Middle East Defence & Security

crest

Active Member
Of all the wishful thinking going on right now (invading the Iranian coastline, escorting tankers, etc) I think this one takes the cake. I love the idea of sending in 1,000+ SOF guys on helicopters (plus paratroopers?) 500km into Iranian territory to take on a tunnel complex that is likely completely unmapped and filled with completely unknown numbers of IRGC. Of course the Iranians will know as soon as they arrive, if not sooner, and be able to throw drones/artillery at them. Oh yeah and then, should they somehow complete the insane mission, they have to get out, once again across Iranian airspace no doubt teeming with MANPADS.

Sounds like a recipe for 1000+ SOF casualties
The idea it's in one location is also ludicrous, they must also think its in a big box labeled "not uranium". Tactically I wonder if they have any answer for high tech defences like 2 foot thick steel doors and long hallways with defended posts perhaps close to the first set of doors.

On a more relivent topic

These tankers are imop the linchpin of the entire air campaign since neither the carrier groups or air bases show much inclination to operate close to Iran
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The idea it's in one location is also ludicrous, they must also think its in a big box labeled "not uranium". Tactically I wonder if they have any answer for high tech defences like 2 foot thick steel doors and long hallways with defended posts perhaps close to the first set of doors.
I think a lot depends on what kind of intelligence they have. I can see either scenario playing out. Special forces executing the mission with great precision and complete success, or it being a complete debacle with mass casualties.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I think a lot depends on what kind of intelligence they have. I can see either scenario playing out. Special forces executing the mission with great precision and complete success, or it being a complete debacle with mass casualties.
I don't think Iran, even with some good intelligence, is going to be as accommodating as Dalcy and what the US already has is a bad experience.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't think Iran, even with some good intelligence, is going to be as accommodating as Dalcy and what the US already has is a bad experience.
Yes.... but the US military is a very competent organization. And an operation like this plays to their strengths. It can be fairly rapid, delivering overwhelming force at the point of contact with the enemy, and backed up by all kinds of niche high-level capabilities that don't scale well but provide tactical overmatch. It's not a matter of accommodation. It's a matter of ensuring the enemy is disorganized, and you deliver overwhelming force exactly where it counts.
 

nraheston

New Member
Hezbollah's broad barrage
Iran:
IDF attacks forcefully in Lebanon pushback:
 

nraheston

New Member
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Welcome to defencetalk, in general we don't allow people to simply spam links to other resources. If you wish to discuss the materials provided, you need to post some of your own input with the links, not simply a link or a pure summary of it's contents.
 

crest

Active Member
Yes.... but the US military is a very competent organization. And an operation like this plays to their strengths. It can be fairly rapid, delivering overwhelming force at the point of contact with the enemy, and backed up by all kinds of niche high-level capabilities that don't scale well but provide tactical overmatch. It's not a matter of accommodation. It's a matter of ensuring the enemy is disorganized, and you deliver overwhelming force exactly where it counts.
Absolutely correct, the primary issue facing them I think would be lack of suprise (perhaps not at the point of contact) and preparation from the defender. The competence of Iran in preparation for u.s strikes has been demonstrated to in general be well thought out if not we'll executed.. on the other side of the coin as you said u.s special forces are extremely competent and not to be underestimated. But still I can't think of a harder thing for light forces to crack then a extensive underground complex that is aware a attack is a possibility and has prepared. Seriously just multiple sets of thick doors would be a huge issue
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Absolutely correct, the primary issue facing them I think would be lack of suprise (perhaps not at the point of contact) and preparation from the defender. The competence of Iran in preparation for u.s strikes has been demonstrated to in general be well thought out if not we'll executed.. on the other side of the coin as you said u.s special forces are extremely competent and not to be underestimated. But still I can't think of a harder thing for light forces to crack then a extensive underground complex that is aware a attack is a possibility and has prepared. Seriously just multiple sets of thick doors would be a huge issue
I have almost no knowledge about tunnel fighting so it's hard for me to comment specifically. In my mind, why go through the door? That's where they expect you. Put a hole in the wall and breach that way. Whether this logic can be applied to underground facilities, I don't know. Again what kind of intel is available might make all the difference. Do they have multiple sets of thick doors at all ways in or out? Or is there an entrance that's far easier to get in through? Did the Iranians rig their own complex to collapse sections in case it's breached? Was that even part of the planning for the facility? Or is it basically just a giant bomb shelter?
 

crest

Active Member
I have almost no knowledge about tunnel fighting so it's hard for me to comment specifically. In my mind, why go through the door? That's where they expect you. Put a hole in the wall and breach that way. Whether this logic can be applied to underground facilities, I don't know. Again what kind of intel is available might make all the difference. Do they have multiple sets of thick doors at all ways in or out? Or is there an entrance that's far easier to get in through? Did the Iranians rig their own complex to collapse sections in case it's breached? Was that even part of the planning for the facility? Or is it basically just a giant bomb shelter?
As far as I know these are underground facilities so putting a hole in the side is probably not a option (I'm assuming Iran would put there uranium underground like the rest of there valuable assets). I do know there is multiple entry and exits and that there is extensive planing and fortification overall
For the rest I don't know either and that's the point I mean if they took the effort to build all that it's hard to see how they don't take much simpler precautions.
I mean they had entire nuclear enrichment facilities down there, they have entire convoys of missiles and launchers these are not insignificant constructions. It's hard to believe there isn't things like doors or even underground barracks for protection
 

personaldesas

Active Member
Gulf states are burning through interceptors

The pace far outstrips that seen in Ukraine. Stocks are under severe pressure

Summary:

Ukraine claims that Gulf countries fired about 800 Patriot interceptor missiles in the first three days of the war with Iran, more than the roughly 600 Ukraine fired during four years of fighting Russia.

The figures were later clarified as estimates referring only to certain advanced Patriot variants, yet analysts say the overall scale appears plausible.

Based on reported interceptions of about 887 missiles and 2,581 drones, estimates suggest that between 1,900 and 3,000 Patriot interceptors may already have been used. Such heavy use could quickly deplete stockpiles, given publicly authorised purchase limits of roughly 1,800 Patriots for Saudi Arabia, 1,000 for Qatar, and 900 for the UAE.

Patriot interceptors cost around $3–6 million each, implying at least about $5.1 billion spent so far. Ukraine, which has far fewer interceptors available, increasingly relies on much cheaper solutions such as FPV interceptor drones costing roughly $2,500 to shoot down drones.

IMG_0930.jpegIMG_0929.jpeg
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I posted this in the Russia-Ukraine War thread but it has relevance here as well.


This TWZ article describes the Ukraine’s ban on inexpensive anti-drone munitions. Understandable given the Russian attacks but if excess supplies are available then perhaps the ban is a bargaining chip for getting longer range strike missiles.

 

nraheston

New Member
Welcome to defencetalk, in general we don't allow people to simply spam links to other resources. If you wish to discuss the materials provided, you need to post some of your own input with the links, not simply a link or a pure summary of it's contents.
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