Middle East Defence & Security

[personaldesas]

Petroline ramps up activity to bypass Hormuz blockage
Link

Saudi Arabia is activating a decades-old backup plan, pumping millions of gallons of oil across the desert to the Red Sea so tankers can load there, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
With the strait nearly closed, Iran targeting energy sites, and shipping in the Gulf stalled, the move is aimed at keeping oil flowing to global markets.

As I said before:

I’m wondering whether Iran might eventually target the Saudi and UAE pipelines that partially blunt the blockade, and how those countries would react if that happened.

Cause they're not out of reach:

 

[uguduwa]

in the midst of this, I find the Iranians in the west to be absolutely insufferable. They are still hung up to the idea of bringing this charlatan Pahlavi back as if it‘s not yet clear that this is impossible even in the wildest imagination.

 

[Ananda]

Perhaps depending on Houthis weapon inventory. I would have to think resupply is currently difficult.

I also see that way, Houthi's now is not in comfortable situation considering Iran is not in possition to support their Allies. They have to consolidate themselves, considering their Saudi back rival now gaining momentum.

the midst of this, I find the Iranians in the west to be absolutely insufferable. They are still hung up to the idea of bringing this charlatan Pahlavi back as if it‘s not yet clear that this is impossible even in the wildest imagination.

Not surprising considering the Persian communities (especially the youths) in West are decendances from Pahlevi regime elites (Military, Civil Officers and Business circles). They take a lot of money from Iran when the regime fall and basically living relative quite comfortably in Euro and US. Relative toward other political refugees from other deposed regimes.

I have meet some of them during my times in states. Most of them have superiority complex toward the rest of Iranians back home, which they consider ' uneducated peasents'. After all many of them still consider themselves as Persian Empire elites class.

 

[personaldesas]

in the midst of this, I find the Iranians in the west to be absolutely insufferable. They are still hung up to the idea of bringing this charlatan Pahlavi back as if it‘s not yet clear that this is impossible even in the wildest imagination.

Not surprising considering the Persian communities (especially the youths) in West are decendances from Pahlevi regime elites (Military, Civil Officers and Business circles). They take a lot of money from Iran when the regime fall and basically living relative quite comfortably in Euro and US. Relative toward other political refugees from other deposed regimes.

I have meet some of them during my times in states. Most of them have superiority complex toward the rest of Iranians back home, which they consider ' uneducated peasents'. After all many of them still consider themselves as Persian Empire elites class.

Personally, I find that far less insufferable than confidently explaining millions of people based on a few personal anecdotes.

 

[uguduwa]

I also see that way, Houthi's now is not in comfortable situation considering Iran is not in possition to support their Allies. They have to consolidate themselves, considering their Saudi back rival now gaining momentum.



Not surprising considering the Persian communities (especially the youths) in West are decendances from Pahlevi regime elites (Military, Civil Officers and Business circles). They take a lot of money from Iran when the regime fall and basically living relative quite comfortably in Euro and US. Relative toward other political refugees from other deposed regimes.

I have meet some of them during my times in states. Most of them have superiority complex toward the rest of Iranians back home, which they consider ' uneducated peasents'. After all many of them still consider themselves as Persian Empire elites class.

It‘s not just monarchists. There does seem to be considerable support towards him at least among Iranians abroad. For example, Iranians in Germany are not particular rich but still seem to support the bombing campaign in the hope that Pahlavi wouöd descend upon Tehran and magically raise the country from ashes. I find it amusing. The best csse scenario for ordinary Iranians at this point is that the conventional Iranian government prevails. Otherwise you are looking at a range of bad options from North Korea style repression to decades of civil war.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Trump is starting to threaten and blackmail.
Gets worse day after day.

European leaders reject military involvement in Strait of Hormuz

Pushback comes as US President Donald Trump says NATO allies should help secure key waterway amid soaring oil prices.

www.aljazeera.com

Iran, Kallas: "This is not the EU's war; for now, Aspides will not be extended to the Strait of Hormuz"

The EU’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, admits that Aspides is not the preferred option for resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Europe is playing the India card

www.eunews.it

 

[StingrayOZ]

Guys, can we be a bit more professional about the way we are using language and stereotypes. Iranian communities in western countries have often been built up over more than a century. Multiple waves of migration including before 1979. AFAIK There is no unified central command for Iranian diaspora.

This is not a political forum. Can we stick to defence topics.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Trump is starting to threaten and blackmail.

The realistic part is that a deployment to the middle east is an extremely difficult thing to support for most western navies. Europe, is still quite far from the middle east, and deploying to the gulf would require a long transit, and forces could perhaps be cut off if the conflict goes more global.

At home its almost impossible to support deployments of military equipment because of the way the war was started and the questionable/unclear aims of the war.

Many navies are currently focusing on upgrades. With increase defence spending often going to upgrading existing capability, that means existing capable has to be taken out of service to be upgraded.

A terrible time to start a war.

 

[SinisterMinister]

I thought the capture of Kharg was the main reason for the marine deployment. I'm surprised they weren't already in the area.

https://news.usni.org/2026/03/13/uss-tripoli-31st-meu-heading-to-the-middle-east

I read this week (I can't find the source currently) that it was proposed in a previous crisis, so it should have been part of the options from the get go. The marine contingent underway would be a suitable force to capture and control Kharg, which to my thinking gives Trump control of 90% (I believe) of Iran's oil export. Wouldn't this actually give him some real leverage over the regime?

If would give him far less than he has currently, actually. For one thing, he has semi-functional control over Iranian oil already. Every tanker that leaves with Iranian oil could easily be sunk or seized by the US navy. But doing so would exacerbate the oil supply crisis, because Iran would immediately stop sending them.

So what does Kharg do that seizing tankers would not? Nothing. At least by taking tankers they would get some physical oil out of it. Seizing Kharg gives them a bunch of Marines on an exposed rock within range of a plethora of Iranian munitions.

Oh and not to mention, if you want those amphibious ships carrying the Marines to, you know, land them on Kharg, they're going to have to go ... through the Strait of Hormuz. Uh oh

Only option is to land them in Oman and then stage a helicopter operation to land them on Kharg. But stage from where? All US bases in the region are under fire.

The whole thing is nonsense

 

[koxinga]

The realistic part is that a deployment to the middle east is an extremely difficult thing to support for most western navies. Europe, is still quite far from the middle east, and deploying to the gulf would require a long transit, and forces could perhaps be cut off if the conflict goes more global.

At home its almost impossible to support deployments of military equipment because of the way the war was started and the questionable/unclear aims of the war.

I wouldn't describe it is very difficult as we have seen similar deployments take place in the Red Sea such as CTF 153, and United States Ops Prosperity Guardian in 2023 and EU's contribution via Ops Aspides / EUNAVFOR.

But at a larger scale, against a nominally more capable and motivated opponent with much higher threat levels and will take far longer to to assemble and sustain.

There is simply no political desire to get involved and rightly so.

 

[hauritz]

I wouldn't describe it is very difficult as we have seen similar deployments take place in the Red Sea such as CTF 153, and United States Ops Prosperity Guardian in 2023 and EU's contribution via Ops Aspides / EUNAVFOR.

But at a larger scale, against a nominally more capable and motivated opponent with much higher threat levels and will take far longer to to assemble and sustain.

There is simply no political desire to get involved and rightly so.

Unfortunately the rest of the world is dependant on oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz. The choice might be to see world economy destroyed or send warships.

 

[John Fedup]

Unfortunately the rest of the world is dependant on oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz. The choice might be to see world economy destroyed or send warships.

I doubt adding warships would solve the problem. Either Iran loses the ability to produce strike munitions or boots on the ground to totally eliminate the theocracy. Neither seems likely. Trump has his new oil supply in Venezuela which could provide large amounts but no oil company wants to invest billions there because of security concerns. Even if they did, this is a long term solution. Trump created this $hitshow and much of the world (including allies) are turned off on America, something that will take years to fix.

 

[Feanor]

I doubt adding warships would solve the problem. Either Iran loses the ability to produce strike munitions or boots on the ground to totally eliminate the theocracy. Neither seems likely. Trump has his new oil supply in Venezuela which could provide large amounts but no oil company wants to invest billions there because of security concerns. Even if they did, this is a long term solution. Trump created this $hitshow and much of the world (including allies) are turned off on America, something that will take years to fix.

In theory enough warships could shoot down inbounds and allow civilian ships to pass safely. In theory.... in reality the US hasn't been able to prevent it's bases from getting hit, which raises questions about just how much can be done to protect ships.