Future of the French/Russian Mistral LHDs

[Feanor]

But who would pay for that? Is Russia promising a couple of billion dollars a year in military aid, plus economic assistance - a package of $20 billion or so over the next few years with more to come? That's the minimum necessary - as a start. It'd have to be a credible offer, with the first few billion arriving immediately. Hard currency only.

The numbers aren't plucked out of the air. They're what Egypt is already getting, or is promised, & would lose if it moved into Russia's orbit. Without aid on that scale or greater Egypt wouldn't be interested.

Good question. Russia's current economic problems are a big deal. And the Saudis play a big role in that, by keeping the taps open. So financially speaking I don't see it happening either. They're having trouble financing regime priorities like the space program, infrastructural development, Crimea, and the military.

which will make the Iranians, Turks, Saudis, and to a lesser extent GCC pretty grumpy because its pretty transparent - and not achievable

Well it gets a bit complicated. If one gave Putin more credit, one might argue that he's dangling an impossibility in the hopes that Egypt will think that it can spend Saudi money on Russian toys, while pursuing an "independent" foreign policy. Third world regimes with aspirations for greatness have certainly done stupid things of this nature in the past. If one gave Putin less credit, one might argue that he's simply making a mistake.

Then again, Egypt is a buyer of Russian weapons, and has held talks about a Russian base there (though both sides later denied the talks, and it doesn't look like they reached anything close to an agreement). One could even turn this around and say that this may be Egypt's initiative, allowing it some foreign policy maneuver space, should it run afoul of the Saudis.

 

[Milne Bay]

Good question. Russia's current economic problems are a big deal. And the Saudis play a big role in that, by keeping the taps open. So financially speaking I don't see it happening either. They're having trouble financing regime priorities like the space program, infrastructural development, Crimea, and the military.



Well it gets a bit complicated. If one gave Putin more credit, one might argue that he's dangling an impossibility in the hopes that Egypt will think that it can spend Saudi money on Russian toys, while pursuing an "independent" foreign policy. Third world regimes with aspirations for greatness have certainly done stupid things of this nature in the past. If one gave Putin less credit, one might argue that he's simply making a mistake.

Then again, Egypt is a buyer of Russian weapons, and has held talks about a Russian base there (though both sides later denied the talks, and it doesn't look like they reached anything close to an agreement). One could even turn this around and say that this may be Egypt's initiative, allowing it some foreign policy maneuver space, should it run afoul of the Saudis.

It is a mistake to give Putin less credit I think. He has out-maneuvered the west several times and can read the weaknesses of his opponents rather well. What fascinates me is his ability to pop up pro-actively, and force his opponents into regularly being re-active.
What I don't know is whether he is opportunistic or has a plan that he is following.
This will make a wonderful history study one day
MB

 

[Ranger25]

It is a mistake to give Putin less credit I think. He has out-maneuvered the west several times and can read the weaknesses of his opponents rather well. What fascinates me is his ability to pop up pro-actively, and force his opponents into regularly being re-active.
What I don't know is whether he is opportunistic or has a plan that he is following.
This will make a wonderful history study one day
MB

Agreed, no doubt Putin has managed the West, especially the US president well into his plans. I think his grand plan is rather obvious IMO, rebuild the old Soviet geography and sphere of influence. Egypt would be his first natural move in the ME and the Mistrals play into his hand.
The wild card to me is the Saudi reaction and how tight a leash they can/try to keep on The Mistrals based on the cash they're providing.
In the immediate further is see them supporting Saudi/GCC ops in Yemen with one and Egyptian ops in the Sinai.

That said, I think Putin continues to retain the political initiative against the west in most theatres.

No doubt will be interesting to watch unfold,

 

[Volkodav]

Agreed, no doubt Putin has managed the West, especially the US president well into his plans. I think his grand plan is rather obvious IMO, rebuild the old Soviet geography and sphere of inclusive. Egypt would be his first natural move in the ME and the Mistrals play into his hand.
The wild card to me is the Saudi reaction and how tight a leash they can/try to keep on The Mistrals based on the cash they're providing.
In the immediate further is see them supporting Saudi/GCC ops in Yemen with one and Egyptian ops in the Sinai.

That said, I think Putin continues to retain the political initiative against the west in most theatres.

No doubt will be interesting to watch unfold,

Then again there may well be no Russian strings attached to the sale as they already had what they needed with the financial settlement as well as the transfer of expertise and IP.

 

[swerve]

Agreed, no doubt Putin has managed the West, especially the US president well into his plans. I think his grand plan is rather obvious IMO, rebuild the old Soviet geography and sphere of inclusive. Egypt would be his first natural move in the ME and the Mistrals play into his hand.
The wild card to me is the Saudi reaction and how tight a leash they can/try to keep on The Mistrals based on the cash they're providing.
In the immediate further is see them supporting Saudi/GCC ops in Yemen with one and Egyptian ops in the Sinai.

That said, I think Putin continues to retain the political initiative against the west in most theatres.

No doubt will be interesting to watch unfold,

He's successfully managed the west into a slump in the Russian economy, lots of Russian money wasted on military adventures, Russia needing to subsidise Crimea, & European countries (Russia's biggest customers) establishing alternative suppliers & routes for Russia's main exports.

He's been fairly good at tactics, but terrible at strategy. He picks pointless fights & wins Pyrrhic victories.

 

[Ranger25]

Then again there may well be no Russian strings attached to the sale as they already had what they needed with the financial settlement as well as the transfer of expertise and IP.

Volk
I agree, I think there will be no implicit strings attached, but the sale opens a new market for Russian goods to Egypt, the KA52s are the next piece. I see growing ME military customers as an additional means of building influence.

 

[gf0012-aust]

He's been fairly good at tactics, but terrible at strategy. He picks pointless fights & wins Pyrrhic victories.

punchline.....

 

[Feanor]

It is a mistake to give Putin less credit I think. He has out-maneuvered the west several times and can read the weaknesses of his opponents rather well. What fascinates me is his ability to pop up pro-actively, and force his opponents into regularly being re-active.
What I don't know is whether he is opportunistic or has a plan that he is following.
This will make a wonderful history study one day
MB

He also managed to out-maneuver himself on the Eastern Ukraine business. Outplayed by a collection of greedy nothings in Kiev. I think Volkodav may be right on this. The LHDs are built for Russian helos, Russia has good helos and a long history of selling helos that remain operational under 3rd world conditions. It makes sense from Egypt's side.

He's successfully managed the west into a slump in the Russian economy, lots of Russian money wasted on military adventures, Russia needing to subsidise Crimea, & European countries (Russia's biggest customers) establishing alternative suppliers & routes for Russia's main exports.

He's been fairly good at tactics, but terrible at strategy. He picks pointless fights & wins Pyrrhic victories.

It's a little more complex then that. He's won some very real victories (like shutting down Chechen independence, and the 888 war). He's also won some Pyrrhic ones like Crimea. And he's actually lost some like Eastern Ukraine. The slump in the Russian economy is in many ways linked to both western sanctions and the price of oil, but there are other things in the Russian economy which have done quite well under him. He's managed to revive Russian agriculture (Russian agricultural export is actually outperforming arms export by a significant margin), and it seems he has learned the lesson of investing into infrastructure (bridges, railroads, airports, even ordinary automobile roads). He's a better representative then the force-wielding oligarchical elite could hope for in Russia.

 

[Goknub]

I think a lot of ME nations will be looking for more Russian support from now on.

The West was quick to back the Arab Spring at the expense of existing regimes, particularly Egypt. Those that have survived will likely regard the West as unreliable and will increasingly hedge their bets. Even the Saudis will likely become more independent.

The Russians are still prepared to play the "they might be bastards, but at least they're our bastards" game harder than the current Western governments. I don't think much will change until at least a new US President is in power.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I think a lot of ME nations will be looking for more Russian support from now on.

I can see Russia and the ME having more goals in common. US oil production is hitting all of them hard, they feel marginalized.

The old regimes that used to get US and/or Russian support are only really now getting Russian support. They can still get equipment/advisers/intel. Western attempts to solve issues in the ME have spawned new and worse factions. Western commitments now seemed focused on aerial bombing of all sides, something that some regimes would fear more than Isis.

I think the US doesn't put as much of a priority in the ME as it used to. Fracking, renewable, alternatives I think have pointed that in 10 years time the ME may not be as important or wealthy as it is now and certainly not the control they had in the past.

The LHDs are built for Russian helos, Russia has good helos and a long history of selling helos that remain operational under 3rd world conditions. It makes sense from Egypt's side.

Russia I don't think will have much of an issue selling helicopters for these ships. I can't see them buying NH-90's.

 

[John Fedup]

Defense-aerospace is reporting a €250 million loss on the Mistral sale.

France Lost €250M On Mistral Resale – Senate Panel

 

[Blackshoe]

It's a little more complex then that. He's won some very real victories (like shutting down Chechen independence, and the 888 war). He's also won some Pyrrhic ones like Crimea. And he's actually lost some like Eastern Ukraine. The slump in the Russian economy is in many ways linked to both western sanctions and the price of oil, but there are other things in the Russian economy which have done quite well under him. He's managed to revive Russian agriculture (Russian agricultural export is actually outperforming arms export by a significant margin), and it seems he has learned the lesson of investing into infrastructure (bridges, railroads, airports, even ordinary automobile roads). He's a better representative then the force-wielding oligarchical elite could hope for in Russia.

Even Pyrrhic victories like Crimea and the Donbas are victories against NATO/The West.

Which is I think the broader strategy (such as there is one) for VVP-he is only aiming to fight the West. That is his only goal right now, so costs to Russia are irrelevant.

I reckon he's decided (probably about 2011 or so, in the run-up to the election-his tone got stridently more militant about the West-although I can't rule out that he's always believed this and just didn't end up acting this way) that they only threat he faces is the West. There's no domestic opposition to speak of (at least not a liberal Western one-I think there is a very real possibility of an even more reactionary element operating against Putin), and what there is he will imagine is a "Western invention", as he believes all domestic uprisings to be (cf his beliefs on Color Revolutions).

Thus, even if it costs Russia more...it's worth it to attack NATO/The West. And it's hard to disagree that if one focuses Russian actions on damage to NATO...that VVP has been spectacularly effective.

 

[Feanor]

Even Pyrrhic victories like Crimea and the Donbas are victories against NATO/The West.

Which is I think the broader strategy (such as there is one) for VVP-he is only aiming to fight the West. That is his only goal right now, so costs to Russia are irrelevant.

I reckon he's decided (probably about 2011 or so, in the run-up to the election-his tone got stridently more militant about the West-although I can't rule out that he's always believed this and just didn't end up acting this way) that they only threat he faces is the West. There's no domestic opposition to speak of (at least not a liberal Western one-I think there is a very real possibility of an even more reactionary element operating against Putin), and what there is he will imagine is a "Western invention", as he believes all domestic uprisings to be (cf his beliefs on Color Revolutions).

Thus, even if it costs Russia more...it's worth it to attack NATO/The West. And it's hard to disagree that if one focuses Russian actions on damage to NATO...that VVP has been spectacularly effective.

You really think that's the plan? It doesn't seem so, given the trade relations with the west, and the level of Russian integration into the global economy. Also there are significant other threats he faces including the spread of radical Islam in the south, and the potential economic problems at home. Remember Putin isn't a dictator. He's the representative of a certain upper class. He can be replaced if he screws up their power base. At the very least there would be some internal power struggle.

 

[swerve]

I can see Russia and the ME having more goals in common. US oil production is hitting all of them hard, they feel marginalized.

The old regimes that used to get US and/or Russian support are only really now getting Russian support. They can still get equipment/advisers/intel.

Being oil producers in a market which has got more crowded doesn't give them a common interest. The Saudis & some other Arabs are very low cost producers - Russia isn't. The Saudis are producing like mad to drive the price down, in the hope it'll kill high-cost production such as shale. That's hurting Russia - a lot.

How much aid is Russia giving those 'old regimes that used to get US ... support'? Egypt is getting USD1.3 billion in US military aid & $250 million in US economic aid this year, about the same as in every year since 2010. It used to get more economic aid, but the military aid has been at the same level for a long time. Jordan's getting a billion USD a year now, up from between $650 min & $850 mn a year for several years. Tunisia is getting a tripling of military aid, from a relatively low $60 mn last year. Economic aid has recently fluctuated between $66 mn & $189 mn. Morocco doesn't get much US aid - but it gets quite a lot from France, 62% of Morocco's total aid last year.

What's Russian doing to match that lot?

How much is Russia providing to help Syrian & Iraqi refugees? They're seen as a major problem, dangerously destabilising, by Jordan & Lebanon.

What about the supply of Russian weapons to Hezbollah? That's a direct threat to the Lebanese state - a state propped up by Saudi & other Gulf money, & armed by the USA. Where's Russian support for it, or Russian actions in the interest of the Arab states that have the aim of keeping Lebanon in being?

I don't see this Russian support. Apart from Syria, I see Russian commercial sales of weapons - just business.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I don't see this Russian support. Apart from Syria, I see Russian commercial sales of weapons - just business.

Which is what I mean by Russian support, although Russia seems to be throwing free airstrikes in with arms sales these days. Russia doesn't give away money, it doesn't have any money to give away. It has always struck favourable swap deals, agriculture, oil, weapons etc. Or perhaps working with your enemy to focus on someone else other than you.

The thing is the US does give money (much in military aid) but many see this as poor compensation for the money they have lost due to us fracking hurting the oil market. Aid also forms a type of dependency, if the us cuts aid to Egypt its not like they will be thankful for the many years of aid, just that it is no longer there.

Much is spoken about what a US victory would look like in the ME and if its even achievable. A Russian victory where countries are ruled by an iron oligarchy, buy russian weapons and have only small boarder skirmishes with long time adversaries seem much more obtainable.

At this stage if it means that the west won't have to get directly involved and it stops the refugees then who is going to stop them. I'm sure lots of countries are looking at what is happening to Syria and working out what is the best team to back to stop their regime from unravelling.

With Egypt fielding an expeditionary capability, Egypt will become a central player in any solution, Russian or American, in any action in the region.

 

[Feanor]

President Hollande, during a visit to some French shipyards, made a comment that their relationship with Russia is good, and he expects France to be selling new ships to France.

Is he trolling?

Да он, бл, издеваетÑÑ! - Берлога Бронемедведа

 

[swerve]

Which is what I mean by Russian support, although Russia seems to be throwing free airstrikes in with arms sales these days. Russia doesn't give away money, it doesn't have any money to give away. It has always struck favourable swap deals, agriculture, oil, weapons etc. Or perhaps working with your enemy to focus on someone else other than you.

The thing is the US does give money (much in military aid) but many see this as poor compensation for the money they have lost due to us fracking hurting the oil market..

What? US aid is poor compensation to Egypt for the USA producing its own oil & gas & thus pushing down oil prices, while Russian oil & gas production - & massive exports - don't register? Don't you see the contradiction in that?

Not that low oil prices are bad for Egypt anyway - rather the opposite, in fact. Egypt is no longer an oil exporter, & the lower the prices, the better for the Egyptian state, cutting the cost of subsidies. It exports some of its gas, but about 95% is consumed in Egypt. Arab =/ oil exporter.

And somehow, profit-seeking trade is seen as 'support'. Doh! Soviet 'favourable swap deals' were the result of a need for foreign currency due to being uncompetitive on world markets. Russia nowadays sells weapons successfully in competitive markets, & has no need of desperate measures to get hard currency. BTW, look up stories on Egyptian food imports. Russia (unlike the USA, Australia, Brazil etc.) figures in scandals about low-quality & tainted wheat, & fraudulent profits from collecting subsidies. Great support!

 

[StingrayOZ]

What? US aid is poor compensation to Egypt for the USA producing its own oil & gas & thus pushing down oil prices, while Russian oil & gas production - & massive exports - don't register? Don't you see the contradiction in that?

Indeed many contradictions. A good bad situation. Lower oil prices are very very good for helping the government budget and its subsidies program which uses up half the budget.

Falling oil prices both blessing, curse for Egypt - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

He added that there are also indirect negative effects as economies of the Gulf oil states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have been strongly supporting the Egyptian economy, will be strongly negatively affected. Their state budgets will take a hit, making these countries less able to maintain their foreign economic support. The demand for Egyptian labor and the Egyptian workers' remittances, by extension, will also drop.

Egypt is in a sensitive moment in time. Obviously Saudi and UAE are going to have significant influence on it, particularly when you think about which parts and people they would have influence on. Greater unemployment and less pay is not a good mix even if it does help their immediate budget problem. I guess the question is how much influence and support were they really giving Egypt, and what will happen if they can no longer afford that. They were caught earlier this year asking for $10b each from Saudi, UAE and Kuwait for the military. Egypt still believed they have more money than rice.
Egypt's president allegedly mocks Gulf wealth - BBC News

Worse for Egypt, Saudis and the UAE may soon have their very own problems.
Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles - Telegraph

So the Saudis paying for two pretty capable LHD's will keep the Navy and possibly the Army reasonably happy. Saudis get two new assets into the region and an army to operate off them (which is probably their number 1 concern), which appeases some in the military in Egypt, the Russians get a chance to "be involved" and possibly slide up closer to the Saudis (offer them free airstrikes?), train Egyptians and have something that may be useful for them at some point in the future. At least the ships didn't end up going to nato, Russia will be able to play this internally as a win for Putin and Russia.

Soon no one will sell weapons to the Saudis other than Russia. Saudis may use proxies like Egypt to get arms, and spares.

Its a mess. Of friendemies, tension, and issues.

 

[Feanor]

the Russians get a chance to "be involved" and possibly slide up closer to the Saudis (offer them free airstrikes?), train Egyptians and have something that may be useful for them at some point in the future. At least the ships didn't end up going to nato, Russia will be able to play this internally as a win for Putin and Russia.

Soon no one will sell weapons to the Saudis other than Russia. Saudis may use proxies like Egypt to get arms, and spares.

Its a mess. Of friendemies, tension, and issues.

What? Russia offer the Saudis air strikes? Come on. Be realistic for a moment here. Who would Russia be bombing? And why? Not to mention - what would Russian air power accomplish that Saudi air power can't? Saudi and Russia are almost enemies at this point. The entire situation in Syria puts them backing opposite parties in the war.

 

[swerve]

Soon no one will sell weapons to the Saudis other than Russia. Saudis may use proxies like Egypt to get arms, and spares.

Why?

Its a mess. Of friendemies, tension, and issues.

Absolutely right.