China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Musashi_kenshin]

Prime Minister to assert staunch commitment to European security at UK-France Summit

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron expected to agree new approaches to challenges including migration, energy security and the threat from Russia.

www.gov.uk

The UK and France have announced their intent to discuss establishing a regular European carrier presence in the Indo-Pacific through sequenced deployments. The announcement doesn't mention China, but it clearly is behind this project.

Even the Royal Navy with its two carriers would struggle to keep a carrier permanently stationed in that part of the world, but rotating deployments with the French could be viable.

 

[seaspear]

Since the plan is for a "European" presence it could also include escorts from such countries like Italy and Germany that are now building or planning large ships like the German f-126 and Italian DDX large destroyers slated for 2028

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Since the plan is for a "European" presence it could also include escorts from such countries like Italy and Germany that are now building or planning large ships like the German f-126 and Italian DDX large destroyers slated for 2028

Rome steps up Indo-Pacific engagement by sending patrol vessel - Decode39

Italy is contributing to allies activity in the strategic area by sending the Morosini offshore patrol vessel. Here’s how the Italian contribution fits...

decode39.com

 

[T.C.P]

Iran, Saudi Arabia announce normalization of diplomatic relations, Yemen undecided - UPI.com

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to resume relations between the two countries in a deal brokered by China on Friday.

www.upi.com

A serious diplomatic coup for China. Saudi really wants the civil nuclear program and thats right up China's alley.How this affects the Iran- Saudi-Israeli triangle will be better discuss on the middeast security thread.

 

[John Fedup]

Iran, Saudi Arabia announce normalization of diplomatic relations, Yemen undecided - UPI.com

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to resume relations between the two countries in a deal brokered by China on Friday.

www.upi.com

A serious diplomatic coup for China. Saudi really wants the civil nuclear program and thats right up China's alley.How this affects the Iran- Saudi-Israeli triangle will be better discuss on the middeast security thread.

I would think the Yemen issue will make the normalisation somewhat tenuous.

 

[T.C.P]

I would think the Yemen issue will make the normalisation somewhat tenuous.

No doubt, but restarting of dilomatic ties will let them talk about it more clearly. Neither side gains much from the Yemen debacle. Saudi has arguably more to lose from being in that conflict and Iran needs less enemies in the region. This could work out for both.

 

[Stuart M]

On China's activities in Micronesia

The Pacific leader who led the push to deny China a region-wide security agreement says Chinese officials have followed and threatened him, bribed his officials, and mapped his country’s marine territory for potential resources.
Federated States of Micronesia President David Panuelo detailed the allegations in an extraordinary March 9 letter to FSM political leaders, accusing Beijing of waging “political warfare and grey zone activity” within the nation’s borders, and revealing he was considering ending diplomatic relations with China.

“To be clear: I have had direct threats against my personal safety from PRC officials acting in an official capacity,” Mr Panuelo wrote.

He said China’s stated intention to invade Taiwan was a core threat to FSM, and “it is on this basis that political warfare and grey zone activity occur within our borders”.

“China is seeking to ensure that, in the event of a war in our Blue Pacific Continent between themselves and Taiwan, that the FSM is, at best, aligned with the PRC (China) instead of the United States and, at worst, that the FSM chooses to abstain altogether,” Mr Panuelo said.

Paywalled

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/micronesia-president-david-panuelo-faces-chinese-threats/news-story/d37e884b387c30733ff37f22d9eb68d3

After the Solomons agreement with the PRC we can see from this quite clearly China's intent, I think, to in effect purchase these smaller island nations.
Presumably this is not just about diplomatic alignment but to allow eventual basing of PLA assets to monitor and interdict shipping of those nations not in the CCPs good books, quite apart from resources explotation.
I dont expect any sudden announcements to get people all hot under the collar, the CCP seems to have learned from the failure of their last foray, but after the South China Seas island annexation, there seems to be a trend line of the CCPs intent to put up barriers to Western activities.

 

[OPSSG]

Xi Jinping recently announced the “Global Civilization Initiative” (全球文明倡议) or GCI —these are initiatives aimed towards shaping the international order. Some of the 5 parts of the GCI is for a domestic purpose, but China does need for the GCI for economic and political reasons to enhance its relations with Africa, ASEAN and Europe.

1. The first is a Community of Shared Future of Mankind (CCD). This is framed as the PRC’s proposal for an international order free of the “inherent (Western) biases of the existing international order”. CCD has 5 (abstract) components:

Equal partnerships​

A new security architecture​

Common development​

Inter-civilization exchanges​

Green development​

2. The 2nd is using the BRI as a means “to build a new model of international relations”.
The BRI is Beijing’s vision of global (China-centered) interconnectedness and includes 5 key cooperation areas:

Intergovernmental policy coordination​

Reduction of trade barriers​

(Infrastructure) connectivity​

Financial integration​

People-to-people exchanges​

3. The 3rd is building common values of mankind. China feels that the West uses its control over international discourse power to impose its own standards, laws, and norms on non-Western countries, either to remake them in their image or to hamper their development. For Xi, modernization does not equal Westernization

4. The 4th is the Global Security Initiative (GSI) announced during the Boao forum. The GSI may be viewed as China’s vision of collective security reform. The GSI highlights 6 aspects:

Common security​

Sovereignty and territorial integrity​

Focus on the UN Charter​

Legitimate security concerns of all countries​

Peaceful dispute resolution via dialogue and consultation​

Security in traditional & non-traditional domains​

5. Lastly, the Global Development Initiative (GDI) that projects China’s prioritization of development to the UN level, attempting to tie it to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals It builds on past efforts of the BRI.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

How ironic...

 

[swerve]

Indeed. E.g. "Equal partnerships". I didn't think Xi had a sense of humour, but I see I was wrong.

 

[Vivendi]

Interesting analysis of the outcome of Xi's visit to Moscow.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638230854991224857

Basically Xi got quite a lot out of this, without having to give much in return.

I suggested some time ago that Russia will become China's "lap dog". It seems this process is happening faster than I anticipated...

There is also this:

The Ministry of Natural Resources on February 14 published a new version of its world map – directing a return to using the Chinese names of eight cities and areas occupied by the Russian Empire in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
[...]
Under Beijing’s new directive, Vladivostok once again is called Haishenwai (meaning Sea Cucumber Bay) while Sakhalin Island is called Kuyedao. The Stanovoy Range is back to being called the Outer Xing’an Range in Chinese.

China’s ironic reticence on land grab in Ukraine – Asia Times

Now why would China choose to implement such a directive now....? I also wonder what the Russians think about this...

 

[John Fedup]

Now why would China choose to implement such a directive now....? I also wonder what the Russians think about this...

The average Russian should be concerned but this is not want Putin wants them to think. The oligarchs will be concerned about longterm investments in Siberia as they are very familiar with how to steal stuff.

 

[hauritz]

Chinese mapmakers have been instructed to start using the original Chinese names for cities located in Russia's East Siberia.
Henceforth Vladivostok will now be known as Haishenwai.

Should this be a little concerning for Moscow?

Territorial dispute between China and Russia risks clouding friendly future

Despite the public image of cordiality presented by China and Russia, some observers suggest the friendship is on fragile foundations. Xi Jinping is visiting Moscow this week in a show of solidarity…

www.rfi.fr

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Chinese mapmakers have been instructed to start using the original Chinese names for cities located in Russia's East Siberia.
Henceforth Vladivostok will now be known as Haishenwai.

Should this be a little concerning for Moscow?

Territorial dispute between China and Russia risks clouding friendly future

Despite the public image of cordiality presented by China and Russia, some observers suggest the friendship is on fragile foundations. Xi Jinping is visiting Moscow this week in a show of solidarity…

www.rfi.fr

I don't think that Moskou needs to be concerned.
1. Its quite common that countries give own names to other countries or foreign cities.
2. China and Russia need each other as allies.

 

[John Fedup]

I don't think that Moskou needs to be concerned.
1. Its quite common that countries give own names to other countries or foreign cities.
2. China and Russia need each other as allies.

….but Russia needs China much more and that will only increase with time. A weakened Russia is very much in China’s interest wrt squeezing them on good deals for natural resources.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

In this article we can read that the diplomatic relation between Iran and Saudi-Arabia is improving, and that it is to be expected that because of this the Middle-East becomes more stable. All thanks to china.

Toenadering Iran en Saudi-Arabië zet door, snelle doorbraak met dank aan China

Saudi-Arabië en Iran verbraken de betrekkingen in 2016, nu worden de diplomatieke betrekkingen tussen de landen aangehaald, veel sneller dan gedacht.

nos.nl

And in this article they are telling that some European politicians want to divide china and Russia.

Von der Leyen en Macron willen Chinese president Xi losweken van Poetin

Volgens de voorzitter van de Europese Commissie is de Chinese houding tegenover de Russische invasie zelfs bepalend voor de toekomstige betrekkingen tussen de EU en China.

nos.nl

 

[hauritz]

….but Russia needs China much more and that will only increase with time. A weakened Russia is very much in China’s interest wrt squeezing them on good deals for natural resources.

Pretty much my thoughts. The master/servant relationship is being reversed. To some extent the peace initiative the Chinese are making to the Russians and Ukrainians almost sounds like an ultimatum.

This is a press release from Xi Jinping.

系统维护_中华人民共和国外交部

www.fmprc.gov.cn

It is your classic sh@t sandwich with the opening talking about the strong relationship China shares with Russia and closes with an affirmation of how close their partnership is.

Then inbetween that, he lays out that China is impartial in this conflict, that war is bad for business, and it needs to end.

 

[Vivendi]

The Chinese ambassador to France said in an interview recently that Ukraine and other parts of the former USSR have no "effective status" under international law.

“In international law, even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have the status, the effective [status] in international law, because there is no international agreement to materialize their status as a sovereign country,” he said.

This has created a strong reaction, in particular from the Baltics.

Baltics blast China diplomat for questioning sovereignty of ex-Soviet states

Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, said that former Soviet countries have no ‘effective status’ in international law.

www.politico.eu

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649835020427640833

 

[swerve]

No wonder there's a strong reaction! The independence of those countries was recognised by everyone, including Russia & China. He's saying that Chinese recognition of the independence of a country has no status in international law. What does that say about the validity of Chinese territorial claims?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Chile plans to nationalize its vast lithium industry

Chile's president aims to nationalize the country's lithium industry, the world's second largest producer of the metal essential in electric vehicle batteries.

www.cnbc.com

You might ask why I've posted an article about Chile nationalising its lithium industry on a thread about China. Well, Peter Zaihan posted an interesting video about how the onshoring of lithium refining is not just good for Chile, but also good for the democratic world and bad for China.

Zaihan says that one of China's big businesses is hoovering up raw materials the world over and processing them. They can't do that if countries like Chile do that instead. As such it will reduce China's influence in supply chains.