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Indonesian MinDef accounts whether FB or X put video on both U214 and Scorpene. The pages also stated TNI-AL chief talk in media, that the decision for next batch of submarine will 'hopefully' soon come out. For sometime U214 and Scorpene is known as leading candidate. However the video also talk on SM39 and A3SM that more likely will equip Scorpene. Could it be sign that Scorpene is the pick?
Could two types going to be pick, as seems in Frigate Babcock Arrowhead derivative and Fincantieri PPA seems going to be the pick for Frigate programs? Question going to be in my opinion depends on political situation. Currently politically there's strong push for domestic industry involvement in manufacturing and production.
However for Submarine and Frigate there's going to be problem on capacity. So far only one yard that have capacity toward involvement in both Frigate and Submarine. Capabilities of other domestic yards seems still limited on Patrol boats and OPV.
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This is screenshot that I took from recent PT. PAL video on their year company profile. Despite all the talk for PAL in local media and government policy for Naval domestication, it is clear the size of PAL facility is limited.
They are only having 2 graving docks and one floating dock. Two enclose ship building facilities and one Submarine facility. Means if they are already involve in building one type of Frigate or Submarine, they can't involve on others. If they are already involve with Babcock Frigate and NG Submarine for example, then if MinDef want another Frigate or Submarine program to keep up with schedule replacement program, they have to engage overseas yard.
Yes in theory they (MinDef) can ask potential supplier to work with other domestic yards. However again that's means have to build learning curve for Frigate and Submarine. Something that so far PAL as the only yard that shown capabilities on that learning curve process already.
Thus if MinDef able to get approval for Fincantieri frigate size contract (whether FREMM or PPA), most likely it will be build by Fincantieri yard in Italy. Similar thing if they want more Submarine faster then what PAL can produce, some will have come from overseas yard.
Officially they still want 12 Frigate and 8 Submarine by early next decade. Something that current PAL capacity unlikely able to build all. Most likely PAL will stick with Arrowhead derivative design (for Frigate) and NG Scorpene (if they win the pick). Could another type Submarine be 214? Well it also could be DSME 209 build in DSME/Hanwha Ocean (not PAL facility), as the 2nd batch contract has not officially terminated (at least as far as my understanding). Budget wise is is also more fitting to have 6 DSME 209 1400 and 2 NG Scorpene to get that 8 number as plan. So Who knows.
One thing for sure, with current PAL capacity and capabilities, they can't build all the expected number of Frigates and Submarines envisage on MinDef mid-long term plan. This is where the political compromise must be meet.