Germany

Massive

Well-Known Member
The reservist association states a financial need of 55-60 billion annual budget to realize the capability profile as planned, or about 1.6% GDP.
2.0% of GDP for Germany is a very big number.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. My sense is that Germany had not been spending 2.0% because it would deliver more capability than needed (and potentially more than Germany's neighbors would prefer). Huge range of options becomes available.

Regards,

Massive
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
2.0% of GDP for Germany is a very big number.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. My sense is that Germany had not been spending 2.0% because it would deliver more capability than needed (and potentially more than Germany's neighbors would prefer). Huge range of options becomes available.

Regards,

Massive
If some of the funding was directed towards increased FCAS R&D and the new generation tank, France won’t be complaining about Germany’s 2% of GDP on defence.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Spiegel Online has an English-language article that details that the 100-billion sum is likely based on a (confidential) proposal prepared by the Bundeswehr in October 2021 (i.e. before the formation of the current government) that called for creation of a 102 billion special fonds to finance complex procurements projects by decoupling them from annual procurement budgets.

The proposal included a list of projects that the Bundeswehr would like financed from it:
  • 20 billion for ammunition
  • 15 billion for Tornado successor programme
  • 5 billion for CH-53G successor programme
  • 3 billion for D-LBO/TEN
  • 2 billion for 3rd batch K130 corvettes (replacement of 1st batch)
  • 34 billion for a variety of multinational development projects (FCAS, MGCS, TWISTER, SATOC etc)
  • 23 billion for a large garden variety of projects with sub-one-billion requirement
Whether actual, current procurement demand matches that list in light of geopolitical requirements is a different thing.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. My sense is that Germany had not been spending 2.0% because it would deliver more capability than needed (and potentially more than Germany's neighbors would prefer).
I think that there was a general consensus in Germany that 2% of GDP was "too much" and that it was better to have a limited military, not least because that meant diplomacy and trade had to be prioritised. Germany was running a budget surplus for many years so certainly had the money available.

However, most of the big NATO powers and probably Poland too did want Germany to spend more. As Europe's largest economy it had a duty to be a big spender on defence and by extension spend the most on NATO security in Europe. Germany's underspending was like Usain Bolt cruising on the last leg of the 4x100m final - not losing the race but making it unnecessarily close. I'm struggling to think of a country in NATO that was actually opposed to Germany hitting the 2% marker.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
However, most of the big NATO powers and probably Poland too did want Germany to spend more.
Poland already has claimed that the German increase isn't enough, and wants NATO-Europe countries to broadband raise their defense budgets from 300 to 600 billion annually.

Presumably without them spending a single cent more that is.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Poland already has claimed that the German increase isn't enough, and wants NATO-Europe countries to broadband raise their defense budgets from 300 to 600 billion annually.

Presumably without them spending a single cent more that is.
To be fair to the Poles they do spend more than 2% of GDP on defence and are aiming to increase the percentage. Meanwhile Italy, Spain, Denmark, Netherlands and others are still not at 2%.

European NATO states might not get to 600 billion (dollars/euros?) but the slowpokes spending at least 2% of GDP would help a lot.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
600 billion are 4% of the GDP of the European Union.
Putting aside the fact that the UK is no longer in the EU so affects the calculations, I did say "European NATO states may not get to 600 billion". However, if Spain, Italy and others raised their spending to 2% of GDP it would make a difference in terms of NATO strength.

Given Russia's recent actions, I think the NATO target should be raised to 3%. It's doable and given the threat China, not just Russia, poses to the world I think it's not an unreasonable goal.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
600 billion are 4% of the GDP of the European Union.
Close, but not quite: USD 600 billion is 3.5% of the estimated nominal GDP of the EU in 2021 ($17.5 trillion according to the IMF).

Still improbable, though. 2% would be $350 billion. That seems doable, with Germany's planned increase.
 

Shanesworld

Well-Known Member
If Russias the concern they wont have to do it for more than a decade as a) they will quickly outpace the ability of the russian economy to keep uo and b) while both blocks will face demographic issues (and as quickly as germany is aging) Russia demographic picture is gar worse.
 

MarcH

Member
I don't like this fixation on numbers. At least not those numbers. It matters imho little if Europe spends 1.x % or 2.x % on defense. What counts is the military capability. Here in Germany we could have done a lot better with more efficient structures, without spending one additional Euro.

One example from the list above. Additional K130 ? Seriously ? That's not money wisely spend. Already the second batch was only ordered to subsidize the involved shipyards. Pushing for those were the MdB's Siemtje Möller and Ingo Gädechens with friendly support by Olaf Scholz. They have absolutely no connections to the involved industry from their constituencies. No, not at all !
 
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Kiwigov

Member
I don't like this fixation on numbers. At least not those numbers. It matters imho little if Europe spends 1.x % or 2.x % on defense. What counts is the military capability. Here in Germany we could have done a lot better with more efficient structures, without spending one additional Euro.
Fair point, and the USA has consistently complained (possibly with some industrial base self-interest) that Euro defence budgets deliver much less 'bang for buck' than would reasonably be expected. Since the 1990s, small production runs of country-specific aircraft, tanks, ships (etc) have increased costs per unit. US SecDef Gates also noted the lack of war stocks during the Libyan intervention by RAF and French air force - from supposedly the more combat-capable countries - requiring USAF to provide!
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
One example from the list above. Additional K130 ? Seriously ? That's not money wisely spend. Already the second batch was only ordered to subsidize the involved shipyards.
Post-factum the 2nd batch is considered highly successful and a future model (namely: ordering off-the-shelf as extension of existing contracts instead of going through the costly, time-intensive new development) both by the Navy and by the procurement agency. It's the Navy that had the idea of a third batch to replace the first batch btw.

Fair point, and the USA has consistently complained (possibly with some industrial base self-interest) that Euro defence budgets deliver much less 'bang for buck' than would reasonably be expected.
The US dumps three times as much money per soldier relative to GDP into defense as European Union members, thus meaning much less cost-efficiency.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The US dumps three times as much money per soldier relative to GDP into defense as European Union members, thus meaning much less cost-efficiency.
I would argue that a major problem with US defence acquisition is the political system and the associated pork barrelling. I think another problem is the bureaucracy, a third the defence primes and a fourth the tendency to reach for lawyers at dawn at the drop of a hat.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
I find myself wondering if Wedgetails might eventually find themselves flying missions near Ukraine airspace.


The US DOD website seems to be implying it with an image of a Wedgetail. The Wedgetail proved to be extremely effective in previous deployments to the middle east and I have a feeling that if the US were to request an Australian asset then this aircraft would be pretty high on the list.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The US dumps three times as much money per soldier relative to GDP into defense as European Union members, thus meaning much less cost-efficiency.
Hardly a relevant comparative measure given the level of investment in technology that the US makes, and the breadth of their defence interest; not too many Europeans fly F22 or B21, are investing heavily in updating their nuclear systems, or are maintain a very significant space effort, amongst many other things.
 

Meriv

New Member
The priority IMHO in Europe is not in the big players (Ger,Fra,Ita,Spa) but in all the small ones that have a very very inefficient spending.

Slovenia,Slovakia,Romania, Bulgaria, etc... Etc...

If they had a common defense procurement, just the procurement, the level of efficiency would be greatly impacted.

Because fragmented as they are now they aren't that significant
 

swerve

Super Moderator
France, Germany, Italy & Spain account for more than the little countries. More people & more GDP, & if they all increased their spending to 2% it'd be more extra money than the little ones doing the same.
 
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