Is NZ correct in scrapping the combat component of the RNZAF?

[dioditto]

My opinion on NZDF requiring an airforce is based on threat level. That's not to say NZ won't change it's policy if there is an CREDIBLE potential threat on the horizon. Right now, there is NONE. So why even spent a hefty portion of national budget on something that's not even needed? These money are better off spent on the other areas that are much more needed.

The proposition that, IF, (a BIG IF), China do really pose a threat and really start BUILDING massive blue-water fleets, there is plenty enough time for NZ to rebuild its airforce three times over. Remember, a blue-water fleet takes DECADES to build and train, and an invading carrier airforce would take far more than that. (to develop and train) Currently, in the next 20 years, I do not see China going to be able to do that.


Secondly, if the argument of a non-existant potential threat garners the need for an airforce....it's american interest groups talking. IF (another big IF) Chinese really do bent on taking out NZ, shouldn't NZ start building massive nuclear bomb shelters and spent trillions on missile defense (in the process, wrecking its own economy).. since for 30 years China have intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching NZ?? What's a mere 2 squadrons of airforce going to do against chinese SLBMs? (that far outrange them)

Let's be a little bit realistic, the biggest "POTENTIAL" threat to NZ is the north korean ballistic missiles. what can the 2 squadrons of RNZAF do to counter such threat? NZ doesn't even have the refueling capability for long range bombing. (much less manpower, resources and capability) And the probability of NK to nuke NZ is so remote, it is infinitesimal. NK have a bone to pick with America, it probably doesn't even know NZ is on the world map.

However, the only navy in the vicinity of NZ are the Australian navy, and the US Navy. If anything, the only real threat is from the potential disgruntle americans who got refused the port access due to their nuclear naval fleet.. (and also the cancelled sales of used F16s).

 

[Todjaeger]

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This is getting a bit long, so I'll leave it at that for now. I have further thoughts re the cv90-120 and others which I can post later if anyone would like to read them. Just say the word.

I'd be interested in hearing more about your ideas, I think I understand the premise you have, however info couldn't hurt. Maybe opening a separate thread perhaps?

As for RSAF jets stationed in NZ being able to exercise vs. RAAF fighters, I'm not sure how economical that would be. It's about 2,000 km from Au to NZ and the ferry range of the F/A-18 is only 2,700km. The ranges for an armed F/A-18 top out at 1,000 km. Given those distances the aircraft would have to fly from one nation to another and either engage in AAR or land to refuel. All this before conducting an exercise. Still, if it could be made to work it could potentially boost both NZ and Singapore.

Sorry, left one thing off. I'm still looking for an estimate on how long it would take the RNZAF to get IOC in a 12 jet squadron, assuming the already had the aircraft and all needed maintenance equipment. Would it be one year, five years, ten years? More, less? Eagerly awaiting people's input on this.

 

[Sea Toby]

I would say up to ten years to get quality trained fighter pilots if you start from scratch. On the other hand, if you are willing to recruit several trained pilots and hundreds of their mechanical technicians, a few years at the quickest. A quality air combat force cannot happen overnight in any scenario.

 

[Whiskyjack]

Interesting to read through the previous posts.

I agree with many of the previous posts, unless there is a significant strategic change Air Strike is not coming back. I would love to see 20 odd F-16s/Gripens in the RNZAF, but I can’t see it happening given the other priorities of the NZDF.

For me the issue now is how to make the best use of what the NZDF has now, and what more is required to get the NZDF there.

I read with interest the LO/LO ship idea, with containerised modules. This idea has been floating around for at least 20 years now, I remember after the Falklands the RN was considering the idea on a large container vessel that could also be converted to a light carrier for Harriers and Helos. The basic ship with barges/LCMs would be relatively cheap and with low operating costs. The cost as I see it would be the containerised modules for Hospital/Troop/Helo movement. But agree that this is a good concept for the NZDF in the South Pacific.

I have long been an advocate of having a mix of MPA and UAVs to monitor NZ’s EEZ and more general surveillance from the Antarctic to the Equator, with an ability to conduct limited precision strike off these assets. I note with interests that the Small Diameter Bomb has conducted trials against moving targets on land. IMHO having SDMs on a MPA/UAV in a low risk environment like the South Pacific where the launch vehicle will be at 40,000 ft may be an ideal and cost effective solution for the NZDF. Especially if it can be used against maritime targets as well.

Also agree that the along with sea lift the NZDF needs air lift, I would like to see at least 2 more NH90s and agree with 8 C-130s or 6 A400Ms. Agree that the NZDF needs a 3rd frigate and a 3rd manoeuvre element for the army.

The two main issues against this IMO are the capital cost and the ability to recruit enough personnel to man the equipment. Capital cost as a rough estimate for MPA, UAV, Airlift, LOLO Ships, a frigate and additional army equipment would be NZ$5 billion, even spread over a decade and taking into account that some of it may already be budgeted for, it will be at least an extra NZ$250m in capital a year, but would probably be more. The cost of additional personnel is already budgeted for to a large extent in the Govt’s ten year plan although I think additional money would be required.

Looking at NZ’s ability to fund I think that it is more than affordable, but the likelihood given NZ’s political situation is small.

 

[Todjaeger]

From a post in the RMAF thread, AD mentioned that NZ doesn't have plans to replace it's existing C-130H airlift component any time soon. Does anyone else have anything on this? My understanding is that the newest C-130H in the RNZAF inventory is 37 years old, and the oldest are 41 years old. When is it expected that they will have reached the end of their useful (or economic) service life? I can understand the decision to scrap the air combat arm given the current lack of threats. What I don't understand is why NZ would seem to give up operating a transport element or it that a misperception on my part?

 

[Aussie Digger]

From a post in the RMAF thread, AD mentioned that NZ doesn't have plans to replace it's existing C-130H airlift component any time soon. Does anyone else have anything on this? My understanding is that the newest C-130H in the RNZAF inventory is 37 years old, and the oldest are 41 years old. When is it expected that they will have reached the end of their useful (or economic) service life? I can understand the decision to scrap the air combat arm given the current lack of threats. What I don't understand is why NZ would seem to give up operating a transport element or it that a misperception on my part?

NZ has a planned upgrade program for it's C-130H aircraft, which is similar to that which the USAF is conducting. This upgrade is designed to give it another 15 years or so airframe life, IIRC. Others can no doubt expand on this...

 

[RubiconNZ]

Upgrade

Some RNZAF articles from the L3 website on it:

http://www.spar.ca/pdfs/Pages from FEB05.pdf

and a update:

http://www.spar.ca/pdfs/Pages from AFN65web.pdf

L3 has done quite well from the RNZAF lately winning all major aircraft modifications and upgrades.

 

[Retired-Oz]

Been looking back through this thread and as I'm not a navy person this may be an ill-informed comment. However, as a frigate appears to be overkill for most of the NZ local requirements. Would it not be better to upgrade the existing frigates to the level that the RAN Anzacs are headed, so that in the event of a significant conflict they could join the RAN rotation, rather than produce a third oversized patrol boat?

 

[Todjaeger]

Been looking back through this thread and as I'm not a navy person this may be an ill-informed comment. However, as a frigate appears to be overkill for most of the NZ local requirements. Would it not be better to upgrade the existing frigates to the level that the RAN Anzacs are headed, so that in the event of a significant conflict they could join the RAN rotation, rather than produce a third oversized patrol boat?

I believe there are plans to have the RNZN Anzacs upgraded, though not necessarily to the same degree as the RAN Anzacs. The appeal of a third frigate for the RNZN is that would allow ship rotation, one vessel deployed away from NZ, one undergoing training or in dock, and a third deployed around NZ. While it's a nice idea, I don't think it will happen. As I'd mentioned earlier there are sort of three routes to go about getting a third frigate and they are either expensive, 2nd hand, and/or have different parts/layout from the current Anzac frigates.

 

[Sea Toby]

New Zealand is giving their Hercules a life extension and cockpit (electronics) upgrade. The Orions have already had their lives extended, and are getting a similar cockpit (electronics) upgrade. Both aircraft may eventually get a self defence upgrade. Research the Long Term Developement Plan at their ministry of defence website.

As I have noted before on other threads, Orions and Hercules aircraft are very expensive aircraft. While a Hawk trainer may be bought for $15 million in US dollars, Hercules are selling for $100 million in US dollars. With a conversion factor close to 2-1, one new Hercules would cost $200 million in NZ dollars. An A-400 could cost twice as much more.

I have read somewhere recently that the Boeing P-8 replacements for the Orions may run over $150 million in US dollars. When it comes time to replace the Orions I'm not sure whether NZ can afford P-8s. New Zealand may have to settle for something less capable.

Considering the cost of Hercules and Orions replacements eventually, with aircrafts that are used daily, no wonder why Labour killed the air combat force. With its current defence spending posture, its gonna be difficult sustaining the Hercules and Orions, much less fighter jets.