Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

has nothing to do with EDA/FMS/DCS and one key thing that you missed out, FMF.

Well FMF more on financing medium, however by piggy back on US batches you can take the advantage on pricing, as unit costs ussualy being calculated on US own batches. So that's what I'm pointing out

French offer similar piggyback arrangements when it suits them.

Yes but French batches is not as large as US batches. In the end economics of scale matter.

to the same extent as via FMS. No.

Do I say it will cost better that FMS ? Again from what I gather from those who participate on with the US defense negotiations, training and support package benefit is not the main attraction to FMS. Price and overall package cost benefits by piggy back on US batches is. That's what US suppliers put to.

Yes I do agree FMS can provide better packages on training and support. However pricing is the main benefits.

suspect the Rafale prices are getting affordable simply because there are volume these days.

Seems it is, as they are now getting more economics of scale on production costs.

L'Indonésie achète 42 Rafale à la France, pour 8 milliards de dollars

L'Indonésie a signé ce jeudi une commande pour 42 avions de combat Rafale de dernière génération de Dassault Aviation, pour 8 milliards de dollars, ont annoncé le groupe et la ministre des Armées, Florence Parly.

www.lindependant.fr

One of French media talk the overall deals for 42 newly build Rafale will cost USD 8.1 bio. It is less then I suspect of USD 10bio+ compare toward other previous Rafale contracts.

 

[Arji]

One of French media talk the overall deals for 42 newly build Rafale will cost USD 8.1 bio. It is less then I suspect of USD 10bio+ compare toward other previous Rafale contracts.

Some media said that it might not be the F-4 version, rather it's going to be the F-3R versions. It's still a capable aircraft, but it also might explain how it can have a cheaper price tags.

Then again, it might be a cheaper F-4 version due to economic of scale like what koxinga said.

 

[Ananda]

Then again, it might be a cheaper F-4 version due to economic of scale like what koxinga said.

The problem comparing each procurement program from each buyers, is sometimes we don't know the details packages.

However I do agree because of latest string of Rafale export success, Dasault can provide better pricing packages for next buyers. Is part on production economics of scale.

Add:
Even that with that prices and overall financing being strech toward next administrations, I'm still baffle if they (present Administration) can come out with funding for other MRCA program (F-15EX). Unless they terminate other program like AEW/ISTAR or long range SAM and some GCI radars plus some Navy project.

Well they actually can add more money to defense procurement if they delay that new capital city in Kalimantan for this term. I don't think Jokowi will do that.

 

[STURM]

Do I say it will cost better that FMS ?

First of all, did I saiy or imply you did?

You mentioned that ''sales support and training packages also can be got from direct sale''.I replied that yes but not to the extent of a FMS sale.... Something you agreed with going by this statement ''Yes I do agree FMS can provide better packages on training and support''

Under FMS the client gets certain services that would not be available via a direct commercial sale but has to pay for those services which can result in total costs being more compared to if it was a direct commercial sale. Again, pros and cons.



.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia Beli 6 Unit Jet Tempur Rafale dari Prancis

Indonesia, yang bekerjasama dengan Korea Selatan untuk mengembangkan jet tempur KF-21, dikabarkan telah sepakat untuk membeli enam unit jet tempur Rafale dari Prancis.CNBC ...

world.kbs.co.kr

On lighter side, found this KBS Indonesia edition talking about Indonesian Rafale deals. Only Korean media need to emphasize that despite this deal, Indonesia still committed to KF-21.

Well If I'm in ROK/KAI side of KF-21 program, I will still be unsure on Indonesian commitment if Indonesia hasn't shown the money. This deal with Frenchie shown Indonesia willing to provide money trail even for more expensive defense program, if there's enough Political support from within. So where's the money trail to KF-21?

Talk is cheap, shown the money please.

 

[Meriv90]

Could I ask as a complete stranger to the matter why the need of the Rafale? The K-21 prototype is almost ready to fly from what I understood, meanwhile with all the order the french had recently can they process Indonesia one in time or try to delay it as long as possible to keep the production longer?

 

[Arji]

Could I ask as a complete stranger to the matter why the need of the Rafale? The K-21 prototype is almost ready to fly from what I understood, meanwhile with all the order the french had recently can they process Indonesia one in time or try to delay it as long as possible to keep the production longer?

Between prototype and production is still a sizeable period. In the mean time, TNI AU needs new aircraft to fill the gap as well as to replace the already retired F-5 fighters, hence they're buying the Rafale.

Btw, there's news that the US Foreign Office has approved sales of F-15EX, though I can't find any international news for it.

This is the article claiming it, though it's in Indonesian (Title Translation: US Foreign Office? (Deplu) approves of F-15EX sales to Indonesia!)

It cites its own source, so might be dubious. It claims the official DSCA announcement will be made next week at the latest.

 

[Ananda]

Could I ask as a complete stranger to the matter why the need of the Rafale?

Arji explenation more in line with official stance, TNI-AU need replacement on F-5. However mine bit more cynical as I have put in this thread. Cut ot short, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo seems manage to convince his one time political rival Indonesian President Jokowi, that working with Frenchie in defense can provide more Political Capital gain.

Prabowo need political capital for next election, Jokowi on his last term but he need to left good legacy in all sectors (which can benefit his political faction). Defense is one big sector that can provide that political capital image.

So whoever can help Indonesia to provide what Jokowi put 'defense' investment sooner, is the one this administration going to choose as partner. Seems French getting the first choices.

KF-21 is a project that a legacy from previous administration. Whether they are going to continue with the project is still 50:50. For me money talk and talk is cheap. As long as Indonesia has not paid up for it's due on KFX/KF-21 project, then it is not definite yet that Indonesia will commit (no matter all the diplomatic talks). Even if this administration in the end paid the dues, it is still matter of further Investment needed to build production facility for KF-21 in DI/IAe.

In the mean time, Rafale is a proven product and Frenchie wants to provide involvement for Indonesian defense Industry to support Rafale. All within this administration term. That's why today signing that both Parly and Prabowo witness not only in Rafale but also on other industrial cooperation in defense sectors.

That's for this administration provide more tangible political image, thus political capital. Rather then some project like KF-21 that the result will not be shown during this administration term.

Politics that drive Indonesian defense planing.

 

[Meriv90]

Got it, then it is like the Greeks and Egypt. An undoubtedly good fighter, but political, geopolitical reasons also play a game.

Chapeau to the French, I always admired the ability of the DGA for their export.

 

[STURM]

It cites its own source, so might be dubious. It claims the official DSCA announcement will be made next week at the latest.

Well it remains to be seen if F-15s will be ordered but I have no idea why the politicians would want to.place the TNI-AU in a position where it has to support F-16s, F-15s, Rafales and Su-27s/30s. It would be a training/logistical nightmare, one which is very unnecessarily expensive/ resource intensive.

 

[Arji]

Well it remains to be seen if F-15s will be ordered but I have no idea why the politicians would want to.place the TNI-AU in a position where it has to support F-16s, F-15s, Rafales and Su-27s/30s. It would be a training/logistical nightmare, one which is very unnecessarily expensive/ resource intensive.

I mean, if they have their own agenda, I doubt the politician care what the people on the field want. The good news is though, there might not be enough budget allocation to buy the F-15EX, so I probably just want to watch where this goes first.

the DSCA announcement is out. Why in the hell did they ask for 36 aircraft? The whole thing is 13.9 Bil USD. There is no way we're buying this.

Indonesia – F-15ID Aircraft | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

Also they're willing to give us this?

forty-five (45) AN/ALQ-250 Eagle Passive Active Warning Survivability Systems (EPAWSS) (36 installed, 9 spares)

 

[koxinga]

the DSCA announcement is out. Why in the hell did they ask for 36 aircraft? The whole thing is 13.9 Bil USD. There is no way we're buying this.

The number (36) suggest that this was requested in parallel with the Rafale deal. A DSCA announcement is nothing more than indicating there are no objections on the political side, as per required by US law. They will indicate the maximum possible value of the deal, inclusive of every single thing for ILS, munitions, but the actual signed contract can be lower.

 

[Ananda]

DSCA announcement is out. Why in the hell did they ask for 36 aircraft? The whole thing is 13.9 Bil USD. There is no way we're buying this.

USD 8.1 bio + USD 13.9 bio, thus total USD 22 bio. Strech the financing project toward end of this decade. Thus something must give.

Politically we are still potentially going to find some opposition in the Capitol Hill and even Senayan. Internally there's going some opposition that saying this is too much under COVID situation (eventough it's going to be strech for at least end of this decade). However Politics is politics.

36 F-15id with configuration similar with latest version of F-15EX. This is US way after the lobby done by Prabowo's hired team, shown; We are not going to give you F-35, but we are giving you second best thing for export.

By end of this decade Hawk 200/100 and I do believe Flankers will be retired. Indonesia already talk to US, you don't want us to have Flankers, then give us F-15. So when F-15 comes, Flankers is gone. They are having minimal upgrade anyway so far.

TNI-AU envision 10 operational Fighters sq from current 7 sq. This orders practically replacing 2 sq of Hawk, 1 sq of Flankers and 1 sq of defunct F-5. Those Rafale and F-15 if all the orders come to fruition, represent 5-6 sq already. In paper 3 Sq of Rafale plus 2-3 sq of F-15 plus existing two F-16, one Super Tucano and one TA-50 already reach 9-10 operational Fighters sq that TNI-AU plan to have.

How we are going to afford this ? Like I said in beginning and previous posts, 'something must give'. Even this program strech into next administration. Like I said before, I'm still buffle on how this administration can find ways to finance this, unless something must give. Some other big project must give away.

Practically just like SBY done in his last term, the next administration (Jokowi's first term) will have to pay most of the order.

State Department approves $13B F-15EX sale to Indonesia, on heels of Rafale deal - Breaking Defense

Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto had previously indicated that Indonesia was interested in buying both Rafales and the F-15EX, as part of a major defense spending increase planned for the coming decades.

breakingdefense.com

Like I said, it will be streching at least to end of this decade.

 

[ADMk2]

Not to nitpick, but if both of these Rafale / F-15ID acquisitions go ahead, then the TNI-AU will be very ‘fighter heavy’ and will have spent an absolute fortune on fighter purchases, by anyone’s standards…

BUT, crucially it seems to me, the TNI-AU will still be deficient in force multiplier capabilities, specifically in Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C), air to air refuelling capabilities, an integrated air defence command and control system and the related networking capabilities to tie it all together.

I do also wonder about the absence of news on weapons stocks with which to arm these aircraft, though of course they could easily be announced down the track, as they get closer to actually arriving.

I would hope for their sustainment budget now, if these go ahead, that the TNI-AU manages to consolidate on these two aircraft, perhaps with T/A-50 for training / light combat roles.

 

[Arji]

Not to nitpick, but if both of these Rafale / F-15ID acquisitions go ahead, then the TNI-AU will be very ‘fighter heavy’ and will have spent an absolute fortune on fighter purchases, by anyone’s standards…

I suspect they'll use F-15 EX as more of a strike aircraft as oppose to the air superiority fighter, just as how TNI-AU is using the Sukhoi squadron currently. Like Ananda said, I hope they'll retire Sukhoi entirely and just replace them with F-15EX. I think it's not a problem if they are used in that role.

 

[Ananda]

would hope for their sustainment budget now, if these go ahead, that the TNI-AU manages to consolidate on these two aircraft, perhaps with T/A-50 for training / light combat roles.

That's always my worries. Those two are expensive fighters and operating them will be challenging to their operational budget. That's one of the reasons why TNI-AU preference before is F-16V. However Politics that drive Indonesian defense planning

the TNI-AU will still be deficient in force multiplier capabilities, specifically in Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C), air to air refuelling capabilities, an integrated air defence command and control system and the related networking capabilities to tie it all togethe

Yes, TNI-AU planners knows it well. Those are the area that they already put as priority. However with Politics want to go with Rafale and F-15EX, then I do worries if those area can be obtained.

That's why I said something must give, and I don't know what area going to be push down.

This's still not talking on Indonesian involvement with Korean KF-21, which need more Investment not only in procurement but also Investment in manufacturing and Industrial facilities.

Can Indonesia support all of that ? I do have doubt on the capacity to do all of that, even with streching toward end of decades. Unless something has to give.

At its now, the program that already more or less have Political support is with French. I do have bit suspicion why US shown this DSCA as soon as Frenchie make a deal on Rafale.

Add:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491862553865117696

Some tweet that talk about the division of projected cost of USD 13.9 bio. USD 9.5 bio for the planes (I believe including sustainment) and USD 4.4 bio I believe for armaments and supporting equipment packages. If this including life time sustainment, then actually still making sense.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

USD 8.1 bio + USD 13.9 bio, thus total USD 22 bio. Strech the financing project toward end of this decade.

The american F-15ID (downgraded EX?) package is even morr expensive than the French one.....for less aircrafts, just 36.
It will be foolish to add the F-15 to the fleet, $22M is more than the whole defence budget planning of $20M, if approved. Im afraid that we have to pay our debts well after 2035 if they also want to order the F-15.
There will be nothing left over for the A330 MRTT, CN235, ground radars, AEW aircrafts, A400M...let alone the KF-X. And that also means all acquisition programs for army and navy have to be cancelled.

I do have bit suspicion why US shown this DSCA as soon as Frenchie make a deal on Rafale.

Yes it is suspicious, it was released later on the same day, that can't be a 'coincidence '.

Indonesia – F-15ID Aircraft | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

If we have to buy american for political reasons, then its better to add more F-16s, C-130J-30, AH-64E, Bell 412EPI, AIM-120C-7 or anything else we need more of.

 

[the road runner]

Rafale have an availability rate around the 50% Mark ...Not to good if you ask me
While the F-15EX/ID have a 20,000 hour air frame life span..That's a long time to have an air frame ,plus availability rates sit over 70% for older type F-15C/D/E so i assume the F-15EX/ID would be above that

Air Force fighters' mission capable rates rise in 2020 - Air Force Magazine

A F-15 heavy fighter and a F-16 light fighter would be a great combination
Quiet a few western nations operate this exact mix....including your neighbors Singapore

Realistically as AD has pointed out ...Indonesia should consolidate on a Heavy/light mix of 2 fighters.

 

[Ananda]

22M is more than the whole defence budget planning of $20M, if approved.

The USD 20+ bio is actually the ceiling for foreign procurement financing line on this term. So if USD 22 bio for those two fighters being strech by at least end of this decade, the financing being used for that two fighters program for the rest of this term (2022-24), my rough calculation will be around USD 4 bio.

This's based on deliveries of the planes that can also strech toward end of this decades. The problem is how long the financing tenure they're getting on the financing line.

I remember during my Uni days, one of my lecturer that also work with MoF budget office, talk about the financing line for F-16A/B OCU (Peace Bimasena 1) from US Exim was similar toward Medium Term Notes (thus around 5-6 years). If for those Rafale and F-15 they got longer rolling financing for 10 years tenure, it's still in average annual USD +/- 2.3 bio installment to pay them.

The Indonesian forums and bloggers talk about Soft Financing scheme that MinDef and finance people negotiate with financing providers. Soft Financing mostly related toward pricing/interest. However also important is how far the tenures can be got.

That's why I'm worried with other program and speculate some other program can be push down, as the amount of annual installment to pay back the financing line can absorb most of procurement part of annual defense budget (which where the installment will be paid).

This with assumption that Indonesian defense budget being kept around 0.8%-1.0% of GDP as being historically shown for last three decades. So if they want to operate more advance items on Fighters, Frigates, etc then there has to be Political commitment to raise defense budget toward 1.5%-2.0%.

This is why I said there's going to be not only potential Political challenge in Capitol Hill (there are those in there that dislike Indonesia) but also in Senayan, if we proceed with F-15EX packages in the amount of DCSA offer.

then its better to add more F-16s, C-130J-30, AH-64E, Bell 412EPI, AIM-120C-7 or anything else we need more

Indonesia should consolidate on a Heavy/light mix of 2 fighters.

TNI-AU as I have mentioned before until 2020 planning for F-16V. That's why realistically I also talk combo of F-15EX and F-16V or Rafale and F-16V. However Political choices in Indonesia now wants F-15EX and Rafale.

That's why I always talk, if the Political pressure wants that, they better find a way to continue increase TNI-AU operational budget in order to operate them.

Again this's Political choices not users choices. If this's users choices, TNI-AU did not put F-16V in their plan up until less then two years ago.

 

[ADMk2]

I suspect they'll use F-15 EX as more of a strike aircraft as oppose to the air superiority fighter, just as how TNI-AU is using the Sukhoi squadron currently. Like Ananda said, I hope they'll retire Sukhoi entirely and just replace them with F-15EX. I think it's not a problem if they are used in that role.

I was referring to the balance of the overall force. It will be fighter heavy compared to the other elements of a force structure you require to develop a truly integrated modern force.