Over at F16.net, poster twintwinsingle is an experienced A-10C pilot and shares his perspective on various aricraft and other aspects of the CAS mission.
There are lots of prop planes operating over the battlefield right now in Afghanistan, manned and unmanned, at similar altitudes to an AT-6. Not much in the way of shootdowns happening for fixed wing in Afghanistan. Is an AT-6 more vulnerable than an A-10, F-16, F-35, etc.? Of course it is. Can it offer superb support to our troops, in a variety of theaters, for not much impact on the US budget? I say it can. Why have none of our coalition members gone after one? Historically, none of our partners have gone after CAS jets either. No FMS for the A-10 back in the day. Nobody, including the US, wanted it. Is there a market for a COIN aircraft in smaller countries? Yes. Countries have already fielded the ST as a COIN aircraft. Why? Because they need a CAS airplane and don't have the money for a "big" CAS jet, like the A-10. Sound familiar? Sounds just like the US to me.
We need a CAS airplane because we keep sending our troops and special operators into these small countries to fight low intensity, low threat to air ops conflicts and we only have 350 30+ year old A-10's that will need replaced soon. We can't replace them with a better A-10. Can't afford it. We can afford to buy 200-300 AT-6's, ST's or OV-10's, though, and leverage the cost savings that would come from several other (poorer) countries jumpink on the buy also.
Popcorn, what would the A-10 replacement of the early 90's been, if I were king? Honestly, the A-10 airframe would be a great start. A rugged airplane with a high-lift wing and a 30mm gun. Where the A-10 could have been greatly improved upon was in the area of engines, structural ruggedness and avionics. Whether this could have been best accomplished by an all-new design or simply building new A-10's that incorporated the lessons learned from the A-10A, I don't know. The A-10D SuperHog! Several aspects of the A-10, as it was built, are prone to stress cracks over time. Much money has been spent over the years (as early as the mid 90's) to SLEP the Hog and deal with these cracks. A new-build jet could have had all of those problems engineered out. Digital avionics (similar to the Strike Eagle) would have improved the reliability of the A-10's analog suite. Also, this would have allowed the jet to "self diagnose" system issue's for MX, as the Strike Eagle and Super Hornet can do, to an extent. This saves MX time and improves reliability. The Hog does not have this capability at all, even the A-10C. Incorporation of 1760 connectivity to the stations would have allowed incorporation of LANTIRN (the system in vogue in the early '90's) and opened up the weapons that the jet could carry. Lastly, the small turbofan techology of the early '90's was leaps and bounds better that that of the early '70's. An almost 100% increase in thrust with a reduction in fuel consumption was possible as early as 20 yrs ago. This would have been the real game-changer. A new build 'Hog, without the stress crack issue of the A, and with double the thrust would have allowed a loaded Hog to operate from a 4000 ft strip with full-fuel, fly 50-75 kts faster to the fight, refuel 10000 ft higher, climb back up to attack altitude in 1/2 the time, and on and on. That jet would have been great. Many of those gains have been made with the A-10C program. However, the biggest one (engines) is VERY expensive and the airframe, as previously mentioned, would not deal well with the added power due to its propensity for stress cracks.
But, that jet will NEVER exist, as great as it would have been.
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Several threads in this discussion have highlighted the limitations of any COIN aircraft in a medium threat, DS scenario. It also highlights the inherent risk of the CAS mission when there is a credible threat close to the friendly forces. Unlike AI, where a jet is flying a strike route and likely won't pass over the same area twice, a CAS pilot is in the same general area for many minutes if not hours. He can mitigate soem risk by being unpredictable in where he hold, how he attacks the target, etc., but when it comes down to it, the enemy knows where he'll be...close to the troops he's supporting. This has resulted in several lost Hornets, Harriers, Vipers and Hogs over the years as well.
Opposed CAS is dangerous by its very nature...the necessity to be close enough to the supported forces to evaluate the situation and prosecute the attack. In a perfect world, with the right digital systems in place, the situation can be discerned from greater stand-off and the attack prosecuted from there. However, in situations where that stuff fails or the people are not so-equipped (as happens very frequently in Afghanistan and Iraq), there is always the potential to have to get in closer to figure things out. Therein lies the danger and that can never, realistically, be planned out of the CAS equation
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Boeing proposal for new-build OV-10. Looks pretty interesting. M230 30mm gun from the Apache. Still no speed demon, but the USAF has thousands of hours of operating these things (with smaller motors) from austere fields. I know a few former OV-10 guys from the AF and they said the Marine OV-10D was pretty sweet, compared with the USAF's A-model. Modern sensors and CM suites should make it very viable in the low intensity COIN conflicts. My 2 pennies.