Indonesia: 'green water navy'

[Ananda]

I can't talk much on how Philippines preparation for operating Submarine. However as you are putting, it is a long learning curve preparation. If not mistaken before their Scorpene ready, Malaysian Navy if not mistaken being lend by French one of their older Agusta Submarine, for them learning and familiarization on Submarine operation.

Singapore with bigger budget basically buy old ex Swedish Submarines doing years of more thorough step by step preparation, tech development and operational familiarisation. Before now committing themselves on brand new 218.

Indonesia experience when first operating Submarine, in my opinion is not exemplary ones. Basically TNI-AL (that time call ALRI) took crash program in much express way to operate those 12 Whiskey class. However they are doing it, because Soekarno wants to get to war with Dutch, if they don't let go West Papua. I do have chances to talk with one of retired Admiral from Indonesian Navy (decades ago). He's once one of Whiskey class commander. During Trikora operation, he is in title commander of the Sub. His XO is Russian, so does two third of the crew. Not enough time to churned enough Indonesian crew that's qualified for Submarine operation. However he also only have 6 months training in Vladivostok, then took one of the Submarine from Soviet Pacific Fleet stock, and sail back to Indonesia with mostly Russian/Soviet crews. If the war broke out that time, I do suspect some Indonesian equipments whether Fighters, Surface Ships and Submarine will have Russian crews.

So all this again shown no fast track for preparing one Navy toward Submarine operation. Honestly I don't buy some Pinoy defense enthusiasts that say they can operate one Submarine within two years. That's also why I said, they (Pinoy MinDef) might be talking for more than litoral Submarine capabilities. However all back to how much money they're willing to spend. Fasten learning curve not only risky, but also expensives.

 

[koxinga]

To add, when Vietnam ordered Russian Kilos in 2009 and had them delivered between 2014 - 2017, I've seen comments from regional observers that they spent a large part of their time tied up by the harbour during that period, as they lack sufficient experience or trained crews.

PN's submarine plans includes not just the boats themselves, but reportedly a comprehensive requirement for financial assistance and support for the infrastructure / training. They will have to start somewhere I guess, but I agree, it would take a considerable period of time (~10 years, based on Indonesia/Vietnam/Singapore) for them to be truly proficient, being able to deploy regularly.

 

[Ananda]

One other factor that also help ALRI to fasten Submarine operation capabilities in the early 60's, is the existence that more or less still intact and operational of ex Dutch East Indies Submarine facilities. This is something that not being talk much.

Naval Base Soerabaja

However, the retired admiral that I have talk before (decades ago as he's actually father of my Uni Friend), acknowledged the existence of Dutch Submarine facilities help a lot. Basically ALRI (with Russian help) only need to do some touch up to make them workable for Whiskey class. Considering prior to WW2, Dutch East Indies Navy also operating around a dozen submarines, the size of submarine pen was more or less only need bit adjustment.

I don't know if ex US submarines facilities in Subic, still available for Philippines to be modified and use. If yes, that's also going to help Pinoy preparation for submarines operation substantially.

 

[koxinga]

The proposed locations by the interested shipbuilders include Subic / ex Hanjin Shipyard facilities and Ormoc. So there is nothing there that is ex-USN.
Even if there were, it was more than 30 years ago and likely scrapped / disused, and USN did not operate diesel subs the last time they were around, so any facilities would / must be dismantled..

I don't think they need anything special, after all, refit is a once in 5 - 10 year need. The rest are on-shore training facilities.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I wonder if the Koninklijke Marine had a submarine base (or some facilities in Nederlands Nieuw-Guinea. Because of the increased tensions with Indonesia and a possible start of Operasi Trikora, the Hr.Ms. Zeehond S809 from the Dolfijnklasse, was already in preparation in 1962 to be sent to "het Verre Oosten".

 

[Ananda]

They don't have time to build military facilities in West Papua, in the sense on the level what they have build in Java, Sumatra other big islands. West Papua according to some Dutch historical channels or documents, is neglected territory. Not much attention on that territory until they lost other islands in Dutch East Indies and some mineral findings on West Papua. That's studies also become bases by US mining companies to bid after Indonesia take control.

Some of what they already build are like Biak AB, and Sentani AB. The naval base in Hollandia (Jayapura now) was the biggest they have in the territory. Submarine can berth there, but I don't believe they have build services and MRO capabilities like in Surabaya.

That's I gather from Navy source and old Dutch historical documents as like I've put before. Surabaya submarine facilities and other naval facilities are build to have considerable capacities to sustain and support East Indies fleet, including heavy MRO job. Surabaya naval base was build not as big as British build Singapore naval base, but however relative close in standard.

This is what ALRI inherited from Dutch, as when they left, Dutch doesn't want to spend money to dismantle their facilities, thus just hand over to Indonesian Republic forces. When they left West Papua, they also just hand over what they've build there to TNI. This is why TNI historian have enough picture what Dutch actually build in preparation for war with Indonesia for West Papua.

 

[Ananda]

https://fb.watch/nXvTFhxPUy/?mibextid=SphRi8

TNI-AL FB video channel, and this one shown visit of "Italian Warship Company" delegates, for potential Defense Assets co-op agreement. In short it is sales visit, and typical TNI official channel that even don't want to disclose the identity of the company.

Like everyone that following defense development can't tell that this is Fincantieri follow up sales pitch.



I enlarge the screen shoot on the video. Thus it is seems confirmed the rumours that Fincantieri also pitching on Indonesian submarine program. Thus asside NG, DSME, TKMS and now Fincantieri. Perhaps Fincantieri bidding for the Tactical Submarine, while NG and TKMS compete on Attack Submarine. Not sure what's the bidding position on DSME asside the ROK media talk that DSME/Hanwha Ocean now still try to get 2nd Batch 209-1400 on.

 

[Redlands18]

https://fb.watch/nXvTFhxPUy/?mibextid=SphRi8

TNI-AL FB video channel, and this one shown visit of "Italian Warship Company" delegates, for potential Defense Assets co-op agreement. In short it is sales visit, and typical TNI official channel that even don't want to disclose the identity of the company.

Like everyone that following defense development can't tell that this is Fincantieri follow up sales pitch.

View attachment 50898

I enlarge the screen shoot on the video. Thus it is seems confirmed the rumours that Fincantieri also pitching on Indonesian submarine program. Thus asside NG, DSME, TKMS and now Fincantieri. Perhaps Fincantieri bidding for the Tactical Submarine, while NG and TKMS compete on Attack Submarine. Not sure what's the bidding position on DSME asside the ROK media talk that DSME/Hanwha Ocean now still try to get 2nd Batch 209-1400 on.

Fincantieri doesn't have its own Sub design, it builds the TKMS Type 212CD for the Italian Navy.

 

[swerve]

Yes, but from what I've read the subs it's building aren't a simple copy of a stock German design. The Italians had some input into the design, & their current batch is suposed to have significant Italian content.

 

[Ananda]

it builds the TKMS Type 212CD for the Italian Navy.

By definition, DSME 209 1400 is TKMS design also. However that's also not stop DSME to sell the design base on their modifications. With Fincantieri then coming to the submarine bidding game, indicating they have right to sell the design after their own modification.

 

[Ananda]

Asside on getting into bidding game on Submarine, Fincantieri delegates seems also talking on how to finalise PPA deals. Something that now Italian officially admitted they are in serious talk for PPA with Indonesia.

Italy readies quick sale of patrol ships to Indonesia amid China fears

Shipbuilder Fincantieri has several PPA vessels in the pipeline that Jakarta could receive soon, an Italian junior defense minister said.

www.defensenews.com

The Indonesian MinDef and Navy rumour to switch the deal with Fincantieri from FREMM to PPA already surfaced for some time (which already being posted previously in this thread). From the article it is talk the PPA will come from what's being build at this moment for Italian navy stock. Something similar with Egyptian FREMM deal before. Just like in FREMM, Italian Navy then will add another order to replace the stock being release for export.

This deal with Fincantieri seems (at least in this stage) doesn't involve local production. Not surprising as Indonesian PAL capacity still fully engage with Arrowhead 140 derivative project.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Asside on getting into bidding game on Submarine, Fincantieri delegates seems also talking on how to finalise PPA deals. Something that now Italian officially admitted they are in serious talk for PPA with Indonesia.

Italy readies quick sale of patrol ships to Indonesia amid China fears

Shipbuilder Fincantieri has several PPA vessels in the pipeline that Jakarta could receive soon, an Italian junior defense minister said.

www.defensenews.com

The Indonesian MinDef and Navy rumour to switch the deal with Fincantieri from FREMM to PPA already surfaced for some time (which already being posted previously in this thread). From the article it is talk the PPA will come from what's being build at this moment for Italian navy stock. Something similar with Egyptian FREMM deal before. Just like in FREMM, Italian Navy then will add another order to replace the stock being release for export.

This deal with Fincantieri seems (at least in this stage) doesn't involve local production. Not surprising as Indonesian PAL capacity still fully engage with Arrowhead 140 derivative project.

One thing is sure, after 9 years of current administration, the programs for new submarines and second frigate class are still in the visits and lobby phase.

|"The two vessels which could be sold to Indonesia would either be among those launched but yet to enter into service, or include the seventh, still-unlaunched vessel."|

If this current administration can make a decision before the end of its term, and if the next administration not cancels the acquisition, then the two vessels will be undoubtly the two Light+ versions vessels (P433 and P435).

 

[Ananda]

Despite all the hype recently on using credit line, this method already been used on Indonesian defense procurement for decades, even back to Soekarno era. However unlike US and USSR originating credit line on defense procurement that usually provided by their state owned export financing institutions, Euro origination defense procurement ussualy be using commercial financial institutions.

This ussualy results with more prolong negotiations with respected financial institutions with Finance Ministry that need to shoop around for best term comparison. I remember in my Uni days that one of my Professors on state budget class, shown example one of reasons why US F-16 win against Frence Mirage 2K due to financing term.

Thus sorting out contract has to be followed by sorting out financing term. France seems already learn on this which's why they are now move in more coordination packages between commercial, industrial and financing combos. Let's see if others like Turkey or Italian can follow that. Definitely US has more experience in Asia-Pac on providing defense procurement packages combo.

 

[Meriv90]

There won't be credit line.

We already gifted the Egyptians two FREMM and no follow up order came.

If financial system was behind our export system we would have already placed the 6 FREMM.

I will expand asap I got a bit more of time sorry for the short message.

 

[Meriv90]

It's pretty frustrating consider that in Trieste a major Fincantieri location you have Generali that is one of the biggest world insurance companies (After AXA and Alliance), also a major location for Lloyd If not wrong.

Or that in Genova area we have our main military shipyard and at the same time is literally the cradle of the bank concept (the Spanish Armada, the Spanish call the 16th century the "Genoese century") and has been a shipbuilding center non stop for the last millennia,

I hope the EU goes forward fast so that Italian shipbuilding can access European financial system because the Italian one is completely failing the system.

So what's left for Fincantieri is trying to make a gift/dump the market, after all selling even at cost price still gives work to the shipyards and we can strangle the competition by the economies of scale.
Also the navy is in part satisfied(considering
the budget constraints) because it can modify the order like FREMM GP to FREMM EVO that will be more ASW. Same with the PPA if we place the lights we will probably convert all of them to FULL configuration.

At least in the Egyptian case the tally number of ships against the perceived growing menace (Turkey neo-ottomanism) is still the same, being manned by Italians or by Egyptians if the objective is keeping Suez channel open and protect the gasducts it will be the "same". With Indonesia gifting 2 FREMM would have been harder.

IMHO the PPA are nice for Indonesia, take them at cost price, use them against Chinese Cost Guard, but don't expect, sadly, financing from Italian side like the french do.

Consider they are the lastest iteration of our tech you can derive a crazy amount of lessons from them.

 

[Meriv90]

Fincantieri doesn't have its own Sub design, it builds the TKMS Type 212CD for the Italian Navy.

We have license and export rights on the U212

Plus you have to consider the health od the shipbuilder.

Fincantieri wins maintenance contract for German submarines

Fincantieri has announced that it has won a contract from the German Navy to provide maintenance and modernization services for four Type 212A submarines. The agreement, worth about 300 million euros…

www.defencetoday.com

If the Germans give to the Italians the maintenance of their subs for the next 5 years a reason must be there.

On TKMS that in the last decade has been through some troubled waters

Berlin considers stake in Thyssenkrupp marine unit to accelerate spin-off

There is the chance it ends up with Fincantieri

 

[Ananda]

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/04/egypt-and-gulf/investment-arms-trade-and-remittances

I believe Egypt has Gulf financial backers, this enable them on shopping defense equipment outside US (which ussualy being paid by annual US defense support). Thus conditions for defense procurement for Egypt is special case due availability of backers.

financial system was behind our export system we would have already placed the 6 FREMM.

Yes, I believe that's what I heard from my colleagues on government financial circle. The priority of the procurement overseas contract will be base on which financing term being meet first. Large procurement contract (not just defense) from government mostly finance either by domestic financial institutions (this for domestic suppliers) and overseas ones (for foreign suppliers).

This is not on Indonesian case alone, unless you deal with customers with large cash reserve (like Gulf Kingdoms), customers want credit line financing. This is mostly for able on being arrange on multi years budgetary spreads. Even some with large cash reserve nowdays more and more also goes with credit line, sometimes back with their own cash holds. Finance guys like credits on financing their large procurement, as it is easier to spreads on multi-year financing plans.

This's why Frenchie Salesman being smug and having bit superiority attitudes toward Italian or Turkey competitors in recent Indonesian defense contracts. Different situations if facing Japanese and ROK competitors, as they also come with both products, industrial and financing packages. US in other hand playing in different level altogether.

So yes both Turkey and Italian eventough already bag preliminary contracts, unless can find financing partners, potentially can be cut by others that already come with more complete packages. In case on Frigate, Japan (with Mogami) rumours lobby quite intensively. UK also try to get second batch contracts for Arrowhead 140 derivatives.

 

[Meriv90]

The Japanese have the full package?

I thought that the lack of exports in the last 10 years is due to the fact it is handled by the ministry white collars and not the sellers from the Keiratsu.

Yeah where there isn't financing in the way like Qatar and the US we can beat the french, but the french ability to do a "square" (we call it like that in Italian from square defensive formations) and coordinate the national effort is one of their main strengths.

 

[Ananda]

Japan for commercial civilian projects actually in SEA even wholle Asia-Pacific can be said pioneer on conducting coherence effort between their bureaucracy and private sectors. Their JICA is one most efficient bureaucracy machines for lobby on behalf Japanese businesses.

Chinese and ROK can be said following Japanese model on bureaucracy and businesses coherent effort when doing lobby. However you are right previously that effort not being follow on defense industry, as part previous Japan self constraint on doing defense businesses.

However in the last few years, I sense their effort on defense businesses become more coherent. They begin got some defense businesses in Philippines, and lately I see on Frigate, their bureaucracy always bring their businesses and JMSDF toward Indonesian MinDef and Military establishment visits.



Japan is known to have abilities on providing attractive financing packages combine with their Industrial offering. So I would say, if they are serious on defense industry co-op game, they can become one coherent lobby machines. As they have shown on commercial civilian projects.

 

[swerve]

There won't be credit line.

We already gifted the Egyptians two FREMM and no follow up order came.

If financial system was behind our export system we would have already placed the 6 FREMM.

I will expand asap I got a bit more of time sorry for the short message.

I thought the Egyptians (or their Gulf backers) paid for those FREMMs.

BTW, I hate "gifted". "Gave" has been good enough for hundreds of years. "Gift" is a noun related to the verb "give". Bloody yanks, verbing a noun which already had a verb form.