BMP-3s for Venezuela

[nevidimka]

If I'm not mistaken, the decision to buy BMP's was done b4 the loan was given. So I think they have adequate funds for the BMP's without the loan.

 

[Feanor]

They have adequate funds for practically any purchases they want to make. I honestly still have a hard time understanding what the loan is for.

 

[Gladius]

They have adequate funds for practically any purchases they want to make. I honestly still have a hard time understanding what the loan is for.

¿Are you sure?

Because some Financial Analyst (like Deutsche Bank...) are rising many concerns about the capacity of Venezuela to balance the national budget if the continuous rising of spends and the dropping oil prices continues.

Link to an article published by The Universal quoting Reuters release about that. (English Language)

So perhaps they were thinking in that when the Chavez government brokered the Russian loan. :unknown

 

[Feanor]

Oil prices really started dropping very recently due to the crisis. I do think that the loan may now be hard to repay in some sense, but I don't think that it could have been worked in originally. Especially when he allegedly plans to spend 30 billion on military purchases over the next years.

 

[Beatmaster]

Wow

Venezuala is able to buy all these toy's?
Perhaps its a little off topic but one question comes up:
If Venezuela uses the 1 bil credit and get the hole package discribed in previouse post what kind of impact would that have for the regional balance and stability, because Chaves is not the "perfect neigtbour" and if they get these tanks planes and other stuff you guys have posted here than that could be a major problem for everyone near Venezuela not to mention for the US and EU.
Chaves is now a pretty little player when it comes to his army but with these new toy's he will be alot more powerfull and can put more meaning into his words right?

Anyway iam deeply impressed

 

[Marc 1]

Wow

Venezuala is able to buy all these toy's?
Perhaps its a little off topic but one question comes up:
If Venezuela uses the 1 bil credit and get the hole package discribed in previouse post what kind of impact would that have for the regional balance and stability, because Chaves is not the "perfect neigtbour" and if they get these tanks planes and other stuff you guys have posted here than that could be a major problem for everyone near Venezuela not to mention for the US and EU.
Chaves is now a pretty little player when it comes to his army but with these new toy's he will be alot more powerfull and can put more meaning into his words right?

Anyway iam deeply impressed

Meh, petty populist tinpot dictator already finding that despite swimming in oil he cannot buy all his toys and keep his people happy. He'll grow to resent his people as he and his cronies grow richer, then a state of seige will ensue where he will become increasingly distant and resentful of the people he vowed to 'liberate' eventually depending on how long Chauvez keeps the military happy a coup will occur and it will happen all again. Along the way there may be a minor war or skirmish (Falklands conflict was an attempt by the Argentine Junta to do something to try and raise their falling popularity - they picked the wrong nation to trifle with however). Unfortunately, we've seen it all before, for the Venezualan people I hope I'm wrong but particularly with the oil price going south and the local oil being more difficult and expensive to process the indications so far is that it will end in tears.

These military toys will become increasingly unservicable, and obselete, 'till they will be useless. Chauvez will come to realise that the money would better have been ploughed into infrastructure and welfare and development of his people, rather than thinking that he can posture and poke pins at the US. Chauvez forgets that its no longer the 1950's and Communism/socialism has failed (not that the capitalist system is standing as a shining example at the mo).

 

[Human Bass]

The venezuelan gov is totally corrupted, bloated and inefficient. It runs on the base of political indication and corporativism, with near zero meritocracy. The country has high inflation and supermarket shelves are constantly empty. With the fall of oil prices, I dont give more than 4 years to the implosion of its economy.

 

[Human Bass]

So yeah, i know here isnt a political forum, but what I said affects the military. If there is no meritocracy, it means that must venezuelan officials are promoted mainly for sharing similar political views and that competency is not a big matter. Also in highly corrupted enviroments, the maintenance suffers the most, I bet those shiny Sukhoys will start to face some nasty mechanical failure just for the lack of maintenance. Venezuela army is becoming a "look at my shiny toys" army, what is a deadly mistake for themselves.

 

[Feanor]

I disagree. Chavez for one is not a dictator, he was elected, and he has backed down when his Constitutional amendements were voted down. He has weathered one attempted coup, and as long as he relinquishes power when his terms are up I think he is not a dictatorial government. Don't get anti-Americanism and authoritarianism confused.

Now as for military maintenance, I know that a service and maintenance center for the Sukhois has been established by Rosoboroneksport. In terms of infrastructure, the construction of the AK-103/4 factory has begun, as has the construction of a training and testing facility for those weapons.

 

[StevoJH]

I disagree. Chavez for one is not a dictator, he was elected, and he has backed down when his Constitutional amendements were voted down. He has weathered one attempted coup, and as long as he relinquishes power when his terms are up I think he is not a dictatorial government. Don't get anti-Americanism and authoritarianism confused.

Now as for military maintenance, I know that a service and maintenance center for the Sukhois has been established by Rosoboroneksport. In terms of infrastructure, the construction of the AK-103/4 factory has begun, as has the construction of a training and testing facility for those weapons.

It would be interesting to see how many rifles must be produced at the factory for it to pay for its construction.

 

[nevidimka]

Anther report on what the 1 bill credit is for :

http://www.en.rian.ru/russia/20081015/117751009.html

 

[Feanor]

I'm willing to bet money that the article is based on that original "expert's" guesstimate. I'm not going to hold my breath. Not to mention that tha Igla, and Tor contracts have not been mentioned recently, as opposed to the BMP-3, tank, and transport/tanker buy.

 

[macman]

From the article mentioned, it looks like the BMP-3's are on top of the $1 billion loan for air-defence/tankers, so they'll be paying extra.

Thing is, it seems like too many systems already for the loan :-
"In September, Russia agreed to provide Vemezuela with a $1 billion loan so that Caracas could buy TOR-M1 air defense systems, Igla-S portable SAM systems, Il-78 aerial tankers and Il-76 military cargo aircraft."

That's seems like a lot of hardware for a billion dollars, and they were talking about helicopters as well..


All look like good buys for upgrading the military, but I'd say they are looking at close to another billion for everything.

 

[macman]

Found this at UPI, which sounds about right.

This seems to be pretty much everything the Venezuelan military has on order or is in the process of ordering, although the Igla systems aren't listed..

From Russia:
- 12 more Sukhoi Su-30 "Flanker-C" will be delivered before end of 2009;
- 24 Sukhoi Su-35 "Flanker-E" fighters with delivery starting by 2010;
- between 10 and 12 Mi-28NEs -- Havoc or Night Hunter -- helicopters;
- 10 Ilyushin IL-76E (NATO designation Candid) troop/cargo transports;
- two Ilyushin IL-78 (NATO designation Midas) in-flight tankers with the capacity to refuel three aircraft simultaneously;
- between 20 and 30 TOR-M1 9M330 air defense missile systems;
- at least three diesel-powered Varshavyanka (NATO designation Kilo) class submarines.
- between 50 and 100 Russian-built T-90 battle tanks;
- at least 100 Russian-made light tanks and armored fighting vehicles;
- and up to 400 BMP-3 armored personnel carriers.

From China:
- 24 Chinese-made K-8 light attack aircraft (training);
- 10 long-range JYL-1 radars 9 (3 recieved & operating);
"The air force expects to achieve almost 100 percent radar coverage of Venezuela's national territory by 2013 when all 10 radars are installed and operational."

From Spain:
"Spain's Navantia shipyard at Cadiz is building eight seagoing vessels for Venezuela's navy, including four coastal patrol boats -- 39 dwt -- equipped with a helicopter deck aft and Oerlikon Contraves DMN 0008 Millennium 35mm anti-aircraft guns. But Venezuelan navy officials say the patrol boats probably also could be armed with air and anti-ship missiles, or heavier guns forward.

The other four vessels Navantia is building are missile-capable frigates which Venezuelan navy officials describe as "similar in design" to Venezuela's Italian-made Lupo frigates, which have been in use for about 30 years."

_http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2008/10/31/Chavez_goes_on_arms_spending_spree_with_Russia_China/UPI-83411225493725/

Seems like a very robust, well planned regional military force, if it all comes off, although I'd think more choppers (Mi 17 armoured transport variant) & Igla's would be better.

 

[ROCK45]

Source

Hi macman
A friend mentioned to the added Flankers to be delivered in 2009 but was never able to find a source to confirm that. The other thing you mention in your post was the Su-35s to start delivers in 2010. I thought there still being tested and the second prototype just took flight so wouldn't the 2010 date be a bit early? Can you provide a link to your sources? I just can't find anything about those 2009 Flankers anywhere, thanks

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon7.gif

 

[Feanor]

Macman the list lists contracts that aren't signed yet, and certainly have no delivery dates. The Su-35BM can delivered at earliest by 2011. Many of the other deals are highly questionable (like the Kilo class sub deal which has been talked about for a while but nothing has come of it).

 

[macman]

The link was this one:
_http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2008/10/31/Chavez_goes_on_arms_spending_spree_with_Russia_Chi na/UPI-83411225493725/

Writer was JOHN SWEENEY, a journalist/analyst with UPI, who are generally pretty good - this report was from Venezuela according to the byline

You've got to register for UPI, but it's free - just need an email address.

UPI security reports are at:
_http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/

 

[Feanor]

Hmm. I've found the same list here: http://www.russodaily.com/reports/Analysis_Venezuelas_huge_arms_buildup_999.html

Which doesn't lend it any credibility, as I know that the site I linked to is often mis-citing numbers. I'm going to do a little more digging on just how many Flankers are on order. The Su-35BM deal has not yet been signed. That I'm sure of.

EDIT: Well it looks like it's 24 after all.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080804/115619889.html
http://www.russianspy.org/2006/11/30/russia-sends-su-30-fighters-to-venezuela/
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080530/108844389.html
http://www.inforos.com/?id=13128
http://www.defenceaviation.com/2008/08/russian-su-30-fighter-planes-arrive-in.html
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htairfo/articles/20070714.aspx
http://defense-technologynews.blogspot.com/2008/08/russian-su-30-fighter-planes-arrive-in.html
http://www.derechos.org/nizkor/venezuela/doc/rusven9.html

Here's a little on the Su-35BM

Market Analysis: Su-35 Export Potential

Sukhoi/KnAAPO primarily regard the Su-35 as an export product. They have estimated to produce at least 300 Su-35 fighters, which seems a bit optimistic considering the global fighter market with its complicated political factors and competitors. Potential customers have been known to include Brazil and various countries subject to (potential) US and/or European embargo including Venezuela, Syria and Libya. Because the Su-35 solely relies on Russian equipment, it should be able to easily compete for orders by these countries as almost all rivals contain US or European technology. Even its main rival the Irkut-built Su-30MKI features French, Israeli and Indian equipment.

Although China was reported to have threathened to offer the J-11B/BS Chinese-developed Flanker copies for export not too long ago, more recent reports suggest the Su-35 has been included in planned talks concerning further military cooperation with China. With China as a customer for the Su-35, the envisaged 300 aircraft might become reality.

But the most promising prospected buyer for the new Su-35 is Venezuela. Venezuela has expressed interest in the Su-35 to supplement its fleet of 24 Su-30MK2 delivered in 2006-2008, enabling the FAV to retire its ageing Mirage 50 fleet. Unless Venezuela decides to part with KnAAPO and invest in the development of a 'pure' Russian Su-30MKI derivative, the Su-35 will easily prove superior to Venezuela's only alternative; additional Su-30MK2.

Brazil is thought to had shortlisted the Su-35 (Su-27M) in its 2001 F-X program to select a future fighter for its air force. Postponed before completion and subsequently cancelled in early 2005, Brazil relaunched its tender for 36 new fighters in 2008, dubbed F-X2. Total requirement has been stated to be 120 aircraft to be delivered from 2014 onwards. Although considered in the first round of the selection process based on RFI comparisons, the Su-35 did not make it to the second round. This represents the first lost opportunity for the new Su-35. Brazil will make its final decision between Dassault's Rafale, Saab's Gripen Next Generation and Boeing's Super Hornet Block II next year.

Syria has been looking at new Russian weapons recently, including the Su-30MK2 and even the possibility of acquiring new-built MiG-31 air defense fighters. Moscow's recent arms export policy with regards to the Middle East only allows 'defensive' weapons to be supplied to Syria. Additionally MiG-29 upgrades seem to be higher on the Syrian agenda. Thus a potential order for new multi-role Su-35s still seems far away. Syria is also believed to be limited in funds, making the MiG-35 and Su-30MK2 more likely candidates.

Having restored its political ties with France Libya had expressed interest in purchasing a limited number of Rafales. Also the US aerospace industry is likely to enter the market with the expiring of the US embargo, whether this will lead to any US fighters being offered for sale remains to be seen. The country can certainly be considered as a potential buyer as the Su-35 is believed to be much cheaper than its Western rivals. However it requires a comparatively limited number of aircraft.

If the new Su-35 market unfolds like that of the Su-30MK multi-role Flankers, more potential customers are likely to emerge soon. But at this time, the potential market size for heavy Russian jets seems to be rather limited, which is perhaps one of the reasons why Sukhoi also wants the Russian Air Force to acquire Su-35s.
Domestic Market

Although Sukhoi considers the Su-35 as mainly an export product, plans have been revealed that call for a domestic version to be used by the Russian Air Force. The domestic version will of course feature local IFF, electronic warfare and communication systems. Interestingly the RuAF version will reportedly re-use the Su-37 designation [Butowski, 2008, p.55]. However as Piotr Butowski [2008] also pointed out, the Russian procurement budget for 2007-2015 does not provide funding for the acquisition of new fighter aircraft. Only provisions have been made for PAK-FA development and the Su-27SM upgrade program of the existing fleet of Su-27s, for which similar equipment as embodied in the Su-35 is being offered for the second stage, designated Su-27SM2. Having been introduced to the new Su-35 and also MiG-35, Putin suggested a revision of the defence procurement budget to include these new aircraft. At the moment it remains unclear whether this will materialize in orders for new-built airframes or just firm orders for the Su-27SM2 upgrade.

In addition to a proposed upgrade of the Russian Navy's Su-33 fleet based on the Su-27SM2, it is also possible that a proposal for a new-built ship-borne Su-33 variant will emerge based on the Su-35 as one of the options to equip the Navy's future carriers.

http://www.milavia.net/aircraft/su-35/su-35.htm

I did run into several other forums citing the UPI article and even quoting the whole text of it. So in my opinion UPI is just wrong.

 

[Luis-Cuba]

Venezuelan member

Im realy proud that my country has began to modernize their Military. I would realy like to see them have the strongest military in south america . But i dont want to see those forces used for bad intentions. I think the t90s would be the best choice for the venezuelan army as its mbt. Its easy to maintain and is a formidible foe on the battle field. The sukoihs were the best choice for the airforce. He just needs to get those pilots well trained to handle them. I also think the venezuelan basic army training could use some improvment. Some more highend anti air assets should be a primary concern to protect the oil feilds. Also Russian military bases on venezuelan soil would boost its fighting potential 5x.

 

[Twister]

Well, good for Venezuela but still early to say Venezuel armed forces is the strongest or most capable in Latin America.

Even all asset & equipment completely deliver, army personel need at least 2 years to mastering all newly Soviet/Russian made asset & equipment since Venezuela Armed Forces has a little experience in handling it.

BMP-3, armed with 100mm maingun, 30mm secondary gun and 12.7mm for 3rd gun is the best and most suitable IFV for Venezuela Army. Also, BMP-3 has been accepted as rugged IFV and suitable operating in tropical terrain.