Some interesting developments today. One thing that kind of pops out is the alignment of Trump and Netanyahu statements. A longer version for Trump here (the most relevant part at the end):
Netanyahu:
A lot of uncertainty still, but the alignment, I think, is significant. As of now, it appears that the ground operation is off the table as far as the recovery of the HEU is concerned (which has significant implications!). Only yesterday the following was reported (to note, I cannot vouch for the validity of the claim):
It seems to be an interesting development, in my opinion. What does it mean though? It certainly implies the window for future operations down the line is fully open (loooong timetable including and Netanyahu singing the song about next week nukes all over again), but the current op is maybe wrapping up. It appears that the biggest implication here is that one cannot bomb the problem away and it has to be dealt with on diplomatic level via some kind of agreement (who would have thought?!). To reach such an agreement in today’s realities is virtually impossible: if Iran rejected the proposed terms before the war, they have even less incentive right now, with the leverage clearly established. Which is another problem, we now have Iran that knows it controls Hormuz. I saw some very reasonable people suggesting today that it should simply be accepted and the toll system would be preferable to continuation of the war in order to “open the strait” (likely impossible). While I couldn’t care less about their tolls and whatnot, this is a very negative development. This is, without a doubt, leaves us all in the worst position than previously. A strategic failure, and bigly so. For the Arabs in the Gulf, this should be completely unacceptable, which they have expressed yesterday (or the day before?). Ain’t nothing they can do about it though. The realities in some markets seem to be hitting home now. I think this is the first time that the stocks (still on cloud nine) and oil moved in the same direction after Trump’s announcement. Dow was up 2.5% on the day, while Nasdaq nearly 4 (probably a good time to short, but the VIX is a bit on the high side and the risk is significant on the longer trade; Friday puts looked pretty good though):
The oil traders, on the other hand, are finally getting accustomed to the realities of the situation:
This week, some will start losing big money for the first time on the futures that were sold just prior and just after the war began. This is a big deal. The Euros are advising their populace to work from home, take cold showers, travel less, and so on, in order to conserve energy because it is going to get expensive and for a while (even if the war ends today):
Energy commissioner says the oil crisis triggered by Iran war will bring lengthy upheaval, in a speech reminiscent of the Covid pandemic.
www.politico.eu
Imagine cutting one leg off all on your own initiative (RU), while having the other cut shortly after, when you think you have it all figured out, by the actions of your biggest ally, basically. What are you gonna do though.
Optimism of some individuals almost clouds over their stupidity:
Imagine posting that as a proof of open strait (TheY LoSt AlL tHe conTroL ThoUGh!), while the video is clearly showing 5 or 6 or whatever it is vessels passing through, all through the Iranian “checkpoint”, instead of dozens that usually sail on the other side of the island in the same timeframe, in normal circumstances.
More stupidity (they call it “insights”, apparently), but from more respectable organizations:
One would think that the failure they talk of would be bombing the country, while deceiving (or at least trying to) them into thinking they are still negotiating. Twice! Laughing. Killing their negotiators doesn’t help either (as was the case in the first strike the first time, almost or quite literally). Their entire thesis is dumb too. And they may be disappointed:
It was attained the first time, last year, according to the same genius, who also thinks he had already changed the regime because people in charge now are those he never heard of before and they are reasonable, in spite of being lunatics. Things would really be hilarious if they weren’t real.
Side note: I bought two pairs of shoes for my daughter last week. She tried them on and chose one pair, so I drove to the store to return the other pair and stopped at the gas station on the way back. I haven’t put a drop of gas into this vehicle since the war began and gave away the refund I got for the returned sneakers (plus $2 and change more) as the difference between the fill ups then and now. One would think this is not exactly optimal for lower-income individuals (it ain’t optimal for me either though) and more affected (and less well-off) countries especially. Seeding season in the northern hemisphere awaits and is just behind the corner (we still have about a month to go here).
www.bbc.com
