European Union, member states and Agencies

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Let's hope the German Constitutional Court doesn't override this (as smaller parties have said they will bring a case if the lame-duck parliament tries to change the constitution). Even if it's an irregular procedure, it's clearly in the German national interest.
The other concern is that the new parliament tries to walk back some of the last measures passed by the previous government. My knowledge of German politics is limited, but I do see certain parties gaining more influence and what one party can do another can undo.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
The other concern is that the new parliament tries to walk back some of the last measures passed by the previous government. My knowledge of German politics is limited, but I do see certain parties gaining more influence and what one party can do another can undo.
The CDU/CSU and SPD will have a small majority together. Even if they don't have a coalition, it's unlikely all the non-CDU/CSU parties would unite to undermine German rearmament. Not least because the Greens hate the AfD so wouldn't vote with them, and the SPD aren't anti-military.
 
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kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The other concern is that the new parliament tries to walk back some of the last measures passed by the previous government.
They can't. What they're talking about enacting is a constitutional change. That requires a 2/3rds majority in parliament.

In order to get that they need the current minority government coalition of SPD + Greens (206+118 seats) plus Merz' CDU/CSU faction (197 seats).

There are two flanking measures being brought in partially to appease the SPD and to try to buy off the Greens to join that - a 500 billion fund for infrastructure, and allowing states up to 0.35% GDP debt (instead of a flat zero now).

In the new parliament there is no way to achieve a 2/3rds majority by anyone without involving either The Left or AfD plus at least one party from the "opposing block" (i.e. e.g. CDU/CSU/AFD do not have the required majority, neither would SPD/Greens/Left). Hence we will not see any constitutional changes in the next four years.
 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #164
The first draft of the plan consist in:
- National funds (more space for state-spending, not over 1.5% of GDP/yr)
- EU funds ( 150 billions for paneuropean strategic programs )
- EIB funds ( European Investments Bank will finance European projects )
- Cohesion funds.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Macron's full speech this evening can be watched with English synchronization here:


In case it hasn't hit the news wherever you are, Macron basically offers to expand the French nuclear umbrella to European allies.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
In case it hasn't hit the news wherever you are, Macron basically offers to expand the French nuclear umbrella to European allies.
That's not that he said. He said he'd enter into discussions about the possibility. But it's not clear it will happen. He has to consider the position of the French public, who haven't had time to digest the idea. If he makes promises too quickly it might boost the National Rally.

Also, at a minimum he'd expect a quid pro quo from other European nations, such as much higher defence spending or guaranteed orders for the French defence industry.
 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #167

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Eastern Europe going through a major "I told you so" moment.
Finland and Poland mulling withdrawal from obsolete treaties banning munitions like cluster munitions and anti-personnel mines.
There is active production of such weapons, so if they do it fast, they can secure early deliveries.

 

Meriv90

Active Member
If about weapon ban treaty I totally agree, If about geopolitics i don't.

The same Poland that created all this problem in a proxy war created by the US?



And to get what back?

Get classified as tier 2


Or that Trump doesn't even know who they are, Polish opposition leader went to the CPAC, Trump made him wait more than an hour to receive him just for 10 minutes , karma lol

And having bet in the wrong horse that is the crumbling NATO alliance.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Frustrated with Hungary blocking EU initiatives to aid Ukraine?
Get ready for Hungary on steroids. When that happens, I give it 20 years max til Spain renames to Al Andalus.


Gotta hand it to Turkey though, they really played every side and got all the rewards.
I suspect Turkey's current expansionist policies are short-sighted and might come to haunt them in the medium term. Their gains aren't all that firm, and their domestic situation remains less-than-ideal. Erdogan has also substantially eroded Turkish democracy, raising questions about the future of the country and the government. They have played the game well for the rewards they chose, but I question the wisdom of those choices.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I believe there's a legitimate sentiment among common Europeans that it's unfair to contribute more until others contribute more and that could easily result in none contributing more.
If that's a factor in EU inaction, there's need for a serious reform.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Frustrated with Hungary blocking EU initiatives to aid Ukraine?
Get ready for Hungary on steroids. When that happens, I give it 20 years max til Spain renames to Al Andalus.


Gotta hand it to Turkey though, they really played every side and got all the rewards.
Large EU investment in South Africa.
This seems to be consistent with reconciliatory attitude toward Turkey and energy trade with Russia.

I believed at first that Trump's policy would force the EU to tackle Russia. But it seems to at least have had some negative effects. Pre-Trump EU was somewhat neutral. Forming a bloc to advance western development on one hand, but also using generated resources to assist Axis members.
Trump's policy hasn't shifted the EU to a more pro-western stance, but simply reinforced both aspects of EU policy.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Large EU investment in South Africa.
This seems to be consistent with reconciliatory attitude toward Turkey and energy trade with Russia.
Global Gateway is a much larger funding campaign, involving 300 billion Euro to be spent between 2021 and 2027. About half of that are planned to go to African nations. It's Europe's counterpart to China's New Silk Road programme and largely seen to be directly competing with that.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Global Gateway is a much larger funding campaign, involving 300 billion Euro to be spent between 2021 and 2027. About half of that are planned to go to African nations. It's Europe's counterpart to China's New Silk Road programme and largely seen to be directly competing with that.
With China and the Axis offering military hardware and sponsorship, and the EU only giving general development options, the only outcome I see is African leaders bending over at Axis demands and pocketing naive Europeans' money.
They don't care about infrastructure and development. That's just a bonus for popularity. But if the people won't like them for the development and reforms, they'll fear them. First and foremost they need weapons to have their little civil wars and to protect their own rule.


Macron being the usual dummy and demanding Fr*nch exclusivity over ReArm. France doesn't have the industrial capacity to do that.

France accounts for about as much of global arms exports as UK and Germany combined. But it is mitigated by production going almost purely toward exports and very little toward military modernization and expansion.
When we look at other exporters, we see Italy making a huge leap in total exports which in turn means higher production realized or anticipated.
And when we look at Europe in general, there are quite a few small nations we hear about making strides in localizing defense production and bringing in capabilities that can benefit the entire Europe.
As long as anyone tries making ReArm an EU-production-only or an X-country-only thing, it's doomed to fail.
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kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Why would the British be included in or benefit from a EU initiative?
The left the Union. Their choice.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Why would the British be included in or benefit from a EU initiative?
The left the Union. Their choice.
Because they produce weapons. ReArm should provide all members the freedom to decide whom they wish to buy their weapons from.
 
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