May Be in Tens of Thousands, Data on Cremations Show

 

[seaspear]

There seems by these articles some confusion on the actual transmission of the virus

Claims coronavirus can spread through the air

A senior Chinese official has said the virus can infect people via airborne transmission, but an Australian expert says more evidence is needed.

www1.racgp.org.au

Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations

Scientific brief

www.who.int

WHO Reviews 'Current' Evidence On Coronavirus Transmission Through Air

A scientific brief from the World Health Organization says "current evidence" points to infectious respiratory droplets passed in "close contact" situations, but some say it's too soon to be sure.

www.npr.org

Is it time as the article below suggests provide advice to everyone to wear masks in going to essential services like supermarkets

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[OPSSG]

Glad to see real help arriving in New York

1. An aircraft carrying personal protective equipment (PPE) donated by China, along with U.S.-purchased medical supplies, arrived in New York on 29 Mar 2020.

2. The plane is the first in a series of flights over the next 30 days organized by the White House to help fight the coronavirus, the White House said. Most of the purchases are from Asia including Malaysia and Vietnam.

3. The Chinese Embassy in the U.S. retweeted a report from Axios which said that 12 million gloves, 130,000 N-95 masks, 1.7 million surgical masks, 50,000 gowns, 130,000 hand sanitizer units, and 36,000 thermometers from China have arrived in the United States.

4. Along with the goods, Chinese company Huawei donated 10,000 masks, 20,000 articles of protective clothing, 10,000 gloves and 50,000 goggles to New York state.

5. Governor Andrew Cuomo confirmed the donation and thanked Huawei on Twitter.

6. People cheered the US Navy hospital ship Comfort as it sailed into New York on Monday, as a beacon of the national effort to stanch the coronavirus outbreak at its US epicentre as the number of cases soared. USNS Comfort will treat non-coronavirus patients, including those who require surgery and critical care, the Navy said.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Glad to see real help arriving in New York

1. An aircraft carrying personal protective equipment (PPE) donated by China, along with U.S.-purchased medical supplies, arrived in New York on 29 Mar 2020.

2. The plane is the first in a series of flights over the next 30 days organized by the White House to help fight the coronavirus, the White House said. Most of the purchases are from Asia including Malaysia and Vietnam.

3. The Chinese Embassy in the U.S. retweeted a report from Axios which said that 12 million gloves, 130,000 N-95 masks, 1.7 million surgical masks, 50,000 gowns, 130,000 hand sanitizer units, and 36,000 thermometers from China have arrived in the United States.

4. Along with the goods, Chinese company Huawei donated 10,000 masks, 20,000 articles of protective clothing, 10,000 gloves and 50,000 goggles to New York state.

5. Governor Andrew Cuomo confirmed the donation and thanked Huawei on Twitter.

6. People cheered the US Navy hospital ship Comfort as it sailed into New York on Monday, as a beacon of the national effort to stanch the coronavirus outbreak at its US epicentre as the number of cases soared. USNS Comfort will treat non-coronavirus patients, including those who require surgery and critical care, the Navy said.

The Netherlands has recalled 600,000 coronavirus face masks it imported from China after discovering they were faulty
The Dutch government has recalled over half a million face masks it imported from China after discovering that they were faulty.

The Netherlands said on Saturday that it had asked its hospitals to return around 600,000 face masks which health professionals are using to treat patients of the coronavirus.

“The mouth masks that are not satisfactory have been retrieved,”Holland’s Ministry of Health told Dutch broadcaster NOS.

The NOS reported that the faulty masks fail to meet safety requirements because they did not fit on the faces of doctors and nurses and were failing to prevent particles of the COVID-19 virus passing through.

One hospital worker quoted by the NOS said: “When they were delivered to our hospital, I immediately rejected those masks… If those masks do not close properly, the virus particles can simply pass. We do not use them.

“That is unsafe for our people.”

The Netherlands, like its European neighbours, has introduced strict social distancing measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Mark Rutte moved to close all bars, restaurants, and schools.

It had reported 9,762 confirmed cases of the virus and 639 deaths linked to it at the time of writing.

It is not the only European country to report receiving faulty equipment from China.

Microbiology experts in Spain this week said that rapid coronavirus tests that the country bought from the Chinese state are not consistently detecting positive cases.

Studies on these tests found that they had only 30% sensitivity, meaning they correctly identified people with the virus only 30% of the time, according to the Spanish newspaper El País.

Medical professionals in the Czech Republic have also said that rapid tests from China were not working properly.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coroanvirus-holland-recalls-over-half-a-million-masks-imported-from-china-2020-3

I have no idea if that report is real or not... but if it is a bit disturbing and if the US are importing them hopefully they check them over...

Luckily NZ has a company that produces the masks and other PPE gear and are ramping up production...

 

[OPSSG]

I have no idea if that report is real or not... but if it is a bit disturbing and if the US are importing them hopefully they check them over...

Guanxi a word that all who deal with China must learn. This news report illustrates a common mistake made by desperate or inexperienced procurement staff in Netherlands, when working with a new supplier (without a good track record or access to a trusted network).

1. Procuring from China has pitfalls and when the Chinese embassy, Huawei, or a reputable person (like Jack Ma), gives a donation of PPE, they would have screened out the unsuitable and unethical partners to ensure that quality standards are met. Sourcing from China requires experience and access to trusted networks that outsiders often do not have. It is a buyer beware country — that is why it is not simple to suddenly scale up when demand rises 100 to 200 fold.

2. This is also why Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner has to lay the ground-work for the donation of PPE to New York (under Project Airbridge, from China). Likewise smart procurement departments (like Singapore hospitals, who have their procurement network or Guanxi) that source from China, seek to establish long term and win-win relationships with their suppliers, where both parties understand Chinese, to enable the verification of scanned local Chinese documentation via email. This currency of mutual trust between buyer and seller is worth its weight in gold during a time of crisis.

3. A month before the crisis broke, Singapore Inc quietly stepped-up procurement, globally, for a wide range of products based on a table of essentials.

4. Spain and Philippines have reports of buying test kits that don’t work. But if you dig deeper, the Chinese embassy in Spain tweeted that Shenzen Bioeasy is not licensed to sell the product and is not included on a list of “recommended suppliers,” which its ministry of commerce offered the Spanish government. Despite the Chinese embassy’s clarification, China should take some of the blame, especially China's National Medical Products Administration (for its failure to regulate).

5. Spain’s health ministry said Shenzen Bioeasy products have been approved by European Union quality control agencies and that the “specifications of this test, at least of the lot that was received, do not correspond with EU quality certifications.”

6. The so called Philippines test kit scandal is even more inexcusable and I am even less sure of what is going on there. Given that the Korean (25,000 COVID-19 test kits) and Singaporean (43,000 COVID-19 test kits) donations — all the Pinoys had to do was place an order from these accredited companies (by Korea or Singapore). The issue may not be corruption or wrong doing in China but it more likely that corrupt Pinoys trying to make a fast buck by buying from non-accredited suppliers.

7. Moral of the story, smart buyers will learn to work with the local Chinese embassy (by choosing from their recommended list of test kit suppliers) instead of blaming them. Alternatively, order COVID-19 test kits from Korea or Singapore that make them.

8. IMHO, sometimes, it is not about accuracy of the test kit. How we swab, how we transport, how we process, can make a difference. Assuming all of that is done properly, not all patients will test positive (even when they have fever). At certain stages of the infection, the virus may be too few to be detected. In some patients, they may get virus from a deep nasal swab, while others from a throat swab. In some patients, they reportedly shed loads of virus when they have mild or no symptoms. In other cases, it is reportedly the reverse.

9. In addition, Temasek Foundation, Singapore has offered to provide 5,000 COVID-19 test kits (Fortitude Kit 2.0) to the Sri Lanka Ministry of Health. The donation was handed over by Benedict Cheong, Chief Executive of Temasek Foundation International to High Commissioner Sashikala Premawardhane on 20th March 2020 at the High Commission premises.

 

[OPSSG]

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Press Conference on 30 March 2020

China Daily: A couple of countries say the quick coronavirus test kits supplied by China are faulty and have produced inaccurate test results. What's your comment?

Hua Chunying: Many countries have recently been purchasing medical products in China. While satisfying domestic demands, we support export by companies with qualifications and credibility, and provide convenience in production, transport and customs clearance to facilitate foreign procurement and orderly exporting. Some countries raised purchasing demands via diplomatic channels, and we recommend qualified companies to the foreign buyers. As far as I know, we haven't received any complaints from the buyers about the products purchased via the above-mentioned channel.

Several countries raised doubts on the quality of products imported from China, to which our embassies responded at the earliest time possible.

For example, some Slovak officials questioned the reliability of the quick coronavirus test kits purchased from China. The Chinese embassy in Slovakia immediately contacted the manufacturer in China. They came to the preliminary conclusion that Slovak medical workers used these antigen test kits incorrectly with a preceding method applicable to nucleic acid testing, which led to the inaccurate results. Our embassy in Slovakia then issued a reminder on the correct use of different testing methods. Slovak foreign ministry thanked China for its help at a difficult time, appreciated China's assistance in exporting medical supplies to Slovakia, and expressed readiness to enhance cooperation and experience-sharing with China.

Also, in response to Philippine health official's remarks on the accuracy of China-provided aid of testing reagents, the health department made clarifications the other day that the test kits produce identical results with those provided by WHO, and that these quality products play an important role in the government's rapid response. It also expressed apology for the misunderstanding caused by relevant comments.

About the masks that the Netherlands claimed not meeting quality standards, after immediate contact and verification by the Chinese embassy, on the afternoon of March 29, Dutch officials told us that some of the masks purchased by Dutch agency companies are not suitable for medical workers in intensive care units, and the health department is consulting professionals to make sure whether these masks can be used by medical staff with less intensive protection requirements. The Dutch side thanked China for our support and help in its purchase and transport of Chinese medical supplies.

Indeed, many countries expressed their need to purchase medical products from China. A large number of Chinese manufacturers are working around the clock to help other countries save lives. Our sincerity and assistance is real. If problems occur in this process, the Chinese side will talk to relevant departments. Problems should be properly solved based on facts, not political interpretations. In fact, when we first began fighting COVID-19 at home, some of the assistance China received was defective, but we chose to believe and respect the kind intentions of these countries.

 

[John Fedup]

Something is seriously wrong when the West, Japan, SK, and probably India can’t collectively supply this stuff for our needs. What other key products would be unavailable in some other crisis, for example, transformers after a mass corona ejection from the sun similar to the 1859 event? We can’t blame everything on globalization however. The entire world absolutely gets failing grades for pandemic advance preparation. It’s not like this shit just came out of the blue (SARS, the 2009 H1N1, and Ebola should have been the wake up call).

 

[ngatimozart]

Something is seriously wrong when the West, Japan, SK, and probably India can’t collectively supply this stuff for our needs. What other key products would be unavailable in some other crisis, for example, transformers after a mass corona ejection from the sun similar to the 1859 event? We can’t blame everything on globalization however. The entire world absolutely gets failing grades for pandemic advance preparation. It’s not like this shit just came out of the blue (SARS, the 2009 H1N1, and Ebola should have been the wake up call).

It's called the market economy and globalization. Pure and simple.

 

[seaspear]

Perhaps there might be a case for the government to have in place strategis stockpiles of such medical ppe as needed for future events with long shelf lifes on various items it would not cost billions

 

[ngatimozart]

Perhaps there might be a case for the government to have in place strategis stockpiles of such medical ppe as needed for future events with long shelf lifes on various items it would not cost billions

That would be the sensible solution, but inevitability the stores would be drawn down and not replaced as the bureaucracy robbed Peter to pay Paul.

 

[John Fedup]

That would be the sensible solution, but inevitability the stores would be drawn down and not replaced as the bureaucracy robbed Peter to pay Paul.

Governments invest large amounts of money for national defence so considering the extent of the current crisis, I think most will invest for future pandemics and electorates will support this. Besides, the cost will only be a fraction of what we are willing to commit towards defence. More importantly, it also is necessary for defence, just look at what is happening on CVN Roosevelt.

 

[Todjaeger]

Perhaps there might be a case for the government to have in place strategis stockpiles of such medical ppe as needed for future events with long shelf lifes on various items it would not cost billions

The US does have a Strategic National Stockpile which includes PPE, and shipments from the SNS started getting distributed last week. Judging by the age and dates on some of the PPE, much of it seems to have been purchased around the time of the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, or perhaps just after it.

 

[John Fedup]

Another trade show cancelled, CANSEC 2020.

CANSEC 2020 cancelled because of COVID-19 – trade show to be held next year

Organized by the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries or CADSI, the show had been scheduled for the EY Centre on May 27-28.

ottawacitizen.com

 

[seaspear]

Interesting article suggesting that the virus will be investigated after claims from the U.S of its airborne transmission up to eight metres , this would challenge present social distancing and certainly suggest the W.HO was wrong to advise against the wearing of masks

Coronavirus: Expert panel to assess face mask use by public

Experts are set to assess the value of face masks in helping slow the spread of coronavirus.

www.bbc.com

 

[OPSSG]

Interesting article suggesting that the virus will be investigated after claims from the U.S of its airborne transmission up to eight metres , this would challenge present social distancing and certainly suggest the W.HO was wrong to advise against the wearing of masks

Coronavirus: Expert panel to assess face mask use by public

Experts are set to assess the value of face masks in helping slow the spread of coronavirus.

www.bbc.com

1. In prior posts, I have explained that the family of coronavirus (like SARS and COVID-19) as a virus molecule, is about 0.125 microns (but it often travels within larger particles when an infected person coughs or sneezes) and primarily transmitted in droplet form.

2. Even a N-95 mask only shields you from molecules bigger than 0.3 microns. Does that mean that N-95 masks don’t work to reduce the infection rate? Especially since the virus is smaller than the mask’s ability to filter out contaminants. But that is not the case, even in clinical settings. Go read my prior longer posts for context and also on the importance of sensible precautions to be taken by the general public, like hand washing and not touching your face is far more important — the coronavirus is more likely to be spread by surface contact — and IMHO spread by droplet contact from residual surfaces is far more dangerous than a cough spreading the virus via air borne particles (as the virus can linger for hours after an infected person leaves the room).

3. There is a context to generic WHO advice — which is not applicable to China (where mask wearing is mandated in public transport and many other places). Please do not strip away the context and engage in fear mongering. Of course:

(i) The wearing of masks via a cultural norm (as in Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan) will help protect the general public, a little more, but the priority must be providing masks (of N95 or equivalent efficacy) to healthcare workers.​

​

(ii) The wearing of masks will also help reduce the spread of a virus by the infected who are asymptomatic. But even if an asymptomatic person is infected, if he washes his hands often, he will reduce the rate of transmission by contact surface.​

​

(iii) The proper disposal of masks is also a risk to be managed. Littering of used masks is a risk factor to be managed in the sanitation business. What is the rate of littering in Australia compared to Singapore (as a cultural norm)? Every time you advocate a measure, there is also a down side.​

​

4. The Australian or American cultural norm of wearing shoes into a home, also presents as a risk factor (when compared to the Asian norm of taking off our shoes, when entering a home). If you want to continue this line of fear mongering, please at least bother with providing some context.

 

[Todjaeger]

1. In prior posts, I have explained that the family of coronavirus (like SARS and COVID-19) as a virus molecule, is about 0.125 microns (but it often travels within larger particles when an infected person coughs or sneezes) and primarily transmitted in droplet form.

2. Even a N-95 mask only shields you from molecules bigger than 0.3 microns. Does that mean that N-95 masks don’t work to reduce the infection rate? Especially since the virus is smaller than the mask’s ability to filter out contaminants. But that is not the case, even in clinical settings. Go read my prior longer posts for context and also on the importance of sensible precautions to be taken by the general public, like hand washing and not touching your face is far more important — the coronavirus is more likely to be spread by surface contact — and IMHO spread by droplet contact from residual surfaces is far more dangerous than a cough spreading the virus via air borne particles (as the virus can linger for hours after an infected person leaves the room).

3. There is a context to generic WHO advice — which is not applicable to China (where mask wearing is mandated in public transport and many other places). Please do not strip away the context and engage in fear mongering. Of course:

(i) The wearing of masks via a cultural norm (as in Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan) will help protect the general public, a little more, but the priority must be providing masks (of N95 or equivalent efficacy) to healthcare workers.​

​

(ii) The wearing of masks will also help reduce the spread of a virus by the infected who are asymptomatic. But even if an asymptomatic person is infected, if he washes his hands often, he will reduce the rate of transmission by contact surface.​

​

4. The Australian or American norm of wearing outside shoes at home, also presents as a risk factor (when compared to the Asian norm of taking off our shoes at home). If you want to continue this line of fear mongering, please at least bother with providing some context.

There are two things with this. The first, regarding the potential reach of 8 metres, was described by Dr. Fauci IIRC, as requiring something like an extremely energetic sneeze in order to expel projectile droplets that far. While this is something which could happen, this is not something which would be a normal occurrence.

The second has to do with the wearing of shoes inside one's home. I suppose that yes, most Americans do typically wear their shoes both inside and outside the home, there are a number of populations where this is atypical behavior. One of the obvious ones would of course be Americans with Asian heritage. Two other populations where this trend of taking off or changing footwear when entering their home is practiced are healthcare workers and first responders, EMS especially.

As a follow up to my post #186 from a few days ago regarding the potential for the SARS-CoV-2 virus to be transmittable via an airborne aerosol, I came across this article after some digging. The basic gist of the article is that, while we all emit particles when we talk, shout, sing, etc. there is a portion of the population that for reasons as yet unknown, emit significantly more particles than others when engaging in the same activities (talking, singing, etc.) and there is the suggestion that such people might more probably transmit infectious respiratory diseases and could possibly explain some instances of superspreaders.

Having said that, when in doubt... Stay home and wash your hands.

 

[seaspear]

I would deny that my post was in any way fear mongering but in response to debate in the U.S over the transmission range certainly now W.H.O is reviewing that report from the M.I.T of Prof. Bourouiba.
I would expect the forum readers are able to read for themselves the articles and consider their source and the various qualifications of people in this article and research further themselves to gain further context if this was an O.H.S forum which I have been a member of this subject would be discussed citing legislation and statistics ,and even in this there was very robust discussion amongst highly people qualified in the same discipline
I have included information on the propeties and requirements under Australian Standards for face masks to demonstrate the properties of the mask.and compliance with legislation

Study shows superiority of N95 respirators in protecting health workers against bacterial respiratory infections. » Influenza Specialist Group (ISG)

www.isg.org.au

http://direct.ch2.net.au/direct_static/product_documents/promo-53-Halyard%20Combined%20file%20ASTM%20infographic%20and%20standards.pdf