Australian Infantry Corps capability needs
AUSTRALIA’S INFANTRY BATTALIONS [AFTER 2015]
One of the problems we have is that we don't have a strategy.
Essentially Australia has followed US strategy since 1960s, whatever that may be (based generally on the US perception of the role and value of liberal-economic democratic ideology), and deploying troops as part of alliance commitments rather then in any coherent strategic way (i.e. to support national purpose, whatever that is).
Part of the problem is that our only current immediatge threat can only come from Indonesia. However currently Indonesia does not represent a significant threat. Even during East Timor deployment there was not a significant threat of even low level of combat with regular Indonesian troops.
However the issue of ADF planning (or any force planning) is, that it works on several complex cycles.
Firstly there is the
personnel cycle.
Defence forces are primarily about having people willing to put their life at risk based on order from Government. Availability of such individuals with the right skills is becoming tighter although maybe not in the infantry given an earlier post on current recruiting.
Recruiting is itself subject to national economic cycles which come in multiples of 7 year business cycles for a total of about 50 years each. Australia is currently in its 3rd business cycle of the 5th long cycle (unadjusted) in its history since 1788. Australian employment being at 95%, or 85% considering those who would like to convert from casual to full time employment, there is not much spare capacity for recruiting.
This brings me to the
equipment cycle.
Life of type dictates to a large degree the capability to follow a given strategy. For example, following purchase of amphibious vessels Australia is expected to have a capability to deploy brigade-sized intervention force by sea (in a single lift) for at least 40 years (before refit). This substantially changes the strategic policy. However this strategy is still tied to US strategy because the force can not be deployed without air cover, and the RAN will not have capability to deploy ship based aircraft to protect the amphibious force when deployed despite the availability of AWDs for transit protection.
Even if Australia is to have a brigade for commitment to combat, the best way to use such a force is in relatively short deployments of 3-4 months rotations, and 6 months at most. Vietnam has shown that 12 month deployments take a very severe psychological toll on the personnel.
To maintain annual rotations of a brigade, 3-4 active brigades are required.
The eight battalion listed, if augmented with a tank battalion, only provide for two such brigades (assuming the tank battalions' crews will rotate through same vehicles) since the 4RAR is really a part of the 6 Brigade.
This means that the Reserve brigades would play a full combat deployment role in future combat (as opposed to peacekeeping) commitments.
Keep in mind that IF such a commitment is made in future, the defence of Australia (the other major commitment) would also require concurrent 3-4 brigades at a minimum.
In fact this means that Australia needs two very different forces, with very different capabilities, for a combined total of (comfortable) 6-8 combat brigades and 2 theatre support brigades (one domestic and one overseas). This does not include the 6th Special Operations brigade (partial; internal security role), the 16th Aviation brigade, or the (10th ?) Command brigade units (CLF). The 8 (ideal) combat brigades (assuming one recon squadron, three manoeuvre battalions and one artillery battalion as major units) would require 24 infantry battalions (half Reserve), 8 recce squadrons (half Reserve), 8 artillery battalions (half Reserve), and two 3-squadron (18 tank each) battalions (half Reserve to allow vehicle rotation at least once every 6 months; would require purchase of additional tanks).
The above is a ‘dream land’ thinking since the ADF just doesn’t have the capability to expand recruiting to this level on current posture policy and with current budget!
And there is more.
While many nations in our region of interest employ Bushmaster-like vehicles, they are mostly used for internal security duties! Few have wheeled combat vehicles, and most now have IFVs as part of their combat infantry corps, even if they are 3rd-hand BMP-1s.
However I will have a BMP-1 manufactured in the 60s over a Bushmaster when it comes to combat any time. Given it is maintained, aside from added mobility provided by the tracks, it mounts a 73mm weapon with an effective range to do in any Bushmaster that mounts only a 7.62mm MG. Many countries in the region MANUFACTURE their own AFVs, including Iran, India (or trying to), Malaysia (early attempts), China, Taiwan (trying to), South Korea, Singapore, and of course Japan (though not yet exporting). Russian AFVs are readily available, as are Ukranian and Belarus, never mind other former Warsaw Pact countries.
Western European designed AFVs are still a bit pricey for most regional economies, but it is only a matter of time before second-hand AMXs and Marders become available as France and Germany re-equip. A 40-year-old Marder’s cannon will still make Swiss cheese out of a Bushmaster, never mind the use of old Milans. ADF will not be able to rely on the few Tigers for all its intermediate to long range anti-armour needs in a region that doesn’t in general allow for desert-like gunnery ranges to the tank crews.
The Land 400 design will be a major capability upgrade to the Australian Infantry Corps. It will influence Australian strategic policy for at least 40 years from 2015, affecting three generations of servicemen.
The strategic planning view for the Land 400 is therefore quite complex. Not only are we likely to see a less interventionist USA over the next 20 years (based on Vietnam experience 1972-1991), but quite possibly a significant change in regional politico-economic structure that is likely to include regional conflicts, and a major conflict over the next 40 years (the life cycle of many of the incoming ADF equipment systems).
Then there is the impact of integrating the design with other ADF projects, and into the “hardened networked” ADF (not just the Army). Aside from this, it also has to reduce impact of increasing fuel costs, integrating new fuel technologies likely to appear in the next 40 years, and serve both domestic and overseas deployments in all-terrain all-environment high-intensity combat…and do it for 1.5bn with substantial participation of the Australian Industry not attempted since WW2.
It seems to me the Bushmaster is very much a stopgap solution, as is the recruitment of extra 2600 personnel.
Comments welcome