Hypothetical Forces : Transformation

kato

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Hey, a question about MLRS. Isn't it a multinational program? Wouldn't that qualify for our our use?
Launcher is still a wholy Lockheed-Martin-produced affair, chassis also US-made (FCS differs between operator nations). So not much of a chance i think.

(as long as we're talking about the system known among other things as M270 and MARS)
 

B.Smitty

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Multiple Launch Rocket System is not a name specifically concerning the US M270 system. It is concerning every system, that is Multiple Launch Rocket: like the BM-21, Teruel, Valkiri etc. Could be self-propelled, could be towed.
Yes, I realize I should have qualified my question as pertaining to the M270 MLRS.
 

B.Smitty

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Kato,

Did you ever list the ORBATs of our neighbors? At least the types of systems they operate? I didn't see it.
 

kato

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Did you ever list the ORBATs of our neighbors? At least the types of systems they operate? I didn't see it.
Not the systems, only the units. Sec...

ok.
OrBat on Page 2 (Post #19), Systems below.

not putting as much care into these as for Blue, but roughly...

Green 1
Ground: 140 Leopard 2A4, 150 Leopard 1A5 (+130 stock), 240 Marder; 54 M109, 36 FH70, 36 M110, 18 M56, 32 LARS; 36 Jaguar 1/2, 50 Luchs; ~250 M113, ~100 Bv-206; 30 Roland, 70 Gepard, 50 Bofors 40mm/L70 (reserve), 60 Hawk
Helo: 37 PAH-1/Bo-105P, 31 Bo-105M, 22 UH-1D
Airforce: 48 Tornado IDS, 48 Tornado ADV, 24 Alpha Jet A, 17 Do-28, 18 C-160, 7 HFB-320
Changes: Additional systems as outlined for sale in stocks.

Green 2
Ground: 30 Leopard 1A5, 90 M48A2 (+50 stock), 72 Marder, 36 M109, 32 FH-70, 60 M113, 24 Hawk; 6 Lance SSM
Helo: 28 CH-53, 34 UH-1D
Airforce: 36 RF-4E, 3 Do-28, 2 Gulfstream III
Changes: M48 likely to be replaced by Leopard 1A5 from Green 1. Lance SSM most likely disfunctional.

Orange
Ground: 580 Leopard 2A4, 320 Leopard 1A5, 360 M48A2 (most stocked), 610 Marder; 250 M109, 100 FH-70, 100 M110, 80 LARS, 80 M101; 700 M113; 42 Hawk, 28 Nike Hercules (conventional), 64 Gepard, 82 Roland
Helo: 22 Sea King, 18 Lynx, 117 UH-1, 62 CH-53, 116 PAH-1/Bo-105P, 36 Bo-105M
Airforce: 68 F-4F/ICE, 30 RF-4E, 110 Tornado IDS, 50 Alpha Jet A, 42 C-160, 41 Do-28, 18 Atlantique
Changes: Nike Hercules being replaced by Patriot PAC-1
 
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B.Smitty

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Orange
Ground: 580 Leopard 2A4, 320 Leopard 1A5, 360 M48A2 (most stocked), 610 Marder; 250 M109, 100 FH-70, 100 M110, 80 LARS, 80 M101; 700 M113; 42 Hawk, 28 Nike Hercules (conventional), 64 Gepard, 82 Roland
Helo: 22 Sea King, 18 Lynx, 117 UH-1, 62 CH-53, 116 PAH-1/Bo-105P, 36 Bo-105M
Airforce: 68 F-4F/ICE, 30 RF-4E, 110 Tornado IDS, 50 Alpha Jet A, 42 C-160, 41 Do-28, 18 Atlantique
Changes: Nike Hercules being replaced by Patriot PAC-1
Are we really worried about Orange attacking us? This scenario feels like Germany splitting into pieces. Is Orange looking for EU membership too? NATO?

Getting in ground war with them would be a confusing mess. Leopards shooting Leopards. Marders shooting Marders.
 

BuSOF

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Brigade structure doesn't prevent the possibillity for cross-attachments in case of war. But is sure does lower costs. Battalion battlegroups are mostly needed when the one army needs to deploy compact combined arms formations on rough terrain and over great distances. The British army uses battlegroups because they are appropriate for pecekeeping deployments one by one. The country we specify is not bigger than one's hand. Even the present structure of the brigade fits perfectly in my suggestion.

Long range SAMs are prohibited by treaty. So both S-300 and Patriot are off-limits. At least do the courtesy of reading the whole thread, before making obviously inappropriate propositions like that or the Il-76. The assumption of LR-SAMs don't needing air defense the way air bases do is completely wrong. The are immobile and could be destroyed provided the appropriate tactics are used. And in such a situation SAMs alone turn into valuable assets that need air defense. So I would buy Buks and combine each launcher with a AAA-mounted trucks and two Unimogs, transporting MANPADS crews.

I would use the three reserve Security battalions and convert them to military police battalions to boost the MP to the levels I mentioned.
If that is possible I would really want to give the Border guards ranger training, supply them with ATGMs and MANPADS as they would be the first to face an invading force.

About helicopters you keep on saying "Quality foremost!" but noone specifies why Cougars and Super Pumas have more quality per se. As for the S-70, it is probably the worst american tactical transport helicopter in service and I don't see any point of even discussing it. Mi-17 doesn't need to perform well with underslung cargo (by the way no chopper of that size does), because it could house up to 4800kg of cargo inside. 3-4 Hercules are very much needed as we are not talking only about the size of Blue here. We're forming an alliance with Green 1 and 2, so this puts their combined territory up to at least 250.000 square km. These planes are also crucial for pulling logistics of the peacekeeping missions through. 3-4 businessjet EW-platforms are also very needed for countering any possible strong EW-emmisions as our territory is so small that such a campaign could put all of our sophisticated defenses to their knees.

Nice accounts about fighter operations have always proven themselves wrong, so I wouldn't count on that. Specifically because blue pilots are experienced on the F-4 I wouldn't buy that type. The sooner we convert to a more advanced type the better. So if Blue order the MiG-29s now we'll get them on a year and in two more years we'll have the pilots trained. If we are talking specifically about Germany here it is even better as there are ex-NVA pilots available. Westernization costs at least $2,5mln. and not more than $4mln. Any prices beyond that are pure marketing. Spare parts have never been an issue for the MiG-29s, specifically not in the mid-1990s. There were abundant spares spread across the former USSR, many of them even became target of corruption and it was cheaper and easier to acquire spares then than it is nowadays.
 

kato

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Getting in ground war with them would be a confusing mess. Leopards shooting Leopards. Marders shooting Marders.
A couple years down the line that won't matter anymore, since save for e.g. the Leos, pretty much most ground equipment needs replacement or upgrade of some kind anyway, and Orange would definitely choose different paths from Blue/Green there. Any war scenario wouldn't be immediate.

---

Yes, the basic outset is a German split. By starting in 1995, several years later, we at least have the political mess out of the way. I've been avoiding names for the same reason ;)

I'm still pondering the question whether Orange should have absorbed the GDR around 1990 - as that would make Orange even less economically viable - or whether the GDR should stay independant. Plant a couple treaty limitations in the post-occupation treaties, and most NVA equipment would be useless to Orange either.

Orange would definitely have problems with its military budget, and would have to limit any purchasing to the minimum (unlike Blue/Green).

The scenario actually isn't completely impossible. Short history of this split, completely made up on the spot:
1978/1979 - political split between governing party in Green 1 and allied party in rest of country; by mid-80s, this party takes over political power in Green 2 and Blue, albeit with regional differences
1983 - Blue is formed as state of the federation
1986 - regional separatism starts gaining favour
1988 - collision over spending, especially in military regards
1988/1989 - political deadlock in federation through blockade by Blue/Green alliance
1990/1991 - federation splits

---

Orange currently holds a kind of "Observer" status in both EU and NATO; in the near future, their development would likely be to hinch onto the USA. Equipment-wise, mixing such imports with domestic production.
Timeframe is good as during the mid-90s there won't be too much influencing by any superpower.
 

Jon K

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Brigade structure doesn't prevent the possibillity for cross-attachments in case of war. But is sure does lower costs. Battalion battlegroups are mostly needed when the one army needs to deploy compact combined arms formations on rough terrain and over great distances.
Why I would argue for some kind of BG's (or whatever they are called) is specifically the reason that even as country is small, there's just one brigade, which might well be split in wartime. Additionally, with smaller HQ's there's possibility of rotating them in international tasks (both peacekeeping and various exercises) to get more varied experience basis without breaking up teams. Additionally, BG's can train against each other.

But if Brigade HQ is needed, I would suggest that peacetime Ground Forces HQ would be converted to a Brigade HQ on mobilization.

The assumption of LR-SAMs don't needing air defense the way air bases do is completely wrong. The are immobile and could be destroyed provided the appropriate tactics are used. And in such a situation SAMs alone turn into valuable assets that need air defense. So I would buy Buks and combine each launcher with a AAA-mounted trucks and two Unimogs, transporting MANPADS crews.
LR SAM's are not immobile, see S-300 for example or Bloodhound for older one. While they would certainly need additional air defences they're not fixed targets like airbases or reserve air bases. If SAM is considered offensive weapon with 50km max range, then BUK possibly offers most bang for buck.

About helicopters you keep on saying "Quality foremost!" but noone specifies why Cougars and Super Pumas have more quality per se.
Cougar RESCO was my suggestion as latest US hardware was out of limits anyway. For special forces insertion and high survivability in wartime best possible avionics are needed. While Mi-17 is probably good helicopter by itself, I don't think it offers the penetration aids Cougar RESCO has. AS.725 would be
even better, but not available in timeframe.

If scenario is German Split, then the SOF and security operations are of paramount importance as patrols can be easily infiltrated in both directions. Schwabisch patrols, of course, can be easily found out.

3-4 Hercules are very much needed as we are not talking only about the size of Blue here. We're forming an alliance with Green 1 and 2, so this puts their combined territory up to at least 250.000 square km. These planes are also crucial for pulling logistics of the peacekeeping missions through.
If the planes are needed for national defense scenarios, there's also possibility of acquiring civilian cargo planes for state owned airline and getting revenue for operating them during peacetime. Then Il-76's actually might not be very bad option, they carry much more weight than C-130's and can be operated globally for civilian revenue. Ideally those planes should be Il-78T's which can be operated as tankers as well.

3-4 businessjet EW-platforms are also very needed for countering any possible strong EW-emmisions as our territory is so small that such a campaign could put all of our sophisticated defenses to their knees.
Yes, and additionally these can also be used as powerful offensive weapons. In wartime Orange would have need of operating powerful mechanized manouver formations outside her home turf. The formations would be very dependent upon wireless communications, and thus vulnerable for EW. Additionally, EW assets also add to national intelligence picture and can be used to help air defense.
 

kato

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We're forming an alliance with Green 1 and 2, so this puts their combined territory up to at least 250.000 square km.
More like 140,000 km²; roughly 21 million people. Combined, we're 30% bigger than the GDR on both accounts.

Even leaving the GSFG aside, the NVA by itself operated as transport aircraft only 6 years earlier long-range Tu-154M, Tu-134 and Il-62M (8 total) and medium-range An-26 and L-410 (24 total); and as combat aircraft some 140 current systems plus some 300 older or less capable systems.
In comparison Blue/Green only operates some 100 current and 60 less capable combat aircraft, 18 medium-range transports, and 20 short-range liaison transports.
 

B.Smitty

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Spare parts have never been an issue for the MiG-29s, specifically not in the mid-1990s. There were abundant spares spread across the former USSR, many of them even became target of corruption and it was cheaper and easier to acquire spares then than it is nowadays.

Not according to this account (http://www.sci.fi/~fta/MiG-29-2b.htm),

"In April 1991, LtGen. Jörg Kuebart, became the Chief of Staff of the new post-Cold War consolidated German Air Force (Luftwaffe) after serving two years as the Deputy Commander and Chief AAFCE. His initial description of the MiG-29 was that it was "...a good fighter airplane, and it is relatively easy to maintain. But it carries one very big disadvantage - depending upon the Soviets for industrial support. At present our flying rate is going down, because we lack spare parts. We have been involved in extensive talks with the Soviets, but as of today I haven't received any spare parts (Armed Forces Journal International, Dec91, pg 49).""

German and Indian experience with early MiG-29s,

"1. The MiG-29 had intensive problems in operation and maintenance since its induction due to premature failure of engines, components, and systems. 74% of the engines failed within five years, were out of supply pipeline for three years, and reduced aircraft availability by 15, to 20%. This led to a decision to restrict flying efforts and therefore compromised operational and training commitments."

"4. Non-availability of critical radar components and spares resulted in the grounding of significant numbers of aircraft. Five aircraft were out of action for over six months while two were in the hanger for over two years. Unserviceability of computers and the inability to fix them cost excessive amounts of money to rectify."
 

B.Smitty

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Yes, the basic outset is a German split. By starting in 1995, several years later, we at least have the political mess out of the way. I've been avoiding names for the same reason ;)
Did we get any of the military/industrial complex in the split? What will happen with future Leo and Marder upgrades (e.g. Leo 2A5, 2A6; Marder 1A5)? Pzh 2000? SMArt 155? Eurofighter (down the road)? Joint upgrade programs with other countries?

Do we still have enough German nationalism to resist buying anything French?
 

B.Smitty

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I've been doing a bit more research on Mirage 2000-5 prices.

- 60 were sold to Taiwan in 1992 for US$3.8 billion. (US$63.3 million each)
- 15 were sold to Greece in 1999 for US$825 million (US$55 million each)

So maybe the Mirage price isn't as astronomical as I had originally thought.

Given the problems Russia was having during this period, I still think the Mirage 2000-5 is our best option. It's a modern, widely used aircraft, from a stable supplier.

We can upgrade to Mk2s or -9s at a later date.

Kato, does Orange have AMRAAMs for their F-4F/ICEs?
 

kato

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Did we get any of the military/industrial complex in the split?
Tons, for the whole Blue/Green alliance.

Blue got some Daimler-Benz plants (for trucks and busses), as well as BASF and a DuPont plant (both chemicals). There are a considerable number of - military - electronics suppliers. There are considerable capacities in steel industry, as well as a number of smaller parts providers (e.g. a number of plants that currently belong to Rheinmetall Automotive).

Industry in Green 1 focusses on the airforce (Tornado production line with DASA!), but also has BMW and MTU of course - and, as a big factor, almost all of Krauss-Maffei*, MAN and some Diehl companies.

Green 2 has: Porsche, the MTU plant Friedrichshafen, and of course... Heckler & Koch and Mauser**, some Diehl companies.

Orange retains, among other things, Wegmann*, MBB**, Thyssen, Krupp and Rheinmetall. Orange also of course keeps the entire naval industry.

*- Before the KMW fusion, Krauss-Maffei built chassis, Wegmann most turrets.
**- would have later been absorbed by Rheinmetall and DASA/EADS respectively

What will happen with future Leo and Marder upgrades (e.g. Leo 2A5, 2A6; Marder 1A5)? Pzh 2000? SMArt 155? Eurofighter (down the road)? Joint upgrade programs with other countries?
First off: Some projects originally acquired between 1989 and 1993 (roughly) have been put on the backburner. Among these are e.g. Wiesel (capacity and copyright went to Green 2), or Germany acquiring Patriots (now being introduced slowly by Orange).

Marder 1A5 was essentially just a urgent-requirement upgrade (for Kosovo). Instead, e.g. the Marder 2 project could be realized (was cancelled in 1992 for lack of need/money; 43t forerunner to Puma).

SMArt 155... typical example: the two companies that did it in a joint-venture are now split between two countries (Orange and Green 2), so it's unlikely to happen that way. However, a comparable guided munition could be developed by either side.

PzH2000 is the opposite essentially: It was designed by Wegmann, Rheinmetall and MaK - all of which are now in Orange; so a PzH2000 for Orange could still be likely. I'd say 2-3 years later though (introduction not before 1999).

Eurofighter should definitely be a go-ahead. Even if EADS isn't formed, DASA (in Green 1) would still be involved (EADS currently holds 33% of Eurofighter, DASA forms most of the German part of EADS).
Eurofighter could be an interesting acquirement as next generation after what's currently acquired for Blue/Green (not before 2010 anyway).

Do we still have enough German nationalism to resist buying anything French?
Not particularly, in the South (ie in Blue/Green). Parts of Blue as well as two thirds of Green 2 were in the French Occupation Zone. "Green 2" in reality currently houses some 2,000 soldiers the German-French Brigade.

Kato, does Orange have AMRAAMs for their F-4F/ICEs?
Yes, though not that many (say only one of the two fighter wings equipped, other runs with Sparrows).
 

B.Smitty

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Hmm, well this changes things.

For one, the spares situation for our land forces now looks tenuous if things go bad with Orange. We may have to dump most of our AFVs (or at least develop indigenous alternatives for turret components, main guns, and so on).

Of course Orange is worse off; Green1 provides critical spares for major portions of their land forces AND Tornadoes.

It also makes me think we should look at Tornado ADV more closely (as our Green neighbors are probably as close to friends as we can get).
 
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MarcH

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For one, the spares situation for our land forces now looks tenuous if things go bad with Orange. We may have to dump most of our AFVs (or at least develop indigenous alternatives for turret components, main guns, and so on).
Which pretty much rules out most european equipment for both sides. Diehl tracks, MTU engines, Renk transmissions, Rheinmetall & Mauser guns...
Now go and tell our tankers they have to give up their Leopards for glorified T-72's. ;)
 

B.Smitty

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Which pretty much rules out most european equipment for both sides. Diehl tracks, MTU engines, Renk transmissions, Rheinmetall & Mauser guns...
Now go and tell our tankers they have to give up their Leopards for glorified T-72's. ;)
Well, presumably we have good relations with Green1 and 2, so engines, and tracks are ok.

Ideally we would work out our differences with Orange, and everyone could live happily ever after.

Barring that, we might want to consider re-turreting our Leos with a Leclerc, Chally or Merkava turret (including gun).

We could also replace the turrets on our Marders with an unmanned Israeli system like Sampson.
 

Jon K

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Even leaving the GSFG aside, the NVA by itself operated as transport aircraft only 6 years earlier long-range Tu-154M, Tu-134 and Il-62M (8 total) and medium-range An-26 and L-410 (24 total); and as combat aircraft some 140 current systems plus some 300 older or less capable systems.
In comparison Blue/Green only operates some 100 current and 60 less capable combat aircraft, 18 medium-range transports, and 20 short-range liaison transports.
But - at least not yet - the Alliance probably does not operate horde of security and military advisors in Third World Dictatorships, and the cost of each military item is bound to skyrocket by every generation. Thus numbers are inevitably going down.
 

BuSOF

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I could find th ebest russian hardware for almost every weapon system type we need, but 'm trying desperately not to in order not to ber blamed for lack of objectivity. However:
I thought anyway that the 900.000. people city was Frankfurt, so I guess I wa sright. I am not familiar with the terrain there but under some circumstances the T-72 is a lot better as it is a lot lighter. PT-91 is also an option. The statement that battalion battle group headquarters are better for overseas deployments doesn't make any sence. Moreover when fully mobilised th edefense forces of thet country would be between 100000 and 250000, so how do you expect to command them with only one brigade HQ? Battlegroups can train against each other. Battalions can't? You tend to think that peacetime and wartime order of battle overlap each other. The minimum command centers in peacetime is one ground operations brigade HQ, one air operations brigade HQ, one forces logistical support brigade HQ and reserves administration.
Yes, I am seeing the S-300. The best solution for us. It is also prohibited to us. As for the Bloodhound and Patriot I didn't say they are stationary, but you gotta be blind in order not to see that they are severely low maneuverable.
I stopped taking info from the net for granted a while ago. So I will tell you something about the Cougar and the MiG-29. Our air force is acquiring Cougars, produced in 2006, 2007 and the last Cougar will be delivered next year. In 2007 there were at least two instances for critical situations in the air. Avionics malfunction. The first was over the ground, the second over the sea while maritime air refreshment cources. Complete avionics blackout and I think in one of those occasions engine controls were also problematic. There are two reasons why the machines weren't lost: 1) excellent skills of the pilots and 2) each Cougar flew in pair with a Mi-17. And that is 2007. So you are talking about Cougar being superior. Why, just because you read it in the net? About MiG-29. I am telling you waht i am being told by retired air force logistics officers. So a statement by a retired german air force general doesn't mean that his conclusions are all wright. In the middle of the 90s there were still issues about russian troops in Germany and russian debt etc. So it is normal for the Luftwaffe to have difficulties acquiring spares. Why don't you take a look to Hungary or Slovakia? They acquired MiGs during the same period. Did they have problems? Sure, everyone does, even the USAF. But were they as grave as you say they were? Deffinitely not.

Commersial services provided by military planes for self-sustainment are not always the best solution. And I still don't see why you want Il-78s, let alone Il-76s. About EW conciderations I agree. That was just exactly what I was talking about.

Kato, I don't understand why you compare our Blue with the DDR and it's cargo planes

I also don't understand are we going for fighters right away or wait a little bit.
If we are desperately needing fighter force as soon as possible we should order MiGs right away. If we're not in such a hurry we could wait for the EF-2000, but remember that the programm was slowed several times because Germany was unsure about going on or not. So if Germany splits that means at least another 7-8 years late, ie. first Eurofighters would enter service around 2011-2012.
 

Jon K

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You tend to think that peacetime and wartime order of battle overlap each other. The minimum command centers in peacetime is one ground operations brigade HQ, one air operations brigade HQ, one forces logistical support brigade HQ and reserves administration.
Closer wartime and peacetime organisations are, better they work. There's no money to buy extensive manouver forces. One has to remember that countries size of Green in our world strive to maintain one or two manouver brigades.

So I will tell you something about the Cougar and the MiG-29.
Your story may well be true, but on the other hand many air forces, navies, armies and border guards have years of excellent service by Cougar/Puma in most harshest conditions. I don't think there's a penetration version of Mi-17 available (ie. one with FLIR etc toys).

Commersial services provided by military planes for self-sustainment are not always the best solution. And I still don't see why you want Il-78s, let alone Il-76s.
It was a suggestion to limit the budget burden.

In timeframe 1995-today Il-76's are well in demand worldwide not only for military and aid duties but also for JOT air transport of various industrial components etc. C-130, while good plane, does not offer as good bang for buck as Il-76, especially as there seems to be very little demand for C-130 in civilian cargo business.

A newly independent country with shadowy alliances may well find that a cargo airliner capable of airlifting various systems from variety of suppliers (eg. the usual suspects such as Israel, Singapore, South Africa, Belarus etc.) may well prove handy.
 

kato

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I thought anyway that the 900.000. people city was Frankfurt, so I guess I wa sright.
It's not. Frankfurt is part of Orange, the basin to the north pointed out in ... map 4/5, post #29. The 900k px agglomeration is Mannheim/Ludwigshafen (500k combined) with adjacent cities. The other agglomeration is Karlsruhe and its neighbors.

Moreover when fully mobilised th edefense forces of thet country would be between 100000 and 250000, so how do you expect to command them with only one brigade HQ?
For comparison: in Cold War terms, we'd have roughly 1.5 to 2 divisions in Blue at full mobilization (divisional territorial command, divisional field command roughly). Definitely not above 100,000 soldiers, although we could of course always build up pure light infantry without any mobility and with pretty much only the rifles in their hands (sidenote: that's not something we'll need to be concerned about btw - one of the depots stocks a quarter million small arms).

Kato, I don't understand why you compare our Blue with the DDR and it's cargo planes
Size/relevance comparison. Sure, we don't need the same kinda forces there as the GDR, but having something mid-sized, able to carry logistics for our forces, would be nice. I agree that Il-76 are a bit over the top, and we don't need tankers at all so far.
Maybe not even something the size of a C-130, but rather something along the lines of a LET L-610G or a ATR-42 would be interesting (ie a 40-seater that in cargo configuration could carry 3-4 tons useful payload over medium distances).
Anything above that should rather be handled internationally with Green 1/2.

first Eurofighters would enter service around 2011-2012.
Indeed, at the earliest. We'd need something to bridge until then, 15-17 years is a bit much. In my opinion, there should to be a fighter squadron operational by the time of the next 5-year-plan (ie around 2000), to give a frame of reference. By operational i mean that we have at least 12 aircraft delivered, flight-worthy, equipped, and pilots for these trained.
 
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