Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

[hauritz]

It occurs to me that with the west now quite openly donating military equipment to the Ukraine it may well change the attitude of the west towards selling military equipment to Taiwan. There is a limit to what the west is willing to provide Taiwan for fears of offending China. However when you look at the other side of the scale you have to also consider the consequences of Taiwan not having the resources to defend itself from China.

After seeing what is happening in the Ukraine my attitude is now basically screw China and sell Taiwan whatever equipment it needs to guarantee its security.

It might be a risky policy in the short term but in the longer term fortress Taiwan could provide an effective bulwark against the Chinese.

I would rather arm Taiwan and prevent a war than have to come to Taiwan's aid after a war has started.

 

[John Fedup]

It occurs to me that with the west now quite openly donating military equipment to the Ukraine it may well change the attitude of the west towards selling military equipment to Taiwan. There is a limit to what the west is willing to provide Taiwan for fears of offending China. However when you look at the other side of the scale you have to also consider the consequences of Taiwan not having the resources to defend itself from China.

After seeing what is happening in the Ukraine my attitude is now basically screw China and sell Taiwan whatever equipment it needs to guarantee its security.

It might be a risky policy in the short term but in the longer term fortress Taiwan could provide an effective bulwark against the Chinese.

I would rather arm Taiwan and prevent a war than have to come to Taiwan's aid after a war has started.

Agree, time to start providing significant help. I also like the concept of rigging explosive charges at all chip manufacturers facilities (if Taiwan agrees). That is a loss that might detour the Chinese. A production loss will affect them even more than the West.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It occurs to me that with the west now quite openly donating military equipment to the Ukraine it may well change the attitude of the west towards selling military equipment to Taiwan. There is a limit to what the west is willing to provide Taiwan for fears of offending China. However when you look at the other side of the scale you have to also consider the consequences of Taiwan not having the resources to defend itself from China.

After seeing what is happening in the Ukraine my attitude is now basically screw China and sell Taiwan whatever equipment it needs to guarantee its security.

It might be a risky policy in the short term but in the longer term fortress Taiwan could provide an effective bulwark against the Chinese.

I would rather arm Taiwan and prevent a war than have to come to Taiwan's aid after a war has started.

The problem only is that china's economical power and influence is much larger than from Russia. It will cost Western countries just too much money and the Western countries are too dependent from china.

 

[John Fedup]

The problem only is that china's economical power and influence is much larger than from Russia. It will cost Western countries just too much money and the Western countries are too dependent from china.

The dependence is a two way street. The combined economic power of the US, Japan, S Korea, and Europe exceeds that of China. Who can China count on besides Pakistan, Iran, their debt trap nations, and a Russian economy on the verge of collapse. India and Brazil along with Indonesia are likely more comfortable on the sidelines or in the Western camp.

 

[Vivendi]

The problem only is that china's economical power and influence is much larger than from Russia. It will cost Western countries just too much money and the Western countries are too dependent from china.

Properly arming Taiwan should hopefully deter China from invading. If successful this would be the cheapest alternative, for both China and the West. As a positive side effect it would save tens of thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) of lives.

 

[hauritz]

Peter Dutton would seem to agree that we need to look at arming Taiwan.

Peter Dutton flags Australia sending weapons to Taiwan, acquiring nuclear submarines before 2040

The Defence Minister says Australia may send weapons to Taiwan in response to any future Chinese military aggression, while revealing Canberra may acquire nuclear submarines earlier than 2040.

www.abc.net.au

Recent events once again confirm that you cannot appease bullies, didn't work in WW2, didn't work with the Ukraine, I guarantee it won't work with China.

 

[tonyget]

The problem only is that china's economical power and influence is much larger than from Russia. It will cost Western countries just too much money and the Western countries are too dependent from china.

I don't think economics matters that much in the event of war. The West cut off trade with Nazi Germany and Japan during WWII，but that didn't help，the outcome of the war was still determined by military force. Why the US and UK didn't just use sanction to take back Kuwait and Falklands from Iraq and Argentina？Because economics means nothing to country that is determined to wage war，that's why the US predominantly rely on military force to solve geopolitical issues.

 

[tonyget]

The dependence is a two way street. The combined economic power of the US, Japan, S Korea, and Europe exceeds that of China. Who can China count on besides Pakistan, Iran, their debt trap nations, and a Russian economy on the verge of collapse. India and Brazil along with Indonesia are likely more comfortable on the sidelines or in the Western camp.

The West is still purchasing Russian oil and gas as we speak. With surging oil price, Russia stands to benefit.

As for China trade，you cannot prevent countries from trading with China if they have the need and desire to do so. There was a failed example in history，Napoleon's continental blockade against the British. It failed because even though many countries ally with France politically，they still want to trade with UK. That being said "Politics is Politics, business is business".

 

[John Fedup]

Building nuclear power plants, expanding wind and solar production where feasible and electric vehicles can go a long way to decreasing Russia’s revenue from oil and gas. A large drop in demand will see China, Russia’s most important customer negotiating lower prices from ME and Russia thus minimizing margins.

 

[swerve]

I don't think economics matters that much in the event of war. The West cut off trade with Nazi Germany and Japan during WWII，but that didn't help，the outcome of the war was still determined by military force. ..

It did help. It greatly reduced the military force of Germany & Japan.

For example, shortages of imported metals meant that German jet engines had very short lives, German armour-piercing ammunition dropped in quality through the war, & German production of high-quality armour was limited. Shortages of oil greatly affected military operations for both Germany & Japan, & caused the diversion of a lot of German industrial production into synthetic oil plants.

And there were many other things which were affected by the blockade.

P.S. The existence & effectiveness of the blockade was taken into account by Spain when it refused to join the war (apart from a 'volunteer' corps fighting the USSR until 1944). Franco didn't want to be on the wrong side of the blockade. It was bad enough having imports controlled by the RN, & strategic materials rationed to stop them being passed on to Germany.

 

[Vivendi]

It did help. It greatly reduced the military force of Germany & Japan.

For example, shortages of imported metals meant that German jet engines had very short lives, German armour-piercing ammunition dropped in quality through the war, & German production of high-quality armour was limited. Shortages of oil greatly affected military operations for both Germany & Japan, & caused the diversion of a lot of German industrial production into synthetic oil plants.

And there were many other things which were affected by the blockade.

Agreed -- in addition to this we also have to consider what options the West got.

NATO should not (and will not) engage militarily with Russia, even if Ukraine and some other players would like to see this happening. One big difference between now and WW2 is that now both Russia and the West have a substantial amount of nuclear weapons, and Putin and others (e.g. Lavrov) have several times made it clear that "WW3 will be nuclear". NATO must make a huge effort in staying out of this fight, if at all possible.

So without starting a war with Russia, what can NATO do? I think they are doing what is currently possible: supply Ukraine with weapons, food and medical supplies, and impose more and more strict sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

There is now talk about banning Russial oil, it would be another significant escalation, and quite costly. On the other hand, if it can shorten the war it will be worth it. U.S., European allies discuss banning imports of Russian oil | Reuters

In other news, 3 of the 4 big global accounting firms are now leaving Russia and Belarus.
Consultancy company Accenture is also leaving Russia, whereas others are suspending client works. KPMG, PwC and EY to cut off businesses in Russia and Belarus | Accountancy | The Guardian

Several other companies are leaving Russia or reducing their exporures: in addition to Apple and Samsung, HP and Intel are also pulling out. Microsoft is stopping selling products in Russia. Netflix and Tiktok are suspending services and/or stop taking new clients in Russia. Of the car companies all the big ones are stopping shipment and idling factories in Russia.
Revealed: The growing list of businesses cutting ties with Russia (irishtimes.com)

 

[tonyget]

It depends on your goal. If the goal is to preserve Ukraine sovereignty，then there is no substitute to military action. If Ukraine falls under Russian control completely，there is no way Russia will give it up under any circumstances，no matter whatever sanction you impose on Russia.

It did help. It greatly reduced the military force of Germany & Japan.

For example, shortages of imported metals meant that German jet engines had very short lives, German armour-piercing ammunition dropped in quality through the war, & German production of high-quality armour was limited. Shortages of oil greatly affected military operations for both Germany & Japan, & caused the diversion of a lot of German industrial production into synthetic oil plants.

And there were many other things which were affected by the blockade.

 

[Blackshoe]

Chinese economic power also buys them a lot of power in Western political circles, as well; more than the Soviets could have ever dreamed of, to be honest. Do not underestimate that in terms of how it impacts Taiwain issues.

 

[John Fedup]

Chinese economic power also buys them a lot of power in Western political circles, as well; more than the Soviets could have ever dreamed of, to be honest. Do not underestimate that in terms of how it impacts Taiwain issues.

That was certainly true prior to Russia’s Ukraine invasion. I think an increasing number of the influencers in Western political circles will now be wary of Chinese money now, a good chance promoting the demise of Taiwan will come back to bite them in the a$$.

 

[weaponwh]

consider US already selling weapons to taiwan for decades, i'm not sure why would UK/France/german bother to sell them weapons. China is one of the largest trading partner for Skorea/Japan/german/france etc , unless china start invading taiwan, no one gonna jeopardize their trade. especially given US already selling weapons to taiwan

taiwan can't afford every hi-tech weapon F35 etc, it has limited military budget. if DPP buy more hardware, other party like KMT gonna scream about DPP route those $$$ from domestic project to purchase military hardware.
also ppl forget, 45% of taiwan export is to china, and thats when things are bad between them right now. This trend is growing, so the political party on both side need to think about this as well.

 

[swerve]

... taiwan can't afford every hi-tech weapon F35 etc, it has limited military budget. ...

Taiwan is rich & its military spending is relatively modest. It could easily afford to increase its military budget.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Taiwan is rich & its military spending is relatively modest. It could easily afford to increase its military budget.

It really depends what you're expecting Taiwan to buy. How many F-35s would Taiwan need to make a real difference, for example?

Taiwan has a shrinking and ageing population and a rock-bottom fertility rate. House prices, like in much of the developed world, are skyrocketing in the big cities. Young people have problems getting decent salaries.

The budget could probably be increased as a percentage of GDP to 3%, but those other problems reduce the headroom for really big increases.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida just condemned Russia for its occupation of the southern part of the Kuril Islands.
In this statement in Parliament, he said that the islands are “original territories of Japan”."|

I don't know if this is true or not, ive not found it yet on Japanese news channels.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500827047362449408

PS.
Nothing on NHK, Kyodo or any other newschannel about it. So probably this is false news.

 

[weaponwh]

Taiwan is rich & its military spending is relatively modest. It could easily afford to increase its military budget.

Taiwan for its size is rich, but its economy is about $680B vs china $18T. it can certainly increase its defense budget to 4% GDP from the current 2%. but they also have to consider the opposite political party. dramatically increase military spending doesn't go well with locals.
their best bet is asy. warfare, diesel sub, anti-ship/air/mobile sam, cruise missile etc etc. F35 etc. would take so much of their budget for everything else.

 

[ngatimozart]

It did help. It greatly reduced the military force of Germany & Japan.

For example, shortages of imported metals meant that German jet engines had very short lives, German armour-piercing ammunition dropped in quality through the war, & German production of high-quality armour was limited. Shortages of oil greatly affected military operations for both Germany & Japan, & caused the diversion of a lot of German industrial production into synthetic oil plants.

And there were many other things which were affected by the blockade.

P.S. The existence & effectiveness of the blockade was taken into account by Spain when it refused to join the war (apart from a 'volunteer' corps fighting the USSR until 1944). Franco didn't want to be on the wrong side of the blockade. It was bad enough having imports controlled by the RN, & strategic materials rationed to stop them being passed on to Germany.

It should be noted that Germany didn't put its economy on to a war footing until 1942. If it had done that in 1939 things might have turned out a bit different.