Indonesian Aero News

Ananda

The Bunker Group
we just have 5 fighter squadrons: SkU 1, 3, 11, 12 and 16.
- SkU 15 only has some jettrainers (from which i understand most T-50i's dont even have a cannon, am i right?)
- The EMB314 Super Tucano: thats not a jet fighter
- Sku 14: a fighter squadron with grounded obsolete fighters--> doesnt actually even exist!
TNI-AU T-50 actually belong to TA-50 variants. Thus they have capabilities for Light Fighter just like Hawk Mk 53 they are replacing. That's why their number has TT before the number. TT means "Tempur Taktis" or Tactical Fighters.
There for TNI-AU still consider them part of their ORBAT. Compared to KT-1 which has LL in front of the number which means "Latih Lanjut" or advance trainers.
This in bahasa, but can be used as guidance on TNI-AU numbering.

T-50 being used as LIFT by TNI-AU just as Hawk 53, but also part of ORBAT as secondary fighters.
As for Super Tucano, just like OV-10 they are replacing, those COIN is consider ORBAT as they are being used for Combat. They are not jet fighter, but they are combat fighter nonetheless. Even though I'm not in support for TNI-AU insistence on keeping specialise COIN Fighter. They should let it go after OV-10.

Sq 14, well they're don't have Fighter yet as F-5 replacement more to this Su-35 on going 'Drama'. They are being redrawn on 2015, with assumption that by 2016 the replacement being contracted and their pilots will then begin training familiarisation.
Now their Pilot bring seconded to other Sq thus the reason few Flankers being seconded to that sq is 'in my opinion' to give their pilots still in that Sq 'flying time'.

Thus in TNI-AU Orbat, those three Sq consider as Fighters and part of Orbat.
There are some talk before to replace 2 sq Hawk 200 with F-16V. There are other talk on Hawk 200 being merge to one sq while the empty sq will be fill by F-16. However there are also talk Hawk 200 being replaced by FA-50.

Again this all part of the planning. To have ORBAT of 10 sq, to have Hawk 200 being replaced by F-16 or FA-50, in the end budget will determine which are the plan they're keeping.

Anyway that Rafale idea that being float by French, well if that happen you can forgot on Flankers and F-16 in TNI-AU inventory in long term future. The cost of Rafale introduction will take away fund from maintaining Flankers and F-16 on long run.

If MinDef pick 3sq Rafale as being floated by French, then the current 1sq Flankers and 2 sq of F-16 will be replaced by Rafale. It will take French at least 5-6 years to produce 3 sq of Rafale, thus enough time left to begin phasing out F-16 and Flankers.

Don't think we will have enough Budget left for TNI-AU to get F-16V, we will even then potentially has to really drop our involvement with KFX program (well there's signs on that too), but to keep our defense Industry relationship with South Korea, perhaps we can go to license manufacturing of FA-50 instead. FA-50 will be Economics enough to procured and maintain up to 5 sq.

Thus for me if this administration choose Rafale, then TNI-AU Orbat 2030+ (if 10 sq still in plan):
3 sq Rafale, 5 sq light fighter/FA-50, 1sq TA-50 and 1 sq of Tucano.
In short we simply can't afford to maintain Rafale, Flankers, F-16V at same time in the inventory.
 
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ChestnutTree

Active Member

Neat little article of F-16 pilots being doused in disinfected upon returning from a patrol mission. Although I don't quite understand the need of disinfecting an individual practically encased alone in a bubble at thousands of feet in the air, it's nice to see the F-16's doing routine air patrols again instead of simply being parade pieces.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

Neat little article of F-16 pilots being doused in disinfected upon returning from a patrol mission. Although I don't quite understand the need of disinfecting an individual practically encased alone in a bubble at thousands of feet in the air, it's nice to see the F-16's doing routine air patrols again instead of simply being parade pieces.
During Operasi Trisakti 20, the F-16s were based at Lanud Pattimura, although its another airbase than Iswahyudi, its still inside Indonesia. Ambon is (almost?) nCoV-free, besides that an airbase is quite isolated and guarded from outside.
So yes, in my opinion its just useless. But under new and unexpected circumstances, people often take weird safety measures, do strange actions and making stupid rules.
Sometimes its caused by stupidity, sometimes just to show their superiors how 'professional' they are.



 

ChestnutTree

Active Member
In other news, it seems that the MLU F-16's are going to be given the air superiority gray camouflage scheme over the distinct "Milennium Scheme" seen on all previous Vipers in AU service. I never thought I would see the day that the AU would finally use air superiority gray over their usual colorful camo schemes. I was never a big fan of them, they screamed parade colors to me.



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Ahmad

Active Member
Seems like this site has been upgraded and we can get notification from other member who like or reply our post :cool:

Despite so I hope the post count and registration year can still be put on our profile account @WebMaster

I predict we dont buy any new fighters until 2024, except for F 5 replacement. More money will be allocated for navy, particularly for 3 submarines, 2 frigates, and 2 OPV. We also need to pay for KFX/IFX program if the renegotiation is reached. Our economic condition is also deteriorating after we have Covid 19 outbreak in the country and also whole world, so 2020 defense budget IMO will likely be slashed as our 2020 year budget get pressured from the outbreak effect. Rupiah is plunged aswell, so dont hope to much there is any new fighter acquisition that we are going to hear at this April or even until December.

Talking about our MALE UAV program, from latest news it reveals that we are going to make three prototypes this year and one of them will undergo maiden flight in November. The decision to make all three prototypes this year IMO is due to recent decision to fasten the program that comes directly from Jokowi himself. One prototype for development, second one for maiden flight, and the third for structural test to get military certification for strike capable drone.

The drone program is aimed to get weaponized in 2022, or two years earlier than previous plan. I think if we can complete the development until 2024 as recent plan reveals, it will be a huge achievement for our aerospace sector since even India is still straggling with their MALE UAV program and one of their prototype was just crushed in November last year.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Seems like this site has been upgraded and we can get notification from other member who like or reply our post :cool:

Despite so I hope the post count and registration year can still be put on our profile account @WebMaster

I predict we dont buy any new fighters until 2024, except for F 5 replacement. More money will be allocated for navy, particularly for 3 submarines, 2 frigates, and 2 OPV. We also need to pay for KFX/IFX program if the renegotiation is reached. Our economic condition is also deteriorating after we have Covid 19 outbreak in the country and also whole world, so 2020 defense budget IMO will likely be slashed as our 2020 year budget get pressured from the outbreak effect. Rupiah is plunged aswell, so dont hope to much there is any new fighter acquisition that we are going to hear at this April or even until December.

Talking about our MALE UAV program, from latest news it reveals that we are going to make three prototypes this year and one of them will undergo maiden flight in November. The decision to make all three prototypes this year IMO is due to recent decision to fasten the program that comes directly from Jokowi himself. One prototype for development, second one for maiden flight, and the third for structural test to get military certification for strike capable drone.

The drone program is aimed to get weaponized in 2022, or two years earlier than previous plan. I think if we can complete the development until 2024 as recent plan reveals, it will be a huge achievement for our aerospace sector since even India is still straggling with their MALE UAV program and one of their prototype was just crushed in November last year.
Im afraid that Jokowi and his party will grab the opportunity to use the 2019-nCoV hype to cancel most defence-programs, with the only survivors the Elang Hitam UAV, Pandur II and (maybe) the Type 209/1400 batch 2.
I expect that any budget left over will be used to continue with the infrastructure projects, in stead of defence these projects always have the priority for this administration.

Looking to the whole F-5 replacement program and many other programs, this administration do not really care about modernizing and strengthen TNI.
So yes, i also dont expect any new fighters before 2024.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Im afraid that Jokowi and his party will grab the opportunity to use the 2019-nCoV hype to cancel most defence-programs, with the only survivors the Elang Hitam UAV, Pandur II and (maybe) the Type 209/1400 batch 2.
I expect that any budget left over will be used to continue with the infrastructure projects, in stead of defence these projects always have the priority for this administration.

Looking to the whole F-5 replacement program and many other programs, this administration do not really care about modernizing and strengthen TNI.
So yes, i also dont expect any new fighters before 2024.
While I tend to agree, I think practically every country in the region are doing the same. Singapore might be the sole exception, but even they will experience some realignment in priorities.

About the only defense projects that will continue are the ones that can be "sold" as a domestic defense industry partnership. The actual level of domestic involvement is of secondary importance, as long as it is sufficient to convince the parliament/congress/politburo. It's not coincidence that your list of expected survivors is all stuff that will be made locally. To that list I will add the Harimau/Kaplan and the NC-212i and C-295. The N-219 I think will survive, but it's a civilian project, so I'm not sure if it will have a significant effect on Indonesia's defense modernization. There's going to be some naval ships that can be built locally, but as far as the Indonesian Air Force procurement goes, it is going to be mostly stuff that Indonesian Aerospace make for the next few years.

As I've said several times before, President Joko Widodo entrusts defense matters to the defense ministry. He's a civilian who knows that he doesn't understand defense matters and thus he appoints retired army generals thinking that they understand defense. Common mistake among Indonesians actually, appointing retired generals thinking that means they're competent. But anyway, it is up to Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto to champion the modernization. He has to be able to "sell" the idea to parliament to get the funding and then manage it. My take is if he can sell the idea that domestic production will act as a job creation program and a way to inject some money into the economy, he can keep some projects going.

Stuff like buying Su-35 from Russia though is as good as cancelled though. Even the F-16 procurement will be delayed.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
Im afraid that Jokowi and his party will grab the opportunity to use the 2019-nCoV hype to cancel most defence-programs, with the only survivors the Elang Hitam UAV, Pandur II and (maybe) the Type 209/1400 batch 2.
I expect that any budget left over will be used to continue with the infrastructure projects, in stead of defence these projects always have the priority for this administration.

Looking to the whole F-5 replacement program and many other programs, this administration do not really care about modernizing and strengthen TNI.
So yes, i also dont expect any new fighters before 2024.
I believe Jokowi administration will still sign an effective contract for F 5 replacement some where between 2021-2024. But as I stated earlier, this is the only fighter procurement that will likely take place with his second term. It can be either F 35 as it is the fighter that is preferred by new Minister of Defense or SU 35 as we have already sign the contract although not yet become effective. With the fact that even new 3 Changbogo contract is also likely to be delayed to become effective, I believe fighter jet procurement for our new fighter squadron will wait until Jokowi administration finishes.

And it is actually a good sign for KFX/IFX program if Indonesia is still in the program since our new fighter squadron will likely be all consisted of KFX/IFX, it is due to a law that prohibit defense acquisition of a foreign made equipment that can be produced inside the country.

Bonus: Lapan cruise missile program conducts flight test

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Ahmad

Active Member
Look like our T50 Golden Eagle has been equipped with Sidewinder missile during latest exercise in Papua. During Jokowi first term, we bought radar for our T 50 squadron.

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Ahmad

Active Member
This year we are really screwed. I hope this coronavirus outbreak can be over soon. No Major weapon will be bought this year, either for Navy, Armed Force, or Air Force. Big slashed on defense budget has been revealed by media. The rest of the budget IMO will be used for operational, salary, ammunition, hunting Papuan rebel, and any contract that have already become effective either for defense equipment or research purposes.

Bonus picture: NC 212i

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Ahmad

Active Member
Covid 19 will surely effect PT Dirgantara Indonesia this year, so I expect they will not get any new contract this year for either CN 235 and C 212i. Despite so, PT DI has already got effective contract for 9 C 212 i from government last year and there is none which has been delivered yet, so the production line will likely be kept busy this year until the end of 2021 or mid 2022, while last year they were busy completing orders from Senegal and Thailand for CN 235 and C 212i. They have also bough around 24 engine for C212 around 2018 and has been delivered last year, so this year until next year looks to be quite safe for this company operation financially.

I also believe they have got enough funding for N 219 development until completing its production certification which is expected to happen between July until August this year. Once they get the production certificate, they will start producing 4 planes for Aceh Province inshaAllah since the contract has already been effective. The delivery time will be started from 2022 according to their source. I think the situation will be normal again around 2021 so PT Dirgantara will likely get another effective contract in 2021 from 120 planes order based on MOU they have signed with various airlines before.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Covid-19 has and will affect every economy in the world and it will not be pretty. The coming economic depression is going to be a big one and many countries are going to suffer badly, developed, developing and undeveloped. As such most, but not all, will concentrate a significant portion of their funding on economic and social expenditure. However some unscrupulous nations will use what money they have to take advantage of others misery.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
That last sentence has popped up here and there among observers. Let's just hope it's unnecessary worry.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
This year we are really screwed. I hope this coronavirus outbreak can be over soon. No Major weapon will be bought this year, either for Navy, Armed Force, or Air Force. Big slashed on defense budget has been revealed by media. The rest of the budget IMO will be used for operational, salary, ammunition, hunting Papuan rebel, and any contract that have already become effective either for defense equipment or research purposes.

Bonus picture: N 219 with winglet in its wings. Look like N 219 final configuration for mass production will use winglet. They will surely compare the flight performance before and after they put winglet on the wings.

View attachment 47305

Im sorry, but thats not a N219, but a NC212i (improved NC212-400).
An N219 looks like this...46693486_1727710027340867_4890701239678261934_n.jpg.cf.jpg
 

Ahmad

Active Member
Im sorry, but thats not a N219, but a NC212i (improved NC212-400).
An N219 looks like this...View attachment 47307
NC 212i looks different with C 212. Is the development of C 212 into NC 212i conducted by PT Dirgantara Indonesia ?

As we know unlike CN 235 which is developed jointly by Casa and PTDI with 50 : 50 shares, for C 212 we only buy production license. Despite so NC 212i uses the word i which means Indonesia so I guess its design improvement might be done by Indonesia since in middle of 2000 Casa doesnt produce C 212 anymore and give all of the tools to PTDI.

C 212

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NC 212i

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Ananda

The Bunker Group
My take is if he can sell the idea that domestic production will act as a job creation program and a way to inject some money into the economy, he can keep some projects going.
Considering that the fall out of this COVID 19 is the local manufacturing industry, any program that shown more utilisation on domestic industry will have political back up.
Thus on Aerospace any program that help DI, Frigates, Corvettes, OPV that being build Locally, Pindad armoured vehicle, etc..this is kind of program I do think will get political support to continue during and after COVID 19.

How about Fighters, AEW, Tankers that can't being sourced to DI ? Will it be postponed ?
Defenitely they're going to be rescheduling on those kind of projects, but one thing I would like to add, this COVID 19 will also see whose support that Indonesia going to relied on much, and that will determine how those kind procurement will proceed in future.

BI as central Bank few days ago told market that they already secured guarantee line from Fed's in the amount of USD 60bio.
That announcement help stabilize market panics much. That line represents half of Indonesia Forex Reserve. That line guarantee BI to have USD 180 bio of USD liquidity (120 forex reserve + 60 bio Fed's line), which is big for Indonesian market or any Asia-Pacific market save China or Japan.
That's not like a credit line from IMF that have a lot off condition (like they do in 1998), this is like interbank line that can be drawn anytime.
I don't think those line will be use, but this line represents and provide more confidence to the market compared to any potential credit line from World Bank, IMF, or other countries credit support.

You can expect that our possition to US vis a vis China or Russia will not be what they call 'sitting on the fence' anymore.
Thus, forget about Su-35, even Airbus will have difficulty after this against Boeing in Indonesian procurement.
 
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