China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

ngatimozart

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Interesting take on PRC behaviour involving the Tokyo Olympics. Their athletes do very well yet they are very petulant about a photo published by Reuters of their gold medalling female weight lifter. The SMH Journo sthat instead of celebrating her success they were acting like spoilt teenagers. He mentioned that they are quite brittle in their own political pysche being hypersensitive to any slights real or imagined. He said that this goes right back to 1949 when they evicted the Koumintung from the mainland. I would almost suggest that it's an inferiority complex, but it isn't.


If Madam Mao was the successor, would China ever have been given WTO status? Would greedy Western corporations been able to pump billions into China and sacrificed their IP rights. Instead of an emerging superpower perhaps another inefficient “Soviet Union” would have resulted. China would still be a significant threat but certainly not what we have today. Mao’s significant other probably wouldn’t have pleased the Russians either.
It's hard to say. It may have happened further along the track but the PRC could've turned out to be another North Korea writ large and that may have been far worse.
 

STURM

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Was watching a talk by an author/expert on Stalin. He mentions how it was ingrained in the Soviet Communist mindset that smaller neighbouring states has to be either colonised or turned into satellite states because they were vulnerable to being used by much larger and mote powerful states to undermine Soviet interests. According to him when Putin mentioned that the Ukraine isn’t a state: this is what he had in mind.

I guess it can be argued that a similar way of thinking or paranoia drives how China conducts its dealings with various states in South East Asia and explains why China offers certain states economic packages which binds then to China. What is puzzling is why China also does certain things which only serves to drive states closer to the U.S: the complete opposite of what it should be doing.
 

STURM

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It's hard to say. It may have happened further along the track but the PRC could've turned out to be another North Korea writ large and that may have been far worse.
As in much more authoritarian or eventually having a leader who isn’t accountable to anyone?

I doubt it. China has various dynamics at play which on paper prevents it from being another North Korea.
 

cdxbow

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Interesting article in Foreign Affairs by Kevin Rudd (ex Aussie PM) on how the CCP / PRC is concerned by the Quad. He argues that when the Quad was reactivated in 2017 Beijing just saw it as another talk fest that going to go nowhere, so they weren't concerned about it and treated it with a bit of derision. In 2019 when the Quad was formalised Beijing was taken aback and started to take it seriously. It now sees the Quad as a threat to its geopolitical and geostrategic plans.

Using its carrot and stick strategy Beijing attempted to offer carrots to India and Japan. However after the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers othe the Lof Control between India and the PRC, has hardened India's resolve against the PRC and it's moved from a previous position of being tactful with the Beijing because of trade concerns, to now being openly assertive against Beijing's behaviour. Japan basically rebuffed Beijing's carrots. Beijing's stick was used against Australia with its trade war against Australia. However that's basically back fired.

Beijing is concerned that the Quad will share intelligence that they have gained about it with FVEY, forgetting that 2 members of the Quad are part of FVEY. They are also considering applying to join the CPTTP, but it is possible the member nations may not want them. Beijing is also concerned that the Quad could turn into something larger that will be considerably more formidable to thwart.

My basic feeling about the Quad can be expressed by the words of Benjamin Franklin when he said, “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately”. Gave me joy to see the PRC are becoming concerned about the Quad.

As STURM says above, the PRC has driven other nations into the arms of the USA by their behavior. I think the dumbest things the PRC have done of late was the attack at Galwan Valley, galvanizing India and helping the Quad get legs. A real tipping point.

I don't think the Quad will moderate the PRC behavior or rhetoric, President Xi has set his course and unfortunately force may be the only thing that will change it.
 

OPSSG

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PLA’s Southern Theatre Command Army and Eastern Theatre Command Army

1. As I mentioned before, on 31 December 2015, China began a major overhaul of its structure military organizational structure. This included the abolition of the seven previous Military Regions (军区) and the creation of five Theatre Commands.

2. The threat PLA presents by two of the five Theater Commands is not just in their troop numbers but its air and naval support (on top of army logistics enablers and artillery support present in each of these Group Armies in the Theatre Commands).
(a) Singapore’s 3rd Singapore Division and 1st Commando Battalion, completed a 10-day commando exercise (from 27 July to 5 August 2019) that involved 240 personnel from the PLA’s 74th Army Group. PLA Commander Southern Theatre Command Army (STCA), Lieutenant-General Zhang Jian, co-officiated at the 2019 closing ceremony.​
(b) The 74th Army Group – based in Huizhou, is less than 100 km north of HK. A retired PLA colonel told HK reporters that if the situation in the city became pressing, a substantial number of troops would quickly cross the border to reinforce the PLA garrison there to restore order.​
3. The Southern Air Force Theater commands a number of large units equipped with Su-27s, J-11s and J-10s. Over the years, we have seen pictures of H-6Ks flying over Scarborough Shoal (黄岩岛). A common accompanying statement trumpeted the PLAAF’s ability to conduct long range strikes. Though not confirmed by the reports, the bombers’ identification numbers appear to indicate that it belongs to the 8th Bomber Division, 24th Air Regiment of Leiyang, Hunan.
(a) In an interview, a previous commander, Lieutenant-General Wang Jiaocheng, described the STCA as “guarding the motherland’s Southern gate” and as having “shouldered the important mission of protecting [China’s] interests in the South China Sea.”​
(b) The STCA is particularly important in the aftermath of the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, as it is the PLA’s organizational sub-unit directly responsible for enforcing China’s claims of sovereignty. The PLA Navy’s South Fleet continues to receive a higher proportion of advanced destroyers such as the Type 052D and Type 055.​

4. The 72nd Group Army, is one of three active group armies belonging to the Eastern Theatre Command. The army is based at Huzhou, Zhejiang. It has priority status in terms of readiness, and new equipment. It is seen as equally important as 74th Army Group. The 72nd Group Army is composed of:
(a) the 1st Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Division;​
(b) an armoured division (supported by divisional artillery) — comprising of armoured brigades that are armed with the Type-99A MBT, Type-04A IFV, and the Type-09 8x8s. The acquisition of these new MBTs, IFVs and 8x8s demonstrated PLA’s commitment to heavy force modernization;​
(c) a motorized infantry brigade to provide rear area security for the forward divisions (described in (a) and (b) above);​
(d) an engineer regiment; and​
(e) an air defense brigade.​
 
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hauritz

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My basic feeling about the Quad can be expressed by the words of Benjamin Franklin when he said, “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately”. Gave me joy to see the PRC are becoming concerned about the Quad.
While we are talking famous quotes this is one attributable to Napolean Bonaparte about 200 years ago.

“Let China Sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”

Wish someone had paid a little more attention to that one about 50 years ago.
 

cdxbow

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While we are talking famous quotes this is one attributable to Napolean Bonaparte about 200 years ago.

“Let China Sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”

Wish someone had paid a little more attention to that one about 50 years ago.
True.
It's all so easy looking back with the retrospectoscope.
I hope the whole ultranationalist neofascist thing is just a phase and it doesn't have to play out like last century.
 

ngatimozart

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True.
It's all so easy looking back with the retrospectoscope.
I hope the whole ultranationalist neofascist thing is just a phase and it doesn't have to play out like last century.
I have my doubts because it works tthe ruling elites advantages, by keeping their bank accounts healthy, any opposition thoroughly suppressed, and the great hairy unwashed duly cowed and submissive. It allows them to divert attention from real domestic problems to real and imaged external problems, releasing any pent up social tensions as nationalistic fervour against foreign devils. The MSS (Ministry of State Security) still has a considerably larger budget than the whole of the PLA.

Just to give you an idea of how good the MSS is. The GDR Ministerium für Staats Seicherheits, the Stasi, is widely accepted as the most efficient and effective dictatorship political police force. Well ahead of the Gestapo and the KGB. The Stasi were the ones who went out and trained the others like the Cubans, Zimbabweans, Iraqis etc. The MSS come in a close second because they now have technology that Erich Meilke, the most effective and feared head of the Stasi, could only dream about.
 

Musashi_kenshin

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I have my doubts because it works tthe ruling elites advantages, by keeping their bank accounts healthy, any opposition thoroughly suppressed, and the great hairy unwashed duly cowed and submissive.
The irony is that much of the Chinese elite feel they need to move their families and assets overseas, prepare exit strategies for themselves so they can leave at the last minute, etc.

It's almost like they don't trust China's current political strategy.
 

ngatimozart

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The irony is that much of the Chinese elite feel they need to move their families and assets overseas, prepare exit strategies for themselves so they can leave at the last minute, etc.

It's almost like they don't trust China's current political strategy.
Hasn't worked to well for a lot of them has it? Jack Ma has disappeared and Alibaba is now under Party control. The elites only move freely if they aren't on Xi's hit list. The MSS and CCP have long arms and can and do threaten and control PRC citizens and others outside of the PRC. You never fully get away.
 

Musashi_kenshin

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Hasn't worked to well for a lot of them has it?
"We have always hated [insert name of public figure]."

Everyone in China is fine until they're not. No doubt Chinese nationalists who previously said Jack Ma was great have found reasons to do an about face and claim he now deserves everything he's getting.

Just like Sun Yang. Everyone loved him, and then without shame the Chinese internet turned on him as soon as his appeals had been exhaused, despite the fact until then they'd said he was innocent.
 

weaponwh

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The irony is that much of the Chinese elite feel they need to move their families and assets overseas, prepare exit strategies for themselves so they can leave at the last minute, etc.

It's almost like they don't trust China's current political strategy.
thats because alot elite in china are corrupt, so they need an exit plan in case anti-corruption hit them. example, one of my wife friends friend they got quite a bit investment for restaurant in US, but the restaurant doesn't make profit, its front end for launder $$$ from various elites in china.
2nd reason most elite or chinese prefer move to west due to higher living standard, housing,etc etc but this is not due to ccp more just investment/better living etc. same reason why rich indian/other foreigner migrant to US.
most chinese envy western live style, the big house/cheaper auto/ cheaper luxury product /better higher education etc etc. so given the chance, most prefer move up the ladder.
Xi own daughter was educated in Harvard, and ill bet Xi's family relative have asset in US. funny how most these elite relative are billionaire or multi millionaire
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

I don't know if this's appropriate putting in here. However since this thread talking about the Geopolitical China, and this project constitute part of their Road and Belt policy, I suppose it's still can be appropriate.

I have some colleagues from SOE Banks that being seconded on this project. Unofficially they're saying the reasons on ballooning cost, part coming from Indonesian side (on land acquisition), however also from Chinese side on calculating the Project costs. This's first time China doing this kind of project on tropical condition. That's part of cost ballooning.

However what I'm getting from them also interesting. China beat Japan due to costing and financing factor. Japan which already have more experience on Indonesian infrastructure Projects already calculate the ballooning cost factor that China face in this project.

I personally from beginning already think politics talk more, when China beat Japan on the project. Seems now many in this administration begin to look more with Japan or South Korea rather than China for next infrastructure Projects, including extension on high speed train routes.

Just an example where Countries need to be more careful when dealing with China on Projects.
 

ngatimozart

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China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin complains that Australia is bullying China. IT’S YOUR FAULT: China lashes out at ‘bullying’ Australia (yahoo.com) He further strengthen his comedic credentials, managing to deliver the following line with a straight face:

"The label of so-called "economic coercion" can never be pinned on to China"

He could get a gig at a comedy festival.
One has to wonder what Minister Wang has been partaking of. Definitely not sodium pentathol. They are looking like that they could considering upping the ante. That could backfire on them though, especially if Australia withheld iron ore exports to China. That would be a gamble on Australia's part but would at the same time call the Chinese bluff and cause much cramping in their bowels.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

I don't know if this's appropriate putting in here. However since this thread talking about the Geopolitical China, and this project constitute part of their Road and Belt policy, I suppose it's still can be appropriate.

I have some colleagues from SOE Banks that being seconded on this project. Unofficially they're saying the reasons on ballooning cost, part coming from Indonesian side (on land acquisition), however also from Chinese side on calculating the Project costs. This's first time China doing this kind of project on tropical condition. That's part of cost ballooning.

However what I'm getting from them also interesting. China beat Japan due to costing and financing factor. Japan which already have more experience on Indonesian infrastructure Projects already calculate the ballooning cost factor that China face in this project.

I personally from beginning already think politics talk more, when China beat Japan on the project. Seems now many in this administration begin to look more with Japan or South Korea rather than China for next infrastructure Projects, including extension on high speed train routes.

Just an example where Countries need to be more careful when dealing with China on Projects.
That whole Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Train is a useless prestige project, created by chinaloving politicians. The existing train service between Jakarta and Bandung is absolutely good enough. It was better if they spent more money on the Jakarta–Cikampek Elevated Toll Road, in order to deliver a decent quality elevated toll road. Even after all those corrective operations it is now still bumpy and uncomfortable to use it.

Big chance that they use this project as a reason to spend even less on Indonesian development in aerospace, science and defence.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The existing train service between Jakarta and Bandung is absolutely good enough
High speed train line actually will only be economically viable for Jakarta-Surabaya routes. It's Indonesia two biggest cities, and the length have similarities with Tokyo-Osaka routes.

Japanese consultant already calculate that, that's why Japanese not really interested with high speed rail if only between Jakarta-Bandung. For that they put higher cost (which now prove to be right on this Chinese High Speed train project).

Well you know who wants to put Chinese as the winner. Basically I want to see how they are going to spin this cost ballooning, before become Political issue for next election.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This not Geopolitical news, but it's Geofinancial more precise. This is actually what we in Financial Industry already concerned with, even before COVID. How CCP going to handle China Economy, if the real estate sectors implode.

The sign already happened for few years, with mounting bad debts in property. China always maintain their momentum by continue building infrastructure, which then fuel property boom. Chinese Banks continue collect bad debts from property related Industry, but CCP manage to cover the loss from Banks with multiple incentives.

Can they keep manage to do that if the big 'dragon' developers falling ? That's the billions dollars question.


Additional assesment why this's Big Deal and if not manage carefully, it can be contagious effect to propert sector which represent 50% of China Economy. If property burst, god knows how paranoid CCP do to deflect domestic problem.
 
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InterestedParty

Active Member

This not Geopolitical news, but it's Geofinancial more precise. This is actually what we in Financial Industry already concerned with, even before COVID. How CCP going to handle China Economy, if the real estate sectors implode.

The sign already happened for few years, with mounting bad debts in property. China always maintain their momentum by continue building infrastructure, which then fuel property boom. Chinese Banks continue collect bad debts from property related Industry, but CCP manage to cover the loss from Banks with multiple incentives.

Can they keep manage to do that if the big 'dragon' developers falling ? That's the billions dollars question.


Additional assesment why this's Big Deal and if not manage carefully, it can be contagious effect to propert sector which represent 50% of China Economy. If property burst, god knows how paranoid CCP do to deflect domestic problem.
There may be an issue of concern for the CCP in that the average Chinese investor has believed that investing is a can't lose proposition. What happens when possibly hundreds of thousands of small investors lose their nest egg
 
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