As has been stated already, the PRC must first develop the neccessary technology, and learn to apply it, before a PLAN carrier battle group could ever be considered a threat. Varyag's engines and associated equipment was removed prior to the sale- has she been refitted with a powerplant/engineering equipment yet? She was completely de-militarized by the government of Ukrain as per condition of sale. Have her weapons mounts, sensors and countermeasures been replaced?
If none of the above has yet been addressed, then China is still years away from re-launching this ship. What's more, as we saw with the fiasco of the DeGaul, simply putting a hull in the water is certainly NOT the final chapter in making her combat-ready.
They've got to have a reliable means of maintaining some kind of operational security regarding the position, and composition of their fleet. And since it's impossible to hide from EVERYONE'S prying eyes, they've also got to be able to defend it. Failure to devote/develop assets to defend their carrier would bring about it's rapid destruction.
Carrier-borne AWAC's isn't simply a nice thing to have- it's absolutely VITAL. Shipboard advanced sensors and networked comms/data is also VITAL. The capabilty to salvo SAMs, and guide them reliably to intecept dozens of inbound ASM's, is VITAL. The ability to take a hit, and survive the damage is VITAL.
Now, I am a firm believer that given will-power, time, and money- almost any problem can be overcome, but to say that the PRC is facing a LONG, HARD up-hill slog trying to get that old Soviet carrier back into operation is the understatement of the year. And keep in mind, they are trying to catch up to a nation that has been highly successful at building and operating CTOL super carriers for the better half of a century. The US navy isn't struggling uphill to make ONE CBG an operational asset- they are strolling downhill, while building the follow-on to the Nimitz-class CVN.
EVERYONE knows that the primary purpose of the PRC for building a carrier is in anticipation for a conflict over Taiwan, and/or the Spratley Islands.
So, knowing this- doesn't it make sense that EVERY naval power with access to the region will be developing plans and means for neutralizing the PRC's ONLY carrier? In the event of open conflict, every anti-ship asset from the East Coast of Africa, to the West Coast of North, and South America will be focussed on finding and destroying the PLAN Varyag CVBG. The ASM threat would be far beyond the means of the PLAN's current and projected capabilites to defend against- but the threat from anti-ship torpedoes is beyond measure. Everyone should already be aware that there are a sufficient number of USN SSN's to make sure one is constantly tasked to tail and destroy China's carrier. This was an eventuality that was practiced with Soviet HVM's. This will undoubtedly remain to be the USN's operational doctrine when, and if, the PLAN ever floats a carrier hull.
The MK48 ADCAP, and whatever is produced to replace it- are currently capable of breaking a cruiser-class surface target's back with a single hit. It's safe to assume that a prudent SSN skipper is going to launch a brace of no less than four torpedoes at a time, to ensure that he is forever immortalized as the man who sunk China's naval pride and joy.
If necessary, he is more than capable of launching an additional four- just because he can.
So, is China going to develop and field a sufficient number of advanced SSN's, that can take on any of the LA/Seawolf/Virginia-class boats- and win?
The first and second operational squadrons of F/A-22 Raptors are already nearing combat-readiness. Provided with forward basing, and AAR from Okinawa- it wouldn't be unimaginable that these Raptors would be able to provide continuos air-superiority/dominance over the Taiwan Straits, and the South China Sea.
It is a fact that a single Raptor has taken on, and defeated a four-plane flight of F-15's in mock engagements. It was said to have been an overwhelming, almost humiliating defeat for the Eagle pilots.
The Raptor is probably equal to the B-2 in terms of stealth, but of course it is much faster, and more nimble.
Further, The Raptors have recently proven that they can deliver the JDAM PGM with pin-point accuracy- a weapon that could be used to target and destroy a large vessel like the Varyag with relative ease.
So, even assuming that the Varyag can be loaded and operate a small number of Su-33's, how well can they defend a CVBG from the Raptor? The reality is, the Superhornet with AMRAAM is still a serious threat- but the Raptor is more dangerous by an order of magnitude.
If China cannot maintain air-superiorty over their carrier flagship, and their intended area of operation- the Varyag CVBG would be nothing more than a liability. It would be a smoking hole in the ocean where once a mighty carrier sailed.
) while having some 30.000 tons helicopter carriers for Z-9 armed with torpedos, M-171 transporters and WZ-10 attack helicopter to operate in the green water regions (Island chains etc.). My guess is that China will "revive" the Varyag with some own tunings while developing an indigenious design probably containing elements from the former Australian carrier and the Varyag. I heard from a source that China intends to deploy at least one carrier in the Varyag class and one carrier in the Kiev class. But right now it is still a rumor.