I really hope it will be not a cheap 3rd World Country way to get suddenly one or more fighter squadrons out of nowhere.
US right now is preparing to upgrade 300+ of their F-16 to be used at least another two decades. By that time those F-16 will be in average of 50 years old. So buying used F-16 and upgrade them is not a cheap 3rd world country solution
This method off course will create many debates, and some will used it to discredit the administration. Just like PDI attack SBY decision to buy 24 used but upgraded F-16 C/D, instead 8 brand new Block 52.
I put the scenario above just my potential prediction on what can happen. From present TNI-AU Fighters 8 sq ORBAT, 1 (F-5) already without operating aircraft and other 2 (Hawk 200/100) already showing deteriorating capabilities in operational and now numbers.
Thus if they still want to get in to 11 Sq Fighters ORBAT as TNI-AU aim, then they have to prepare six Fighters sq's with 3 for replacement and another 3 for additional growth.
Do Indonesia have budget for all 6 new Fighters sq's ? What if 3 sq of new fighters and 3 sq used but upgraded Fighters, comes as alternative ?
Well they're talking to Austria on getting used Eurofighters (albeit with relative low flying hours). I don't know about what this Norway F-16 will be, probably they will be used as spares. It's not new, the previous Bimasena 2 consists of 24 upgrade F-16 for fully operational use and 6 Spares.
Thus probably you're right, those ex Norway F-16 will be used as spares.
Got rumours (as got only through conversation), TNI-AU at this moment actually has 3:1 for Pilot - Fighter ratio for 8 sq. Thus if they want to maintain 2:1 ratio, they have enough Manning for 11 Sq. This's what I heard as "rumours" on why TNI-AU seems quite confidence for 11 Sq Fighters ORBAT, as seems they have enough Manning production.
Again all this just my own speculation on how TNI-AU going to get to 11 Sq within shortest possible route. Based on what I read in media, the potential tendencies what MinDef actions, and what realities on Budget.
So far the used but upgraded F-16 showing acceptable operational readiness. Thus shown doing with proper upgrade, those "old" F-16 still can provide acceptable performance.
Buying ex Norway F-16 perhaps will be more as spares to keep those F-16 in acceptable readiness. However the path for additional used but upgraded F-16 in my opinion can't be discounted yet as one option to be taken as strategy to get in to TNI-AU target postures.
Unless the Administration prepare for "more than proportional" Investment for Air Force. Considering they are also preparing another big Investment for Navy, I have doubt they will prepare to invest on 3 sq's of brand new F-16 plus another 3 sq's of brand new fighters (that could be Rafale, Eurofighter, or Flankers).
Well they can go for LCA (FA-50) instead F-16V, Rafale, Eurofighters or Flankers. Now if that what they're going to do, perhaps they will be enough budget for 6 sq's of brand new LCA.
Oohh well, that's enough for potential scenarios talking