I was talking to some americans about this subject and were thinking about what the americans did after the collapse of the soviet union when those soviet scientist where left without jobs, We disscusssed the possiblity of russian scientist getting promises like a visa and good money to come to america, Paperclip two. your thinking on very different lines. Im thinking how is the russians going to compete like the Soviets did and your thinking something entirley different. What i know is that if the american goverment didn't get the russian scientist then the commerical market would have like microsoft beoing locheed martin would all have wanted those russian scientist
Here are russias former/current exporters.
China -China never wanted to import russian equipment and donest seem so in the future. Joint ventures unlikey but will build russian equipment
India-India wants a joint venture or russian technology. Have their own technology pool and wanting to produce their own equipment
Iran-Iran is building its own with production lines russian technology and technical assitance
Iraq-No brainer with this one
And other country i have mentioned is insinificant in the scheme of things. Malaysia wants 18 somthign Su-30s Vietnam wants 4. Ships are a no brainer to me since their main export destination was china and india.
Exactually my point. No exports no development. As of now exports in russia number maybe 10-20billion. Think about what was actually needed in soviet times to build her ships making RnD prioties. At the height of the cold war Soviet expeniture was 170billion for arms and RnD and a good part of this for researching new equipment. The current russian defence budget is 20billion thats just enough to keep some of the navy some of the airforce and some money left over for other things.The russians make a good deal and always have a good price. This cuts profit margins somewhat which leaves less for RnD spending. Its simple logic to figure out that if russia is getting RnD money from exports and exports fail it will not get money
Now after the fall of the soviet union what new developments actually have happened that wasn't soviet based or new commerical technology the russians aquired?. The domestic industry is the one which susutains your growth and the exports and more money generators. Other countries which brought russian equipment dont want to just import equipment it wants to make it themselves, joint ventures or just use russian technology.The russians dont have a domestic supply of buyers. the russian military have all these plans reported in the press which dont come though. i'll give you examples underneath
Its got nothing to do with Soviet to russian doctrime. Heres what i am stating. The ussians are building all this soviet era equipment which has not got a moderized version. All the weapons on ship the radar systesm are soviet era or soviet derived with western technology. Yes it might be a new design but they are still using old weapons. Funding covettes for your navy is not going to make a profit in which you can spend on RnD.
Yes russia is designing this covette but it has company in the likes of china, france, US, britian. all those ship building nations. Russia like i said beforehand has trouble paying its soldiers and the funds it does get are in the form of hard currency. The higher end navies of the west buy westernies and it is agaienst NATO regulations to buy russian equipment. That leaves us with the lower scale of the market place where countries like China and india have a advantage because they are not looking for the best capability but are looking for the best price. The russians on one hand accept hard currency and the other china which accepts bater trades which are more economical for a poorer nation like a african nation or a south american nation.
What ever happened to the Amur class?. One got built then got scraped? Countries that buy submarines buy them more for capability then for the cheap price tag. They usually buy the best they can get a hold of. The Amur in my opinoin doesn't fit any of the ceritas. Its not cheap its less capable and from reports i have read not that advanced either.
This is the future not the present numbers. Russia might still be a powerhouse in exporting to other nations now because other countries dont have those capabilties but when you steadly give other countries no how they will expand themselves. And combine that with lack of russian investment you ahve a situation
I do not believe in the re-rise of russia. they are not a manufracturing society but just one where people sells there good to. eg
China buys russian resources. china makes the finished product and sells it back to russia for a larger price. With military development goes hand in hand with economic development. During the last 7 years russias economy has only risen by resources and a big piece of that is because of gold prices and the war in iraq and increasing oil pices. Its not done anything to the service sector its manufracturing sector. Ill give you a idea of how small the russian economy is. This is in nominal figures here and source is IMF
— European Union 12,865,602
1 United States 11,734,300
2 Japan 4,671,198
3 Germany 2,754,727
4 United Kingdom 2,133,019
5 France 2,046,292
6 People's Republic of China 1,830,000
7 Italy 1,680,112
8 Canada 1,092,422
9 Spain 1,041,338
10 South Korea 680,409
11 Mexico 675,254
12 India 665,071
13 Australia 618,021
14 Netherlands 607,531
15 Brazil 603,783
16 Russia 581,783
Just gives you a idea of what each nation can spend on defence
Arms trades are not dictated by market practices or capitalism
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Its all about polictical infuence in the region and your global reach. Even though russian equipment outperforms other equipment by some margin it still wont be selected because its russia. Its not looking about Brang for the bruck. And in the other regions they wouldn't have enough money to spend to buy new equipment. Theres only a limited pace where russia can sell its equipment. Its not the soviet era where it had its sphere of influence. It doesn't have that reach nor the money and power which came with it. The countries russia did export to were poor third world nations which couldn't afford to buy the best and did it though barter trades. Or were the pre-axis of evil countries of the evil empire like regan like to call it.
These countries like algeria or syria are extremely poor and i dont imangine them sustaining the russian growth nor do i see the government government rising defence spening by 6% a year
Just like russia did during the cold war to western equipment. Well, according to my memory china was turing out more engineers than the US, Im not going to bother going though why china copied equipment beforehand but you can reason yourself in the western dominace thread.
I highly doubt china will build a russian design under license but incorpated new ideas into our own equipment. If you want you know a recent example of china actually copying russian equipment mention it now
So ?. Im betting the 2000 or so F-16s produced will eventually find themselves in some third world airforce.
EDIT:I want you to name the russian export destinations in the future and the potnetional buys/buyers