Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Its the only one they got....designed and built by Xi himself!
China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.
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Advanced microchip production being concentrated in Taiwan is similar to Germany making itself almost entirely dependent on Russian oil.
A huge geostrategic mistake on the part of the West, and gives China an even greater reason for wanting control over Taiwan.
This is the danger of thinking that free markets, and free markets alone, should dictate the way the world works.
Taiwanese concentrated that advanced microchip production, by building a centre of excellence with greater skill at designing & making advanced microchips than anywhere else.
Other countries (especially the Netherlands) made & sold them them the best machinery, but the Taiwanese have been using that machinery more effectively than anywhere else.
TSMC's recently begun building factories far away from China, though (e.g. a big fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin production next year), perhaps just so the company can survive a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Other countries (especially the Netherlands) made & sold them them the best machinery, but the Taiwanese have been using that machinery more effectively than anywhere else.
TSMC's recently begun building factories far away from China, though (e.g. a big fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin production next year), perhaps just so the company can survive a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Neither TSMC/SK Hynix/Samsung see the need to relocate their core strategic industries outside of their respective countries for purely economic and commercials reasons.
You are seeing from the lense of what it means to consumers of those chips, especially western developed countries. But most of these Asian companies don't share those views and I would imagine their governments as well for fear of losing jobs and investments.
The few nodes that they are building outside of these potential conflict zones are just to please Western policy makers. But they are not moving their "crown jewels" (e.g their most advanced R&D, chip packaging and testing) outside. If it is about redundancy, the cost of building a parallel set of supply chain outside of Asia would be... extremely expensive.
The Chinese have leveled accusations that the US does the same, predictably. But how credible are those claims?
www.bbc.com
Beyond the clear lack of evidence, jet streams makes those accusations difficult to reconcile. Jet streams are global wind patterns that travel from West to East.
This is an important factor as balloons flight paths have to follow these streams on trans-continental journeys. For a US balloon to reach China, it would have to be launched into an Easterly path, going over the Atlantic Ocean, across Europe, over large parts of Central Asia or Russia, before reaching inner China.
For the US to launch 10 balloons with intelligence (SIGINT) payloads and not have any countries raise a concern seems extremely unlikely, not to mention that the US has significant spaceborne assets to make something like this essentially irrelevant.
On the other hand, the West-to-East nature of these jet streams that makes it easy and feasible for the Chinese to use this low tech way to gain some intel using balloons.
China says US balloons breached airspace at least 10 times
"It's not uncommon for the US to illegally enter the airspace of other countries," says a spokesman.
www.bbc.com
Beyond the clear lack of evidence, jet streams makes those accusations difficult to reconcile. Jet streams are global wind patterns that travel from West to East.
This is an important factor as balloons flight paths have to follow these streams on trans-continental journeys. For a US balloon to reach China, it would have to be launched into an Easterly path, going over the Atlantic Ocean, across Europe, over large parts of Central Asia or Russia, before reaching inner China.
For the US to launch 10 balloons with intelligence (SIGINT) payloads and not have any countries raise a concern seems extremely unlikely, not to mention that the US has significant spaceborne assets to make something like this essentially irrelevant.
On the other hand, the West-to-East nature of these jet streams that makes it easy and feasible for the Chinese to use this low tech way to gain some intel using balloons.
Yes I am indeed seeing it that way, that was largely my point
Yes that is exactly the way I am seeing it.
The West makes the equipment to make the chips, but doesn't make the chips.
The making of these chips is now concentrated in one geological location.
That location is not "safe" for the West's strategic interests.
This is strategically poor for the West, could the West afford to replicate this facility, yes of course it could, but it won't until it is too late, because there is just too much belief that "free markets" are always the best way to solve any problem because they drive down costs.
No, I don't think so.
The 5nm (N5) fab in Arizona is estimated to cost USD $12 billion, (link), while a second fab with 3nm production line is adding another USD$ 28 billion (link). Sounds like big numbers. But the entire US CHIPS Act is funded up to USD $52.7 billion only (link), which is just enough for 2 fabs in the US.
Given that TSMC controls ~53% of the global pure-play foundry market, and the majority of it's 4 x Gigafabs are in Taiwan along with 5 other smaller fabs and 1 in Nanjing, the US capacity would represent only a fraction of total capacity of TSMC, much less the rest of the world.
And we have not covered the rest of the competitors like UMC, Samsung etc or the associated eco-system/supply chain, which are largely Asian based.
It can be argued that anything is possible but it would require investments in the order of trillions, a timeline in the order of decades to setup a competitor to these Asian firms (I am assuming that there is little chance of persuading these firms to relocate the bulk of their production lines outside of Asia).
The largest semiconductor (fab-less) firms are the US giants like Intel #1, Micron/Qualcomm/Broadcom/TI . The underlying EUV technology of ASML was a result of US R&D in the early 2000s via the EUV LLC (link).
What has happened is for US to be competitive, it needs partnerships with the likes of TSMC to make the chips. Conversely, by on-shoring, it would be abit like a snake eating it's own tail (Ouroboros)
This article from Politico largely repeats those points, but this time, from the man himself, Morris Chang (TSMC founder) when he met Nancy Pelosi last year.
He is happy to take money from the US government to build the plant in Arizona, but notes that it would take far more than just $50 billion. His other concern about labour practices in the West is mirrors the point I made earlier, on the relentless nature of the business and the stuff he can get away with in Taiwan/China would not fly in America.
www.politico.com
The Taiwanese themselves have also passed laws earlier this year to encourage chip makers to retain their R&D capabilities at home, instead of moving it abroad and it is the same for the Koreans.
Taiwan Passes Its Chips Act, Offers Tax Credits to Chipmakers
www.tomshardware.com
techwireasia.com
He is happy to take money from the US government to build the plant in Arizona, but notes that it would take far more than just $50 billion. His other concern about labour practices in the West is mirrors the point I made earlier, on the relentless nature of the business and the stuff he can get away with in Taiwan/China would not fly in America.
Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head
“Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up.
www.politico.com
The Taiwanese themselves have also passed laws earlier this year to encourage chip makers to retain their R&D capabilities at home, instead of moving it abroad and it is the same for the Koreans.
Taiwan Passes Its Chips Act, Offers Tax Credits to Chipmakers
Taiwan's Chips Act Passes, Aims to Protect Its Process Tech
25% of research and development can be turned into tax credits.
www.tomshardware.com
Tech Wire Asia
Tech Wire Asia is an independent tech news website that covers enterprise and technology in Asia
techwireasia.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #969
There are any labour practises in the US that wouldn't pass muster in the UK, EU, Sweden, Norway, Australia and NZ. So I don't thnk that the US is a valid example of western industrial relations and labour practises.This article from Politico largely repeats those points, but this time, from the man himself, Morris Chang (TSMC founder) when he met Nancy Pelosi last year.
He is happy to take money from the US government to build the plant in Arizona, but notes that it would take far more than just $50 billion. His other concern about labour practices in the West is mirrors the point I made earlier, on the relentless nature of the business and the stuff he can get away with in Taiwan/China would not fly in America.
Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head
“Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up.
Morris Chang's views on labour matters came from his own experience working in the United States Texas Instrument early on in this career and the Arizona plant is the most visible outcome from the CHIPS Act. No unions and ~50 hours per week is considered good in his view.
english.cw.com.tw
www.eetasia.com
I think we are digressing on this topic too much and it is best to leave it for now. The geopolitical vulnerability of the west is here to stay for now.
It gets worse when China takes more share of the market. Not the cutting edge (3 -7nm), but just the mass market which are used in commercial appliances, automobiles and industrial equipments. Perhaps the Western focus should be this area rather than the cutting edge?
One Key to Success – No Unions｜Industry｜2016-10-28｜CommonWealth Magazine
TSMC Chairman Morris Chang, one of Taiwan’s most respected business people, opens up in this interview with CommonWealth Magazine about the future of the high-tech and semiconductor sectors and the state of labor-management relations in Taiwan.
english.cw.com.tw
Such cultural clash will remain an issue, and time will tell how the can adapt.
Culture Clash at TSMC's Arizona Fab - EE Times Asia
Will management and workers find a middle ground as the chip giant's newest U.S. fab ramps production?
www.eetasia.com
I think we are digressing on this topic too much and it is best to leave it for now. The geopolitical vulnerability of the west is here to stay for now.
It gets worse when China takes more share of the market. Not the cutting edge (3 -7nm), but just the mass market which are used in commercial appliances, automobiles and industrial equipments. Perhaps the Western focus should be this area rather than the cutting edge?
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
The ballooning U.S.-China rivalry has countries reluctant to pick sides
The escalating dispute over a downed Chinese surveillance balloon has once again left many countries stuck in the middle of the world's two largest economies.
US and China tensions due to 'balloon' incidents increasingly put pressures on other countries to choose side. However increasingly (especially for other Asians outside Japan and ROK) they choose to sit in the fence and refuse to take sides.
Just like war in ukraine make many outside collective west choose to sit in the fences, the US and China increasing competition also put those sitting in the fences increasing in numbers. This's reminiscing of 'Non Allign Countries' movements during Cold War 1.0.
Now we are increasingly shown entering Cold War 2.0, and those 'Non Allign Countries' in previous Cold War also mostly now that sitting in the fences. In my book this multipolar world order seems preparing those 'Non Allign Countries' to work with all sides. Just like they did during last cold war.
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- #972
I don't like unions much and I have had some experience with them. However, unions do have a place in the labour market because they do help to protect workers rights and welfare. That is important and in the US more often than not workers rights and welfare aren't adhered to. As an example the US is the only country in the OECD that doesn't mandate maternity and / or parental leave. Maternity leave: US policy is worst on list of the world's richest countries. Not very good at all.Morris Chang's views on labour matters came from his own experience working in the United States Texas Instrument early on in this career and the Arizona plant is the most visible outcome from the CHIPS Act. No unions and ~50 hours per week is considered good in his view.
One Key to Success – No Unions｜Industry｜2016-10-28｜CommonWealth Magazine
TSMC Chairman Morris Chang, one of Taiwan’s most respected business people, opens up in this interview with CommonWealth Magazine about the future of the high-tech and semiconductor sectors and the state of labor-management relations in Taiwan.
Why? It could be pertinent to the topic.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
This is from Indonesian Coast Guard (Bakamla) FB pages. Put it in here instead Indonesian Naval thread, as this shown another facet of Chinese diplomacy. This visit from Chinese Ambassador to Bakamla office on the agenda to discuss:
1. Conflict management,
2. Rule of conduct.
This is clearly related on Chinese effort to push down tension temperature in SCS between Chinese Coast Guards and SEA coast guards. I do see they also doing similar thing in Hanoi. Whether they will doing similar thing with Manila is remain to be seen, but I do suspect they will try.
This is part of Chinese diplomatic effort to reduce SCS arrangement toward bilateral and regional arrangements. Thus try to by pass US and allies, directly with SCS neighbors. China will try on this path as part of their efforts to shown US is the intruders on what supposedly Asian matters.
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
The EU Commission has decided to ban TikTok from all the EU institutions employees devices, both corporate and private devices, saying that " the Chinese-owned app poses a threat to our data protection" .
The decision comes unexpected and kind of out of the blue, and rumors talk of a possible wider chinese-apps ban coming in the EU, not only for institutions employees.
www.euractiv.com
The decision comes unexpected and kind of out of the blue, and rumors talk of a possible wider chinese-apps ban coming in the EU, not only for institutions employees.
European Commission bans TikTok from corporate devices
The EU executive’s IT service has asked all Commission employees to uninstall TikTok from their corporate devices, as well as the personal devices using corporate apps, citing data protection concerns.
www.euractiv.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #975
An interesting NZ TV program (Newshub Nation) interview with the Economist's Beijing Bureau Chief David Rennie, Expert unpacks China's long game in Ukraine war with Newshub Nation. He discusses where the PRC is at currently, it's intentions and goals and the fact that it has a goal of being the predominant player in the world, giving it the ability to rewrite international rules in its image. It has a goal to also be regional hegemon, replacing the US as such. It is very pragmatic about the UNGA and that even very small countries get a single vote in the General Assembly and it wants to influence / buy those votes in order to further its aim. It also sees itself as the champion for the global south and that it should be in charge of the global south.
The other issue is the deepening Cold War between the US and China. The danger of this Cold War is that there are no working capabilities for urgent communication between the political leaders and militaries of each in time of a crisis, unlike the US - USSR capabilities, such as the Washington - Moscow hotline. He says that China is working to divide the west and displace the US, hence its strong anti American rhetoric. WRT the Russo - Ukrainian War he says that officially the PRC is neutral and portrays itself as a peace loving neutral party, when in effect its neutrality is very strongly Russian biased. It claims that the US orchestrated the war and is very strongly pushing that, and other anti American tropes in the global south. He noted that WRT its current peace plan the Chinese consulted widely and deeply with Russia but never asked Ukraine for its input. His 2050 outlook for China is at the end of the interview.
The other issue is the deepening Cold War between the US and China. The danger of this Cold War is that there are no working capabilities for urgent communication between the political leaders and militaries of each in time of a crisis, unlike the US - USSR capabilities, such as the Washington - Moscow hotline. He says that China is working to divide the west and displace the US, hence its strong anti American rhetoric. WRT the Russo - Ukrainian War he says that officially the PRC is neutral and portrays itself as a peace loving neutral party, when in effect its neutrality is very strongly Russian biased. It claims that the US orchestrated the war and is very strongly pushing that, and other anti American tropes in the global south. He noted that WRT its current peace plan the Chinese consulted widely and deeply with Russia but never asked Ukraine for its input. His 2050 outlook for China is at the end of the interview.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Beijing's military budget will grow next year with 7,2%, which is around $225bn / €211 / £186bn. This is still a quarter of what the US is spending on defence.
China boosts military budget while warning of escalating threats
Beijing announces an increase in military spending, while warning of "escalating" threats.
www.bbc.com
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- #977
However the PLA get more bang for buck than the US does. You need to place the comparison in context; i.e., PPP is important here.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Yes,
And besides that this is the official budget. We dont know what they really spend in total on defence.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
A rather optimistic opinion that China may be deterred from invading Taiwan anytime soon due to cost. Hardly a concern for Xi who is answerable to no one. Given the huge logistical drain that the Ukraine is at present the opposite may be true. Invade now before the West and other partners can ramp up defence production.
news.usni.org
High Cost of Taiwan Invasion Will Dissuade China, Pentagon Official Says - USNI News
China will not attempt to invade Taiwan before the end of the decade because it understands the high cost, the senior Pentagon official in charge of Indo-Pacific security said Thursday. “Deterrence is real; deterrence is strong” today and tomorrow, said Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary for...
news.usni.org
China has made it clear in the past on what it considers as "red lines" that would trigger an invasion attempt (Taiwanese independence declaration, possession of nuclear arms etc).
If China deems it necessary to invade outside of these traditional red lines, the diplomatic/economic/strategic cost would have considered and accepted as a necessity anyway.
If China deems it necessary to invade outside of these traditional red lines, the diplomatic/economic/strategic cost would have considered and accepted as a necessity anyway.