There is this issue, you see.
Ships and aircraft can’t take and hold land, you need boots on the ground.
Ships and troops can’t respond rapidly to threats emerging at a distance; for that you need aircraft.
Aircraft and troops can’t provide persistent armed presence at a distance without host nation support, for that you need ships.
Oh, so what you need is a joint force, capable of providing mutual support, able to communicate and understanding in general terms the doctrine across the battle space.
We might not have enough of any of it, but that sounds like the balanced force the ADF used to be aiming at. Unbalance one bit of that, and at some point you are likely to get bitten.
Spot on.
Arguably the ADF is unbalanced already and has been for a long time.
Gut feeling we still don't have enough heavy armour, or combat aircraft, but definately, the most glaring deficiency is with the navy.
Ukraine shows how quickly ground equipment can be delivered and new units raised, not ideal by any means, but doable.
The acquisition of the F/A-18F, then G as well as the comparatively swift acquisition of P-8, C-17, and Blackhawk, shows that new and replacement aircraft can be acquired surprisingly quickly.
With the RAN however MFUs take years. You may be lucky and get a surplus Amphib or tanker, maybe a yard starved of work could fit in an accelerated build of AORs, but it is still several years, not a several months or a couple of years.
Combatants, well they take years, often over a decade, whether built locally or overseas.
Acquisition and force levels need to be planned around this. In fact, with land and air, jumping too soon has resulted in too much money being spent on too much of the wrong, or obsolescent gear.
The RAAF is doing a good job now, but our political classes saw them with large fleets of obsolescent equipment going into multiple wars. What was perfectly good enough five, ten or fifteen years earlier was a death sentence for crews had there been a hot war in the last decade of service. From memory in the early 80s the AIM-9 B and 30mm Aden ammo had lifed out and the Mirage fleet had no air to air capability at all. So at a period the type should been phasing out of service, it was being upgraded with Matra Magics. Sort of sounds like the RANs current situation.
Old and Bolds have told me that by the time the Centurions retired, (many of them being second hand UK vehicles) their armour had become brittle and ineffective. That said, the M-113, first slated for replacement in the 80s, is only now scheduled to be replaced. They have not been deployable for years.
Obsolescence and under investment has always been an issue. Structure has always been a problem. Governments of all shades are guilty of unbalancing the ADF, often through not having a strategy of what it is intended to do.
This is why I admire and miss leaders such as Beazley and to be honest, Frazer, in defence. They conducted real reviews, put out real numbers, their plans faded after they moved on, but at least the saw, realised and articulated.
Many are familiar with Beazley, but Frazer was proposing twenty three destroyers and frigates, with three carriers, in a two ocean navy.
He is the one who, when the F-111 was in trouble and facing cancellation, pointed out that although it was expensive the only alternative to gain the required capability was three squadrons with 36 F-4E, supported by squadrons of 6 RF-4C, 6 F-4G and 6 KC-135.
That is an impressive force and would have been a great addition to the ADF, but imagine the oportunity cost. Future government would have whittled down the Mirage numbers, there may have been no Hornets. The carrier likely would have gone earlier, Amazon's instead of FFGs and Army would likely kiss good bye to tanks.
That's what we need today, political leaders who have a sufficient understanding to see where high end capabilities are more cost effective than additional numbers, where numbers are critical and when support capabilities bring more than their cost, and where introducing them will cost needed capability elsewhere.