Middle East Defence & Security

[STURM]

J&S means Judea and Samaria.

I was aware of that. You call it what you want; I'll call it the West Bank.

Propose an alternative..

Propose a way in which lifting the blockade would play out, preferably referring to the short term and long term separately.

Propose the solution.

Demanding chap aren't you? If you'd asked nicely instead of being so pushy like it was your god given right I'd obliged but no; also because what you're demanding to hear is stuff that fits your narrative and if it doesn't you'll twist and turn and give further displays of your skills at obfuscation and denials.

Israel extends an arm for peace. It has peace with Egypt and Jordan. It has peace with several others via the Abraham Accords. .

It has peace with Egypt and Jordan because both those countries share borders with Israel and both have very good reasons for doing so - it also wasn't one sided. Israel too benefited. As for the countries which signed the Abraham Accords they too had compelling reasons to do so and came under intense pressure from the Americans but like I've said; it's mostly comestics. Not as if their citizens had a say. We'll see if it actually leads to long term tangible benefits.

Your "Israel extends an arm for peace" is self serving fantasy. Gives the impression that it was Israel and Israel only [of course] that wanted peace and if it wasn't because of Israel there would have been no peace. Love peddling fantasy don't you ..

Lebanon is occupied by Hezbollah, but Israel still agreed to redraw its EEZ borders, giving Lebanon access to natural gas, which is a first step for peace in the post-Hezbollah era..

I know have a flair for the dramatics but Lebanon is not "occupied" by Hezbollah. It has a strong a deep rooted presence in the country but that's profoundly different from "occupied" - Hezbollah are also Lebanese. A more apt example of "occupied" would be the Golan Heights; the Sheeba Farms and other parts of Lebanese territories and the "occupied" Palestinian territories which of course Israel is just holding in trust until the "terrorist" Palestinians come to their senses.

But it cannot have peace with those who do not want it, nor can it force peace upon others..

Right. Your narrative is that Israel has long wanted peace and still does but the onus is completely on others. That simple.

If you only meant that Israel prefers to remain the only nuclear armed state in the region, then you have a real problem expressing your thoughts. There is a clear hostile tone, and it certainly doesn't aid your argument that your statement there was made in a vacuum - i.e. not related to anything I said.
So, explain how the two align

Actually I do quite alright expressing my thoughts; the problem occurs when certain individuals refuse to see or try to understand anything which doesn't fit it with their personal narrative. Also, yes I am convinced that Israel will do all it can to retain its nuclear monopoly.

I know from first hand how the average Israeli thinks, how the average Arab thinks, and I have experienced first hand what others in the region think.

So you think but there is no "ordinary Arab". In your mind maybe but in actuality there isn't. Even taking into account that you live in the region and have regular interactions with Arabs; claiming that there is such a thing as an "ordinary Arab" can be construed as condescending and arrogant.

I've been to practically every country in this region with the exception of Timor Leste and Brunei. I spend a lot of time in the Philippines and frequently go to Thailand. There are no "ordinary Asians"..

You keep parroting these blatantly racist lines of "Israelis are murdering children and Palestinians can do no wrong", but it doesn't do anything beside invalidating your own points.

Like I said; your reaction is highly telling - speaks for itself. Anybody who has the slightest criticism of Israel is a racist Jew hater right? That's a tune which has long been sung; the default reaction; typical.

It's preposterous to claim that criticism of Israel equates to racism and that Israel has absolutely no hand in any civilian deaths. Yes your view is that Arab children only die because of the actions of Arab adults - pure self-serving nonsense.

Yes, I think if Hamas and PIJ did not start wars, none would die. .

Yes Hamas and PIJ only resorts to armed violence because as Palestinians it's their inherent nature [like the schoolkids which you claimed are taught to kill Jews and the individual who apparent became a national hero]; from the day they're born they exist only to kill Israelis and Israeli actions [always benevolent and altruistic] have absolutely nothing to do with this.

Yes, I think foreign media loves parroting the line of dead children without understanding simple rules of war, or facts..

Naturally. We should all ignore foreign media which is not pro Israel. The ones which report anything which puts Israel in a bad light are nothing but "terrorist" sympathisers who don't understand "simple rules of war, or facts" [unlike you naturally] even if they're reporting from the scene. For the real truth we should just rely on IDF press releases and narratives from the likes of you.

You never tell what you think is the ultimate reason Palestinians die, and that in itself is quite telling of your true intentions..

[1] For you the " ultimate reason" Palestinians die has zero to do with Israel and all to do with them being nothing but "terrorists"' who are taught at school to kill Jews. Like you said the blockade on Gaza is not as bad as it sounds and that it's not an Israeli/Pakestnian problem but an Arab/Palestinian one. [2] You don't know shite about my intentions so don't assume or pretend you do. What are yours? Peddling a self serving and false Israeli narrative which includes branding anyone who refutes what you say a racist? Claiming that Palestinian children only die because of rockets which malfunction and because of being used as human shields but never due to IDF actions?There are thousands of people in Lebanon and the occupied Palestnian territories who would take strong exception with your claim of an always "precise" 'IDF.

I just said that entering Gaza as an Israeli is a sure way to get killed. What's that to do with the blockade?.

Why would they kill you? According to you it's all rosy there. Not an open air prison.

Doesn't help if you're only peddling absolutes..

Again absolutes. .

The Zucchini kettle should not be calling the Sturm pot black. Heard of the "look at yourself in the mirror" cliche?

Well then, if Israel doesn't want peace, what does it want?

I think it's reached a stage where with certain things Israel itself doesn't know.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Big_Zucchini & @STURM A while back one of the Moderators suggested that you two take this singular discussion of yours to the personal message domain. It's becoming repetitive. Now I would suggest that you do so please.

I really do commend you both on your civility discussing what is a highly emotive and divisive topic for many people. In that aspect it is an example to all of us. That's a big well done from me.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

@ngatimozart I apologize for getting repeatedly sidetracked.

@STURM It is quite obvious we not only share different opinions, but a different world-view, rooted in the everyday events of our entire lives. A limited debate over the internet isn't going to change that.


Zelensky expresses desperation at Israel's refusal to supply air defense systems to Ukraine.
Israel's Iron Dome has been of particular interest for Ukraine, and recently for many others, including reported deals with Cyprus and Romania, mainly due to its versatility - it was initially a C-RAM system, but later evolved to also defeat manned and unmanned aircraft, long range rockets (e.g. Smerch and HIMARS), cruise missiles, and loitering munitions as well.
Therefore an Iron Dome around Kyiv could shield it from practically anything that isn't a ballistic missile, removing the need for multiple different air defenses between the C-RAM and MRAD roles.

Previous factors for Israel's possible refusal may have been fear of leakage of sensitive technologies, Russian pressure on regarding Syria, and arms sales to Iran. And equally importantly Russia's potential to crack down on local Jewry.
With the partial mobilization coupled with the shuttering of the Jewish Agency offices in Russia, the status of tens of thousands of Jews who previously expressed desire to migrate to Israel, is now unknown.

Regarding sales to Iran, at least in the public view they have not yet materialized, and we've yet to see how Russia will reward Iran for the material support.
Regarding Syria, Russia took a step back but it still maintains the presence of a tripwire force.
Regarding tech vulnerability, the sale of other western air defenses to Ukraine may be a factor here, but I estimate it is not enough.
And regarding its ability to sell Iron Dome systems, Israel spends a disproportionate amount of money on defense. Over 5% of its GDP. Ukraine may not have the funds to buy a few batteries proper, and so the existing channels may be a long term debt to Israel, or the funds coming from the US's massive funding program.
So if it were to ever occur, I assume it will demand a top level meeting between Israel and the US that would involve not only some payment for these expensive systems, but also assurances of temporary protection. For Cyprus and Romania, Israel can produce these systems and deliver in a few years. Ukraine doesn't have years, so the preferred approach is drawing from Israel's own stocks, which obviously is a very hard pill to swallow for Israel, especially with the understanding that even doubling the number of Iron Dome batteries would not be enough to defend Israeli cities from Hezbollah, in a conflict that's always a small trigger away.

Zelensky ‘shocked’ by lack of Israeli defense support: ‘They gave us nothing’

Ukrainian leader complains of Jerusalem's refusal to provide air defense systems to his country, indicates its leaders have been disingenuous

www.timesofisrael.com

Israel apparently sells SpyDer systems to UAE.
This report caught me off guard as it was recently reported the UAE will buy South Korea's MR-SAM.
It is good to see the cultivation of ties, and UAE's willingness to be somewhat more reliant on Israel, emphasizing an alignment in the security outlook of UAE, especially regarding Iran, especially in light of recent reports of improved ties between Iran and the Arab countries, which I personally believe to be a feint.

Israel said ready to sell advanced air defense system to UAE

SPYDER mobile interceptors made by Rafael are capable of defending against various types of aircraft, drones and cruise missiles

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Iran protests continue, but for now without any escalation on either side.
Strangely, 2019's protests ended with 1,500 dead in about a week. This year's protests are less deadly, with 41 dead so far (and hundreds of arrested).
If there was a glimmer of hope for a revolution, it's slowly dying IMO as the tempo doesn't seem to change, which in turn means many will have vented their anger in some way and become demotivated from further protests.

Iran vows ‘no leniency’ as seething women-led protests enter 10th day

Judiciary chief calls for 'decisive action' to put down 'riots'; hundreds of demonstrators, activists and journalists arrested; at least 41 dead

www.timesofisrael.com

Poll conducted after PM Lapid's speech at the UN in which he showed support for a 2-state solution, shows the Israeli public disagrees with him and becomes more skeptical about prospects of such a solution.
The poll shows 36% of Israelis believe Israel should either "strongly" or "somewhat" pursue a 2-state solution.
Jewish votes - 31% for.
Arab votes - 60% for.
While that may still seem like a lot, it's a fairly sharp decline from only a year ago when 50% supported a 2-state solution.
Jewish votes - 44%.
Arab votes - 79%.
Possible reasons may be the recent military operation in Gaza and the firefights between the PA and other local terrorist groups, the latter showing the PA is not as stable as many might have thought.

Only 36% of Israelis believe next gov’t should push two-state solution

32% of Jewish Israelis surveyed support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflcit while 57.5% oppose one, according to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute.

www.jpost.com

Blinken says to Lebanon US may not be able to "stop Israel" from retaliating if Hezbollah attacks over extraction of gas from the Karish installation.
There has been speculation in various OSINT accounts that Israel may be lowering the threshold of enemy action for a possible action of its own. Some estimate Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah.
The primary reasons appears to be urgency. With Iran's nuclear program still unresolved diplomatically and its reportedly sufficient quantities of highly enriched uranium (at 60%, not the required 90%), Israel wants to be able to dedicate maximum resources to that effort and simultaneously prevent Iran from using Hezbollah for its retaliation. So while Israel cannot attack without justification, it can reduce the threshold and reset Hezbollah's military capability for many years for even smaller infractions, such as last month's launch of multiple drones toward the Karish gas rig, which were promptly shot down by an Israeli ship nearby, and for which Israel has not retaliated overtly.

Blinken: US will not be able to stop Israel if Hezbollah attacks over gas

Israel plans to begin drawing gas from the Karish field in the coming weeks amid growing Hezbollah threats.

www.jpost.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Firefights in Jenin are escalating.
Today an IDF force, part of a pursuit of a terrorist who murdered 3 in Tel Aviv in April this year, engaged in a firefight in Jenin in which 5 terrorists were killed and several more were injured.
Footage emerged of a large number of gunmen fleeing into a building, said to be a kindergarten.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575158430985342979

Iran launched 73 ballistic missiles (and reportedly other munitions in addition to that) into Iraqi Kurdistan. Reason yet unknown to me.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575151650947342336

 

[ngatimozart]

Iran launched 73 ballistic missiles (and reportedly other munitions in addition to that) into Iraqi Kurdistan. Reason yet unknown to me.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575151650947342336

Aren't the Iranians a bit like the Turks - have a permanent hate for the Kurds? Of course the Kurds would not necessarily adhere to the Ayatollahs version of religion and people who don't agree 150% with the Ayatollahs tend to find life a tad uncomfortable and shortened. Do you think that Iranian Kurds within Iran have annoyed the IRGC so they've lobbed some explosive bricks into Iraqi Kurdistan?

 

[STURM]

Almost everyone [Syrians, Iraqis, Iranians and Turks] has longstanding problems with the Kurds and vice versa. The irony is that one of the greatest heroes for the Arabs was a Kurd known in the West as Saladin. He was born in a certain town called Tikrit which also was later the hometown of a certain individual called Saddam.

Throughout history the Kurds have been used and exploited by almost everybody.
The one saving grace for their enemies is that even within set national borders the Kurds are a disparate group; not united and often in competition with one another. Lest it not be forgotten the Kurds were willing participants in the Armenian genocide.

On Iran it has had a security pproblem in its part of Kurdistan from the days of the Shah. During that period the Shah also collaborated with the Israelis on certain activities in Iraqi Kurdistan.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Aren't the Iranians a bit like the Turks - have a permanent hate for the Kurds? Of course the Kurds would not necessarily adhere to the Ayatollahs version of religion and people who don't agree 150% with the Ayatollahs tend to find life a tad uncomfortable and shortened. Do you think that Iranian Kurds within Iran have annoyed the IRGC so they've lobbed some explosive bricks into Iraqi Kurdistan?

I don't know their history well, but Iranian channels are alleging the Iraqi Kurds are smuggling weapons to Iranian Kurds, whose sentiment toward the Iranian government is hostile.
Economical and military cooperation with Israel certainly might keep the IRGC particularly on edge.

Some analysts claim that although the peak of current protests is behind us, these protests are the most consequential so far, and that if they were to really drive toward a revolution, Iranians would have to reach a point of hundreds of casualties and thousands of arrests per day, and then the test would be the change in reaction of Iran's security forces, particularly the difference between the different services.
What might cause Iran's security services to be more reluctant, and thus bring us closer to a revolution, is an armed resistance, and that's where the Kurds might be a key factor.
I can only assume Iran spotted this as the main vulnerability at the moment and tries to curb that, although not quite successfully.

The average Iranian is not without sympathy for the Kurds. Mahsa Amini, whose murder during interrogation over a missing scarf case triggered these massive protests, was Kurdish.

Regardless, this consistent lack of stability in Iran perhaps requires a similar approach to Syria in 2007. The use of WMD by Iran and its proxies is not a taboo. And while nuclear weapons are a huge step up from chemical weapons, it is clear the usage threshold is much lower than what western nations might find acceptable.

If the Europeans were surprised by Russian aggression, the world might be even more surprised by Iranian aggression, even though Iran's strategy is far more permissive of violence as foreign policy. So if Russia can wave its nukes on an hourly basis on national TV, I'm afraid of what might happen if we let Iran have nukes when it's pushed to a corner that it might lead itself into.

EDIT:
Some on Twitter are already drawing parallels between this and the Hitler Youth in the final days of Nazi Germany. I'm sickened, but not impressed. I would not rush to conclusions of some IRGC desperation just yet.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575210576166682624

 

[ngatimozart]

I read an interesting article in Foreign Affairs yesterday by Sanam Vakil, who is Deputy Director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program. He suggests that these protests are symptomatic of the discontent that the younger segments of the population have with the theocracy and government. The fact that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei aged 83 and who is rumoured not to be the most healthy individual in Iran, may fall off his perch any time (die) adds to some uncertainty as well and the ones calling for change see it as an opportunity to demand greater change and more freedoms. He then goes on to discuss the selection process of the new Supreme Leader. The problem here is Iran's "Deep State" which he explains as follows:

"Although the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the military entity empowered to protect Iran’s national security, is often considered to be synonymous with Iran’s deep state, there is more to it than that. An intricate security, intelligence, and economic superstructure brings together individuals and institutions whose goal is to preserve the fundamental revolutionary nature, vision, and security of the Islamic Republic. The deep state includes the judiciary, some members of the religious bureaucracy, charitable parastatal foundations, various semi-private entities that are critical for financing, and most important, the powerful office of the supreme leader, an entity that wields detailed oversight over all of Iran’s political systems and processes."​

Here he shows the vested interest, but more so the malignant cancerous growth, that corrupts the Iranian government, religious life and society. And it really has one man to blame for that, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He allowed the IRGC to gain so much power and prominence across Iranian government, political, military, security, and foreign policy fields. He's a real hardliner and when he falls off his perch you can be sure that the deep state will ensure that their interests are secure. The IRGC will definitely be looking at anyone who even hints of a thought of curtailing their power and influence.

"The sheer force, velocity, and audacity of the latest protest movement and the speed with which concern over Khamenei’s health has given way to unprecedented public calls for his ouster have shocked many observers, as has the rage many protesters have directed at the broader theocratic system itself. Until recently, the clerical elite may have hoped that the succession process would unfold entirely behind closed doors, as it has in the past. But public anger has now squarely focused on Khamenei’s legitimacy and the legitimacy of the system he represents. Across Iran, thousands of angry protesters continue to chant “death to Khomeini,” “clerics get out,” and “Mojtaba, [Khamenei - son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] may you die and not become Supreme Leader.” As the deep state yet again unleashes the full force of its coercive power to shut down the protests, ordinary Iranians from all walks of life are watching closely. Should Khamenei die while Iran is convulsed by a protest movement on this scale, the challenge to the clerical system could become existential."​

From this, which is the final paragraph of the article it is suggested that Khamenei may have been looking at a dynasty but earlier in the article it is stated that the son doesn't have the necessary religious qualifications, he's not an Ayatollah and hasn't got the required qualification to be one, and the deep state may have reservations as well. The crowds have been vocal about their opinion on that. However the anger towards the clerics and current system is not something that they can keep suppressing because it will fester and eventually explode. His last sentence: "Should Khamenei die while Iran is convulsed by a protest movement on this scale, the challenge to the clerical system could become existential." I have my doubts about it being existential. Possible yes, but are the crowds large enough to withstand the IRGC and the military? That's the next question who would the military side with? If the military sided with the crowds then all bets are off.

Iran’s Crisis of Legitimacy An Embattled Regime Faces Mass Protests—and an Ailing Supreme Leader

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Report: US will release billions of dollars for Iranian regime in prisoner release deal.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576433184476401664

Iran's internal crisis may have presented a unique opportunity to go through with a deal, but at a huge cost, potentially providing Iran with a relief necessary to arrest and murder thousands more protesters.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel and Lebanon sign strategic cooperative gas extraction agreement. Details are still classified but we know Lebanon will be able to (theoretically) extract a certain amount of gas which was previously under Israeli control, and will pay royalties to Israel for it. If Lebanon can recover and fund an extraction capability, it could get its own gas that would be cheaper than buying Israeli or Iranian gas.
Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said the deal was a "very important step", which means war is averted for now.

But whether we get war or not is hardly a factor. These are, IMO, the key benefits to Israel for having this deal:

• Lebanon can wean off Iranian energy.
• While Hezbollah won't lose Iran's sponsorship, it will pave the way for stronger parties that are inherently opposed to Hezbollah.
• This deal de facto recognizes Israel as a legitimate state and partner.
• Opens a mental acceptance of an energy/resources for peace strategy instead of the less than practical land-for-peace strategy of the 80's-2000's.
• Shows Israel does not fret about losing resources, and keeps human capital as its economical backbone.

Sources:

PM: Proposal for Lebanon maritime border deal preserves Israel’s security interests

Lapid confirms Jerusalem has received text of agreement; says allowing Lebanon to develop gas field will field will 'weaken dependence on Iran, restrain Hezbollah'

www.timesofisrael.com

Gas deal: Security guarantees for Israel, economic benefits for Lebanon

The maritime border agreement with Lebanon will maintain the Israeli security line in territorial waters; the US and France will be the guarantors.

www.jpost.com

In subdued comments, Nasrallah calls maritime border deal proposal ‘important step’

After months of threats, Hezbollah terror chief now says Lebanon will benefit from agreement with Israel; Jerusalem set to approve accord in the coming week

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[ngatimozart]

ISW Iran Crisis Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Iran Crisis Update
October 2, 5:00 pm ET

Full article: Institute for the Study of War

Main Points.

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement.
• Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent in Tehran.
• Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.
• Iran’s Iraqi proxies are attempting to decouple anti-corruption Tishreen movement protests from Iraqi nationalists’ anti-Iran sentiments.
• Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime spread to Lebanon.
• The IRGC attacked anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the seventh consecutive day.

Supreme Leader Succession

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 2. Persian-language social media account tweeted on October 1 that Khamenei will visit Law Enforcement (LEC) facilities in the coming days. The LEC is Iran’s premier internal security service and police force. The regime has used the LEC extensively throughout Iran to crack down on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent—specifically in Tehran—on October 2. CTP assesses with moderate-to-high confidence that demonstrations occurred in at least 13 Iranian cities in 10 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations, the majority of which occurred on or in the vicinity of university campuses.

• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Najaf Abad, Esfahan Province
• Kashan, Esfahan Province
• Shahr-e Kord, Esfahan Province
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Kerman City, Kerman Province
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (violence reported)
• Yazd, Yazd Province
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (violence reported)

The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Khamenei has not addressed the protests nor made a public appearance since September 21, possibly due to his reportedly worsening health.[1] An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters that intra-regime disagreements over supreme leader succession and protest management are dividing the regime elite.[2] This division suggests that Khamenei is not playing his usual role of cohering the regime during a crisis.

Khamenei’s silence may have opened a leadership vacuum that other regime authorities are having to fill. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders struck a more conciliatory tone on October 2 as university students have adopted an increasingly prominent role in the protest movement. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said, “we consider [the protesting youth] our friends, and we will not allow the enemy to attack you.”[3] Salami was referring to his allegation that Iran’s international adversaries are coopting and stoking the protests to destabilize the regime. Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri met with students and celebrated their role in advancing the regime and revolution.[4] Khamenei would ordinarily play a prominent role in such messaging during a crisis, and his silence is abnormal.

President Ebrahim Raisi has played a minor role thus far in communicating to the protesters or the Iranian population. His low profile is remarkable given his legal responsibilities for maintaining public order in Iran. He may seek to avoid becoming the face of the crackdown to preserve his chances to be accepted as the next supreme leader, but it is hard to see his relative silence as anything other than weakness.

Anti-regime outlet IranWire has published reports claiming that security leaders have disagreed over how to respond to the protests, further indicating that they may lack guidance from the supreme leader. IranWire reported on September 24 that IRGC leaders accused other security bodies suppressing protests of negligence, citing an unidentified former Iranian official.[5] IranWire also reported on September 29 that senior IRGC officers have disagreed with the brutal treatment of protesters and instead advocated for fighting anti-regime Kurdish groups in northwestern Iran.[6] CTP cannot verify these reports.

Khamenei’s absence may be emboldening segments of the clerical establishment, especially in Qom, to criticize and pressure the regime more openly. Two senior clerics—Ayatollah Mustafa Mohaghegh Damad and Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani—issued statements on September 17, criticizing state security services for the death of Mahsa Amini.[7] Ayatollah Hossein Nouri Hamedani called on the regime to listen to the people’s grievances on September 25.[8] Persian-language media outlet Zeitoon published a statement allegedly from students and teachers at the Tehran, Mashhad, and Qom seminaries on September 30, condemning Khamenei and the regime crackdown on the protests.[9]

 

[ngatimozart]

Apologies, this is out of order.

ISW Iran Crisis Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Iran Crisis Update
October 1, 2:30 pm ET

Full article: Institute for the Study of War

Main Points.

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement.
• Ongoing, anti-regime protests expanded to involve at least 20 Iranian cities in 17 provinces.
• Demonstrations in Iraq planned for other purposes adopted an anti-Iran tone and expressed solidarity with Iranian protests.
• Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah criticized Iraqi protesters for chanting against the Iranian regime but did not make the anti-Iran protests a focal point of his address.

Supreme Leader Succession

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 1. A Persian-language social media account tweeted on October 1 that Khamenei will visit Law Enforcement Command (LEC) facilities in the coming days.[vi] The LEC is Iran’s premier internal security service and police force. The regime has used the LEC extensively throughout Iran to crack down on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests significantly increased in number and scale on October 1. CTP can assess with moderate-to-high confidence that preorganized, anti-regime protests occurred in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations:

• Karaj, Alborz Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province
• Bushehr City, Bushehr Province
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (large protest, violence reported)
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Rasht, Gilan Province
• Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province
• Kerman City, Kerman Province
• Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (large protest)
• Yasouj, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province
• Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province
• Marivan, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
• Babol, Mazandaran Province
• Birjand, South Khorasan Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (large protest, violence reported)
• Qods City, Tehran Province
• Yazd City, Yazd Province
• Zanjan City, Zanjan Province

Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite regime censorship. Protestors had announced plans over the past few days for protests on October 1 as CTP has previously reported. The successful coordination of these demonstrations despite internet restrictions suggests that protesters—specifically university students—have found ways to organize.

These protests pose a serious and increasing threat to the regime as their grievances resonate across a growing range of Iranians. These protests now include many marginalized minorities, merchants, students, and the urban elite.

Protesters have found secular martyrs around whom to rally. Mahsa Amini is the most prominent symbol of this movement, especially among social media users.[ii] Protesters have chanted slogans from a viral Iranian protest song titled “Baraaye,” which lists popular grievances against the regime.[iii] State security services arrested the author of this song, Shervin Hajipour, on September 29.[iv] These individuals provide resonant symbols for the protesters similar to how protesters rallied against the regime killing of Neda Agha Soltan during the 2009 Green Movement when Iranians took to the streets to protest the fraud-plagued reelection of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.[v]

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Emily Schrader, a writer for JPost, conducted an interview with Reza Pahlavi, in which he expressed desire for cooperation with Israel and a peaceful Iran, decried the current regime's destruction of the middle east.

'Iran will seek economic, cultural ties with Israel' - Iranian prince - opinion

I interviewed Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Iranian shah, to understand more about what Iran may look like should there be a successful revolution.

www.jpost.com

Emily also conducted a Twitter survey in Farsi, asking Iranians what they feel about Israel conducting military strikes in Iran against IRGC targets, and a vast majority answered "yes". The caveat - we don't know how many are non-Iranians or expats, or how close the views of expats are to protesting Iranians.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576881914577039360

 

[ngatimozart]

ISW Iran Crisis Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Iran Crisis Update
October 3, 3:00 pm ET

Full article: Institute for the Study of War

The pdf can be downloaded here.

Main Points.

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21 to condemn the ongoing, anti-regime protests.
• Protests increased in number to at least 18 Iranian cities in 16 provinces.
• University students and faculty staged widespread protests in response to the regime’s brutal crackdown on Sharif University students.
• Iranian proxies pivoted their media messaging to match Khamenei’s speech.

Anti-regime protests increased in number on October 3. CTP assesses with moderate-to-high confidence that demonstrations occurred in at least 18 Iranian cities in 16 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations, all of which occurred on or in the vicinity of university campuses:

• Karaj, Alborz Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (violence reported)
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
• Jahrom, Fars Province
• Shiraz, Fars Province
• Gorgan, Golestan Province
• Kerman City, Kerman Province
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
• Khorramabad, Lorestan Province
• Damghan, Semnan Province
• Semnan City, Semnan Province
• Birjand, South Khorasan Province
• Shahriar, Tehran Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (violence reported)
• Urmia, West Azerbaijan Province
• Zanjan City, Zanjan Province

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.[1] He spoke to a military officer graduation ceremony alongside the regime’s most senior military leaders. Khamenei appeared in stable condition during his speech.

Khamenei condemned the ongoing, anti-regime protests during his speech—his first public acknowledgment of the protests. Khamenei accused the US and Israel of stoking the protests and said that the greatest victims were the state security services “and the Iranian nation.” Khamenei honored the security personnel killed in the protests.

Khamenei may have decided to meet the military leadership for his first address on the protests to signal his support for the security establishment and for a hard line on the demonstrations. Khamenei has not typically made public spectacles of meetings with senior military officers in previous major protest waves, although he has held such meetings during non-crisis periods. The following individuals joined Khamenei:

• Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri
• IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami
• Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi
• LEC Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari
• Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani
• Interior Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi

Khamenei stated that some of the regime’s strongest female supporters do not wear the full hijab in public, indicating that the regime may relax its hijab enforcement to placate protesters. Khamenei’s remark does not likely signify a reversal of the mandatory hijab law but rather a message to the security establishment to enforce it less aggressively. Khamenei also expressed regret over the death of Mahsa Amini.

Supreme Leader Succession

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21.[2] Khamenei spoke to a military officer graduation ceremony alongside senior military and security forces leaders. Khamenei appeared to be in no worse health than on his last such public engagement, suggesting that he may have recovered if Western reporting that his health had deteriorated was accurate.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I just realized I misinformed readers here. The delineation deal between Israel and Lebanon is not signed yet. Will go for approval in the Knesset and if it passes, it may be signed. It requires a 2/3 majority IIRC.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel-Lebanon delineation talks hit an obstacle, threats resumed.
Recently Israel expressed approval of the current draft of the deal (US is mediating), but stressed it will not accept any significant alterations by Lebanon. Today, Lebanon has sent a reply with increased demands, which Israel rejected.
There are many assumptions being thrown around as for why Lebanon would suddenly increase its demands beyond the draft's parameters (which are still classified), but what we do know is that minister of defense Benny Gantz instructed the IDF to be on high alert along the northern border, assuming chances for a Hezbollah attack on the Karish rig are high.

Israel readies for war with Hezbollah after Lebanon ups maritime deal demands

Yair Lapid rejects Lebanese proposal to reverse Israeli security, economic gains from US-mediated agreement

www.jpost.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

UAE reportedly deploys Barak-MX based system near Abu Dhabi. The existence of secret dealings between Israel and UAE is known to all, and every other detail that could be added here is classified, except for the Israeli-American desire to set up a regional air defense network, which is currently lagging due to geopolitical factors such as Saudi Arabia's alleged agreements with Russia and lack of desire for normalization with Israel yet.

Citing satellite image, analysts say UAE deploys Israeli-made air defense system

Joint Israeli-Indian Barak-8 launchers and Elta radar seen south of Abu Dhabi, following wave of missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthis

www.timesofisrael.com

"You're cool. Don't come to the streets tomorrow."
IRGC chief tells protesters to essentially just stop protesting or else they'll be killed.
I'm not really surprised this happened, but I am surprised it didn't happen sooner. I was fairly sure this would end like the last round, as quickly as it started and with a reported death toll exceeding a thousand in about a week. The Iranian protest movement still generally insists on a non-violent protest, but I do not know just how sustainable that is in the long run.
There were reports of regular army and air force wanting to help cause a revolution, but no follow-up reports that I'm aware of except for entire units being temporarily deactivated and planes grounded in fear of such a scenario.

As Iran protests swell, IRGC chief warns demonstrators: ‘Don’t come to the streets’

‘Today is the last day of the riots,’ Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami declares, as demonstrations spread to universities across Islamic Republic

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[ngatimozart]

"You're cool. Don't come to the streets tomorrow."
IRGC chief tells protesters to essentially just stop protesting or else they'll be killed.
I'm not really surprised this happened, but I am surprised it didn't happen sooner. I was fairly sure this would end like the last round, as quickly as it started and with a reported death toll exceeding a thousand in about a week. The Iranian protest movement still generally insists on a non-violent protest, but I do not know just how sustainable that is in the long run.
There were reports of regular army and air force wanting to help cause a revolution, but no follow-up reports that I'm aware of except for entire units being temporarily deactivated and planes grounded in fear of such a scenario.

As Iran protests swell, IRGC chief warns demonstrators: ‘Don’t come to the streets’

‘Today is the last day of the riots,’ Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami declares, as demonstrations spread to universities across Islamic Republic

www.timesofisrael.com

This maybe the start of a new revolution in Iran.

Iranian women have been rebelling against restrictions since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 – with renewed hope that protests this time will end differently

The protests have gone further this time and across more sectors of the country. This is a revolt of the poor according to one author:

A Second Iranian Revolution?

The strange echoes of the 1970s over the past 18 months—with runaway inflation, an energy crisis, and an expansionist Russia—were startling enough. And then a revolt began in Iran, just

www.commentary.org

The current situation is beginning to look like the situation before the Shah was overthrown, with all the public and political discontent against him.

"In solidarity with the protesters, Iranian women inside and outside the country are cutting their hair. Actresses are removing their veils, knowing full well they could face permanent bans for such gestures. Opposition to the government does not come from only the more secular segments of society; even religious women who dress in the state’s preferred black chador have come to criticize the compulsory law. Fatemeh Sepehri, an Iranian women’s rights activist based in the holy city of Mashhad, appeared on a satellite television channel to harshly criticize the regime for killing protesters. She decried Khamenei’s silence in the face of the death of Iranian women at the hands of the police. It was a silence made all the more deafening by the supreme leader’s outspoken reaction to the police killing of George Floyd in the United States in 2020, when, according to Sepehri, Khamenei’s “tongue was bigger than his turban.” Sepehri was soon arrested and remains in detention.​

​

Another prominent Iranian woman, Faezeh Hashemi—whose late father, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, was an architect of the Islamic Republic—has sided with the protesters and condemned the use of violence against women. In a recent interview, she said the Islamic Republic’s repression has been a thousand times worse than that under the dictatorial Mohammad Reza (Shah) Pahlavi in the 1960s and 1970s. She was arrested as well. Others, such as Parvaneh Salahshouri, a reformist former member of parliament, insist that humiliating women by denying them agency over their bodies has only encouraged violence against them at all levels of society. ...​

​

Protesters continue to challenge the Islamic Republic through civil disobedience. Overarching political circumstances make the situation even more dangerous for the state. Iranians have seen the rise of an “elected” government that marches in lockstep with the parallel religious state. They have little faith in the ability of elections to produce meaningful change. Coupled with state repression, that loss of hope could lead some young protesters to pursue violent methods of resistance. Iranian political activists have warned that the current environment is reminiscent of the late 1960s, when many dissidents became convinced of the necessity of armed struggle against the shah. After the U.S.-backed monarch closed all political channels, radical circles mushroomed in secret in Iran, following the footsteps of the armed Marxist revolutionary rebels in countries such as Algeria, China, and Cuba. The ensuing violence, although eventually repressed by the heavy hand of the shah, paved the way for the 1979 Iranian revolution." ​

The Folly of Iran’s Hard-Liners

A repressive regime has left citizens with no option but revolt.

www.foreignaffairs.com

​

"The protests have continued to intensify, and calls to abolish the religious police have given way to full-throated attacks on the clerical establishment and on the supreme leader himself. The current protests are now believed to be the most serious challenge Iran’s government has confronted since the Green Movement protests in 2009. A series of challenges facing the Iranian regime—widening frustration over social restrictions; outrage over economic collapse and mismanagement; and seething anger at Khamenei and a clerical establishment that has shown little regard for the needs of the people—have now converged into a crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic. ...​

​

Although the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the military entity empowered to protect Iran’s national security, is often considered to be synonymous with Iran’s deep state, there is more to it than that. An intricate security, intelligence, and economic superstructure brings together individuals and institutions whose goal is to preserve the fundamental revolutionary nature, vision, and security of the Islamic Republic. The deep state includes the judiciary, some members of the religious bureaucracy, charitable parastatal foundations, various semiprivate entities that are critical for financing, and most important, the powerful office of the supreme leader, an entity that wields detailed oversight over all of Iran’s political systems and processes. ...​

​

The sheer force, velocity, and audacity of the latest protest movement and the speed with which concern over Khamenei’s health has given way to unprecedented public calls for his ouster have shocked many observers, as has the rage many protesters have directed at the broader theocratic system itself. Until recently, the clerical elite may have hoped that the succession process would unfold entirely behind closed doors, as it has in the past. But public anger has now squarely focused on Khamenei’s legitimacy and the legitimacy of the system he represents. Across Iran, thousands of angry protesters continue to chant “death to Khomeini,” “clerics get out,” and “Mojtaba, may you die and not become Supreme Leader.” As the deep state yet again unleashes the full force of its coercive power to shut down the protests, ordinary Iranians from all walks of life are watching closely. Should Khamenei die while Iran is convulsed by a protest movement on this scale, the challenge to the clerical system could become existential."​

Iran’s Crisis of Legitimacy

An embattled regime faces mass protests—and an ailing supreme leader.

www.foreignaffairs.com

We can see from the above that this situation is indeed different to previous protests because it is more widespread and there are factors at play now that weren't in previous protests. With Khamenei well into his dotage and his health declining, it may not be long before he falls off his perch and meets his maker. This will exacerbate the already highly tense political situation with in Iran and could be enough for the whole country to erupt into a full blown civil and sectarian war. The current leadership have no qualms in sending the IRGC onto the streets with guns, clubs, whips and chains in an attempt to cower the population and end the protests, but this time it may not work because people may think that they have nothing to lose by taking the IRCG on in the streets, rather than wait to be picked up / picked off later. Die fighting, facing your enemy, rather than in their torture chambers.

 

[STURM]

This maybe the start of a new revolution in Iran.

It does indeed. There are various works on the events leading to the revolution and a work of fiction that does a great job describing and creating the feel of the events as they played out is James Clavell's ''Whirlwind''. It's quiet worrying because what comes after might be worse; much worse [understandably the protesters concerns are on the present] and it will have an impact way beyond the region; just like the 1979 Revolution.

This is one of my favourite books on Iran. The U.S. and British organised coup which did away with an elected Iranian leader and which lead to events in 1979 taking place.

Regime Change, Circa 1953 (Published 2003)

Warren Bass reviews book All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror by Stephen Kinzer (M)

www.nytimes.com

We can see from the above that this situation is indeed different to previous protests because it is more widespread and there are factors at play now that weren't in previous protests.

It is different yes and completely unexpected but whether all the protesters are united in actually wanting a new government and on other things
remains to be seen. The one thing the protesters should do is be wary and selective of any forms of support and encouragement from external sources as external sources will tend not to have the interests of Iranian's first but their own selfish interests.

This will exacerbate the already highly tense political situation with in Iran a

We also have to note that Iran for quite a while now has been facing a militant/rebel/terrorist issue [various attacks have been launched over the years] which might not change even if there's a change in government.

Armed Opposition Groups in Iran - JISS

Armed opposition groups emerging from the Kurdish, Baloch and Ahvazi Arab minorities have stepped-up attacks on regime assets in Iran. Tehran is responding by acting against these opponents, in Pakistan and Iraq and further afield. But these insurgencies are not capable by themselves of calling...

jiss.org.il

Iran says bomb attack foiled in Shiraz on day of shooting

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Friday that its intelligence unit had foiled a bomb attack in the southern city of Shiraz, scene of a deadly shooting at a shrine on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com