The Iranian military has denied that any form of negotiations are taking place.
What we do know, I think, is that Trump has one and the same play every time and probably can make some predictions based on that. For instance, when he first put tariffs on China, China retaliated immediately, markets reacted just as fast, and Trump started “negotiating”, while China either denied the negotiations were taking place or remained silent through out the process. Basically Trump continued negotiating with himself, “correcting” the markets, promising some deal, until complete, then new term, but what is now known as, TACO. It has been the exact same play every time ever since. Best play for the opponent that can inflict pain is retaliate with the maximum pain and then do nothing until Trump comes to terms that are acceptable. The problem here is that Iran is getting trashed in the meantime, so the stakes are much higher and so is the incentive to deescalate as soon as possible, which is not necessarily the best strategy. Making things more complicated is the number of parties potentially involved on the Iranian side, though all appear to be hardliners and most more so than before.
Yesterday, the “leaked” 15-point (that has 14 points) proposal has shown some serious concessions by the US compared to its original reported position. The biggest one is, of course, the sanctions, presumably all sanctions will be lifted if Iran agrees to terms. This had never been on the table before. Second is the missile program: while previously the demand was a complete dismantling of the program, it would now be permitted, though with some significant limitations not yet reported.
It is pretty clear that at least 1, 3, 5, and 10 are not likely acceptable to Iran. 11 is nonsensical because Iran had never used its missiles otherwise. 7 and 8 are the same thing. 2, 4, and 6 already happened and had been a thing under the JCPOA, which Trump foolishly abandoned. 9 basically recognizes Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, which has already been accepted de-facto now.
14 makes no sense provided 12 takes place. 12 probably (?) cannot happen without the US congress involvement, which will take months and far from guaranteed to pass -> Israel and the US refills interceptor stocks in the meantime, while Iran’s ability to restore the missile production capabilities is likely constrained in the short term. The question of deterrence via closure of the strait remains to be key and forcing better/acceptable terms via maximum pressure - that is, keeping the strait closed - may be a more attractive alternative (ie, the scenario I described above - apply pressure and do nothing).
Of course, another viable explanation is pretend to negotiate while preparing for the next stage of hostilities and inclusion of sanctions relief clause provides for “see, I genuinely tried and they refuse to negotiate”, so the war will continue and we have to send our troops in, in spite of us being victorious already, but we have to finish the job.
Notably, according to CNN, Iranians have informed the US that they will not negotiate with Witkoff and Trump-in-law, but will with Vance, who is probably one of the most prominent we-should-not-have-done-it-in-the-first-place crew representative and has been completely sidelined here so far.
It’s a mess. Like almost everything else Trump touched since last January. We will see what happens. In the meantime, the gas price at the same pump here that I mentioned previously is up another 10 cents per litre since my previous post on the subject, meaning that the gas prices here are up about 64% since the war began.
When he said that and then asked… “Steven”, I think it was, he looked
exactly like he did when he talked about injecting bleach back in the covid days and asking someone about it, exact same expression and body language. That clearly says that he has no clue and does not understand what is happening. But to play along, the regime changed and more radical group of people with the same core beliefs ended up on top, the leader is now younger, has personal grudges on top of ideological bullshit, and so on.
I do not remember who, I think it was one of the American senators, who recently said that they will basically keep killing people until a Rodriguez comes along. My amazement and concern is that these people simply fail to recognize the differences between the two places and people and their priorities they are dealing with. It’s like they do not have knowledgeable advisors and do not consult expert community at all. It’s really weird stuff.
Anyway, have a good day/night, depending on where you are, y’all.
Edit: Regarding the 15-point plan:
Some of the reports are not entirely true, never confirmed, etc. It’s probably true, haha. Except the point #15 is missing.
