Depends on how Iran reacts of course. But assuming they activate the Houthis and close Bab al-Mandab, you'd lose the 3-4 million bpd that the Saudis can export through there. Of course you would lose everything the Iranians export through Kharg, but it's unclear how much they could divert to Jask. They're currently around 2 million bpd, maybe you could get 500k through Jask?
The other variable is Fujairah, where the UAE exports what they can. There have been strikes there but it's still operational. If the Iranians up the strike volume to the point of a shutdown, you lose an additional 1-2 million bpd.
So really you are talking about an additional supply disruption of around 5-7%
Now consider that Trump just lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and you have to wonder, why exactly would they want Kharg? Feels like a misdirection to me.
