Chinese Artificial Intelligence (AI) Efforts
1. Jennifer Melot, Ben Murphy, and Ryan Fedasiuk at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) compiled every procurement record published by PLA units and state-owned defense companies from Apr to Nov 2020, to find what the PLA is buying.
2. Key findings include:
(a) Chinese military leaders are already procuring AI-related systems and equipment to prepare for “intelligentized” warfare, but AI so far represents a small fraction of overall purchasing activity.
- Approximately 1.9% of public PLA contracts awarded between April 2020 and November 2020 are related to AI or autonomy.
- While we can only estimate a floor for Chinese military AI spending, it is likely that the PLA spends more than US$1.6 billion each year on AI-related systems and equipment.
- The PLA seems most focused on procuring AI for intelligence analysis, predictive maintenance, information warfare, and navigation and target recognition in autonomous vehicles.
- Whereas some PLA officers have expressed serious reservations about developing lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), laboratories affiliated with the Chinese military are actively pursuing AI-based target recognition and fire control research, which may be used in LAWS.
(b) Chinese leaders view AI as the key to transforming the PLA into a “world-class,” globally competitive military force. PLA advances in AI and autonomy will create new vulnerabilities for the United States and allied forces operating in the Indo-Pacific.
- The PLA hopes to use AI to generate asymmetric advantages vis-à-vis the United States, which it regards as a “strong enemy” (强敌), but also a role model for AI development.
- PLA units and military laboratories are focused on developing autonomous vehicles and surveillance systems in the undersea domain, where the United States has traditionally had a significant advantage.
- The PLA is stepping up investment in information operations and adaptive radar systems to jam and blind U.S. sensor and information networks, which PLA leaders judge to be particularly vulnerable.
- To compensate for vulnerabilities in its own networks, the PLA may adopt edge applications of AI (directly proximate to, or embedded within a platform) that can operate semi- or fully autonomously.
(c) China’s military-civil fusion (军民融合) development strategy is helping the PLA acquire COTS technologies, both from private Chinese technology companies and sources outside of China.
- Most of the PLA’s AI equipment suppliers are not state-owned defense enterprises, but private Chinese tech companies founded after 2010.
- Although most suppliers are not state-owned, many have benefited from equipment, personnel, information, or capital provided directly or indirectly by the state.
- Of the 273 PLA AI equipment suppliers identified in this study, just 8 percent are named in U.S. export control and sanctions regimes.
- Some Chinese suppliers make a business out of sourcing foreign data or components and reselling them to sanctioned Chinese defense companies and PLA units.
- Lapses in due diligence and situational awareness may permit the Chinese military and defense industry to access capital and technology originating in the United States and partner nations, including advanced computer chips.
3. In summary, these include AI systems designed to identify undersea vehicles, wargame Taiwan operations, track US Navy ships, and deploy electronic countermeasures, among other tasks (see:
Harnessed Lightning —How the Chinese Military is Adopting Artificial Intelligence).
4. IMHO, many Americans have lost touch with reality of China’s desire to improve and their real at sea capability relative to American naval decline. Please read posts in the
Defence of Taiwan thread, for some of my thoughts.
amti.csis.org
