Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

about the Su-35, one word appears in my mind..... CAATSA!

@Sandhi Yudha perhaps Donald do have make deals on CAATSA with Putin. If not, then I don't know how to proceed considering Indonesia Administration is in negotiations with US (like everyone else) on the Tariff. Yesterday Foreign Minister state Prabowo's administration even before Tariff issue, already try to arrange meeting with Trump.

So unless Trump already make exceptions on CAATSA, I don't think this administration want to enrage US administration over for only 6 Su-35 (as rumours being circulating). For that as my previous posts, I do sense more plausible on reviving Qatar Mirage 2000-5, then restart new Su-35 contract.

I sense the Russian Sales Guys just try their luck, in case some agreement do happen on CAATSA.

 

[Ananda]

This photos being circulate in X from local enthusiasts. The above seems JHMCS (potentially from Collins) and Sniper pod, JDAM, AIM-9X and AIM-120D. All belong to F-16 A/B MLU from 3rd Sq.

So despite all the rumours of Mirage 2000-5 as Interim fighters and potential Su-35 contracts, seems the larger Investment still goes to F-16 and Rafale. This doesn't mean either additional Flankers nor Mirage 2000-5 is proper Investment if being taken. However this is Indonesia and some questionable 'waste' will happen.

Add:


From TNI-AU X account.

https://x.com/_TNIAU/status/1911049706442252605?s=19

 

[Ananda]

Kementerian Pertahanan Republik Indonesia

Dalam kunjungan kerjanya ke Doha, Menhan RI Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin melakukan pertemuan dengan Menhan Qatar, H.E. Sheikh Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, pada Sabtu (12/4). Kedua menteri sepakat...

www.facebook.com

Both ministers agreed to enhance defence cooperation, including drone technology, cyber security, ballistic missile systems, officer exchanges, and joint military exercises.

Related to Qatar relationship, this is what I see why Mirage 2000-5 deal is still plausible and have more probability. All back to Prabowo's and Qatar Emir relationship, and seems now his successor as Defense Minister continue the path. While Su-35 even all the rumours on Indonesian Enthusiasts circles got stronger, just don't see it can be revived as Mirage 2000-5. Other card have to fall first and more importantly CAATSA. Thus make it being influence more by external factors, compare to Qatar Mirage 2000-5 deal.

Note:
The cooperation with Qatar on those area mentioned, means more Qatar Investment on those area. This is why in my previous post I said that the rumours on Mirage 2000-5 related more to Qatari Investment fund.

 

[Ananda]

Prabowo: Qatar Komit Investasi US$ 2 Miliar ke Danantara Indonesia

Prabowo merespons positif langkah Qatar.

www.cnbcindonesia.com

Add this, as this is also what I heard from finance guys on recent Prabowo's trip to Gulf Kingdoms and Turkey. I don't put it on previous post, but only hinting it until official announcement come out. To Turkiye on matter to improve defense industry, to Gulf Kingdoms on matter of Investment. Including the Investment to Defenses Industry and Indonesia Sovereign Fund Danantara. Danantara is basically corner stone from Prabowo's administration to increase Investment projects in Indonesia.

Thus asside from Qatar Mirage 2000-5 that he already agreed with Qatari Emir, he also being talk continue shown interest with UAE Mirage 2000-9. If the condition meet (thus attach with financing and Investment packages), his administration aim another squadron or even two squadrons from ex UAE Mirage 2000.

This is why in Indonesian case, defense procurement also involved politics and potential trade and Investment negotiations. It is usually never only related to Defenses Logistics consideration only.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

15 years ago, the procurement of Qatari Mirage 2000-5 and UAE's Mirage 2000-9 fleets could be a good idea, with the retirement of the SkU 14's F-5E/F light fighters and only 16 Sukhois and 33 F-16s in the fleet as real decent fighter jets. But now, unupgraded, they will start to become obsolete.

France is now upgrading its Mirage 2000Ds to 2000DRMV (D Rénovation Mi-Vie) niveau, but i don't know if it is suitable for Indonesia.

 

[x100 XKR]

15 years ago, the procurement of Qatari Mirage 2000-5 and UAE's Mirage 2000-9 fleets could be a good idea, with the retirement of the SkU 14's F-5E/F light fighters and only 16 Sukhois and 33 F-16s in the fleet as real decent fighter jets. But now, unupgraded, they will start to become obsolete.

France is now upgrading its Mirage 2000Ds to 2000DRMV (D Rénovation Mi-Vie) niveau, but i don't know if it is suitable for Indonesia.

It's actually kind of interesting to me personally ..... Depending on the price and what comes w the purchase, the dash 5 should be good interim step for the AF to master the Rafale. It's a good hi-lo mix with Rafale. I can picture Rafale running CAP, with the MIrage as bomb truck lite with 6 AASM. It does put the F15EX affordability into the question (as if it is not under a big question mark already).

For SCS theater, short of F22, IMO nothing beats F15EX with its combination of long range, radar and missile truck capability but seems like the program is beset by politics (as usual). Rafale comes close I guess, but even in heavy load BARCAP/TARCAP - compared to EX, combat persistence is on a different level.

BTW - what is the latest news on KF21?

The So Koreans have been running their weapons program really impressively IMO. Thunder SPH is a market leader. Their shipbuilding industry has been cranking out massive DDGs, and KF21 dev/test programs seem to be proceeding really well. This program seems tailor made to be the right replacement pipeline for the current Hawk and F16 fleet.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It's actually kind of interesting to me personally ..... Depending on the price and what comes w the purchase, the dash 5 should be good interim step for the AF to master the Rafale. It's a good hi-lo mix with Rafale. I can picture Rafale running CAP, with the MIrage as bomb truck lite with 6 AASM. It does put the F15EX affordability into the question (as if it is not under a big question mark already).

For SCS theater, short of F22, IMO nothing beats F15EX with its combination of long range, radar and missile truck capability but seems like the program is beset by politics (as usual). Rafale comes close I guess, but even in heavy load BARCAP/TARCAP - compared to EX, combat persistence is on a different level.

BTW - what is the latest news on KF21?

The So Koreans have been running their weapons program really impressively IMO. Thunder SPH is a market leader. Their shipbuilding industry has been cranking out massive DDGs, and KF21 dev/test programs seem to be proceeding really well. This program seems tailor made to be the right replacement pipeline for the current Hawk and F16 fleet.

A fleet of Hawk Mk109/209, T-50i, F-16AM/BM/C/D, Mirage 2000-5, Mirage 2000-9, Rafale, F-15EX, Su-27SKM, Su-30MK2, and then also maybe KF-21.... what an operational, maintenance and logistical nightmare that will be. TNI-AU will probably become world's less efficient and most complicated air force ever, with only a budget left over for once or twice a year a fly-over / air show.

Here below the last posts from the KF-X thread.

With just one year remaining until the project’s completion, Indonesia has contributed only $274,4 million so far—just 25% of its pledged amount.

According to investment banking sources, the South Korean government is now considering a plan to divide Indonesia’s outstanding contribution of 470 billion won ($322,2 million), with approximately $239,9 million covered by the government (74,5%) and about 82.3 million by KAI (25,5%).

Exclusive: S. Korea to cover Indonesia’s KF-21 shortfall, raising burden on KAI

Exclusive: S. Korea to cover Indonesias KF-21 shortfall, raising burden on KAI KAI faces extra $82.3 million burden in revised KF-21 cost split

www.chosun.com

PTDI Beberkan Kelanjutan Proyek Pesawat Tempur KFX-IFX

Setelah 2026 proyek pengembangan jet tempur KF-21 sudah memasuki masa produksi pesawat. #bisnisupdate #update #bisnis #text

kumparan.com

The article you put seems also being confirmed by DI CEO. In sense both Korean and Indonesian sources shown that the Indonesia focus more on become part of production supply chain and Korea focus more on Indonesia as 1st customer.

All the rumours circulating that Indonesia believe their tech shares not worth their 20% shares, or the money being diverted for new capital city, or (as rumours) Indonesia want to pursue different partner for Fighter program with DI.

The facility for KFX/IFX already prepare in DI although as I have mentioned before also so far still mostly empty hangar without enough investment yet for assembly line, jigs etc. Further investment needed, but seems DI CEO also hinted it is depends on the order of that 48 KF/IF-21.

Whether that 48 order will still be KF-21 or Rafale is the question, as Dasault lobby for further order of Rafale include offer on setting up final assembly line (FAL) in DI. Thus could the hangar for KF-21 that's already prepare will then change to hangar for Rafale?

 

[Ananda]

In post #3,192 I already post cost share KFX/KF-21 for this year allocation. Thus Indonesia so far shown 'commitment' to at least pay up their 7% (down from 20%) share dues in overall RnD project. However whether they want to continue on the plan 48 KF/IF-21, that's the question.

Question of USD 8-12bio allocation budget. That budget 'if' can be afforded the choice are:
1. 24-36 F-15EX,
2. Another 42-48 Rafale,
3. 48 KF-21.
4. 36 Flankers

Because simply there's question of affordability of Indonesia fiscal allocations for those projects. Seems has to be chooses which will be taken. I got feeling #1 will be taken, as part of negotiations with US on Tariffs. Indonesian ministerial level team already go to US to negotiate, and potentially F-15EX can be part of negotiations.

However Dasault already talk (base on Rumours) with DI on setting up assembly and some Production line for Rafale. That's potentially will use production hangar that's being prepared for KF-21/IF-21. Thus KF/IF-21 procurement fortune, seems going to be decide as whether Indonesia/DI still goes with KAI or Dasault as fighter program partner.

2 Sq of Hawk 200/100 already been talk by TNI-AU going to be replace by Rafale when they are operational. That 1sq of ex Qatar Mirage 2000-5 can also be replace later on when all 3 Sq of Rafale being operational. The target still 11sq Fighters being operational. Currently TNI-AU have 3 F-16, 2 Hawk 200/100, 1 Flankers, 1 TA-50 and 1 Super Tucano.

So if they got later on 3 Sq Rafale, 3 F-16, 1 TA-50 and 1 Sq Super Tucano, then the question for whose going to fill additional 3 Sq to make it 11 can be:
1. F-15EX (up to 36),
2. Rafale (up to 42-48),
3. KF-21 (up to 48),
4. Flankers (up to 36).

At least that's the way I see it on the plan so far base on Rumours and media bits. Flankers seems the choice on most affordability, if they can't get the higher budget number for others. Although China can also be another candidate on affordability factor with J-10C.

Like I said before I got sense they can be force to go for #1 due to Tariff negotiations, personally I hope for #2 but if looking on budget affordability #4 can come out, but 'only' if they can nego with Trump on CAATSA. However if negotiations failed, they can go to surprise #5 of J-10C just simply to give middle finger to Trump . Something I sense least likely to happen, but with Trump card, who knows.

 

[Ananda]

Boeing Bujuk Prabowo Borong 24 Jet Tempur

Boeing menawarkan sejumlah keuntungan bagi pemerintah Indonesia dalam rangka mendorong percepatan pembelian 24 jet tempur generasi 4.5, F-15EX.

finance.detik.com

Boeing Janji Libatkan Industri Lokal di Produksi Jet Tempur Pesanan RI

Boeing dan Kemenhan sudah meneken MoU sebagai langkah awal menuju kontrak pembelian jet tempur generasi terbaru F-15EX.

www.cnnindonesia.com

Boeing Increasing their marketing campaigns with fluries of media drive and press meeting. Basically what they are campaigns:

1. Similar specs of F-15IDN and US F-15EX,
2. Low operational costs of USD 29K (this I believe to counter rival campaigns that F-15 has much higher operational costs),
3. Fast operational readiness when enter Indonesia service,
4. 85% value of contract will be offset by projects in Indonesian Aerospace Industry.

#4 is not mean local content (I found some local journalists put that), but means Boeing will invest or work with local Aerospace Industry or related ones in the amount of 85% of the contract.

With Indonesian negotiations team now in US to talk with their US counterpart on compensation projects for Tariff reduction, plus this activities, just feel that Boeing got strong support to implement previous MoU for 24 F-15IDN.

Well so much for my wish of more Rafale. This also means some adjustments on other defense projects will happen. The package for that 24 F-15IDN being rumours will be in similar ball park to previous 42 Rafale.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Boeing Bujuk Prabowo Borong 24 Jet Tempur

Boeing menawarkan sejumlah keuntungan bagi pemerintah Indonesia dalam rangka mendorong percepatan pembelian 24 jet tempur generasi 4.5, F-15EX.

finance.detik.com

Boeing Janji Libatkan Industri Lokal di Produksi Jet Tempur Pesanan RI

Boeing dan Kemenhan sudah meneken MoU sebagai langkah awal menuju kontrak pembelian jet tempur generasi terbaru F-15EX.

www.cnnindonesia.com

Boeing Increasing their marketing campaigns with fluries of media drive and press meeting. Basically what they are campaigns:

1. Similar specs of F-15IDN and US F-15EX,
2. Low operational costs of USD 29K (this I believe to counter rival campaigns that F-15 has much higher operational costs),
3. Fast operational readiness when enter Indonesia service,
4. 85% value of contract will be offset by projects in Indonesian Aerospace Industry.

#4 is not mean local content (I found some local journalists put that), but means Boeing will invest or work with local Aerospace Industry or related ones in the amount of 85% of the contract.

With Indonesian negotiations team now in US to talk with their US counterpart on compensation projects for Tariff reduction, plus this activities, just feel that Boeing got strong support to implement previous MoU for 24 F-15IDN.

Well so much for my wish of more Rafale. This also means some adjustments on other defense projects will happen. The package for that 24 F-15IDN being rumours will be in similar ball park to previous 42 Rafale.

|"Jika Indonesia memilih F-15EX, Boeing akan memenuhi 85 persen kebutuhan melalui produksi dan dukungan lokal. Kami memiliki tim yang kuat dan berdedikasi yang telah beberapa kali datang ke Indonesia dalam setahun terakhir untuk menjajaki peluang kemitraan dan investasi," ujar Novotny dalam media gathering di Kantor Boeing Indonesia, Jakarta Pusat, Selasa (15/4).

Oleh karena itu, Boeing mendorong keterlibatan perusahaan dalam negeri untuk menjadi bagian dari ekosistem F-15EX di Indonesia."|

I have little bit my doubts about Boeing, Lion Group ordered 230 Boeing 737 NGs and MAXes with a total value of $22,4 billion, but the amount of Indonesian contents in those Boeings is extremely limited.

|"but means Boeing will invest or work with local Aerospace Industry or related ones in the amount of 85% of the contract."|

And what do they mean with this? Also about this i am skeptical, i hope it will not be something like Apple planned, just spending $100.000.000 on an "education project".

The F-15EX is still much more expensive in acquisition, operations and maintenance than the F-16V. Do we urgently need the F-15EX and is the F-15EX really that much better?

 

[Ananda]

little bit my doubts about Boeing, Lion Group ordered 230 Boeing 737 NGs and MAXes with a total value of $22,4 billion, but the amount of Indonesian contents in those Boeings is extremely limited.

I believe when the contract mostly in the form of Civilians Airlines lease (as Lion Air or Garuda) and defense procurement, it will be different calculation on off set compensation.

Also about this i am skeptical, i hope it will not be something like Apple planned, just spending $100.000.000 on an "education project".

The USD 100 mio that apple Invest (as compensation for Apple 16 access to Indonesia) is for Airpods manufacturing. Before that they only want to invest USD 10 mio for education and development projects.

As for Boeing Off Set, in sense it is similar with Dasault off set to Indonesia. Dasault offer to include Indonesia Aerospace Industry in their Global Supply chain and Boeing offer the same. This include manufacturing parts and also MRO. Question will be how far Indonesia Aerospace Industry readiness to get involved in their value chain network.

Dasault for example offering India settings up productions line if they got MRFA 114 Fighter contract and involvement substantial India domestic industry as part suppliers. Similar thing that SAAB set up in Brazil. Thus how far your own industry able to absorb the work also become determining factor on what kind of offset you will be given.

Do we urgently need the F-15EX and is the F-15EX really that much better?

Well no doubt F-15EX has better capabilities then F-16V. However it is also related to differences on the roles. Whether F-16V or F-15EX more suitable for Indonesian budget conditions, it is depends on how far the budget can be supported. Boeing talk on USD 29K operational cost per flight hour. I believe that claim aim to those who support Flankers or F-16V arguments.

If the operating costs for F-15EX really on that number, then personally for me that change calculations on overall operating budget. It will not cost much difference then F-16 or Rafale that claim cost 18K-22K per hour and cheaper then Flankers which talk cost around 34K perhour. Those numbers I got from various online media related to Aerospace. Honestly that Boeing claim operating costs that for me I'm bit skeptical.

Add:
Indonesia is not part of full US defense networking. Thus some of aspects on F-15EX equipment will not be fully utilized by F-15IDN. Like EPAWSS hardware will not have optimized capabilities without US network and databases. I believe Indonesia also will not want to be too much integrated with US networks. Thus IDN will limit itself on some matters. Just like QA version on Qatar F-15 or I suspect even SG version on Singapore F-15.

I suspect those are part of cost negotiations.