Indonesia: 'green water navy'

[Sandhi Yudha]

Il Giappone vuole vendere le fregate all'Indonesia, spunta anche l'offerta italiana

Tra le priorità del Governo di Tokyo c’è l’export di equipaggiamento militare con particolare attenzione per l’area di influenza giapponese. Il Giappone starebbe infatti spingendo la vendita di navi militari verso l’Indonesia in modo da alimentare la visione di un “indo-pacifico libero”. Le...

www.aresdifesa.it

Personally in my opinion if MinDef, TNI-AL and PAL still going with OMT Iver Based for Frigate, for secondary layer Fincantieri PPA seems quite more realistic toward TNI-AL operational condition.

PT. PAL already have long potential discussion with Fincantieri from the 90's from potential using Lupo design for Light Frigate, Nationale Corvettes program (both being cut by Damen) and now Fincantieri submitting their proposal again.

Thanks for sharing the article.
30FFM, FREMM and PPA are all CODAG, so this give the Iver Huitfeldt design a good chance.
But a downgraded PPA Light - (with CODAD and in FFBNW configuration) is of course cheaper.

Ill continue later...

Edit: ive found some more budget overview/reports. (Whats the meaning of RUP btw?)

I think this will be for a NBell-412EPI with M134 Miniguns for Disnerbal.

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3275567432551577

This is for an unknown type dieselsub.

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3274988139276173

For more BMP-3Fs...

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3275919182516402

Remarkable... MICAs for the Nakhoda Ragam/Bung Tomo Class. Does this mean the VLS is already modified from Sea Wolf to MICA-capable?

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3275966955844958

A 244 S Mod 3 torpedoes. For SIGMA 9113, 10514 or Bung Tomos, or for all three of these classes...

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3276057975835856

Upgrade of the Bung Tomo class to make the FCS capable from MM40 Block II to Block III.
Lembaga Kajian Pertahanan Strategis

More MICAs and MM40 Block IIIs.
Lembaga Kajian Pertahanan Strategis
And this is for an unknown frigate class...

Facebook

www.facebook.com

 

[swerve]

With the booster, VL Sea Wolf is almost the same length as Mica, & it's fatter. It should be fairly easy to adapt the VLS.

 

[Ananda]

Chinese Submarine Drone Discovered Near Gateway To Indian Ocean - Naval News

Indonesian fishermen found an underwater drone on December 20th. Based on photographs we can say with some confidence that the drone is closely related to the Chinese Sea Wing family. The find was reported in local media (in Indonesian). It was discovered near Selayar Island in the South...

www.navalnews.com

Naval News put it today edition, however it's been a news in Indonesia media couple days ago. This is not first time Indonesian Fisherman found this Chinese underwater drone. However before it's usually in Natuna's and Riau Islands area.

However this's first time that I know off, Indonesian Fisherman found this device on the Makasar Strait area. Unlike Malacca, Sunday or Bali straits that many analysts put as Indonesian Choke Points, Makasar Strait actually more suitable for Submarine routes.

The other three straits are relatively shallow, as they're actually part of Asian Continental land mass that flooded after the last Ice Age. Makasar Strait on the other hand is always part of deep sea even during last Ice age.

Thus for me it's clear China try to study and map Makasar under water flows and topography. Using Makasar as gate way through Lombok straits, in theory Chinese Submarine can found ways to Indian Ocean that are relative harder to detect, compared to using Malacca, Sunday or Bali Straits. Using that routes it's also easier for Chinese submarine to get into area of Southern Pacific, or Australian and NZ waters.

For Indonesian Navy, that underwater routes also harder to control. Even if TNI-AL already reach their plan of 8 or 12 Submarines, controlling those underwater path from Makasar Strait to Lombok Straits is relatively harder than The other three straits.

TNI-AL have plan to build under water sensors. Even when they got the budget for that, it will be prioritize for Natuna and Riau Islands waters. It's closer to SCS, and the water relative shallow. Thus it's theoretically easier to build underwater sensors relative to technical and budget challenge.

So it's left for Submarine to watch Central and Eastern under water routes, as it's deep and harder to put sensors on that.
Thus I can see the attractiveness of this under water routes, for Chinese naval planners that want to find a better way for their submarine toward Indies and Southern Pacific.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Lik

Chinese Submarine Drone Discovered Near Gateway To Indian Ocean - Naval News

Indonesian fishermen found an underwater drone on December 20th. Based on photographs we can say with some confidence that the drone is closely related to the Chinese Sea Wing family. The find was reported in local media (in Indonesian). It was discovered near Selayar Island in the South...

www.navalnews.com

Naval News put it today edition, however it's been a news in Indonesia media couple days ago. This is not first time Indonesian Fisherman found this Chinese underwater drone. However before it's usually in Natuna's and Riau Islands area.

However this's first time that I know off, Indonesian Fisherman found this device on the Makasar Strait area. Unlike Malacca, Sunday or Bali straits that many analysts put as Indonesian Choke Points, Makasar Strait actually more suitable for Submarine routes.

The other three straits are relatively shallow, as they're actually part of Asian Continental land mass that flooded after the last Ice Age. Makasar Strait on the other hand is always part of deep sea even during last Ice age.

Thus for me it's clear China try to study and map Makasar under water flows and topography. Using Makasar as gate way through Lombok straits, in theory Chinese Submarine can found ways to Indian Ocean that are relative harder to detect, compared to using Malacca, Sunday or Bali Straits. Using that routes it's also easier for Chinese submarine to get into area of Southern Pacific, or Australian and NZ waters.

For Indonesian Navy, that underwater routes also harder to control. Even if TNI-AL already reach their plan of 8 or 12 Submarines, controlling those underwater path from Makasar Strait to Lombok Straits is relatively harder than The other three straits.

TNI-AL have plan to build under water sensors. Even when they got the budget for that, it will be prioritize for Natuna and Riau Islands waters. It's closer to SCS, and the water relative shallow. Thus it's theoretically easier to build underwater sensors relative to technical and budget challenge.

So it's left for Submarine to watch Central and Eastern under water routes, as it's deep and harder to put sensors on that.
Thus I can see the attractiveness of this under water routes, for Chinese naval planners that want to find a better way for their submarine toward Indies and Southern Pacific.

Like i already said in post #250 of the Indo-Paciic Strategy thread this morning..
Its for sure that this has nothing to do with protecting chinese waters or scientific research, so in my opinion china could only have bad intentions, looking to the location.

The chinese navy is not only like you said gathering information of Indonesia's passage ways, but also collect information about all our territorial waters. Pulau Selayar was close to Sulawesi Tenggara, right?

 

[Ananda]

The chinese navy is not only like you said gathering information of Indonesia's passage ways, but also collect information about all our territorial waters

It's bound to happen, US I'm sure already done it, back in Soeharto era there was espionage scandal with USSR diplomats (most likely unofficial KGB) with Indonesian officer on getting under water map of Indonesian water.

Indonesian water after all provide some of the most effective routes to get from Pacific to Indies and vice versa. Getting surface water flow, wind condition is much easier. There's many public sites open on that, after all it's being used for Commercial routes. However under water current and topography are different stories.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A 57 mm or 76 mm main gun fits easily on a 110 meter long ship, but at least a 30 mm gun (Oto Melara Marlin or Aselsan Smash) is better than the current armament of assault rifles and knives.

Prabowo Izinkan Bakamla Gunakan Senjata Kaliber 12,7-30 mm

Bakamla kini sudah bisa mempersenjatai kapalnya dengan senapan kaliber 12,7 hingga 30 mm dalam mengamankan perairan RI.

m.cnnindonesia.com

 

[Ananda]

57 mm or 76 mm main gun fits easily on a 110 meter long ship, but at least a 30 mm gun (Oto Melara Marlin or Aselsan Smash) is better than the current armament of assault rifles and knives.

It's also more suitable Politically, as BAKAMLA is coast guard fleet. Thus it's more on constabulary duties. My hope is for all Patrol duties, especially the coast and littoral will be delegated from Navy to Coast Guard.

Thus those small Navy KAL patrol boats in my opinion should be delegated to Coast Guard. Navy only handle combatant of 60-70m above. Let's see how Political will from MinDef and Administration to regulate that.

Seems one of the concession on doing that so far being done, are to put Navy Officers in the senior position of Bakamla. Perhaps this's also to handle Manning problems, if some of current Navy function being move to Bakamla.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Some more articles about that chinese thing...

TNI AL Buka Suara soal Dugaan Seaglider Mata-mata China

TNI AL meminta semua pihak bersabar menunggu hasil penelitian Pusat Hidrografi dan Oseanografi (Pushidrosal) TNI AL terkait seaglider di Selayar tersebut.

m.cnnindonesia.com

TNI AL: Alutsista Kami Tak Mampu Kover Seluruh Laut Indonesia

TNI AL mengakui alutsista miliknya tak mampu mendeteksi seaglider maupun peralatan lain di bawah laut Indonesia secara keseluruhan.

m.cnnindonesia.com

There is also a pressconference video of more than 30 minutes on youtube...but that one is a little bit boring.

 

[Ananda]

From PT. PAL FB. The FB state that tomorrow at 7th, they will launch their first dedicated Hospital Ships based from Makasar class LPD. Seems the picture below is the one. Before TNI-AL already have two Hospital Ships based on Makasar class LPD. One KRI Dr Soeharso is dedicated one but build by Daesun in ROK. The second one KRI Semarang consider as temporary Hospital Ship.

Seems the difference between this dedicated ones, and the temporary one (picture above), more on facilities being prepared.

 

[Ananda]

There is also a pressconference video of more than 30 minutes on youtube...but that one is a little bit boring.

The video talking more on what already being known. Those underwater drones (sea gliders) are mostly being used to gain data on under water salinity, current, temperature and depth. Thus they're using for information on building safe routes for Submarine.

TNI-AL has not using similar drones, but mostly using their oceanographic survey ships for mapping underwater condition. Makasar Strait eventough not as busy as Malaka Strait, still has substantial commercial routes. Thus some of the 'commercial' vessels that move there, seems become mother ship for those drones.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

From PT. PAL FB. The FB state that tomorrow at 7th, they will launch their first dedicated Hospital Ships based from Makasar class LPD. Seems the picture below is the one. Before TNI-AL already have two Hospital Ships based on Makasar class LPD. One KRI Dr Soeharso is dedicated one but build by Daesun in ROK. The second one KRI Semarang consider as temporary Hospital Ship.

Seems the difference between this dedicated ones, and the temporary one (picture above), more on facilities being prepared.

Yes, from the outside there is not much difference. The new one has maybe more facilities for additional boats and i.s more stealthy.
I wonder about the internal differences between the
KRI Soeharso 990 (which was a normal LPD)
KRI Semarang 594 (temporary hospital ship)
KRI ????????? 595/991 (the first purpose built hospitalship)

The remarkable thing is that the length of the ships is different with almost every batch.
- 122 m : KRI Soeharso 990 (KRI Tanjung Dalpele 972), KRI Makassar 590, KRI Surabaya 591
- 125 m : KRI Banjarmasin 592, KRI Banda Aceh 593
- 123 m : BRP Tarlac LD-601 and BRP Davao del Sur LD-602
- 124 m : KRI Semarang 594 and probably also the new ship

I also wonder if they want to retrofit better weaponsystems and a CMS on the KRI Semarang if they want to convert it to a normal LPD.

Edit...
According to PT PAL's Facebook page:
"Yaps betul, Satu dari dua kapal Bantu Rumah Sakit (BRS) pesanan TNI AL akan segera launching pada besok hari 7 Januari 2021. Kapal BRS TNI AL ini memiliki panjang 124 meter, lebar 21,8 meter dan mampu mengakomodasi pasukan, kru dan pasien sebanyak 651 orang. Kapal tersebut juga mampu melaju dengan kecepatan maksimal 18 knot serta endurance 30 hari. Kapal BRS ini juga mampu untuk menampung 2 unit helikopter di dek dan 2 unit ambulance boat. .."

So yes, also this one will be 124 m long.

 

[tonnyc]

Edit...
According to PT PAL's Facebook page:
"Yaps betul, Satu dari dua kapal Bantu Rumah Sakit (BRS) pesanan TNI AL akan segera launching pada besok hari 7 Januari 2021. Kapal BRS TNI AL ini memiliki panjang 124 meter, lebar 21,8 meter dan mampu mengakomodasi pasukan, kru dan pasien sebanyak 651 orang. Kapal tersebut juga mampu melaju dengan kecepatan maksimal 18 knot serta endurance 30 hari. Kapal BRS ini juga mampu untuk menampung 2 unit helikopter di dek dan 2 unit ambulance boat. .."

Notice the slight improvement in speed from 16 knot to 18 knot. They changed the engines from MTU to Caterpillar but I don't know the model number nor it's exact specs.

Nothing to do with the length difference though. KRI Semarang with the same 124 m length has the old 16 knot top speed.

 

[swerve]

The two Peruvian Makassar LPDs (BAP Pisco & BAP Paita) are both 122 metres.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1337163180938653696

How snippy this guy has become..or desperate on pushing Euro interest (that clearly he's represents). Doesn't he knows MHI in various media and video already put that 30FFM offer to export market with abilities to be integrated with different systems and weapons modules depend on the Customer requirements ?

Perhaps his FREEM offer is the fantasy one..oh how desperate he becomes. It just become hilarious to see

Lets make Ananda upset this early morning....
"Most likely lenders which will finance Indonesian armament acquisition until 2024 dominated by European financial institution. And the money will mostly goes to European defense industries. It means European lenders offer the best term to Indonesia, including interest rate."

:-D

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Something else...

KRI Klewang 625 (2)

Sumber Foto : Wikipedia Bagian 2 Pembuatan Kapal Proses pembuatan kapal ini menghabiskan dana sekitar seratus empat belas miliar yang diambil dari anggaran belanja modal devisa tahun anggaran 2009. Kapal ini menapaki sejarah baru industri kapal perang di Indonesia, karena untuk pertama...

www.kkip.go.id

Looking to the way the article is written, i have my doubts about the accuracy of the information given.

Yes, the founder and owner of PT Lundin/North Sea Boats has stated earlier in 2020 that in september "full production" of the Klewang 2 will start, but there is no where any more convincing information or photos released on internet. Not on social media channels of John Lundin or PT Lundin/NSB or the official website.

So ill be not surprised if the project is on hold.

 

[Ahmad]

Lets make Ananda upset this early morning....
"Most likely lenders which will finance Indonesian armament acquisition until 2024 dominated by European financial institution. And the money will mostly goes to European defense industries. It means European lenders offer the best term to Indonesia, including interest rate."

:-D

You even read his tweet earlier than me.....

If I try to predict what will happen, our government is likely inline with my suggestion not to take those 20 billion foreign loan completely, but be selective on it and only get the one that can contribute to our defense industry advancement and economic growth. Loan taken to buy imported equipment/weapon without much contribution to our defense industry is only for essential and very pressing needs with limited numbers like AMRAMM/NASAM and replacement of F5 squadron. Hawk will undergo refurbishment instead of retiring them all and buying F16 V as some likely to suggest.

So I predict (and hope) much of the loan will only be used to buy 2 Iver frigate plus the armament, other loan will likely the one from Korea to build Changbogo submarine. For Airforce, it is either Su 35 (already sign the contract and probably get assurance from Biden to get waiver from CATSA like what India or Algeria gets) or getting loan to buy second hand Eurofighter (cheap, fast delivery, stop gap measure, and probably use similar missile with KFX/IFX planes). For new fighters, the number will likely only for 1 squadron since we have already KFX/IFX program going on and so far alhamduliLLAH on track with the first prototype is already near completion stage.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

You even read his tweet earlier than me.....

If I try to predict what will happen, our government is likely inline with my suggestion not to take those 20 billion foreign loan completely, but be selective on it and only get the one that can contribute to our defense industry advancement and economic growth. Loan taken to buy imported equipment/weapon without much contribution to our defense industry is only for essential and very pressing needs with limited numbers like AMRAMM/NASAM and replacement of F5 squadron. Hawk will undergo refurbishment instead of retiring them all and buying F16 V as some likely to suggest.

So I predict (and hope) much of the loan will only be used to buy 2 Iver frigate plus the armament, other loan will likely the one from Korea to build Changbogo submarine. For Airforce, it is either Su 35 (already sign the contract and probably get assurance from Biden to get waiver from CATSA like what India or Algeria gets) or getting loan to buy second hand Eurofighter (cheap, fast delivery, stop gap measure, and probably use similar missile with KFX/IFX planes). For new fighters, the number will likely only for 1 squadron since we have already KFX/IFX program going on and so far alhamduliLLAH on track with the first prototype is already near completion stage.

This morning in hear a voice whispering that our Oracle has shared something again to us... :-D

At this moment its actually totally unpredictable what will happen, IF something will happen.

The only bright lights on the end of this dark tunnel are the two KCR-60 and the two hospital ships. But even then, if these KCR-60s stay in a FFBNW-configuration, they will be not very usefull for guarding our EEZ.

 

[Ahmad]

This morning in hear a voice whispering that our Oracle has shared something again to us... :-D

At this moment its actually totally unpredictable what will happen, IF something will happen.

The only bright lights on the end of this dark tunnel are the two KCR-60 and the two hospital ships. But even then, if these KCR-60s stay in a FFBNW-configuration, they will be not very usefull for guarding our EEZ.

They are useful to show "present," it is what actually happening in the contested North Natuna sea. Malaysia, our main adversary due to Ambalat block, has already backed off and reduced their defense budget significantly compared to 2012 level. Their 6 new warship underconstruction are also still in 20 percent completion rate despite it has been 6 years since the construction started. We still have enough time. As for China, no need to be worried if we are still in neutral position. They know Indonesia is likely going to be something in the future, they rather want to have good relation with us.


China view

The current world structure was basically built with the US as its center. I suppose, in the future world, there might not be any country that can build the world with itself as the core. The world won't be polarized but multipolar: China is growing; Russia remains a strong power; Germany and India are rising; and regional big powers like Indonesia are also getting a bigger role on the international stage.

Lessons for China from US COVID-19 crisis - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

US view

U.S.-INDONESIA RELATIONS


Indonesia is a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific Region and U.S.-Indonesia relations have taken on increasing importance. Indonesia is the world’s third largest democracy, largest Muslim-majority country, the seventh-largest economy by purchasing power, and a leader in ASEAN. It possesses the world’s greatest marine biodiversity and its second greatest terrestrial biodiversity. Indonesia also borders the South China Sea, which has the world’s busiest sea lanes — over $5 trillion in cargo and as much as 50 percent of the world’s oil tankers pass through the South China Sea every year.

U.S. Relations With Indonesia - United States Department of State

More information about Indonesia is available on the Indonesia country page and from other Department of State publications and other sources listed at the end of this fact sheet. U.S.-INDONESIA RELATIONS Indonesia is a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific Region, and U.S.-Indonesia relations have...

www.state.gov

As I said, no need to be rush, focus on economy, industrialization, defense industry, and research and development first. If the projection is right which is based on a conservative 5.4 % economic growth, so we would possibly have 40 billion USD defense budget (1 % of GDP) starting at 2035 inshaAllah.

I dont want Indonesia to be another Saudi Arabia with such large budget being used mostly for imported weapon from the west, but rather we should follow China path with almost total self sufficiency, or at least at South Korea/Turkey level with good home grown defense industry. We have 15 years to go before 2035, so I hope our planner think with great vision and believe with our own people capability.

Macroeconomic forecasting - World Economic League Table | CEBR

Since its publication, CEBR’s World Economic League Table has established itself as the go to measure of the comparative economic success of different countries

cebr.com

 

[Ananda]

Most likely lenders which will finance Indonesian armament acquisition until 2024 dominated by European financial institution. And the money will mostly goes to European defense industries.

It could, but remember US and Will Likely Japan will not used Commercial Financial Institution as European do. US will likely use US Exim Bank and Japan use also Government Institution financing. Those are will likely be calculated on different scope. However we know this Guy is in Euro Defence Suppliers pay roll. So off course he will say that. It's probably can be that what happen, considering many talks already with Euro Defense Contractors, however coming from him?

For new fighters, the number will likely only for 1 squadron since we have already KFX/IFX program going on and so far alhamduliLLAH on track with the first prototype is already near completion stage.

That's your hope right? After all even many in Korea are not optimistic with Indonesia on going commitment to the project. Hope you are not going to be depressed, if this administration choose to license build other fighters, rather than license build IFX. At this moment anything can happen.

As for China, no need to be worried if we are still in neutral position. They know Indonesia is likely going to be something in the future, they rather want to have good relation with us.

I see your other id in other forums always talk about that, and other Indonesian forumers also remind you that's not what China so far shown their attitude. Again it's your opinion, you're entitled to do that. However in International Forum you have to back it up your opinion.
How you're so sure China in Neutral position on the disputed area, with the behavior they are showing so far to their neighbors ? Well so far luckily Indonesian MinDef doesn't have your kind of thinking. Do you understand the essence of Defense Diplomacy that Prabowo's have in mind? Means you continue build interaction with China (as example) but also using other way around to build up your Defense.
Unfortunately China under Xi seems to think their Investment strategy under Belt and Road policy will make every one follow their rules. So everyone also need to prepare their Defense.

or at least at South Korea/Turkey level with good home ground defense industry.

How do you think South Korea and Turkey manage to do that ? They do it by learning curve as sub contractor and license manufacturer of Western Defense assets. They involved with supply chain from other manufacturer, while at same time they developed their learning curve. How they're able to do that ? By buying Western Defense assets first and improving their learning curve second. Thus you can't jump learning curve without having foreign more mature Partner.

Indonesian Defense Industry at most still in the relative stage of 80's South Korea or 90's Turkey at most. Some perhaps in the relative 70's of their condition. You can't get the learning curve without license or sub contractor manufacturing stages before. There's no cutting stage. You have to Invest not just in RnD, but also working with mature manufacturer. And that's can happen if you buy their products first.

 

[ngatimozart]

They are useful to show "present," it is what actually happening in the contested North Natuna sea. Malaysia, our main adversary due to Ambalat block, has already backed off and reduced their defense budget significantly compared to 2012 level. Their 6 new warship underconstruction are also still in 20 percent completion rate despite it has been 6 years since the construction started. We still have enough time. As for China, no need to be worried if we are still in neutral position. They know Indonesia is likely going to be something in the future, they rather want to have good relation with us. ...

You know Ahmad I do admire your optimistic attitude, however you do appear to lack some realism unfortunately and that will come back to bite you in arse one day.

The PRC does not care one damn about your neutrality or non aligned status. To them you are either a client state or an enemy. There are no ifs, buts, or maybes. If you want to know to know what they are truly like just look at how they are treating Muslims in Xianjang. These are Uighurs who they imprison in concentration camps and prevent from practicing their faith, speaking their own language, and living their traditional lifestyle. The CCP are the Godless ones and whilst the Iranian mullahs call the Americans the great Satan, I would think that the CCP would be the Enormous Satan. Is that what you want for Indonesia? To sit at the table and break bread with Godless ones who persecute Muslims in Xianjang, stamping out both their religion and culture?

You don't have enough time. It is the one thing that you and the rest of us are short of. The 2nd Great Helmsman, Xi Jinping, has accelerated the upgrading and modernisation of the PLA. He understands that he has to have things underway before the domestic economy enters significant recession and the middle classes become very restless. It was always the plan of Deng Xaio Peng to have the PRC ready in all aspects to take its "proper place" in the world in 2035. He stressed and cautioned to prepare quietly and unobtrusively so as not to forewarn the enemies of the PRC. Luckily for us Xi Jinping is impatient. The other thing, is that many non Chinese politicians and government officials don't understand the fact that Deng's reforms were economic only and NOT POLITICAL. Yet I have seen so many claims by western leaders and government officials that trade and economic activity with the PRC will bring democracy to the country. That's the biggest load of rubbish since Neville Chamberlain got off the plane from Munich in 1938, waving a piece of paper, saying "peace in our time."

Which brings me to the next point, the Global Times is a CCP mouthpiece and is very much a stranger to the truth. Sometimes its worth a read for a laugh. However on here it is not acceptable as a source because it is very unreliable. The trouble with the PRC is obtaining reliable information and that can be difficult. Official PRC sources are unreliable and unofficial sources can be difficult to substantiate. What sources I use I have gathered over the years and apart from one highly authorative primary source, all of them are secondary sources. I still read the SCMP but since the clamp down in Hong Kong I treat that with considerable caution now. So you have to critically analyse everything you read and decide how valid it is.