Future of russia defense industry?

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tphuang

Super Moderator
Vital said:
While we were discussing the future, Rosoboronexport have prepared a package of $4 billion package of contracts to sell our "Junk" to Algeria. It proves that out military hardware is still popular and up to date. :p:
well, to the poor countries, Russians' offer of advanced 4th generation fighters are still very welcoming. I'm sure Algeria can't afford the price tags on the latest F-16s and M2Ks.
 

chinawhite

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I was talking to some americans about this subject and were thinking about what the americans did after the collapse of the soviet union when those soviet scientist where left without jobs, We disscusssed the possiblity of russian scientist getting promises like a visa and good money to come to america, Paperclip two. your thinking on very different lines. Im thinking how is the russians going to compete like the Soviets did and your thinking something entirley different. What i know is that if the american goverment didn't get the russian scientist then the commerical market would have like microsoft beoing locheed martin would all have wanted those russian scientist

Here are russias former/current exporters.

China -China never wanted to import russian equipment and donest seem so in the future. Joint ventures unlikey but will build russian equipment

India-India wants a joint venture or russian technology. Have their own technology pool and wanting to produce their own equipment

Iran-Iran is building its own with production lines russian technology and technical assitance

Iraq-No brainer with this one

And other country i have mentioned is insinificant in the scheme of things. Malaysia wants 18 somthign Su-30s Vietnam wants 4. Ships are a no brainer to me since their main export destination was china and india.

Gollevainen said:
But exports are the one that is currently keeping Russian defence industry in business.
Exactually my point. No exports no development. As of now exports in russia number maybe 10-20billion. Think about what was actually needed in soviet times to build her ships making RnD prioties. At the height of the cold war Soviet expeniture was 170billion for arms and RnD and a good part of this for researching new equipment. The current russian defence budget is 20billion thats just enough to keep some of the navy some of the airforce and some money left over for other things.The russians make a good deal and always have a good price. This cuts profit margins somewhat which leaves less for RnD spending. Its simple logic to figure out that if russia is getting RnD money from exports and exports fail it will not get money

Now after the fall of the soviet union what new developments actually have happened that wasn't soviet based or new commerical technology the russians aquired?. The domestic industry is the one which susutains your growth and the exports and more money generators. Other countries which brought russian equipment dont want to just import equipment it wants to make it themselves, joint ventures or just use russian technology.The russians dont have a domestic supply of buyers. the russian military have all these plans reported in the press which dont come though. i'll give you examples underneath

if you would bother to look more deeply there have been multible of new projects errupted since 1990, but only handfull of these have entered any serious planning state and even fewer have materialized.Once a global blue water navy is now focusing on littorial units like this mentioned 2038, Lada class SSKs and tht new and neat border patrol boat.
Its got nothing to do with Soviet to russian doctrime. Heres what i am stating. The ussians are building all this soviet era equipment which has not got a moderized version. All the weapons on ship the radar systesm are soviet era or soviet derived with western technology. Yes it might be a new design but they are still using old weapons. Funding covettes for your navy is not going to make a profit in which you can spend on RnD.

Yes russia is designing this covette but it has company in the likes of china, france, US, britian. all those ship building nations. Russia like i said beforehand has trouble paying its soldiers and the funds it does get are in the form of hard currency. The higher end navies of the west buy westernies and it is agaienst NATO regulations to buy russian equipment. That leaves us with the lower scale of the market place where countries like China and india have a advantage because they are not looking for the best capability but are looking for the best price. The russians on one hand accept hard currency and the other china which accepts bater trades which are more economical for a poorer nation like a african nation or a south american nation.

What ever happened to the Amur class?. One got built then got scraped? Countries that buy submarines buy them more for capability then for the cheap price tag. They usually buy the best they can get a hold of. The Amur in my opinoin doesn't fit any of the ceritas. Its not cheap its less capable and from reports i have read not that advanced either.

This is the future not the present numbers. Russia might still be a powerhouse in exporting to other nations now because other countries dont have those capabilties but when you steadly give other countries no how they will expand themselves. And combine that with lack of russian investment you ahve a situation

But unlike in the post-revolution era, russian defence industry hasent been wrecked by its know-how Russia will take in world policyes, its going to need strong armed forces, and modern ones.
I do not believe in the re-rise of russia. they are not a manufracturing society but just one where people sells there good to. eg

China buys russian resources. china makes the finished product and sells it back to russia for a larger price. With military development goes hand in hand with economic development. During the last 7 years russias economy has only risen by resources and a big piece of that is because of gold prices and the war in iraq and increasing oil pices. Its not done anything to the service sector its manufracturing sector. Ill give you a idea of how small the russian economy is. This is in nominal figures here and source is IMF

— European Union 12,865,602
1 United States 11,734,300
2 Japan 4,671,198
3 Germany 2,754,727
4 United Kingdom 2,133,019
5 France 2,046,292
6 People's Republic of China 1,830,000
7 Italy 1,680,112
8 Canada 1,092,422
9 Spain 1,041,338
10 South Korea 680,409
11 Mexico 675,254
12 India 665,071
13 Australia 618,021
14 Netherlands 607,531
15 Brazil 603,783
16 Russia 581,783

Just gives you a idea of what each nation can spend on defence

you cannot expect russia solely dominate one potential market area. Its not how the global capitalism works.
Arms trades are not dictated by market practices or capitalism:p:

Its all about polictical infuence in the region and your global reach. Even though russian equipment outperforms other equipment by some margin it still wont be selected because its russia. Its not looking about Brang for the bruck. And in the other regions they wouldn't have enough money to spend to buy new equipment. Theres only a limited pace where russia can sell its equipment. Its not the soviet era where it had its sphere of influence. It doesn't have that reach nor the money and power which came with it. The countries russia did export to were poor third world nations which couldn't afford to buy the best and did it though barter trades. Or were the pre-axis of evil countries of the evil empire like regan like to call it.

These countries like algeria or syria are extremely poor and i dont imangine them sustaining the russian growth nor do i see the government government rising defence spening by 6% a year

And when Russia comes up whit something totally new that China hasent copyed yet, it can sell it to them so the next chinese look-alike equivalent can be born. China has still lot to do to become a equalent participant in the top devolpers of military innovations.
Just like russia did during the cold war to western equipment. Well, according to my memory china was turing out more engineers than the US, Im not going to bother going though why china copied equipment beforehand but you can reason yourself in the western dominace thread.

I highly doubt china will build a russian design under license but incorpated new ideas into our own equipment. If you want you know a recent example of china actually copying russian equipment mention it now

F-16As of the European NATO, thats a fleet need of replacement, F-35 particularry and i expect that at least 25% of them finds new home in some other airforce.
So ?. Im betting the 2000 or so F-16s produced will eventually find themselves in some third world airforce.

EDIT:I want you to name the russian export destinations in the future and the potnetional buys/buyers
 
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chinawhite

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aaaditya said:
india is looking at the russian amur submarines
Is it me or were they rejected in favour of the scropene submarines?. Because i am 99% sure they were. 6 submarines wont be replacng the kilos because they are just coming or going to a refit to add the klud missile. So its the "ATV" rumoured akula purcahses kilos some foxtrots and now the armur submainre with full TOT?. sounds kinda full to me

india and russia have signed an agreement
That was a 30year friendship treaty which was fore a one billion a year thing. But anhow the MRCA deal with 8billion and the carrier and the T-90 in the 2000-2010 period already exceeds it quite a bit

india has also commited itself to joint developments of a fifth generation combat aircraft with russia
The smaller version is called the MCA which was ment to play the small area while the PAK-FA which is suppose to be a F-22 class aircraft is suppose to be the bigger one. like the F-22 F-35 combination
 

ajaybhutani

New Member
chinawhite said:
Is it me or were they rejected in favour of the scropene submarines?. Because i am 99% sure they were. 6 submarines wont be replacng the kilos because they are just coming or going to a refit to add the klud missile. So its the "ATV" rumoured akula purcahses kilos some foxtrots and now the armur submainre with full TOT?. sounds kinda full to me



That was a 30year friendship treaty which was fore a one billion a year thing. But anhow the MRCA deal with 8billion and the carrier and the T-90 in the 2000-2010 period already exceeds it quite a bit



The smaller version is called the MCA which was ment to play the small area while the PAK-FA which is suppose to be a F-22 class aircraft is suppose to be the bigger one. like the F-22 F-35 combination
1. T90 deal is over.. whats in line is the competitive trials between arjun and T90's. to satisfy IA that the tank is good nough.. If arjun fails again then comes the chances of more T90.. either case didnt the last purchase cover ToT?
2. the long term plan for navy for deisel submarines is to see the good of both west and east.. so scorpene, a good posiblity of upgrading U209,and again if money is left ( might be with the growin economy).. then amur.. and then good indigeneous subs with the good from them all. its about money and availability of western tech. wether we will purchase amur outright or we purchase the technology instead..
3. theses a good possibility the russia wont get the MRCA deal..but yes there are a lot of things to cover up the 1 B $ a year figure.. like smerch rockets, the new frigades( much more than a B $). does this figure include the join production too.. like brahmos ??
4. as for PAK-Fa things are getting too much speculate.. lemme speculate a big too. :D .. since airframe design of PAK-Fa is over and indians wanted to learn from scratch.. so maybe the idea of second smaller version came up... whose airframe will be funded by india completely( it could be a MCA.. but of course both this new plane and MCA wont survive together..).. and of course partial funding by india in other stuff.. i believe the radar is already funded..( the joint venture for 160 M $.. more money shud go thru that route.. )..
its a win win condition for russia.. as then it will also get a fighter it can sell outside too ..( but again like brahmos this plane can only be sold to common good firends).. while the original PAK-FA can be sold by russia to china etc .. but will they..
what i dont like is that kaveri will be dead then.. as it will only be produced for LCA.. and no more
of course this is all but a speculation..
 

ajaybhutani

New Member
chinawhite said:
I was talking to some americans about this subject and were thinking about what the americans did after the collapse of the soviet union when those soviet scientist where left without jobs, We disscusssed the possiblity of russian scientist getting promises like a visa and good money to come to america, Paperclip two. your thinking on very different lines. Im thinking how is the russians going to compete like the Soviets did and your thinking something entirley different. What i know is that if the american goverment didn't get the russian scientist then the commerical market would have like microsoft beoing locheed martin would all have wanted those russian scientist

Here are russias former/current exporters.

China -China never wanted to import russian equipment and donest seem so in the future. Joint ventures unlikey but will build russian equipment

India-India wants a joint venture or russian technology. Have their own technology pool and wanting to produce their own equipment

Iran-Iran is building its own with production lines russian technology and technical assitance

Iraq-No brainer with this one

And other country i have mentioned is insinificant in the scheme of things. Malaysia wants 18 somthign Su-30s Vietnam wants 4. Ships are a no brainer to me since their main export destination was china and india.



Exactually my point. No exports no development. As of now exports in russia number maybe 10-20billion. Think about what was actually needed in soviet times to build her ships making RnD prioties. At the height of the cold war Soviet expeniture was 170billion for arms and RnD and a good part of this for researching new equipment. The current russian defence budget is 20billion thats just enough to keep some of the navy some of the airforce and some money left over for other things.The russians make a good deal and always have a good price. This cuts profit margins somewhat which leaves less for RnD spending. Its simple logic to figure out that if russia is getting RnD money from exports and exports fail it will not get money

Now after the fall of the soviet union what new developments actually have happened that wasn't soviet based or new commerical technology the russians aquired?. The domestic industry is the one which susutains your growth and the exports and more money generators. Other countries which brought russian equipment dont want to just import equipment it wants to make it themselves, joint ventures or just use russian technology.The russians dont have a domestic supply of buyers. the russian military have all these plans reported in the press which dont come though. i'll give you examples underneath



Its got nothing to do with Soviet to russian doctrime. Heres what i am stating. The ussians are building all this soviet era equipment which has not got a moderized version. All the weapons on ship the radar systesm are soviet era or soviet derived with western technology. Yes it might be a new design but they are still using old weapons. Funding covettes for your navy is not going to make a profit in which you can spend on RnD.

Yes russia is designing this covette but it has company in the likes of china, france, US, britian. all those ship building nations. Russia like i said beforehand has trouble paying its soldiers and the funds it does get are in the form of hard currency. The higher end navies of the west buy westernies and it is agaienst NATO regulations to buy russian equipment. That leaves us with the lower scale of the market place where countries like China and india have a advantage because they are not looking for the best capability but are looking for the best price. The russians on one hand accept hard currency and the other china which accepts bater trades which are more economical for a poorer nation like a african nation or a south american nation.

What ever happened to the Amur class?. One got built then got scraped? Countries that buy submarines buy them more for capability then for the cheap price tag. They usually buy the best they can get a hold of. The Amur in my opinoin doesn't fit any of the ceritas. Its not cheap its less capable and from reports i have read not that advanced either.

This is the future not the present numbers. Russia might still be a powerhouse in exporting to other nations now because other countries dont have those capabilties but when you steadly give other countries no how they will expand themselves. And combine that with lack of russian investment you ahve a situation



I do not believe in the re-rise of russia. they are not a manufracturing society but just one where people sells there good to. eg

China buys russian resources. china makes the finished product and sells it back to russia for a larger price. With military development goes hand in hand with economic development. During the last 7 years russias economy has only risen by resources and a big piece of that is because of gold prices and the war in iraq and increasing oil pices. Its not done anything to the service sector its manufracturing sector. Ill give you a idea of how small the russian economy is. This is in nominal figures here and source is IMF

— European Union 12,865,602
1 United States 11,734,300
2 Japan 4,671,198
3 Germany 2,754,727
4 United Kingdom 2,133,019
5 France 2,046,292
6 People's Republic of China 1,830,000
7 Italy 1,680,112
8 Canada 1,092,422
9 Spain 1,041,338
10 South Korea 680,409
11 Mexico 675,254
12 India 665,071
13 Australia 618,021
14 Netherlands 607,531
15 Brazil 603,783
16 Russia 581,783

Just gives you a idea of what each nation can spend on defence



Arms trades are not dictated by market practices or capitalism:p:

Its all about polictical infuence in the region and your global reach. Even though russian equipment outperforms other equipment by some margin it still wont be selected because its russia. Its not looking about Brang for the bruck. And in the other regions they wouldn't have enough money to spend to buy new equipment. Theres only a limited pace where russia can sell its equipment. Its not the soviet era where it had its sphere of influence. It doesn't have that reach nor the money and power which came with it. The countries russia did export to were poor third world nations which couldn't afford to buy the best and did it though barter trades. Or were the pre-axis of evil countries of the evil empire like regan like to call it.

These countries like algeria or syria are extremely poor and i dont imangine them sustaining the russian growth nor do i see the government government rising defence spening by 6% a year



Just like russia did during the cold war to western equipment. Well, according to my memory china was turing out more engineers than the US, Im not going to bother going though why china copied equipment beforehand but you can reason yourself in the western dominace thread.

I highly doubt china will build a russian design under license but incorpated new ideas into our own equipment. If you want you know a recent example of china actually copying russian equipment mention it now



So ?. Im betting the 2000 or so F-16s produced will eventually find themselves in some third world airforce.

EDIT:I want you to name the russian export destinations in the future and the potnetional buys/buyers
possible purchases
india more planes..( mig35), more rockets..like smerch, more ships, talwar, nuclear subs,possibly more tanks etc.
china more planes, more subs(klub and in future maybe amur), more destroyers, etc..
malaysia right now its su30MKM so good possibility for more planes in future and surely missiles etc..
cant sell to iran for the time being due to the problems around.
recently a deal was signed with an african country for 40 mig29s. with options for 20 more.
and then there are joint developments for export like brahmos, future developments in line like ultra long range missile KF172, ramjet versions of R77.. which countries like india,chian,malaysia will purhase. PAK-FA and possibly a smaller version( may or may not be as good as f22/f35 but surely will come at a lower price.).

russia's main customers are china and india and still in the naval front theres a lot that these two big economies can purchase.. and if russia can keep up pace in technology theres a lot of money flowing in in the future too.
The cold war days are over and theres no doubt that russia what it used to be.. but it still has a lot of potential as a weapons seller.

about money problem... i guess joint development is surely gonna help reduce that problem..
about the GDP figures .. please note that the figures posted by you are not current and again the are real GDP.. they dont represnt the purchasing power.. PPP figures are equally important.. where does russia stand in PPP?
 

aaaditya

New Member
chinawhite said:
Is it me or were they rejected in favour of the scropene submarines?. Because i am 99% sure they were. 6 submarines wont be replacng the kilos because they are just coming or going to a refit to add the klud missile. So its the "ATV" rumoured akula purcahses kilos some foxtrots and now the armur submainre with full TOT?. sounds kinda full to me



That was a 30year friendship treaty which was fore a one billion a year thing. But anhow the MRCA deal with 8billion and the carrier and the T-90 in the 2000-2010 period already exceeds it quite a bit



The smaller version is called the MCA which was ment to play the small area while the PAK-FA which is suppose to be a F-22 class aircraft is suppose to be the bigger one. like the F-22 F-35 combination
india's original plans were to acquire 30 submarines of a single type known as the type 75 but now it has been changed (single vendor system is no longer allowed).

india now wants to set up two submarine lines(india currently operates 3 types of submarines) of which the scorpene will be manufactured by the navy and the amur will be maufactured by the l and t and keml at hazira(the docking facilities are already set up).

the scorpene was selected as opposed to the hdw214 .

one advantage in favour of the amur is its ability to carry and fire the brahmos ,i can be customised to indian requirements with fuel cells and choice of weapons and sensors.

well if you divide 30 years by3 you get 10 years and multiply that by 1 billion dollars and you get 10 billion dollars/per decade.however the indo-russia defence agreement needs to be ratified after every 10 years period during which period the two nations also identify indian defence requirements taking into consideration the potential threats nad decide wether the weapons can be acquired outright with tot or can be jointly produced.

russia will always have firm customer in india.

recently they sold smerch rocket launchers to kuwait,and are the frontrunners to sell turkey 200 attack helicopters(the ka50 series equipped with israeli avionics and weapons),the russian inductry is most likely to grow and expand now that they are giving more attention to quality of their products and after sales service.
 

aaaditya

New Member
chinawhite said:
Is it me or were they rejected in favour of the scropene submarines?. Because i am 99% sure they were. 6 submarines wont be replacng the kilos because they are just coming or going to a refit to add the klud missile. So its the "ATV" rumoured akula purcahses kilos some foxtrots and now the armur submainre with full TOT?. sounds kinda full to me



That was a 30year friendship treaty which was fore a one billion a year thing. But anhow the MRCA deal with 8billion and the carrier and the T-90 in the 2000-2010 period already exceeds it quite a bit



The smaller version is called the MCA which was ment to play the small area while the PAK-FA which is suppose to be a F-22 class aircraft is suppose to be the bigger one. like the F-22 F-35 combination
the atv's will most probably be built at the south indian town of vizag.
so either way you see three submarine types will be available to the indian navy.

india is not purchasing the akula's but are acquiring them on lease for a 10 year period to train the crews(like they did with the charlie class) after which they would be returned to russia.

mca is a totally indigenou project being developed by the hal and ada(as a twin engined stealthy medium weight variant of the lca)intended to replace the jaguars.
the mca has nothing to do with pak-fa lite and is an independet effort by the hal and ada.

the requirements for pak-fa lite were handed over by the iaf and calls for a lighter single engine ,low cost version of either the t-50 or a mig design,russia favours the lighter ,single engine version of the existing pakfa.
 

ajaybhutani

New Member
aaaditya said:
the atv's will most probably be built at the south indian town of vizag.
so either way you see three submarine types will be available to the indian navy.

india is not purchasing the akula's but are acquiring them on lease for a 10 year period to train the crews(like they did with the charlie class) after which they would be returned to russia.

mca is a totally indigenou project being developed by the hal and ada(as a twin engined stealthy medium weight variant of the lca)intended to replace the jaguars.
the mca has nothing to do with pak-fa lite and is an independet effort by the hal and ada.

the requirements for pak-fa lite were handed over by the iaf and calls for a lighter single engine ,low cost version of either the t-50 or a mig design,russia favours the lighter ,single engine version of the existing pakfa.
there are certain things that questions that we need to ask ourselves..
1. can india support two developments PAk-FA (/lite) and MCA( i believe most of us will agree its no.)
2. economically it makes a lot of sense to make a smaller single engine version.. with most avionics shared.. but that surely hurts indegenous engine development .. if we change the engine too to a lighter version.. then its more or less a different project all together..
the main reason why russians want india in is money for PAK-Fa.So russia will expect india to invest a lot in avionics esp radar and .. since most money would have already been invested in PAK-FA airframe and engine a lot less will be needed .. its avionics where indian money can flow in faster.
The main consideration thus is are we ready to invest large amounts of money in kaveri.. ( or an engine replacing it.. as it makes more sense for india to have the new engine capable of being fitted in LCA too. )...or go for single AL41 engine....
its all about how much money we have.. the russians wont mind another engine if they dont have to invest in it..
 

Gollevainen

the corporal
Verified Defense Pro
chinawhite said:
Exactually my point. No exports no development. As of now exports in russia number maybe 10-20billion. Think about what was actually needed in soviet times to build her ships making RnD prioties. At the height of the cold war Soviet expeniture was 170billion for arms and RnD and a good part of this for researching new equipment. The current russian defence budget is 20billion thats just enough to keep some of the navy some of the airforce and some money left over for other things.The russians make a good deal and always have a good price. This cuts profit margins somewhat which leaves less for RnD spending. Its simple logic to figure out that if russia is getting RnD money from exports and exports fail it will not get money
But In Soviet ages the military build up was totally incomprehensive, it was too much to any economy to take, I think Russia will eventually balance up in the similar levels than Biggest EU members...

Now after the fall of the soviet union what new developments actually have happened that wasn't soviet based or new commerical technology the russians aquired?.
Lots of them, its not my burden to give examples. Many of them are desings still in desing board in Soviet days but now have envolped into reality, and still remain best of their shop in the whole world, eq S-400, Club...

This claim of western based technology in modern Russian systems, I would like to hear more....

The domestic industry is the one which susutains your growth and the exports and more money generators. Other countries which brought russian equipment dont want to just import equipment it wants to make it themselves, joint ventures or just use russian technology.The russians dont have a domestic supply of buyers. the russian military have all these plans reported in the press which dont come though. i'll give you examples underneath
Like I said, i beleive in Russian rising to some sort of balance, idications of it are already in the air, then the domestic need rises and the industry will boost up. In the end this guestion is pretty much related to Russian state in general.



Its got nothing to do with Soviet to russian doctrime. Heres what i am stating. The ussians are building all this soviet era equipment which has not got a moderized version. All the weapons on ship the radar systesm are soviet era or soviet derived with western technology. Yes it might be a new design but they are still using old weapons. Funding covettes for your navy is not going to make a profit in which you can spend on RnD.
The 2038 is completely new desing, tailor made for new russian requirments and whit NEW weapons not aviable in the Soviet days. Youre totally ignoring its importance...

Yes russia is designing this covette but it has company in the likes of china, france, US, britian. all those ship building nations. Russia like i said beforehand has trouble paying its soldiers and the funds it does get are in the form of hard currency. The higher end navies of the west buy westernies and it is agaienst NATO regulations to buy russian equipment. That leaves us with the lower scale of the market place where countries like China and india have a advantage because they are not looking for the best capability but are looking for the best price. The russians on one hand accept hard currency and the other china which accepts bater trades which are more economical for a poorer nation like a african nation or a south american nation.
In export field that exavctly is a good thing for russian current capasity and unlike yuo think, this field will become wider, as new third-world nations evolp into better economyes but still anti-western.

What ever happened to the Amur class?. One got built then got scraped? Countries that buy submarines buy them more for capability then for the cheap price tag. They usually buy the best they can get a hold of. The Amur in my opinoin doesn't fit any of the ceritas. Its not cheap its less capable and from reports i have read not that advanced either.
Amur was launched last year or year before and its currently serving in Baltic fleet. I would like to see your prooves that it lacks in the capapilityes as I have heard totally opposite.

This is the future not the present numbers. Russia might still be a powerhouse in exporting to other nations now because other countries dont have those capabilties but when you steadly give other countries no how they will expand themselves. And combine that with lack of russian investment you ahve a situation
But other markets will rose or Russian economyes will evolp into better this is a thread anout futre am I rigth?

I do not believe in the re-rise of russia. they are not a manufracturing society but just one where people sells there good to. eg
well basicly that makes this whole deapte useless, dont you think? You want to beleive so and thus the facts migth seem easily fitting to that thinking, but its not the case. Maybe we should focus on more of russian general political situation before we can jump into conclusions by little practical examples?

China buys russian resources. china makes the finished product and sells it back to russia for a larger price. With military development goes hand in hand with economic development. During the last 7 years russias economy has only risen by resources and a big piece of that is because of gold prices and the war in iraq and increasing oil pices. Its not done anything to the service sector its manufracturing sector. Ill give you a idea of how small the russian economy is. This is in nominal figures here and source is IMF

— European Union 12,865,602
1 United States 11,734,300
2 Japan 4,671,198
3 Germany 2,754,727
4 United Kingdom 2,133,019
5 France 2,046,292
6 People's Republic of China 1,830,000
7 Italy 1,680,112
8 Canada 1,092,422
9 Spain 1,041,338
10 South Korea 680,409
11 Mexico 675,254
12 India 665,071
13 Australia 618,021
14 Netherlands 607,531
15 Brazil 603,783
16 Russia 581,783

Just gives you a idea of what each nation can spend on defence
but then again the idea is that how russian defence industry finds it place in the cahnged requirments. And how well the Russian economy can devolp. Why dont you dig up numbers of those countryes economical growth rates (and that table there doesent tell me shit before you add some info about what those numbers are, are they GDP figures, trade?? As a hint, just name of the country and some irrelevant numbers doesent make you look smart)

Just like russia did during the cold war to western equipment. Well, according to my memory china was turing out more engineers than the US, Im not going to bother going though why china copied equipment beforehand but you can reason yourself in the western dominace thread.
Soviets migth have done so also, who cares. I remain in my position that China cannot be par whit the others when the next generations appears. Its not related to level of graduated engineers. Its more complex issue, mostly related to acceptance of innovation if you want to relate it to single matters.

I highly doubt china will build a russian design under license but incorpated new ideas into our own equipment. If you want you know a recent example of china actually copying russian equipment mention it now
Well figure out yourselve some new chinese military equipment that is totally indegenious and basis for only domestic weapond evolution in its desings, and You get my answer there.

China is growing, yes i understand that and Im almoust obligated to beleive so due my role in sinodefence, but No one can deny that past misschieves are still aburden to Chinise military build up, expecially when it comes to domestic production evolpment. Thatswhy solely i believe that China cannot be par whit others in devolping next generations of military hard-ware.

And there Russians triumph, that evolpment chain isent totally destructed



I want you to name the russian export destinations in the future and the potnetional buys/buyers
Just my honest obinion?

1.South America, all the states following Venezuelas path. The area is poor, but potential, as long as the nations can devolp out from the opressed role of cheap labor into truely domestical market area. Chavez is the key as well as the dude taking Castro's position after his death.

2. Indonesia, Burma, Vietnam, Bangladesh, all asian smaller economyes whit out deep commitmences to other supplyers. And basicly all thats rising.

3. Iran&middle east. There is always strong anti-western attitude and factor present, Who knows what forms it gains when Saudis finally kick out Americans away.

4. Old customers, India and China, thougth not so strongly dependaple but not all areas they can be selfinsuficient. Also there is the prospects of Shanghai co-operation pact and its evolpment into full scale military alligment. It will bring commitments to will support Russian weapon industryes.

5. Domestic need. Russia hassupraisingly well recovered from its fall, and now slovly they have hit the bottom (or are about to hit it) and slowly beguns to rise. Your glooming ideas of Russian extinction isent just biting me...

6. And when the levee breaks and US/EU will tremple and fall as all hegemonies have done, the sky is only limit.
 

chinawhite

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #51
aaaditya said:
the scorpene will be manufactured by the navy and the amur will be maufactured by the l and t and keml at hazira(the docking facilities are already set up).
Do you have confirmation about this?. Indians do spread a lot of rumours like ATV Akula submainres backfires and at one time Mig-1.42 production as reported by a indian newspaper in 2003. Is this confirmed about the Amur submainres or is this just forum chit chat?. Because the last word i heard was about the russian amur getting trashed for bad build quailty. that is the first one built.

India has about 10kilo submainres which are going/coming back from a moderization which allows them to fire Klub missiles which are more effective on a submainres considering its size

i can be customised to indian requirements with fuel cells and choice of weapons and sensors.
In reailty it would probaly have western sensors and western fuel cell, plus the option of russia willing to give india the source codes for launching the missile from the scropene submainre. The amur comes at a disadvatnage because of its extremely small size. One amur could hold about 10maximum brahmos missiles(this is just off my head) but it wouldn't be a patrol submainre but be limited to the coast

recently they sold smerch rocket launchers to kuwait,and are the frontrunners to sell turkey 200 attack helicopters
Highly unlikey that russia would win simply because turkey is a US ally and uses US only equipment. Also the T-80U was entered in a tank competition and lost not because it was less capable or expensive but because of polictics just like how the F-15 was chosen over the EF and rafale in singapore because it was againest polictics.

The smerch is the BM-30 which is a MLRS which is cheap compared to otehr ground equipent like tanks. This is true because the BM-30 surpasses the west in sheer weight of rocket power and at a relativly cheap price compared to their western counterparts. No big lost there seeing as how the rusians have never been in the lucrative middle eastern buiness where big is beautiful

aaaditya said:
the atv's will most probably be built at the south indian town of vizag. india is not purchasing the akula's but are acquiring them on lease for a 10 year period to train the crews
Well the fabled ATV is nothing more than a rumour as of now. On forum chit chat its just the akula II made in india. check BR for that. I do understand that it is for leasing but i would imagine training in russia would be better than having your own akulas unless they were akulas. Do you have any informatio on the ATV that would be useful, i got all the information from global and BR but anything different?

mca is a totally indigenou project being developed by the hal and ada(as a twin engined stealthy medium weight variant of the lca)intended to replace the jaguars.
Repalce jaguars with this?. I have seen the pre-designs of this posted by harrison and no way will this be intended as a first role ground attack aircraft. Firstly its two small its suppose to be one crew and its a delta wing aircraft. A delta is completey unmanuverble at low speeds and espically at low altitudes. While if the MCA is just a enlarged LCA it will be small to carry a decent payload

russia favours the lighter ,single engine version of the existing pakfa.
Unlikey. russia rejected project 33 and a verision of the Su-47 simply because they were one engined. Its about reliability of the aircraft that matters to them. thats why the Mig-29 isn't a single engined plane thats why the Su-27 isn't a singled engined plane
 

ajaybhutani

New Member
Unlikey. russia rejected project 33 and a verision of the Su-47 simply because they were one engined. Its about reliability of the aircraft that matters to them. thats why the Mig-29 isn't a single engined plane thats why the Su-27 isn't a singled engined plane
thats because the russians were engines were known to wear and tear faster.. they had compromised engine life for thrust.. so with increased probability for engine failure it makes more sense to have a a twin engined jet as that can save the plane.. easily..
 

chinawhite

New Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #53
Gollevainen said:
But In Soviet ages the military build up was totally incomprehensive, it was too much to any economy to take, I think Russia will eventually balance up in the similar levels than Biggest EU members...
The soviet economy was growing faster ad was alot larger than the current russian economy. Right now it sells cheap oil and gas for influence in central asia and the recent crsis between unkranie and russia were over gas prices. In the soviet era development would come with cost. without money(like the current situation) there is no innovation. I believe in what JFK said. not exact quote "It will work if theres enough money". thats not it but the general idea is clear. the Soviet spent likes say 100billion on military RnD and it led to breakthoughs because every idea that could be made into a weapon was amde into a weapon. now the russians dont have that luxury to experiemnet and thats why there are lack of innovation

Lots of them, its not my burden to give examples. Many of them are desings still in desing board in Soviet days but now have envolped into reality, and still remain best of their shop in the whole world, eq S-400, Club
The Klub is a remodeled shipwreak and the S-400 is a S-300 with a different motor and a fire control system. This just proves my point exactly. These are branded as new objects but derived from soviet era weapons. The Klub has so many names fro marketing its not funny. The new planes russia has made are just revamped soviet designs. Su-35 are soviet TVC is also soviet

This claim of western based technology in modern Russian systems, I would like to hear more.
Firstly the MFD were western imports and at the time russia did not have this technology. And theres processing pwoer to pwoer this new soviet desgins. The chip on the R-37 was derived from a old style pentium chip which i was told came from germany to russia. Im not sure the state of soviet era electrics but it was sure vacum technology on the Mig-25


The 2038 is completely new desing, tailor made for new russian requirments and whit NEW weapons not aviable in the Soviet days. Youre totally ignoring its importance...
Klub has already been mentioned and the Kh-35 is a soviet era weapon. I would also imagine that the engine technology is also russian derived. I didn't ignore anything

as new third-world nations evolp into better economyes but still anti-western.
Not every third world nation hates america. During the cld war america inlfuenced alot more third world countries than russia. Its just because russias allies were the bad boys in the western world

Amur was launched last year or year before and its currently serving in Baltic fleet. I would like to see your prooves that it lacks in the capapilityes as I have heard totally opposite.
I am sure someone made a quite convincing post why the Amur was not in service. Im still wondering this since i have not red reports of it being in service before. In capabilites yes. Being a small submainre can only hold a limited amount of missiels and fuel. This comment was for the indians purchase because of their need for a Fleet submainre for long endurance patrols and a Amur offers little capabilty in that matter

Maybe we should focus on more of russian general political situation before we can jump into conclusions by little practical examples?
Id rather focus on the figures and not get into russian polictics but the general direction of the russian economy and thier growth areas and potentioal growth. You dont need to understnad polictics for that one


As a hint, just name of the country and some irrelevant numbers doesent make you look smart
neither does giving finnish examples.:rolleyes: . If you do the maths a economy growing at 2-3% and is about 4-5 times larger and one growing at 6 % it is going to take ages for this to come back on par espically since the gigger economy does not stall


I remain in my position that China cannot be par whit the others when the next generations appears. Its not related to level of graduated engineers. Its more complex issue, mostly related to acceptance of innovation if you want to relate it to single matters.
But with funding comes innovatoin. chinese engineers had all these wonderful plans in the 60s 70s 80s unitl now how to design future aircraft but were limited by risk and money thats why no inovation occured. Just look at the J-9 fighter the chinese tank with a engine in the front. There was no lack of inovation but lack of will and funding. wheres soviet engineers had the luxury of pursuing their dreams to make weapons and also the americans


Thatswhy solely i believe that China cannot be par whit others in devolping next generations of military hard-ware.
You have to figure out the conditions chinese engineers were under when they designed the equipment. less risk apporch on a proven platform.

And your opinoin i will get to tommorrow since its nearing mid-night now
 

Gollevainen

the corporal
Verified Defense Pro
The soviet economy was growing faster ad was alot larger than the current russian economy. Right now it sells cheap oil and gas for influence in central asia and the recent crsis between unkranie and russia were over gas prices. In the soviet era development would come with cost. without money(like the current situation) there is no innovation. I believe in what JFK said. not exact quote "It will work if theres enough money". thats not it but the general idea is clear. the Soviet spent likes say 100billion on military RnD and it led to breakthoughs because every idea that could be made into a weapon was amde into a weapon. now the russians dont have that luxury to experiemnet and thats why there are lack of innovation
and in the end, the soviet build up was over rated and destructive to any economy. Russian industy is currently par whit the economical today, and ready for brigther future.

The Klub is a remodeled shipwreak
hmmm...as it is childish to mock someones ignorence, i will not venture that road. There are many things that i don't know, so it's no shame. Im' saying this as polite as possiple, are you sure? Mean really really sure? Would you bet your life for it?:.....p: ;) :cool: :rolleyes:


Id rather focus on the figures and not get into russian polictics but the general direction of the russian economy and thier growth areas and potentioal growth. You dont need to understnad polictics for that one
Yes i know you would rather stick whit numbers as they can so easily back your claims, but to get better idea of some thing so complex as future of russian defence policy, we cannot achieve nothing if we ignore the Russian political situation. Economics are politics, politics are economy...dialectic meterialism, you know.


Not every third world nation hates america. During the cld war america inlfuenced alot more third world countries than russia. Its just because russias allies were the bad boys in the western world
And what does the Soviet/US division of ienfluence have anything to do whit future Russian export policy?? Those who hate america or simply want to left alone from their imperialism, have to choose Russia or corresponding supplyers. Its only one potential direction of sales...

neither does giving finnish examples. . If you do the maths a economy growing at 2-3% and is about 4-5 times larger and one growing at 6 % it is going to take ages for this to come back on par espically since the gigger economy does not stall
Dont try to crawl away, you did provide insufficent table that tells me nothing more than some one wants to show of something that he isent.

Russia cannot be par whit other capitalist nations due its history, but this doesent in anyway outclude the fact that Russian economy is on grow.


But with funding comes innovatoin. chinese engineers had all these wonderful plans in the 60s 70s 80s unitl now how to design future aircraft but were limited by risk and money thats why no inovation occured. Just look at the J-9 fighter the chinese tank with a engine in the front. There was no lack of inovation but lack of will and funding. wheres soviet engineers had the luxury of pursuing their dreams to make weapons and also the americans
yeas, so whats the point? I claimed that China's lack of that evolution of projects weigths too much when its time to field the next generation. its totally different to desing something new and novel, than field it as operational system. There you need good basis of former experience whit working on in the new fields. Only aviable way to China to aquire this is to go on 'shopping', and thats is in my mind the crucial downside of Chinas capapility to become par whit west and even whit Russia.

And your opinoin i will get to tommorrow since its nearing mid-night now
yeah, you should propaply get some sleep, then...good night;)
 
Last edited:

aaaditya

New Member
chinawhite said:
Do you have confirmation about this?. Indians do spread a lot of rumours like ATV Akula submainres backfires and at one time Mig-1.42 production as reported by a indian newspaper in 2003. Is this confirmed about the Amur submainres or is this just forum chit chat?. Because the last word i heard was about the russian amur getting trashed for bad build quailty. that is the first one built.

India has about 10kilo submainres which are going/coming back from a moderization which allows them to fire Klub missiles which are more effective on a submainres considering its size



In reailty it would probaly have western sensors and western fuel cell, plus the option of russia willing to give india the source codes for launching the missile from the scropene submainre. The amur comes at a disadvatnage because of its extremely small size. One amur could hold about 10maximum brahmos missiles(this is just off my head) but it wouldn't be a patrol submainre but be limited to the coast



Highly unlikey that russia would win simply because turkey is a US ally and uses US only equipment. Also the T-80U was entered in a tank competition and lost not because it was less capable or expensive but because of polictics just like how the F-15 was chosen over the EF and rafale in singapore because it was againest polictics.

The smerch is the BM-30 which is a MLRS which is cheap compared to otehr ground equipent like tanks. This is true because the BM-30 surpasses the west in sheer weight of rocket power and at a relativly cheap price compared to their western counterparts. No big lost there seeing as how the rusians have never been in the lucrative middle eastern buiness where big is beautiful



Well the fabled ATV is nothing more than a rumour as of now. On forum chit chat its just the akula II made in india. check BR for that. I do understand that it is for leasing but i would imagine training in russia would be better than having your own akulas unless they were akulas. Do you have any informatio on the ATV that would be useful, i got all the information from global and BR but anything different?



Repalce jaguars with this?. I have seen the pre-designs of this posted by harrison and no way will this be intended as a first role ground attack aircraft. Firstly its two small its suppose to be one crew and its a delta wing aircraft. A delta is completey unmanuverble at low speeds and espically at low altitudes. While if the MCA is just a enlarged LCA it will be small to carry a decent payload



Unlikey. russia rejected project 33 and a verision of the Su-47 simply because they were one engined. Its about reliability of the aircraft that matters to them. thats why the Mig-29 isn't a single engined plane thats why the Su-27 isn't a singled engined plane
this was stated by the indian defence minister pranab mukherjee in a press conference during his visit to russia.

though i do not have a video clipping of it.
 

turin

New Member
The Klub is a remodeled shipwreak
These missiles are fundamentally different and there is no way you just can "remodel" a 3M45 in order to get a 3M51 or 3M54. Otherwise you would have to call a Harpoon a "remodeled" Styx.

S-400 is a S-300 with a different motor and a fire control system.
Actually the S-400 includes at least three missiles, two for medium range and one for long range. So what exactly are you talking about? Also there is a range of different S-300 systems. I take it you are talking about S-300PMU2 and more specifically about the 48N6E2 missile or is it about the S-300V with 9M82/83 missiles!?
 

aaaditya

New Member
there are seevral version of amurs including the amur1650 and the amur 1950,the amur1650 is of the same size as the scorpene and carries the brahmos missiles,the amur950 is very small (950 tons) but carries 8 brahmos vls launchers.
indian were not satisfied with the performance of the type636m kilo class of subs's sonar and hence replaced it with the indigenously designed ushus sonar.
 

Vital

New Member
I like this discussion more and more.:)
I have good news, Russia is preparing a contract for 10b dollars. We are going to help India to create a complex AD system. While you are talking we are striking money.
Besides US bought and still buying russian military equipment for their jets.We can sell more hardware if not US policy and UN (read US) restrictions.;)
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
aaaditya said:
there are seevral version of amurs including the amur1650 and the amur 1950,the amur1650 is of the same size as the scorpene and carries the brahmos missiles,the amur950 is very small (950 tons) but carries 8 brahmos vls launchers.
indian were not satisfied with the performance of the type636m kilo class of subs's sonar and hence replaced it with the indigenously designed ushus sonar.
Chinawhite, I do have to agree with the Indians in this thread. The Scorpene deal is just for 6 subs. If the Russians can get their acts together and produce a decent prototype for amur1650 and amur1950, there is quite a good chance they can still get the order from the Indians.

Klub is not a remodeled shipwreck.

S-400 is a potent system. (no matter how much it shares with S-300)

Just for show, I will list what else China will buy from the Russians/Ukrainians in the next 20 years:
1) 8 or more S-400 battalions for sure
2) HQ-16 (well, not sure if China has to pay the Russians for this)
3) 24 su-27kub for carriers
4) An-70 co-production with Antonov
5) 20 IL-76/IL-78 or 15 An-124
6) More FM2, FM3 versions of AL-31F and FN to replace the engines in the existing su-27sk and ubk fighter and for some J-10s. I'm guessing 400 engines is likely.
7) some IFVs to study for development of new indigenous ones
8) < 10 Ka-28/31
9) 100 Mi-171 or whatever the future variants of this series are
10) plenty of sub systems for subs, AWACS and ships.

You can take a guess at how much import that will be.
 

LancerMc

New Member
Time and again people keep saying Russian technology is old and useless. Now I agree Western technology is more advance, though not as much as the west thinks,then Russian designs, but we are still forgetting the importance of training in any conflict.

In Vietnam the highly trained NVAF scored well against the American F-100/105/4's with their MiG 15/17/21's. Technology can also for advantage in combat, but an intelligent, well trained, and highly motivated fighting force can overcome the technology gap. Not until the U.S. shifted the training, military tactics, and gained new technology did the overcome the less technical foe.

A modern example is the USAF loss to IAF in Cope India. The American F-15's were put at disadvantage because their leaders did not want to give away the BVR abilities of the Eagle, but the Indian's thoroughly attacked the American is close air combat. So Russian technology is still very much potent, though less so with the F/A-22, Eurofighter, Rafale, Gripen, and F-16E/F coming into service. The Russian technology still has sharp teeth and with excellent training it is still very combat effective.

In reality for the Russian military industries to survive they need to start working with other European nations. The Cold War is over why should American, European, and Russian scientists not work together to develop new advance lost cost military systems. Though this is a difficult idea since the U.S. hardly ever works with anyone else in the development of its technology.

In tune to the development of Russian SAM technology, I agree that the new S-300 and S-400 system are effective but are big and easy to take out at distance with new cruise missiles. I think Russia should shift to more portable and movable systems that are easy to conceal. The harder the SAM system is to find the harder it is to be taken out.

Russia is focusing on main battle tanks, but many nations like the U.S. are starting to buy lighter troop carriers that are also effective attack vehicle's since MBT's are so difficult to move and transport. Russia will lose out on this direction.
 
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