Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
I hope you are right, but i am afraid Ngatimozart's view is closer to reality.They are useful to show "present," it is what actually happening in the contested North Natuna sea. Malaysia, our main adversary due to Ambalat block, has already backed off and reduced their defense budget significantly compared to 2012 level. Their 6 new warship underconstruction are also still in 20 percent completion rate despite it has been 6 years since the construction started. We still have enough time. As for China, no need to be worried if we are still in neutral position. They know Indonesia is likely going to be something in the future, they rather want to have good relation with us.
China view
The current world structure was basically built with the US as its center. I suppose, in the future world, there might not be any country that can build the world with itself as the core. The world won't be polarized but multipolar: China is growing; Russia remains a strong power; Germany and India are rising; and regional big powers like Indonesia are also getting a bigger role on the international stage.
Lessons for China from US COVID-19 crisis - Global Times
www.globaltimes.cn
US view
U.S.-INDONESIA RELATIONS
Indonesia is a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific Region and U.S.-Indonesia relations have taken on increasing importance. Indonesia is the world’s third largest democracy, largest Muslim-majority country, the seventh-largest economy by purchasing power, and a leader in ASEAN. It possesses the world’s greatest marine biodiversity and its second greatest terrestrial biodiversity. Indonesia also borders the South China Sea, which has the world’s busiest sea lanes — over $5 trillion in cargo and as much as 50 percent of the world’s oil tankers pass through the South China Sea every year.
U.S. Relations With Indonesia - United States Department of State
More information about Indonesia is available on the Indonesia country page and from other Department of State publications and other sources listed at the end of this fact sheet. U.S.-INDONESIA RELATIONS Indonesia is a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific Region, and U.S.-Indonesia relations have...www.state.gov
As I said, no need to be rush, focus on economy, industrialization, defense industry, and research and development first. If the projection is right which is based on a conservative 5.4 % economic growth, so we would possibly have 40 billion USD defense budget (1 % of GDP) starting at 2035 inshaAllah.
I dont want Indonesia to be another Saudi Arabia with such large budget being used mostly for imported weapon from the west, but rather we should follow China path with almost total self sufficiency, or at least at South Korea/Turkey level with good home grown defense industry. We have 15 years to go before 2035, so I hope our planner think with great vision and believe with our own people capability.
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Macroeconomic forecasting - World Economic League Table | CEBR
Since its publication, CEBR’s World Economic League Table has established itself as the go to measure of the comparative economic success of different countriescebr.com
We lost Ligitan and Sipadan not only because of the social, political and economical crisis, but also because we were military at our weakest in decades. We were too passive and underestimated our opponent. In that period not all of our neighbours respected our borders.
But now we are talking about Communist China, a country hungry to replace the US in world-domination, and the inventors of the Nine Dash Line. Yes, Indonesia is an important place for china to dump their cheap stuff, but that doesnt mean they are our friends. Only china-fanboys will deny what happen in Laut Natuna Utara in December 2019 - Januari 2020, because that period was the hardest and most obvious proof that our Coast Guard and navy lack the deterrence needed.
You can not solve that with building tollroads, high speed trains or moving the capital to another island. Local built LSTs, tankers and small patrolboats armed with machineguns are maybe necessary in TNI-AL's fleet, but they need much more.
All other things i want to say are already posted by Ananda and Ngatimozart, and like they already say, we really need to rush.
PS: PAL just started to post photos of the launch of the first of two ordered hospitalships. Sadly these photos are only photos from the decoration and the table used during this ceremony. Also all other posts shared by PAL today are useless crap about Covid-19.
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