...freefall bombs are useless for air defence and using them to bomb invading naval vessels is pure suicide these days.
1. Against Type 055 destroyers and Type 054A frigates (or even second line combatants like the Type 056), use of dumb bombs is a suicidal move (as an Indonesia fighter aircraft can’t get within range before it is shot down) — especially in a troubled peace scenario, where the decision for escalation is a choice of China.
(a) In a troubled peace, I expect the sinking of 1 to 2 Indonesian ships (or a flight of 2 to 4 Indonesian fighters), before peace talks begin and neutrals like Australia, Thailand, Korea or Singapore make an offer to come in — see NLL naval examples in Korea for the various troubled peace scenarios. And the TNI needs ADMM Plus neutrals who are willing to take risk to support a troubled peace fairly (and only if these navies have a good enough relationship with the TNI AL).
(b) For a troubled peace scenario, Indonesia as a G20 country with a trillion dollar economy must think in terms of developing the capability to conduct an attack from the air, up to 72 km away, against certain types of littoral naval targets, using multiple small diameter bomb IIs, launched at each vessel and delivered by TNI AU F-16s (and their future fighter buys), are the way to go to kill PLA(N) Type 22 FAC swarms (as we don’t want to waste a million dollar missiles against such low value small craft).
(c) This form of smart bomb delivery attack (combined with hellfire or such other missile delivery from TNI AU Apaches) can be a tactic against a small FAC swarm of 12 to 36 vessels; and likewise China’s PLA(N) will plan to use dumb bombs or UAV launched missiles against Indonesia’s KCR-60 vessels and below — which is why I keep talking about force structure for sortie generation on a 365 day basis in an area of dispute. It’s a waste of a PLA(N) anti-ship missile to use against the TNI AL’s FACs, as they have to means to spoof and decoy the TNI AL’s Chinese anti-ship missile. TNI AL’s continued building of 40 metre FACs that don’t have the needed endurance to sortie against the Type 22 is a waste of your country’s precious resources.
2. This is why I keep asking — both the TNI AL and TNI AU have to decide who the enemy is. Is it the US Navy / Singapore Navy or the PLA(N)? If PLA(N) is the notional enemy, why has the Indonesian Air Force bought a batch of AR-2 small diameter air-to-ground missiles for its CH-4B UAV fleet? The missiles are similar to the Hellfire missile used by American Reaper UAVs. Incidentally, these Chinese made TNI AU UAVs are expected to be deployed in the Natuna Islands region to guard against Chinese intrusions into the Natuna Islands and its EEZ in the southern parts of South China Sea. I can’t believe the stupidity of proposing to buy twin engine European fighters (with incompatible weapons to existing inventory, along with a high OPEX cost) and Chinese UAVs, when the TNI AU needs to deliver a certain volume of surface ordinance against:
(a) multiple PLA(N) targets like a swarm of PLA(N) FACs; or
(b) an even more dangerous Type 055 led naval task group.
3. By 2030s, the PLA(N), it’s carrier task groups, and its armed coast guard, with a mandate to shoot, will be even more assertive in the South China Sea, and they will use grey zone tactics to wear out TNI AL’s KCR-60 vessels and sailors from daily patrols. I wish the TNI good luck to generate the needed naval patrols, when a maritime militia swarm arrives — with the Singapore Navy watching as an armed neutral, nearby. What type of relationship Indonesia decides to build with Singapore is a choice it’s armed forces and people must make.
4. For others within ASEAN to believe that Indonesia, as its leader, is able to chart an independent foreign policy, your country must develop a limited military capability to be independent from 2030 to 2049. As a 2 frigate navy, the country has less than a limited capability to patrol its waters in the face of capable opposition in a troubled peace; and the TNI AU’s choices made today, will deeply affect future capability. While Indonesia may not be preparing to fight China (and understandably so), I can assure you the PLA(N) and its maritime militia has plans in your country’s EEZ and will aggressively enforce its disputed claim in the near future; to ensure a troubled peace.
5. As I
said in another thread, Australia and Singapore have capable air forces that don’t have enough fighters for a hot war — the force structure is too small to take combat induced attrition (over a period of 30 days). But we can inject a man with a gun in most troubled peace scenarios but our capabilities, even when combined under the FPDA auspices are limited, when compared to the JSDF or Korean Armed Forces. Therefore, I see the Australian and Singaporean desire for our air forces and navies to be more capable as a desire to secure a troubled peace.
6. After watching the
PLA teach a lesson to the Indian Army at their disputed border in 2020, by killing 20 Indian soldiers by clubbing them to death, as part of their troubled peace plans, I hope Indonesia will brace yourself for a troubled peace when your country’s turn to be tested comes.
dunia.tempo.co
