First, as far as I am aware, of the 16 T-50i purchased from South Korea, only 4 of them are weaponized in a configuration similar to TA-50. I can't even find credible verification on this, so it's possible none of them are. So is there something I missed when Ananda said TA-50 for counter-insurgency and Sandhi Yudha said 20 T-50i?
My bad, There's typo on my post. I should wrote TA-50 for LIFT then COIN. Yes, what your info on TA-50/T-50i is simililar with what I gather which is 16 T-50i. However I got info (even though not highly reliable) the ones that already wired in same standard as TA-50 is 8 not 4. The other 8 still in T-50 standard, however with option to be wired as TA-50.
That source told me, 'if you want to know which one is wired like TA-50 and which one is wired like T-50, just look at their camoufladge pattern'. The one that has greyish-blue camoufladge is wired with TA-50 standard, the one that have camoufladge with blue-yellow pattern of the aerobatic team still wired on T-50 standard.
Like I said, is just a talk that I heard, not highly reliable eventhough that particullar source quite close to Mindef.
Anyway, for the F-5 replacement option seems from what I gather will be work in phases in conjuction later on with Hawk 200/100 replacement. That's why, the refurbishment program for Hawk 200/100 is not as extensive as for F-16 Block15 OCU (which will be modified/refurbished as extensive as those Block 25 refurbishement program). The Hawks practically only got new parts, just to ensure their operational readiness can get up to 2020.
In sense seems TNI-AU wants to tie the replecement program for up to 3 sq, which also seems one of the reason the F-5 replecement being delayed further on. Talking for 3 sq replacment (in the end) will be more attractive on dealing with supplier anyway.
Lookin on that logic, what SAAB offered perhaps can be more attractive then LM (which so far that I heard, only offer limited % offset contract to DI for Block 52+). However do not forgot EADS close relationship with DI/IAe, which offering their package of Eurofighter with strong Di/IAe involvement on manufacturing/assembly processed.
On paper, it can be affordable by the budget since it will be strech out for at least 8-10 years. Calculation for 3 sq (around 48-54 aircraft), with contract being signed 2015 and take at least 2 years to prepared DI facility. Initial 6-8 aircraft come from supplier, thus also take 2 years which will be run pararel with preparation on DI facility and training the resources. Then the rest 40-46 will be manufactured under license on DI which will take 6 years to complete or up to 2023-2024, which by that time the Hawks is already reached their replecement time.
What I'm questioning though again, if this is affordable if by that time period Indonesia (and thus DI) also commited for KFX. Some argue, that it still make sense, since the production phase of KFX will begin on 2023-2024, at time when the underlicensed Fighter project already finished, thus the Fighters assembly facility can be switched to KFX.
DI from what I heard, more inclined with EADS (Eurofighter project), since they have more experiences with EADS and Airbus on preparing projects and helping DI facilities and training their resources. In short:
(*): On Technical issue, EADS more preferable due to their closeness with DI.
(*): Overall package, SAAB provide attractive packages.
(*): Operational wise, time to delivered and logistical issue, go with LM.
Su-35 also being talked, but many sources that I heard begin to discounted them, since Su-35 it self is not ready for delivery outside Russia for some time.
Again, all of those option will back to progress on the new administration. I do not have problem with Jokowi, but I do have problem with the Party that behind him, and particularly Megawati as the Chairman. If Jokowi can proved independent and strong President than can not be dictated by His Party and more Importantly Megawati (which without doubt is the worst and most incompetent President in this Republic history), then we can have more optimistic view this can be implemented.
If what happen is the other way around..and we will have 5 years 'black' period for Indonesia all aspects, economy, defense, and Politics. The cutting on Fuel Subsidy is the first test for Him, but can be a proven ground on how able he can handle the country.
Oooo....Well..Just my ranting..
NB:
The Budget for production facility preparation in DI, has tobe either allocated through defense budget or government capital investment (outside defense budget). Just like the example for Goverment Capital Injection to PAL for Submarine manufacturing Yard, which just being approved recently. Without that, it's just a pipe dream.
The latter (Capital Injection outside defense budget), seems more likely to take, due to Indonesia lack political will to raise defense budget to 2% of GDP. This seems from what I heard, is the way they are going to take for KFX. The USD 2 bio budget for development stages (Indonesian portion) will be injected as part of Government 'bail-out' program to DI as part of Strategic Industrial rejunavation. It will be outside Defense budget, and part of Industrial Infrastructure initiative.
Now whether Jokowi Government has Political will on this, that remain to be seen.